Guardians 2, Twins 1: Long, Dry Rain Delay Begets Short, Dry Walkoff Loss

[Steven Trefz]

A mostly rainless three-hour rain delay threatened to wreck the Minnesota Twins' momentum, and simultaneously turn the event into a Wednesday morning game. Here's how the latest heart-crushing defeat to the rival Guardians transpired.

 

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Chris Paddack 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (76 pitches, 47 strikes (62%)
Home Runs: Ty France (3)
Bottom 3 WPA: Louis Varland (-.367), Edouard Julien (-.165), Trevor Larnach (-.138)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

Chris Paddack entered Tuesday night's divisional battle winless on the season, and unable to last beyond five innings in any of his first six starts. Paddack's opponent, Tanner Bibee, had achieved a 2-2 record on the season, but likewise often fails to complete six full innings. With the Twins bullpen fully rested and the Guardians bullpen completely taxed, the advantage for the evening seemed to lean in favor of Minnesota. 

Three Up, Three Down
Bibee started the game by retiring the top of the Twins lineup in order, with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa striking out in quick fashion. In fact, Bibee took down the first eleven men that he faced, with a Correa double with two out in the top of the fourth inning finally snapping the streak. 

Paddack also was rolling early, allowing only a single across the first two frames and keeping his pitch count under control compared to his previous outings. Paddack's run of success got turned around 108.8 mph to start the bottom of the third inning, however, when Bo Naylor took a gift fastball on a full count to the middle of the right field seats for a 1-0 early Guardians lead. Two batters later, Steven Kwan took Paddack deep into the right-field gap for what looked to be another extra-base hit. In case you didn't catch it on Saturday, though, Buxton plays out there, and he's Superman.

Buxton's amazing grab got amplified when Paddack allowed a single to the following batter, Gabriel Arias, thereby making that essentially a run-saving catch. Paddack got out of the threat, and finished five innings of four-hit baseball.

Ty France is Him
When Paddack left the game, he knew he wasn't going to take the hard-luck loss, because in the top of the fifth inning, France decided that a Bibee fastball should become a souvenir for some lucky fan in the right-center bleachers. All square at one apiece, thanks to this moonshot by France.

Bullpen Time... for the Twins, at Least
Paddack finished the fifth inning having only thrown 76 pitches, but it didn't matter. He was never going to see the sixth inning.

Instead, Brock Stewart took the hill and took care of business in the bottom of the sixth. While Bibee kept on cruising through the Twins lineup against anyone not named France (see top of the seventh for Kwan stealing a double away from the slugger and gunning him down at first in the process), the Twins' bullpen parade hit a brief hiccup in the bottom of the seventh when Griffin Jax got the early call yet again and surrendered a one-out double to Daniel Schneemann. What ensued were two filthy, filthy, filllllllllthy strikeouts of Naylor and Angel Martinez to end the threat and send us to the eighth still knotted up 1-1.

Who Flinches?
Cade Smith got the call for the top of the eighth, and he flinched a little. Christian Vázquez went the other way for a single with one out, and Buxton induced a two-out walk to put runners at first and second for Correa. Smith got Correa to fly out weakly on a 2-0 pitch, however, to put an end to the rally.

Jhoan Duran got the call to face the top of the Guardians order in the bottom of the eighth, and Kwan led off with an opposite-field shot of his own that went directly to the only man on that side of the diamond, new Twins All-Star candidate Jonah Bride. Arias struck out swinging, which set up the latest edition of "José Ramírez vs. Duran." 100+ mph of Duran took this edition, and to the ninth we journeyed, still tied up

All Good Games Must Come to an End
The Twins and Guardians entered the ninth inning each with a 50/50 chance of winning the game according to FanGraphs. The twenty or so fans still in attendance, and the 44 fans still watching at home wondered if we were headed to a Wednesday morning finish. Emmanuel Clase took the mound for the top of the ninth, and he made quick work of Trevor Larnach. Clase couldn't solve France, however, and the hittin' machine stopped at first base this time. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. came in to steal a base, but Naylor's arm wouldn't allow it. Threat neutralized, advantage Cleveland.

