Could Louis Varland’s Emergence Lead to a Jhoan Duran Trade?

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

Jhoan Duran has been lights-out for the Minnesota Twins in 2025. Despite a dip in velocity from years past, he’s thrived as the team’s closer, locking down late-inning leads with a 0.95 ERA and the second-highest WPA on the roster, at 1.6. His dominance was rightfully recognized when he was named the American League Reliever of the Month in May.

For a contending team with playoff aspirations, trading such a dominant weapon out of the bullpen seems counterintuitive, even reckless. But the Twins may be in a rare position of strength to consider it—not because Duran has lost anything, but because someone else has found something.

Louis Varland, once a fringe starter, has emerged as a bullpen stud. For the first time in a full-time relief role this season, Varland has been electric. His fastball regularly hits 99 MPH, and his knuckle curve is generating a whopping 41% whiff rate. Since May began, he’s pitched in the third-highest leverage spots in the bullpen, and he owns a 2.54 ERA with a 33:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s no longer just a promising arm. He’s one of the most dominant relievers in the Twins bullpen, and flashing that dominance in big-time spots.

So if the Twins can trust Varland (along with Griffin Jax) to handle the ninth inning, could they afford to deal Duran to address a glaring need on the offensive side of the roster? Although shocking on the surface, it's a question worth digging into. The Twins offense has sputtered, and any path toward adding impact bats at the trade deadline comes with risk. They could deal from their farm system, but that’s a tough sell with the team’s ownership situation in flux. Do you really want to trade away cost-controlled prospects when you don’t even know who’ll be signing the checks next year?

They could explore moving a starting pitcher, as Cody Christie recently suggested with Chris Paddack. But with the riskiness of starting pitching injuries and how valuable the Twins’ rotation has been, that feels like an unnecessary gamble. Certainly, this week's unfortunate Pablo López news highlights that. The third, perhaps most logical option, is to trade from the bullpen, the one area of true organizational depth.

Of course, trading Duran would create a domino effect. Everyone else in the bullpen would have to move up a rung. But the Twins have effectively built a unit deep enough to handle it. Cole Sands and Brock Stewart have both earned trust in key situations. Danny Coulombe is set to return soon. Beyond them, the front office could create another Louis Varland out of a minor-league starter like Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, or Connor Prielipp, all of whom profile as potential weapons in short stints down the stretch of the regular season.

There’s also the financial reality. Duran is making more than $4 million this year, and that number could exceed $7 million next season in arbitration. If the Twins aren’t planning to hang onto him at that cost (and there’s no guarantee they will), this could be the moment to flip a valuable asset for a hitter who can help both now and in the future.

Losing Duran wouldn’t be easy. But with Varland thriving, Jax dominating (1.50 ERA and a 31/3 K/BB over his last 19 appearances), and the bullpen pipeline stocked with arms, it might be a move the Twins can afford to make. Especially if it brings in a bat that finally balances this lineup and helps push the team to another level.

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What do you think? Could Louis Varland's emergence allow the Twins to trade Jhoan Duran? Would you make that deal for the right bat, or is Duran simply too valuable to this roster? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Who is this bat that you speak of?

[mickster]

Not a good idea.   A strong bullpen is key in the league today.   Royals won a WS with a shutdown pen years ago............starters don't go over 6 today so keeping this group in-tact is crucial.

[UK Twin]

No is the short answer, or at least not yet. If they do trade Duran it will be in the offseason. Our bullpen is elite and Duran is a big reason for that. 

[djvang]

No. Just no.

[Brett]

Replacing Pablo with Festa will create additional strain on the bullpen while he is out. Subtracting Duran creates less space for error, unless the bat returned in a trade gooses the entire offense. Not sure who that would be, though.

[Muppet]

The problem I see isn't that the Twins lack a good bat in the lineup. Its that they lack several good bats in the lineup. So, while it would be exciting to trade away Duran for a good hitter, I'm not sure the impact will be enough. If I pick a random type of player we might hope to get for a Duran, we can look at someone like Brandon Lowe (I just kind of randomly picked a guy based on numbers, don't know about tradability, salary, etc). He's got good power and plays a position that could replace Brandon Lee, one of the teams worst hitters. Lowe might produce 10-20 more runs than Lee, but when you also subtract the handful of extra losses we get for NOT having Duran, I'm not sure it is worth it. When the Twins lose, it is usually because they fail to score several runs in a game, not one or two. 

