Minnesota Twins Paying the Price for an Inactive Offseason

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Things are going poorly for the Minnesota Twins right now—very poorly. And while there’s plenty of blame to go around (the players aren’t producing, the managing has been shaky, and ownership didn’t give the front office the resources to spend this offseason), not enough has been said about one key failure: the Twins’ decision to run it back with the same offensive core that fell apart in 2024. We’re now watching the consequences of that decision play out in real time.

Let’s rewind. We all remember how last season ended. The Twins, once a contender, completely collapsed in the final third of the season. From August 18 (the late-inning collapse in Texas that started the tailspin) through the end of the year, Minnesota ranked 26th in MLB with a .646 OPS and hit just 31 home runs—third worst in baseball. There were many reasons for the collapse, but the offense was by far the biggest one.

Given how painful that stretch was, the obvious move heading into 2025 was to mix things up. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results, right? Yet, the Twins front office chose to do just that. Their major “fixes” were hiring a new hitting coach (albeit a retread, coming back to the organization from Baltimore), tweaking their offensive philosophy, and signing Harrison Bader and Ty France: solid but uninspiring moves for a lineup that badly needed a jolt.

Rather than reshape the roster, the front office doubled down. They chalked up the 40-game offensive blackout to bad luck or a fluke and bet that the same core would bounce back. So far, that bet has failed miserably.

Through the early part of 2025, the offense looks eerily similar to the group that crumbled late last year. After hitting .228 with a .646 OPS down the stretch in 2024, they’ve posted a .234 average and .672 OPS to start this season—still firmly in the bottom third of the league.

The front office’s defenders will point to the team’s budget constraints, and it’s true that ownership didn’t provide meaningful funds to make a splash in free agency. But this wasn’t only about signing big names. The Twins had trade chips. They could have dealt from their pitching depth—Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, even Jhoan Duran—or tapped into their farm system with names like Emmanuel Rodriguez or Kaelen Culpepper. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton weren’t likely trade candidates due to their contracts, but the rest of the roster? There were opportunities to make moves.

Instead, the Twins brought back the same group—Correa, Buxton, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers, and Trevor Larnach—and hoped for better results. They haven't come.

Now, the cost of inaction is becoming clear. The offense is once again dragging the team down. And the longer this continues, the more the front office may shift from potential buyers to inevitable sellers. That same trio of Ryan, Ober, and Duran—players who could’ve been used to bring in immediate offensive help—might now be moved for prospects as the Twins fall out of the race. But their trade value is shrinking by the day, with less team control and less leverage.

Yes, the front office has been operating with one hand tied behind its back due to ownership’s limited investment. That reality deserves acknowledgment. But it doesn’t excuse everything. They still had cards to play—and chose not to play them. Instead, they put their faith in an offensive core that gave them no reason to believe.

And now, they’re paying the price. We all are.

What do you think—should the Twins have made bigger changes this offseason to shake up the offense? Leave a comment and start the conversation.

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[jmlease1]

Yep. Pretty poor offseason. Bader has worked out better than I expected, but France is a lot more what we thought he was likely to be (ok-ish on offense, meh on defense, and not a difference maker).

We were told that Vazquez had value, and I think Paddack did too, and I was an advocate to move on from both of them to try and free up payroll and make a move to improve the offense. Instead both are eminently replaceable. There were prospects in the system and enough depth to make some moves and it feels like they didn't seriously get there.

Hard to know for sure what was really out there as an option, but between ownership's miserly ways and the front office being slow and hesitant to move...the only help we're getting isn't going to come internally, and with our usual spate of prospect injuries, it seems we're not getting that any time soon either.

The pitching is still good enough to get us back in this, and the offense is probably better than it's been (Wallner and Lewis returning will almost certainly help) but it's been a depressing start.

[NYCTK]

Much like the trade deadline, the front office refused to choose a direction. Instead they crossed their fingers for 84 wins and a pathetic wild card appearance. 

Thankfully the Twins fans have fully noticed and are holding the organization accountable for its mediocrity. Here's hoping attendance stays below 15,000 for the rest of the season. 

