Minnesota Twins Paying the Price for an Inactive Offseason

[Doctor Gast]

'23 we had a great core. '24 Falvey tinkered with that core & failed to trade to cover our holes. On paper, we have looked great, the problem is maintaining that core & the chemistry that comes with it. We have been close in a great share of our games, but the problem is the fire is gone & it's been hard to maintain the momentum to take us over. Managing the team & developing our support group is the biggest problem. The continuation of dismantling the core won't help, it'll only make it worse.

The addition of Bader, France & Coulume was beneficiary, but I'd manage them a little differently. I didn't like their splurge on the acquisition of rejects, hoping one would stick (like they did last year with the BP). 

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

OK.  So you have established that we should have done something.  Outside of spending money like drunken sailors, WHAT?  I'll wait.

You have a point.  It's easy to make blanket statements.  What would be more interesting IMO is a conversation about who specifically people would have replaced.  Correa and Buxton were not really possible to move and there was discussion about Correa and a lot of people said they would disown the franchise if he were moved assuming it was even possible.

Lewis?  I got the impression most people thought he was a cornerstone.  Walner?  That makes no sense.  Jeffers has been very good.  It looked like they were trying to move Vasquez but let's be real.  Who would want him without the twins eating most of the salary.  Larnach?  He was one of the bright spots the 2nd half last year.  Perhaps a slight upgrade was possible but does it make sense to trade or sign a top OFer when you have Larnach/Wallner and Rodriguez and Jenkins on the horizon?

That leaves 1B and 2B.  They had Castro for 2B and Looks like we have a really good replacement (Keaschall) ready to go.  Which leaves 1B.  Yep, they could have traded for a top 1B.  They did not have the budget to sign one so it would have had to be a trade.  Should they have given up Matthews / Festa or Keaschall / Jenkins for an upgrade at 1B?

I was in favor of moving Paddack and Castro if possible and investing that money in a bat.  Would that have made any difference with Wallner / Lewis out and Correa's wRC+ at 58?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Keirsey hasn't been given enough regular ABs to amount to anything.

He hasn't done anything in the at-bats he has been given to show he deserves more. The Twins don't exist to make DaShawn Keirsey happy.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

When your best bat is France, you have issues. Correa, Larnach, Wallner, Vazquez have sucked all year! Believing in those 2 overrated OFs is a big problem for the FO.  And look at Max raking in Philly....maybe it is our cruddy coach and moneyball attitude 

Wallner was really good before he was injured. I don't understand how a guy with a 137 OPS+ gets lumped in with Christian Vazquez. Max Kepler isn't hitting as well as Wallner.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Who told us that Vazquez & Paddack had value?  The team?  Or rubes on this site?  Just because some folks believe something to be true does not make it so.

Reported by multiple professionals covering the team, not just people at this site. Saw the interest in Vazquez from the Padres as well. How much were they worth? We'll never know. Would we have had to eat some salary to move them? Possibly. But it seemed clear that they were moveable players and contracts by professionals in the industry, not just "rubes" on this site that you seem invested in crapping on.

[Linus]

I think what they did is defensible and I don’t care for the FO. They had a bunch of guys approaching their primes. I’m referring to Larnach Wallner Lewis Jeffers Julien Miranda Martin and even Castro to a certain extent. There were question marks with all of them but potential upside existed. If most of them took the next step it would have worked out (and it still could but it’s getting late early). Falvey rolled the dice and came up empty so far. Gotta think the same confidence will not be extended next year (it better not be) meaning these guys better get it going or the Twins need to move on. 

[Sjoski]

15 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

But fly Rodney Cline out to help him with his bunting

Maybe Rodney will give a volume discount if he teaches the entire team!! 

The Twins' "go on contact" plays at third have looked absolutely horrid this season. Runners are getting thrown out by embarrassing margins.

Why is this happening to often? They aren't all going to work.....but consistent failure should trigger an alert.

1. Poor situational awareness from the coaching staff — sending runners in situations where the ball was hit too sharply or to the wrong infielder.

2. Lack of execution on the hitting side — weak or misdirected contact on what might've been a hit-and-run or squeeze attempt.

3. An inability or refusal to bunt — either because Rocco doesn’t trust his hitters to do it, or because they literally can’t (which would be a developmental failure).

[LambchoP]

As someone already said, management doesn't know what it wants to do. If we are seriously going to contend, then you go out and fill your roster holes with impact players. If we're not competing, then we should be making moves to improve the team for the near future. They've done neither. They always just sit tight, do the minimum they need to do at the cheapest cost possible and cross their fingers hoping to make a profit and sell enough tickets. Really hope we get new owners who actually want to take control of this team and win 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

As someone already said, management doesn't know what it wants to do. If we are seriously going to contend, then you go out and fill your roster holes with impact players. If we're not competing, then we should be making moves to improve the team for the near future. They've done neither. They always just sit tight, do the minimum they need to do at the cheapest cost possible and cross their fingers hoping to make a profit and sell enough tickets. Really hope we get new owners who actually want to take control of this team and win 

This seems to be what most middling teams do now. I'm not a fan. 