So, yes, a Duran trade could help the Twins win 2-3 more games this year, but unless they got in a huge haul, I'm not sure it would make the difference. I bet Tampa still wishes they had Joe Ryan. This could look like that in 3 years. 

[mnfireman]

I keep getting confused as to whether articles like this are satire,,,

[rdehring]

Interesting.  I am not qualified to even begin to have an opinion of whether or not this would be good move.  Trust the Twins front office is qualified, at least I hope like heck they are.

[JBK]

Please.  No.

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Who is this bat that you speak of?

It better be Alex Bregman if they're sending Duran.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Seriously what are we doing here.  Lets trade some of our better players this year because they are doing well.  I am all for accumulating value and assets, but this is just moronic.  If you want to adjust the plan after the season,  or we suddenly start to fall apart and you can get great value I would be ok with it.   

However we seem to have more than enough trade bait if we need something this year.  You have Keashall, Debarge, K. Culpepper, Eeles and Schobel, and I would say Lee that you have ample infield options options for the foreseeable future.  You could easily trade 1 or multiple.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

It better be Alex Bregman if they're sending Duran.

Even with Bregman’s contract uncertainty? That’s hard to deal with. 

[DJL44]

Personally, I think they should be offering Duran a long-term contract. I also think they should have done that in each of the past two off-seasons.

There is no reason to move Duran now because he'll be expensive in 2027. Move him in 2027 if that's the problem.

[Brandon]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It better be Alex Bregman if they're sending Duran.

And paying most of his 40 million salary too! Cause no way we would pay him that here.

[Brandon]

We should absolutely spring a self inflicted leak in our lights out bullpen to try to plug a hole in the offense.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

No offense Matthew, but this is just a terrible idea on several levels. First, there is no evidence that Varland can close. He is improving but still shaky at times. More importantly, we know that Jax CANNOT close because we've tried that and it's failed and failed repeatedly. We also know from experience that Stewart has about 30 innings a year in that arm before he gets hurt. It's great that we're getting them now but the odds of him being an effective reliever after the ASB are not good based on his history. Nothing kills a team faster than giving up leads late. Trading Duran is a recipe for that to happen. 

Second, weakening the pitching staff right when our #1 starter gets hurt is bordering on reckless. I'm hopeful that Festa will be effective but there is no chance that he will give us the number of innings that Lopez does so we are looking at more bullpen usage, not less. I think the Lopez injury makes it more likely that we trade FOR a reliever, not that we trade away a reliever. 

Third, the offensive situation is not as dire as some people seem to think it is. You can't look at season long stats given our previous injuries. Wallner, Buxton, Castro, and Correa are back to full force, Lewis has shown signs of waking up in the last 2 days, and Larnach has shown real improvement. Is this a top 5-7 offense? No, it is not unless Lewis becomes the first half of 2024 Lewis.  But it should be a top half offense if we don't have a major injury. If we do, the trade is from pitching prospect depth, not the trade of a dominant closer. Decent offense backing a solid rotation with a dominant bullpen is a winning recipe as shown by the mid-teens Royals. This team could be that recipe.  

Finally, trading Duran would kill the clubhouse just when the team is feeling better about itself. Trading away one of your best players at a key position sends the "I don't care if we win" message. Moreover, there shouldn't be a financial issue. Money and contract issues may or may not even be an issue in the future because we are supposedly getting a new owner. The days of trading good players to get "value" before they are "too expensive" may be over or at least lessened. 

Unless we are trading Duran for Judge or Ohtani, this is a very, very bad, terrible idea IMHO. Rant over. Have a great day. 

[Dman]

I think the future financial reality is real, but if the Twins stick with Festa and and Matthews next year and you remove Paddacks salary they should easily be able to afford Duran at least another year.  What he can do is pretty rare for a reliever and if I were the Twins I would try and keep the pen strong.

I'm not sure what the Twins could get back as a hitter in a deal for Duran.  If you are looking for a hitter with an OPS of .850 or above there are only 25 of those in all of baseball right now and I doubt teams would be trading any of them for Duran.  Even the next 25 (top50) would take you down to a 800 OPS and most of those guys are stars on other teams.  After that is a bit murky, but maybe you could pry someone loose but it almost has to be a younger guy with years left so that the Twins can afford him and is .750 to .780 OPS all that much better than what we currently have?