[chpettit19]

I'll play a little of the middle ground here. I think the offense is a little better than this, but it wasn't/isn't good enough to have bet on it the way they did this offseason.

Lewis injury shouldn't be a surprise so can't blame that, but Wallner has never had injury problems and him being out is hurting. A healthy Correa should reasonably be expected to be better than this. Julien, Larnach, Miranda, Jeffers, etc. are all inconsistent hitters so them being inconsistent hitters shouldn't be a surprise, and the FO shouldn't have bet on them being anything but inconsistent hitters.

Many of us spent the whole offseason saying the offense wasn't good enough and it's why we thought they were a low- to mid-80s win team at best. When Correa is bad when he's on the field you're going to see them struggle pretty good. Correa needs to get it going or this team has no shot. And they need to stay afloat until Wallner gets back then hope they can stay reasonably healthy from there on out. All for their chance at getting to around .500. Betting on this lineup was a mistake. And it may cost Falvey his job if the Pohlads actually sell the team.

[Greglw3]

Your article is so on point that there’s little I can add. Any daily Twins fan mesmerized by all the .150s and .180s, .210s in the lineup day after day, could use 3rd grade math to see that lineup was going to be a drag. And the bench with all .1xx batting averages.

That’s why the Keaschall injury was so heartbreaking. He and Lewis could have given a big jump. I’d strongly consider bringing up McCusker. Larnach is barely passable. Or start and outfield of Bader, Buxton and Keirsey and have the best defensive OF in baseball and give Keirsey his first sustained (200 AB) to see if that .300 hitter is still in there. But fly Rodney Cline out to help him with his bunting with the goal of 20 bunt hits the rest of the season.

And set a goal of 100 stolen bases for Bader, Buxton and Keirsey the rest of the year. Shake it up! Let’s go!

 

[Greglw3]

45 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Much like the trade deadline, the front office refused to choose a direction. Instead they crossed their fingers for 84 wins and a pathetic wild card appearance. 

Thankfully the Twins fans have fully noticed and are holding the organization accountable for its mediocrity. Here's hoping attendance stays below 15,000 for the rest of the season. 

But Falvey still says to this day, "I have a ton of faith in the players in that locker room". Well there’s the problem. Falvey needs to enroll in a Strat-O-Matic league with sharp managers to learn the type of players it takes to win and the type of attentive, responsive, yes, aggressive managing it takes to win.

Or he could watch film of the great tactician, Gene Mauch, who I consider the best Twins manager ever and one of the greatest managers in baseball history. Watch the whole 1976 or 1977 seasons and see what a GREAT manager looks like.

[FlyingFinn]

I will say Coulumbe was an excellent pickup. Well spent money there.

[JD-TWINS]

So, their best statistical hitter of ‘25 coming back from ‘24 wasn’t mentioned above, Matt Wallner.

I completely AGREE that a combination of Vazquez or Paddack or Castro mixed with a BIGGER chip in Duran or maybe Matthews would have, could have, garnered a real bat from someone! Personally, I thought Tristan Casas should have been the target - no crystal ball here - he was OK to poor so far this year and is now out for the year.

Jeffers - France - Buxton - Bader - Lee all have above .700 OPS (league average) Wallner and Keaschall are well over .800 & 1.000 OPS, respectively. Lewis should be back tomorrow and certainly has above .700 OPS talent……displacing Julien in the line-up.

Keaschall - DH….Buxton - CF….Larnach - LF….Lewis - 3B….Wallner - RF….Correa - SS….Jeffers - C….France - 1B….Lee - 2B

7 guys above .700 OPS above and Larnach & Correa should both get to & sustain a .700 plus OPS as well. Bader and Castro and Bride will split up the innings that Keaschall should eventually get by mid-July.

Bader - Castro - Vazquez - Bride as guys off the bench.

To me, this is a better than average line-up that would put up Top 10-14 offense w/o issue.

I’m not ignorant to the fact that the offense has been disappointing and lackluster waay toooo often. They have been steadily improving and the last, nearly 5 full months, hold much promise.