[bean5302]

It was certainly a conservative off season, but a typical one for Falvey who always seems to wait too long and overplay his hand until he finds himself short on suitors over the offseason.

The Twins' likely plan:

C - Jeffers
1B - France
2B - Castro (IL)
SS - Correa (struggling)
3B - Lewis (IL)
LF - Bader 
CF - Buxton
RF - Wallner (IL)
DH - Larnach (struggling)
Util - Lee (IL)
Util - Miranda (struggling, IL)
Util - Keirsey 
BC - Vazquez (struggling)

Losing 5 of your position players to the IL, and having guys like Holland and Martin on the IL in AAA has certainly been a major hit to the Twins. Even worse, the guys who were expected to be big contributors have flopped for a large portion of the season with the pressure on. While Jeffers and Buxton look great right now, they were both ice cold for the first couple weeks.

The Twins find themselves in a division where the Tigers look better than expected, and they were already probably picked to be better than Minnesota to start with. The Twins are 7 games back from the division lead and 5 games out of the Wildcard if the season ended today, needing to pass 5 teams above them to make the WC3 spot.

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Keirsey has officially started in a grand total of 3 games this season. Twins won all 3 games (I guess the win stat doesn't count), he got hits in his last 2, against red-hot NYM. A player can contribute in many ways, almost all his games he has played in were close except a few that Twins won & a couple in the beginning that he was put in when the game was already a blowout. 

Love your example of Robin Ventura, Greg. There are many examples of good MLBers who had bad hitting starts even after given many regular ABs. Keirsey hasn't been given enough regular ABs to amount to anything.

He's also the 589th best hitter out of 590 hitters in major league baseball with at least 40 PAs in the last two seasons. And there's nothing in the peripherals or player history to suggest it's a fluke. 

He is so bad, we would all welcome Manuel Margot pinch hitting for him in any situation. 

[NYCTK]

10 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

It seems like we are always complaining about being cursed by the injury bug. We are no more cursed than anyone else, so that argument really doesn't fly.

Yep. This team has actually been quite healthy. Pitching injuries? None really. Position players, more so, but not more than any other team for the most part. This team just lacks any real depth. If you NEED the team to be near 100% health to be any good, you're a bad team. 

 

 

[The Great Hambino]

There’s an element of luck with injuries, but you can’t chalk them all up to luck.  Every team should expect some injuries to occur and plan accordingly.

Where I think the Twins have been unlucky to a degree is the fact that the area where they were arguably deepest on paper coming into spring training (starting pitching) is also the area where they’ve needed to lean in their depth the least.  

 

[insagt1]

Coming up a series featuring two disgruntled under performing teams that should be better but aren't.

I would watch Lewis very carefully. He may not be that 'big bat' we all thought. Too often injured; too much whining last year; far too many k's have really taken away the shine on this guy. Will be interesting to see what he brings.

All the other comments about our under performing offense are valid. Correa had been a huge disappointment so far. I wouldn't trade our biggest assets ..our starting pitchers..but I would like to see them give us at least 7 innings. 

I have no clue what we will see against the struggling injury wracked O's. Over there they have the torches and pitchforks out for manager and GM...very loudly. Stay tuned!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

He's also the 589th best hitter out of 590 hitters in major league baseball with at least 40 PAs in the last two seasons. And there's nothing in the peripherals or player history to suggest it's a fluke. 

He is so bad, we would all welcome Manuel Margot pinch hitting for him in any situation. 

I would pinch hit for Keirsey with Vazquez.

[NYCTK]

44 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Coming up a series featuring two disgruntled under performing teams that should be better but aren't.

I would watch Lewis very carefully. He may not be that 'big bat' we all thought. Too often injured; too much whining last year; far too many k's have really taken away the shine on this guy. Will be interesting to see what he brings.

All the other comments about our under performing offense are valid. Correa had been a huge disappointment so far. I wouldn't trade our biggest assets ..our starting pitchers..but I would like to see them give us at least 7 innings. 

I have no clue what we will see against the struggling injury wracked O's. Over there they have the torches and pitchforks out for manager and GM...very loudly. Stay tuned!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since coming back from an adductor strain in July he's hit 207/270/350 over 226 PAs. Royce is not who we thought he was. 

But we should cut him some slack, because he said he was tired 😢

[mikelink45]

This is well written, but we have now read this numerous times over the last two months.  What will change?  What can change?  