For instance (just to cherry pick) would you trade Duran for an .800 OPS bat like Bader?  I think it would be hard to line up on a trade that the Twins would like without going all the way down to prospects which could be pretty dangerous as there is the chance they never make that leap to MLB. and likely wouldn't help the team in near term.

I get where this article is coming from but it seems like a lot of risk to take on for a top 5 to ten reliever in the game.  Maybe there is a deal out there that would make good sense for both teams, but if it were me I would go at least one year with Duran and hopefully two years.,

[Western SD Fan]

In 2025, no way on earth would I trade Duran.  We need him in a bullpen that is likely going to get used a bit more in the next few months.  As for the future, he still has two arbitration years left after 2025.  The best comp for Duran in terms of what we have seen before would be a "poor man's" Josh Hader.  I use that term because Duran has not been used in the same way Hader was, and he does not have the same national coverage that Hader did at similar times in their respective careers.  With that being said, let's look at what the Brewers traded Hader for 2022 as a potential haul for the Twins.  For reference, in 2022, Hader still had 1 year of arbitration left, where Duran will be AFTER the 2026 season

Padres:  Josh Hader

Brewers:  Taylor Rogers RP (our old friend),  Dinelson Lamet (pitcher, now in the Mexican League) and OF Esteury Ruiz (currently in the Dodgers system at AAA-OKC)

This is not exactly a cornucopia of riches for a high-profile hurler that arguably had more value at the time of the trade than a potential Duran trade currently does due to Hader's track record and national recognition.  You're just not going to get someone who will be an upgrade to who we currently have on the roster as expected everyday players.  

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

No, no, no, and no.

[LA Vikes Fan]

16 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

In 2025, no way on earth would I trade Duran.  We need him in a bullpen that is likely going to get used a bit more in the next few months.  As for the future, he still has two arbitration years left after 2025.  The best comp for Duran in terms of what we have seen before would be a "poor man's" Josh Hader.  I use that term because Duran has not been used in the same way Hader was, and he does not have the same national coverage that Hader did at similar times in their respective careers.  With that being said, let's look at what the Brewers traded Hader for 2022 as a potential haul for the Twins.  For reference, in 2022, Hader still had 1 year of arbitration left, where Duran will be AFTER the 2026 season

Padres:  Josh Hader

Brewers:  Taylor Rogers RP (our old friend),  Dinelson Lamet (pitcher, now in the Mexican League) and OF Esteury Ruiz (currently in the Dodgers system at AAA-OKC)

This is not exactly a cornucopia of riches for a high-profile hurler that arguably had more value at the time of the trade than a potential Duran trade currently does due to Hader's track record and national recognition.  You're just not going to get someone who will be an upgrade to who we currently have on the roster as expected everyday players.  

 

Completely agree. Even if it made baseball sense to trade Duran on the idea that we'd be trading from "surplus", something with which I strongly disagree, the return would not be worth it. By the way, rumor is that our old friend Taylor Rogers will be available unless the Reds move into contention. He's a rental with his contract up at the end of the year and on a $6m number for this year. Would he be worth a prospect or two in the 10-20 range? 

[thelanges5]

We are already trying to avoid using 3 guys in our BP - Alcala, Fundy, Topa

When your SPs continually go 5 innings one of those guys is going to have to pitch in a mid to high leverage situation. Just look at Alcala in the Sat game. 

Need more BP arms you can trust not less. 
 

Unless some of the fellas step up. Looking at you Lee, Lewis, 🇫🇷. One batter won’t make enough of a difference. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

If you are looking for a hitter with an OPS of .850 or above there are only 25 of those in all of baseball right now and I doubt teams would be trading any of them for Duran.  Even the next 25 (top50) would take you down to a 800 OPS and most of those guys are stars on other teams. 

Ryan O'Hearn will be traded by the Orioles. He has a 172 OPS+ and a tiny $8M salary for 2025. He's a great fit for the Twins since he can play the field at 1B and corner OF. That also makes him a great fit for almost every other contending team.

Alex Bregman has an opt-out and could be traded by the Red Sox, but he also has a $40M salary for this season. Bregman is 4th in WAR in the American League.