Louis Varland entered the bottom of the ninth inning with one goal: to make sure there would be a tenth inning. He failed. Kyle Manzardo took the third pitch that he saw out of the park for another Cleveland walk-off winner against the Twins.

Ugh.

What’s Next?
The Twins look to bounce back and re-take the advantage in this four-game series on Wednesday evening. Twins righty Pablo Lopez (2-1, 2.08 ERA) will make his second start following his short IL stint, and he will face fellow righty Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.96 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 5:10pm CDT.

Postgame Interviews
Coming Soon!

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Topa	15	0	27	0	0	42
Varland	20	19	0	0	3	42
Jax	0	19	0	0	13	32
Stewart	0	6	0	0	17	23
Durán	0	7	0	0	13	20
Alcalá	0	0	0	19	0	19
Sands	13	0	0	0	0	13
Coulombe	12	0	0	0	0	12

 

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[bean5302]

Nice start by Paddack. Lots of balls in play, but managed to get excellent results. The Twins were up against good pitching tonight and the lineup struggled apart from France having a night he really needed. 

Julien looked pretty rough tonight. He's been more or less holding his own in production recently, but way, way too many at bats serving as a shoulder bat rack. 5 pitch strikeout not swinging at a single pitch in his 2nd at bat. The he swings at back to back pitches in/near the dirt after seeing the same pitch in the same target zone on the first pitch? It's the same pitch... it's not moving 12" more. I think Julien's feeling the pressure big time.

[Mike Sixel]

The offense really hates Paddock.....

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Minnesota Twins are more embarrassing than DJT?

Not political.....Just Rocco?

 

[Blyleven2011]

Waiting for the game to start , we were treated to the saints first game of the doubleheader and the kernels game ...

Pitchers duel between Cleveland and twin , unfortunately we lost and now have to start another winning streak ...

One knew the winning streak wasn't going to last ...

[Parfigliano]

Tough loss.  Going up 2-0 in the 1st series against CLE would have been huge.

[thelanges5]

Per Gleeman: This was the Twins' ninth walk-off loss in Cleveland during the past five seasons.

2025 — 1
2024 — 3
2023 — 0
2022 — 3
2021 — 2

Guardos Devil Magic

[exeoud]

Another year of crapping the bed against Cleveland. Twins treat these as just another game, Cleveland understand these games make the most difference in the standings, but Twins can't understand it might be good to not lose 2/3 of your games against your main competition in the division. I remember numerous times they've adjusted their rotation for upcoming series against the Twins so their top guys are lined up to pitch while Twins treat it like an interleague series against the Marlins. In the rare case the Twins actually do beat this team they throw position players for multiple innings to save their bullpen for remaining games while Rocco burns through the whole staff giving each guy 1 inning at a time. Season series 2022: 13-6 Cleveland, 2023: 7-6 Cleveland, 2024 10-3 Cleveland, 15-30 in the last 3 years. Embarassing.

[Mark G]

"Paddock finished the 5th inning having thrown only 76 pitches, but it didn't matter.  He was never going to see the 6th inning."

If Steven is right, and there is no reason to believe he is not, what does that tell us?  I read that as saying Rocco never considered letting him pitch more than 5, no matter what his pitch count was or how effective he was; again, plan A going into the game was to use 5 pitchers.  Am I misreading this?  

Many years ago I had a supervisor who got extremely frustrated with a problem we were having.  One day he stood up and said "we have got to have a plan; we have GOT to have a plan.  I don't even care if it is a GOOD plan!"  And he walked away gesturing.  I think him and Rocco must have gone to the same school of management.  🥴

[h2oface]

One run from the offense. Should have saved a couple from yesterday.

Baldelli Ball now has Coloumbe and Varland after Jax and Duran? Back to pulling the starter doing well with 76 pitches. I thought he might have progressed after the Ryan and Ober success.

Too bad our guys watch so many of those right down the middle like Varland offered. If they would swing at those instead of the sliders a foot off the plate........ Maybe then would score more consistently.

[Aerodeliria]

The Twins usually don't win these nailbiters. When I saw it was 1-1 in the 8th, I didn't bother to continue. 