Starters blended ERA 3.97.

Staff overall ERA 3.60.

Little better situational hitting and some better health and things should turn!

 

 

[Blyleven2011]

I'm not sure the front office did any betting ...

They live on hope ...

The front office was stagnant once again , no aggressiveness during the off season to trade some players to free up money for a better grade of players ( an everyday player that could slot in and hit and produce ) ...

It was a mistake , a mistake that the  front office has been making since the 2022 deadline ( they thought we were contenders and made trades , Lopez,  mahle  and others ) , we were not contenders in 2022 but in 2023 we were and they did nothing at that deadline or 2024 deadline  ...

Gun shy at deadline trades is my guess or yes lack of payroll ...

They add veterans , some have worked out , some have not , they don't invest wisely late in the off season  ( i wouldn't want them as my investment broker ) , they usually over spend for a declining veteran ( gallo for one ) , the front office hasn't been good at evaluating talent to make this team click ...

What the front office has been the best at is dumpster diving  , and we know the disaster that has been  ...

I can't resist  , front office has been a TOTAL SYSTEM FAILURE at constructing an exciting baseball team ...

2019 was exciting with the bombas , late 2023 and the playoffs were exciting , but everything else has not been exciting , just 2019 and 2023 seasons ...

I still follow my Twins because I have a passion for baseball , I live for opening day , everything in between  and then the world series ( it would be nice if the twins could get there again )...

My friends think I'm crazy , if I am crazy , it's the only thing that's kept me from going insane ...

[JD-TWINS]

23 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Your article is so on point that there’s little I can add. Any daily Twins fan mesmerized by all the .150s and .180s, .210s in the lineup day after day, could use 3rd grade math to see that lineup was going to be a drag. And the bench with all .1xx batting averages.

That’s why the Keaschall injury was so heartbreaking. He and Lewis could have given a big jump. I’d strongly consider bringing up McCusker. Larnach is barely passable. Or start and outfield of Bader, Buxton and Keirsey and have the best defensive OF in baseball and give Keirsey his first sustained (200 AB) to see if that .300 hitter is still in there. But fly Rodney Cline out to help him with his bunting with the goal of 20 bunt hits the rest of the season.

And set a goal of 100 stolen bases for Bader, Buxton and Keirsey the rest of the year. Shake it up! Let’s go!

 

His bunting may be beyond repair - he’s absolutely brutal when squaring around AND he’s even more brutal trying to swing away……….if Larnach is “barely passable” I don’t have an adjective/description I can use in public for Kiersey’s offense.

Kiersey has been in 26 games and has started roughly a dozen. He has TWO total bases. His 2 hits have earned him BA - OBP - Slug% all at .069. He’s 2-29 with zero walks.
 

I’m all for Rodney Cline helping anyone he feels deserves his time - Kiersey, why not? Rod better have some Valium to get through a bunting/hitting session with DaShawn!

[Greglw3]

38 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I will say Coulumbe was an excellent pickup. Well spent money there.

Yes, that was a very good move. One of his best, post 2018-19.

[Greglw3]

27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

His bunting may be beyond repair - he’s absolutely brutal when squaring around AND he’s even more brutal trying to swing away……….if Larnach is “barely passable” I don’t have an adjective/description I can use in public for Kiersey’s offense.

Kiersey has been in 26 games and has started roughly a dozen. He has TWO total bases. His 2 hits have earned him BA - OBP - Slug% all at .069. He’s 2-29 with zero walks.
 

I’m all for Rodney Cline helping anyone he feels deserves his time - Kiersey, why not? Rod better have some Valium to get through a bunting/hitting session with DaShawn!

Seems Larnach was worse than Keirsey after 150 MLB AB and had to be sent down because he struck ut on any breaking stuff. Rodney could do it. Add in the 4 bases he’s stolen too. Slow starts to MB careers are very common, Torri Hunter, Matt Wallner and I remember the great all-star, gold glove, Chisox 3rd baseman Robin Ventura starting his career something like 1 for 42.