I just can't listen to the small market, limited resources mantra any more.  Below us in team payroll - Detroit, KC, Seattle, Milwaukee, Cleveland - I will stop there because all three teams in our division who are ahead of us in the standings have a lower payroll.  

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You have a point.  It's easy to make blanket statements.  What would be more interesting IMO is a conversation about who specifically people would have replaced.  Correa and Buxton were not really possible to move and there was discussion about Correa and a lot of people said they would disown the franchise if he were moved assuming it was even possible.

Lewis?  I got the impression most people thought he was a cornerstone.  Walner?  That makes no sense.  Jeffers has been very good.  It looked like they were trying to move Vasquez but let's be real.  Who would want him without the twins eating most of the salary.  Larnach?  He was one of the bright spots the 2nd half last year.  Perhaps a slight upgrade was possible but does it make sense to trade or sign a top OFer when you have Larnach/Wallner and Rodriguez and Jenkins on the horizon?

That leaves 1B and 2B.  They had Castro for 2B and Looks like we have a really good replacement (Keaschall) ready to go.  Which leaves 1B.  Yep, they could have traded for a top 1B.  They did not have the budget to sign one so it would have had to be a trade.  Should they have given up Matthews / Festa or Keaschall / Jenkins for an upgrade at 1B?

I was in favor of moving Paddack and Castro if possible and investing that money in a bat.  Would that have made any difference with Wallner / Lewis out and Correa's wRC+ at 58?

Bingo.  The biggest issue with their offense is that guys just haven't hit like they might well do by the end of the season.  There WERE some calling for us to take a shot at Vlady Jr.  That was NEVER going to happen

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Reported by multiple professionals covering the team, not just people at this site. Saw the interest in Vazquez from the Padres as well. How much were they worth? We'll never know. Would we have had to eat some salary to move them? Possibly. But it seemed clear that they were moveable players and contracts by professionals in the industry, not just "rubes" on this site that you seem invested in crapping on.

Most "professionals" covering the team are just rubes who got someone to pay them for being such.  The Padres had so much "interest" that they didn't make the move.  Lots of teams have lots of interest in lots of guys.  You can't make soup out of interest.

[HrbieFan]

23 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Wallner was really good before he was injured. I don't understand how a guy with a 137 OPS+ gets lumped in with Christian Vazquez. Max Kepler isn't hitting as well as Wallner.

1 HR and 3 RBIs isn't doing much IMO. 

[Major League Ready]

23 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Reported by multiple professionals covering the team, not just people at this site. Saw the interest in Vazquez from the Padres as well. How much were they worth? We'll never know. Would we have had to eat some salary to move them? Possibly. But it seemed clear that they were moveable players and contracts by professionals in the industry, not just "rubes" on this site that you seem invested in crapping on.

Let's apply a little common sense.  The Padres are a contender.  We want to get rid of Vasquez because he has no place on a contender.  We are desperate to get rid of him because he is a black hole in the line-up but the Padres want him, why?  Does that make any sense? 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Another article on the offseason,  ok I think we have beat this horse enough.  We know the limitations of the ownership that was put on the front office.  

Now lets look at the team.  

This is my view -  Jax and Julien by themselves have lost us 4 games at least.   Jax seems to be getting back on track,  Julien I think may effectively be done as a twin.  The bat can play,  the defense is giving me Knoblach flashbacks at the end of his tenure.  

The injuries have really sapped the depth of our team.  At one point we had Bride, Gasper and Clemens on the roster,  and at least 1 to 2 of them were in the lineup.   

Correa for whatever reason does not hit in April.  It frustrates the hell out of me,  don't know what to do about it,  and then he goes out and goes 3-4 (1 was gift,  the home run was blasted).  

The infield appears to be solidifying to expectations.  Correa, Lewis, Lee and France,  is really a pretty darn solid infield.   France was 2 ft away from a homerun last night.  I have been really impressed with the way he is hitting the ball.   

Outfield,  Buxton is playing awesome,  Bader has been solid.  Wallner was probably our best player prior to the injury.  He should be back in a couple weeks.  

Then you add in Keaschall who showed he belongs in the MLB.  It did not overwhelm him at all.  Then you have Mccusker mashing in the minors.    

The hitting roster,  all in all I think will be solid to above average.  

The pitching will carry us this year.  They continue to do their job on the starter front,  and the bullpen seems to be shaking off the rust and finding their roles.   

The nuts and bolts is this is still a top 8 roster in baseball (when healthy).  I still have my bet with my son that they will be in the playoffs.  I also fully stand by that they will be right around 5 games over 500 by the end of June.  They look primed to go on a bit of a run here.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Looks like my call they they were going to go on a bit of a run was spot on.   They still need to continue to hit more,  but the pitching will keep you in most games.  We are still probably a month or more away from being full strength but we are well on our way.