[Karbo]

Rocco has never been good managing a pitching staff. He has to learn to trust the starter until he is fading, or give some relievers a 2nd inning. Using 4 relievers per game just isn't going to last thru a whole season. I don't care what is analytic sheet says.

[mikelink45]

It is fascinating to see all the comments that cover what I was thinking as I watched the end of the game - why four relievers again?  30 games into the season and Varland has been in 15!  and six more have been in 10 - 12.  Too many.   Can our Ace go 8? 

France has shocked me in a good way.  I apologize for my skepticism, but this low scoring game highlights, again, our need for productive bats. The light hitting Cleveland team had 5 players with BA of 250 - 333.  We had three above 250 is starting lineup - France, Lee and Bride and Bride has 19 ABs.  Without Bride's sss France and Lee are 267 and 256.

Julien is not cutting it as leadoff, but who goes there now that we know Wallner is out for a few more weeks and Keaschall months?   

[TwinsDr2021]

Back to Doom and gloom?  after winning 4 in row they lose a tough 2 - 1, I didn't watch it but both teams threw less than 130 pitches and only gave up 13 hits and 3 walks combined. I am not taking anything away from this game except; damn looks like it was a tough night for hitters (both teams).

Lets see how the next two games go, they weren't going to sweep them and 2 - 2 or better was and is a win for this series,

[karcherd]

If they are not going to trust Paddack to go a third time thru the order, he needs to go to the bullpen.  I want somebody with more upside in that slot.  We can not continue developing pitchers to only go 4 or 5 innings.  It is not sustainable over the course of a season.  And by using 5 pitchers a game, the odds are one will be off that game.  And keep Duran for the 9th, he is your best reliever, keep him pitching in the 9th.

[Peter]

Crap rain delay-they could’ve played earlier-double heartbreak with twins loss and referees screwing wild last night-Pablo today twins will get win! 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I won't lie. I dozed off before the first pitch so no idea really what happened to the bats last night. But 2-1 losses are always frustrating (right, Peter!!) and the Twins continue to struggle in one run games. Pablo's on the mound today so the Twins have the edge when it comes to the starting pitcher. Rebound and get the win.

[Patzky]

Paddack is fine. The bats left their hits at 6:10 pm apparently. 

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

"Paddock finished the 5th inning having thrown only 76 pitches, but it didn't matter.  He was never going to see the 6th inning."

If Steven is right, and there is no reason to believe he is not, what does that tell us?  I read that as saying Rocco never considered letting him pitch more than 5, no matter what his pitch count was or how effective he was; again, plan A going into the game was to use 5 pitchers.  Am I misreading this?  

Many years ago I had a supervisor who got extremely frustrated with a problem we were having.  One day he stood up and said "we have got to have a plan; we have GOT to have a plan.  I don't even care if it is a GOOD plan!"  And he walked away gesturing.  I think him and Rocco must have gone to the same school of management.  🥴

Pitch count is so 2010. All the cool kids now worship at the alter of "3rd time through the order."

Requires even less actual thought.

And less thought is clear goal of spreadsheet management. 

 

[Whitey333]

It was a good game.  They lost 2-1.  Not the end of the world.  We should rebound Wednesday with Lopez.  Go Twins!!

[Bodie]

3 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

The Twins usually don't win these nailbiters. When I saw it was 1-1 in the 8th, I didn't bother to continue. 

Be a fan... the Twins are capable of scoring in the 8th or 9th innings!

Extra innings, with the little league rules?  Not so much... who con be expected to score a run with no outs and a man on 2B? 

Sac bunt, sacrifice fly for a run?  No, no, no!  Trust the process - the people who came up with it are smarter than you!

[Patzky]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Nice start by Paddack. Lots of balls in play, but managed to get excellent results. The Twins were up against good pitching tonight and the lineup struggled apart from France having a night he really needed. 

Julien looked pretty rough tonight. He's been more or less holding his own in production recently, but way, way too many at bats serving as a shoulder bat rack. 5 pitch strikeout not swinging at a single pitch in his 2nd at bat. The he swings at back to back pitches in/near the dirt after seeing the same pitch in the same target zone on the first pitch? It's the same pitch... it's not moving 12" more. I think Julien's feeling the pressure big time.