Did you see Keirsey’s spectacular catch the other day. Stole a hit, same as getting one. so 7 bases, 2 singles, 4 stolen bases and 1 theft.

[Whitey333]

Yes the Twin̈s front office has issues.  I think they do a rotten job 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I have two issues with the OP one is that prospects are the currency of trades. Trading major leaguers for major leaguers doesn’t happen very often, certainly not frequently for players of consequence. Trading major leaguers for prospects, then flipping those prospects for other major leaguers can happen, that’s a lot for one off-season. That’s likely a longer term rebuild that takes you outside the current window. The hitters are old, and feeble.

Secondly, this team isn’t one hitter away, and with the ownership big money wasn’t coming… Aaron Judge wasn’t going to make this a good hitting team.

the OP is correct, in that this team needed more done to it to succeed, but the prescription missed 

[Kirby Killebrew]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, their best statistical hitter of ‘25 coming back from ‘24 wasn’t mentioned above, Matt Wallner.

I completely AGREE that a combination of Vazquez or Paddack or Castro mixed with a BIGGER chip in Duran or maybe Matthews would have, could have, garnered a real bat from someone! Personally, I thought Tristan Casas should have been the target - no crystal ball here - he was OK to poor so far this year and is now out for the year.

Jeffers - France - Buxton - Bader - Lee all have above .700 OPS (league average) Wallner and Keaschall are well over .800 & 1.000 OPS, respectively. Lewis should be back tomorrow and certainly has above .700 OPS talent……displacing Julien in the line-up.

Keaschall - DH….Buxton - CF….Larnach - LF….Lewis - 3B….Wallner - RF….Correa - SS….Jeffers - C….France - 1B….Lee - 2B

7 guys above .700 OPS above and Larnach & Correa should both get to & sustain a .700 plus OPS as well. Bader and Castro and Bride will split up the innings that Keaschall should eventually get by mid-July.

Bader - Castro - Vazquez - Bride as guys off the bench.

To me, this is a better than average line-up that would put up Top 10-14 offense w/o issue.

I’m not ignorant to the fact that the offense has been disappointing and lackluster waay toooo often. They have been steadily improving and the last, nearly 5 full months, hold much promise.

Starters blended ERA 3.97.

Staff overall ERA 3.60.

Little better situational hitting and some better health and things should turn!

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

My take is that the FO was banking on what the lineup did during the first half of last season and believing that the second half was an anomoly.

What if they had been right?  It is conceivable that this lineup could have come out cooking if Lewis had not been hurt just before the opener and we had not lost Wallner.

Even if that did not occur, what if they made a bunch of trades and got back a bunch of trash?  Other than the Arreaz trade, the FO has not been stellar in that area. And with no more $, trades were the ONLY way to improve.

Lastly, the author mentions trading some of our starting pitching like Ober and Ryan for a hitter or two.  Say we did that and now loose games 6-5 because our starters are not as good.  Starting pitching is keeping us close in games.  A few players in the lineup contributing and those 2-1 and 3-2 loses get turned around into wins.

We need to look at both sides of what could have occurred.  Have faith.

Excellent analysis!  First, the FO had no way to trade a $10 million Vazquez or even an oft-injured $7.5 million Paddack, so we were chained to those costs.  (After a rough start, Paddack has pitched decently, hopefully that will continue.  This might be a good time to sell high on him, with Festa and Matthews available.)

Given how little money was available, I was surprised they were able to get France and Bader.  (I was not high on Bader and am quite pleased to be proved wrong.) 

Hard to blame the FO when your top two power hitters, Wallner and Lewis, have a total of 66 at-bats.  Get Lewis and Castro back this week, hopefully that will help the offense.  

Despite the horrendous start, the pitching now ranks ninth in the majors in ERA and WHIP.  Keep pitching decently and get some lineup pieces back and we could get back in this thing.  Go get 'em, guys!

 

 

[Bball57]

Frankly, the narrative that ownership is severely restricting spending is not correct. The Twins, a mid-market team, sit 18th out of 30 teams in total payroll in 2025. The Tigers’ total payroll is just slightly higher than the Twins’ payroll, and the Twins are spending significantly more than both Kansas City and Cleveland.