Atlanta could sell Marcell Ozuna. He has a 147 OPS+ and a $16M salary for 2025. He's a pure DH.

Those are the best hitters likely to move at the deadline.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

No offense Matthew, but this is just a terrible idea on several levels. First, there is no evidence that Varland can close. He is improving but still shaky at times. More importantly, we know that Jax CANNOT close because we've tried that and it's failed and failed repeatedly. We also know from experience that Stewart has about 30 innings a year in that arm before he gets hurt. It's great that we're getting them now but the odds of him being an effective reliever after the ASB are not good based on his history. Nothing kills a team faster than giving up leads late. Trading Duran is a recipe for that to happen. 

Second, weakening the pitching staff right when our #1 starter gets hurt is bordering on reckless. I'm hopeful that Festa will be effective but there is no chance that he will give us the number of innings that Lopez does so we are looking at more bullpen usage, not less. I think the Lopez injury makes it more likely that we trade FOR a reliever, not that we trade away a reliever. 

Third, the offensive situation is not as dire as some people seem to think it is. You can't look at season long stats given our previous injuries. Wallner, Buxton, Castro, and Correa are back to full force, Lewis has shown signs of waking up in the last 2 days, and Larnach has shown real improvement. Is this a top 5-7 offense? No, it is not unless Lewis becomes the first half of 2024 Lewis.  But it should be a top half offense if we don't have a major injury. If we do, the trade is from pitching prospect depth, not the trade of a dominant closer. Decent offense backing a solid rotation with a dominant bullpen is a winning recipe as shown by the mid-teens Royals. This team could be that recipe.  

Finally, trading Duran would kill the clubhouse just when the team is feeling better about itself. Trading away one of your best players at a key position sends the "I don't care if we win" message. Moreover, there shouldn't be a financial issue. Money and contract issues may or may not even be an issue in the future because we are supposedly getting a new owner. The days of trading good players to get "value" before they are "too expensive" may be over or at least lessened. 

Unless we are trading Duran for Judge or Ohtani, this is a very, very bad, terrible idea IMHO. Rant over. Have a great day. 

You could break this into four posts and I'd give a "like" on each. 

[mikelink45]

I have to join the chorus of NOsssssss!!!!!!!!!!!.   Have you looked at how many RP we use in each game?  We have played 61 games - Varland has already been in 31 and Duran and Jax 29.  And Sands 27.  Do you really want us to have a weaker BP every other day when Varland and Jax are not available.  Stewart has had too many injuries to completely depend on him. Coloumbe is already injured.  Alcala or Funderburk are not pitchers I want to be regularly in high pressure situations.  Topa I do not know, but overall I do not want the pecking order changed and lower level RP moving up.  

[tony&rodney]

The authors need to be specific for who gets returned in any such trades ..... at least a speculation or two. 

To answer the question though - absolutely NO. Look at the better teams with San Diego as an example. Four or more shut down relief pitchers is a goal and needed to win in the MLB game today. 

Last night was an example of what the Twins can do with this current bullpen. Also, I'm not giving up on Alcala as a good bottom four guy in the pen.

[Western SD Fan]

I've been pleasantly surprised with management and ownership considering we were discussing in the offseason that they would need to trade Paddack, Castro, or some combination of players to get under the perceived payroll cap.  With that being said, I just don't see ownership spending much more unless we have another month like we did in May, and we start looking like a true AL contender (deep playoff run).  This is not a blame ownership comment, more of a sometimes you have to leave the dance with the girl you came with comment.

[Mrs. Baseball]

So the Twins finally have talent and depth in the pitching department and I visit this site for my daily dose of all things Twins and there are articles about trading Paddack (with Lopez on the shelf) and Duran, for heaven's sake. I had to double check to make sure I wasn't reading The Onion.

[Mrs. Baseball]

2 hours ago, rdehring said:

Interesting.  I am not qualified to even begin to have an opinion of whether or not this would be good move.  Trust the Twins front office is qualified, at least I hope like heck they are.

I believe I am to some degree. Absolutely ridiculous.

[Mrs. Baseball]

Just for fun I listened to the tail end of the A's broadcast last night and after being blitzed by Louie, Jax and Stewart they were almost weeping when Duran took the bump.

But I've decided this article has to be satiric click bait. No serious baller would consider such a move.