Between Royce, Brooks and Bride, Julien might not be here by this time next week.

[Patzky]

48 minutes ago, karcherd said:

If they are not going to trust Paddack to go a third time thru the order, he needs to go to the bullpen.  I want somebody with more upside in that slot.  We can not continue developing pitchers to only go 4 or 5 innings.  It is not sustainable over the course of a season.  And by using 5 pitchers a game, the odds are one will be off that game.  And keep Duran for the 9th, he is your best reliever, keep him pitching in the 9th.

He's a competent five starter on a team with two capable backups in AAA. Last night notwithstanding the bullpen has been just fine of late. 

 

Fussing about a single pitcher is easier than worrying about the disappearing bats, apparently. He's fine.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

It is fascinating to see all the comments that cover what I was thinking as I watched the end of the game - why four relievers again?  30 games into the season and Varland has been in 15!  and six more have been in 10 - 12.  Too many.   Can our Ace go 8? 

France has shocked me in a good way.  I apologize for my skepticism, but this low scoring game highlights, again, our need for productive bats. The light hitting Cleveland team had 5 players with BA of 250 - 333.  We had three above 250 is starting lineup - France, Lee and Bride and Bride has 19 ABs.  Without Bride's sss France and Lee are 267 and 256.

Julien is not cutting it as leadoff, but who goes there now that we know Wallner is out for a few more weeks and Keaschall months?   

How do we feel about Brooks maybe leading off? Brooks (2b) Buxton Lewis (dh-3b) Larnach Correa France Jeffers Bride(3b-dh) Bader. 

 

Keep Julien Gasper Vazquez and maybe McCusker in lieu of Keirsey (or Gasper)

[BrokenCompass]

Louie ain't fooling anyone. 

[Doctor Gast]

The Twins are really missing heart & soul, Mr Clutch (Polanco). He has won many games for SEA this season, won the MLB player of the week, last week & for an encore, he hit 2, almost 3 HRs for all of SEA's 5 RBIs & won the game last night. Even after surgery this offseason, he is still plagued by a sore knee that occurred after playing for months on an injured knee in '22, which has kept him mainly at DH & batting  LH.

[Danchat]

I’m surprised the discussion here is more about the bullpen when the primary cause of loss is only scoring one run. The pitching staff going 8 innings with only 1 run allowed is a formula for success. 

[karcherd]

40 minutes ago, Patzky said:

He's a competent five starter on a team with two capable backups in AAA. Last night notwithstanding the bullpen has been just fine of late. 

 

Fussing about a single pitcher is easier than worrying about the disappearing bats, apparently. He's fine.

He is actually the number four pitcher on this team.  I want to set the pitching up to be successful this year and the years going forward.  The best way to do that is to put Paddack in the bullpen and put one of the one youngsters in the rotation.  You will get the same production from the starting pitching and may actually improve the bullpen, that is where Paddack's value.  This way you find out what you have in your pitching pipeline.  And if you have to go down to your number 9 or 10 pitcher, you can stretch him back out and move him back.  You can't just look at one game, look at what sets the organization up for success and running Paddack out there every 5 days for 5 innings does not do that.  

And yes the offense needs to continue the progress made against the sisters of the poor.  

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Pitch count is so 2010. All the cool kids now worship at the alter of "3rd time through the order."

Requires even less actual thought.

And less thought is clear goal of spreadsheet management. 

 

I thought about it. Paddack over his career has a lower OPS against (.678) facing a batter a third time than second(.788) and slightly lower than the first (.681). Most pitchers have a greater OPS the third part due to the skew of facing only the top of the line up the third time. It could mean nothing. It could mean that on Paddack’s good days you stick with him longer and have less patience on his bad days. If they aren’t going to stick with him on his good starts I don’t see why he is in the rotation.

 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Julien is not cutting it as leadoff

Over the last 5 games he's 2 for 16 with 6 walks. That's an OBP of .363. Among qualified batters, Spencer Torkleson ranks 15th with a .362 OBP.

What are your expectations for a leadoff hitter? Is a top 15 OBP not good enough?