It isn’t ownership who decided to give Carlos Correa a six-year deal with an AAV of $33.3 million. It isn’t ownership who decided to pay Pablo Lopez $21.75 million this year, next year and the year following. It isn’t ownership who signed Christian Vazquez to a three-year, $10 million AV deal three years ago.

in the case of Correa and Lopez, they are contributing professional ball players, no doubt about it. But Correa is not, and never has been, a significant offensive force. Pablo Lopez sports a 56–51 career record with a 3.86 ERA. I’m not quite sure what to say about Vazquez, a backup catcher, but the money spent on him was a complete waste from the get-go.

The bottom line is that the front office has signed a number of players to inflated value contracts that significantly restrict the Twins’ ability to do much of anything, including adding the much needed hitting described in this article. To lay all or most of the current problems plaguing the Twins at the feet of ownership is in my opinion unfair and misguided. 

[GNess]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

My take is that the FO was banking on what the lineup did during the first half of last season and believing that the second half was an anomoly.

What if they had been right?  It is conceivable that this lineup could have come out cooking if Lewis had not been hurt just before the opener and we had not lost Wallner.

Even if that did not occur, what if they made a bunch of trades and got back a bunch of trash?  Other than the Arreaz trade, the FO has not been stellar in that area. And with no more $, trades were the ONLY way to improve.

Lastly, the author mentions trading some of our starting pitching like Ober and Ryan for a hitter or two.  Say we did that and now loose games 6-5 because our starters are not as good.  Starting pitching is keeping us close in games.  A few players in the lineup contributing and those 2-1 and 3-2 loses get turned around into wins.

We need to look at both sides of what could have occurred.  Have faith.

I respect your perspective, but not trading because the FO (Falvey) is not good at it is a serious indictment of his baseball acumen and preparedness to be in charge.  Trades are an important component in roster development for almost every MLB team. The Twins need someone who is good at it.

[Guest]

How much money did those guys get to sign?  I don't think the FO missed anything by standing pat.  It's on those guys to (finally) step up....

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I will say Coulumbe was an excellent pickup. Well spent money there.

All three free agents (Bader, Coulombe, France) have provided good value. That makes it even more frustrating that several returning players have flopped.

[tony&rodney]

Dear Twins Daily owners and management,

Please order a stop to the inane line that the Twins don't have any or insufficient financial resources to field a team. The toxicity of that repetitive line does not add anything to a discussion and is also simply  false. The trend is to say something and that makes it true is a popular practice in our country right now but it is also very tiresome. I won 7 Cy Young Awards in the 1960s. That isn't true either. 

Moving on, there are disappointments galore thus far in the 2025 season but we have not even reached mid May. The Twins can easily reach their expected mark, which is roughly 83-85 wins. The bats can still come alive and the pitching should maintain. The Twins have spent more money on payroll since Falvey arrived than any other team in the AL Central. Money is not an issue. There are good players still in the system and trades are always a possibility even if Falvey is reticent to gamble. Some big series coming up. One can only imagine what the fan base in Baltimore is thinking and writing about their team. I'm thinking the Twins reach .500 baseball some time in June or July. 

[HerbieFan]

Geez, who woulda thunk it?

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm thinking the Twins reach .500 baseball some time in June or July. 

I think they could regress to the mean and play .500 baseball in June or July. Unfortunately I think they'll be 8-10 games under .500 because of April and May. They haven't played any of the first place teams besides Detroit.

[terrydactyls]

I don't live in Minnesota so I don't get to see many Twins games.  But from the few I've seen, it appears Bader is really enjoying playing in Minnesota (or just playing?).  How do you locals feel about that?

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

But Falvey still says to this day, "I have a ton of faith in the players in that locker room". Well there’s the problem. Falvey needs to enroll in a Strat-O-Matic league with sharp managers to learn the type of players it takes to win and the type of attentive, responsive, yes, aggressive managing it takes to win.

Or he could watch film of the great tactician, Gene Mauch, who I consider the best Twins manager ever and one of the greatest managers in baseball history. Watch the whole 1976 or 1977 seasons and see what a GREAT manager looks like.

What do you want him to say publicly about his employees? As a leader, you expect him to publicly say his people suck? That's not what good leaders do. 

[Aerodeliria]

It seems like we are always complaining about being cursed by the injury bug. We are no more cursed than anyone else, so that argument really doesn't fly. (For a comparable examination consider that the O's have had 14 players on the IL. BTW, I fear them more than practically anyone right now, so it is not great timing for the Twins. At least, the Twins will be at home, which may help, but my fear is real.)

It has been in the tight games where we have really short-circuited. I don't care what the inning or the score, the bullpen has nearly always coughed up the lead late. Has it been fielding? Yes.  Has it been hitting? Yes. Has it been pitching? Yes. Has it been the baserunning? Yes. Has it been the decisions by Baldelli? Yes.

The rally in Boston I hope has turned the tables. (IMHO, the east is not nearly as daunting as it once was....although I'm sure when the Twins take on the Yankees, we'll be able to boost their confidence.)

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Yep. Pretty poor offseason. Bader has worked out better than I expected, but France is a lot more what we thought he was likely to be (ok-ish on offense, meh on defense, and not a difference maker).

We were told that Vazquez had value, and I think Paddack did too, and I was an advocate to move on from both of them to try and free up payroll and make a move to improve the offense. Instead both are eminently replaceable. There were prospects in the system and enough depth to make some moves and it feels like they didn't seriously get there.

Hard to know for sure what was really out there as an option, but between ownership's miserly ways and the front office being slow and hesitant to move...the only help we're getting isn't going to come internally, and with our usual spate of prospect injuries, it seems we're not getting that any time soon either.

The pitching is still good enough to get us back in this, and the offense is probably better than it's been (Wallner and Lewis returning will almost certainly help) but it's been a depressing start.

Who told us that Vazquez & Paddack had value?  The team?  Or rubes on this site?  Just because some folks believe something to be true does not make it so.

[dxpavelka]

OK.  So you have established that we should have done something.  Outside of spending money like drunken sailors, WHAT?  I'll wait.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Seems Larnach was worse than Keirsey after 150 MLB AB and had to be sent down because he struck ut on any breaking stuff. Rodney could do it. Add in the 4 bases he’s stolen too. Slow starts to MB careers are very common, Torri Hunter, Matt Wallner and I remember the great all-star, gold glove, Chisox 3rd baseman Robin Ventura starting his career something like 1 for 42.

Did you see Keirsey’s spectacular catch the other day. Stole a hit, same as getting one. so 7 bases, 2 singles, 4 stolen bases and 1 theft.

Keirsey has officially started in a grand total of 3 games this season. Twins won all 3 games (I guess the win stat doesn't count), he got hits in his last 2, against red-hot NYM. A player can contribute in many ways, almost all his games he has played in were close except a few that Twins won & a couple in the beginning that he was put in when the game was already a blowout. 

Love your example of Robin Ventura, Greg. There are many examples of good MLBers who had bad hitting starts even after given many regular ABs. Keirsey hasn't been given enough regular ABs to amount to anything.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

 Slow starts to MB careers are very common, Torri Hunter, Matt Wallner and I remember the great all-star, gold glove, Chisox 3rd baseman Robin Ventura starting his career something like 1 for 42.

Can we stop comparing players that aren't similar? Ventura went 8/45 as a 21 year old and by the time he was in his age 28 season had over 30 career WAR.

Hunter went 4/17 as a 22 year old and was winning gold gloves and MVP votes by age 25.

Keirsey turns 28 next week and so far is 4/42 in his career with zero walks, he isn't a major league starter, he is what he is and that is the last man on a active roster,

[HrbieFan]

When your best bat is France, you have issues. Correa, Larnach, Wallner, Vazquez have sucked all year! Believing in those 2 overrated OFs is a big problem for the FO.  And look at Max raking in Philly....maybe it is our cruddy coach and moneyball attitude