Guardians 2, Twins 1: Long, Dry Rain Delay Begets Short, Dry Walkoff Loss

[DJL44]

Paddack may not have been giving up runs, but the outs were pretty loud. He only had 2 strikeouts. Rocco made the right move.

[jorgenswest]

I thought the best route to a win was to pitch Duran against the top of the order in the 8th score a run in the 9th and bring back Duran to finish it.

They needed that stolen base to get into scoring position in the 9th inning. Prior to last night base runners were 21/21 against Clase. His only caught stealing in his career was in 2019 when a runner was caught at home on a wild pitch. If the Twins are going to carry a player on the roster as a pinch runner/defensive sub they need someone who is going to get that stolen base against Clase every time.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Between Royce, Brooks and Bride, Julien might not be here by this time next week.

Julien stays over Gasper and Clemens

[Parfigliano]

8 hours ago, Mark G said:

"Paddock finished the 5th inning having thrown only 76 pitches, but it didn't matter.  He was never going to see the 6th inning."

If Steven is right, and there is no reason to believe he is not, what does that tell us?  I read that as saying Rocco never considered letting him pitch more than 5, no matter what his pitch count was or how effective he was; again, plan A going into the game was to use 5 pitchers.  Am I misreading this?  

Many years ago I had a supervisor who got extremely frustrated with a problem we were having.  One day he stood up and said "we have got to have a plan; we have GOT to have a plan.  I don't even care if it is a GOOD plan!"  And he walked away gesturing.  I think him and Rocco must have gone to the same school of management.  🥴

Rocco needs to go. He can't adapt to a situation.  He has his script going into a game and that script will be followed.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I’m surprised the discussion here is more about the bullpen when the primary cause of loss is only scoring one run. The pitching staff going 8 innings with only 1 run allowed is a formula for success. 

Bringing logic to the discussion?

You poor, naive summer child.....

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I’m surprised the discussion here is more about the bullpen when the primary cause of loss is only scoring one run. The pitching staff going 8 innings with only 1 run allowed is a formula for success. 

Clearly the offense went missing. However....

 Speaking only for myself, I tend to focus on things that I think were mistakes, and/or could have been avoided.

 There isn't much of anything I think could have been done differently last.night to knock in more runs...except, you know, to knock in more runs. I'm open to ideas there. 

But unlike "hit better, ferpetesakes," there were decisions made last night that I think could have/shocks have been done differently. 

Decisions can actually be altered. "Hit better" feels good but I don't know that it actually has any impact.

So that's one possible reason some people focus on things that can change.

YMMV.

 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Pitch count is so 2010. All the cool kids now worship at the alter of "3rd time through the order."

Requires even less actual thought.

And less thought is clear goal of spreadsheet management. 

 

Chief, I think you're better than this. Seems "spreadsheet management" would have taken Ober out after five or six innings on Monday instead of letting him pitch into the eighth. Seems "spreadsheet management" would have pulled Ryan after five or six on Sunday, instead of letting him go seven. 

I wasn't able to watch/listen last night, but what I see is Paddack having gone 99 pitches last outing (and it seems "spreadsheet management" wouldn't have let him face six batters three times in that game, which he did, by the way), his having already given up hits to two of the three guys he would have faced in the sixth, his having put the first two batters on in the fourth and a bullpen that was about as rested as could be.

And there's stuff that none of us can see and none of us have access to. For example, it sounds like the decisions made around the rain delay were screwy, so who knows how many starts and stops there were to his prep during a three-hour rain delay. (And why don't people complain when guys get pulled early when they are struggling, when "spreadsheet management" would say that they need to get a full five innings out of that day's starter?)

The Twins didn't lose last night because Rocco's "spreadsheet management" didn't let Paddack come out for the sixth. They lost because they only scored one run. The winning percentage when you score only one run is pretty low. (I'd give you the exact percentage, but it would have to come from a spreadsheet. 😀)

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Chief, I think you're better than this. Seems "spreadsheet management" would have taken Ober out after five or six innings on Monday, instead of letting him pitch into the eighth. Seems "spreadsheet management" would have pulled Ryan after five or six on Sunday, instead of letting him go seven. 

I wasn't able to watch/listen last night, but what I see is Paddack having gone 99 pitches last outing (and it seems "spreadsheet management" wouldn't have let him face six batters three times in that game, which he did, by the way), his having already given up hits to two of the three guys he would have faced in the sixth, his having put the first two batters on in the fourth and a bullpen that's about as rested as could be.

And there's stuff that none of us can see and none of us have access to. For example, it sounds like the decisions made around the rain delay were screwy, so who knows how many starts and stops there were to his prep during a three-hour rain delay. (And why don't people complain when guys get pulled early when they are struggling, when "spreadsheet management" would say that they need to get a full five innings out of that day's starter?)

The Twins didn't lose last night because Rocco's "spreadsheet management" didn't let Paddack come out for the sixth. They lost because they only scored one run. The winning percentage when you score only one run is pretty low. (I'd give you the exact percentage, but it would have to come from a spreadsheet. 😀)

Preach. 

[bean5302]

58 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Paddack may not have been giving up runs, but the outs were pretty loud. He only had 2 strikeouts. Rocco made the right move.

THIS.

Paddack got the results, but the problem is he looked like Greg Maddux pranking Kris Bryant out there. Every hit, Greg doesn't even look back "Warning track?"

Paddack only managed 2 strike outs in 5 innings and he had an average 95.0mph exit velocity. Paddack wasn't fooling anybody at all. There was literally a 90% contact rate on balls outside the zone. It was like a home run derby out there when the batter gets out of the groove. Sending him back out to the mound would have been playing with fire in a very close, important game.

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

 They lost because they only scored one run. The winning percentage when you score only one run is pretty low. (I'd give you the exact percentage, but it would have to come from a spreadsheet. 😀)

AI tells me the winning percentage across MLB when scoring 1 run is 14.86%.

Sounds high, but that's what it says. 

Maybe I got "A1" results.....

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

Between Royce, Brooks and Bride, Julien might not be here by this time next week.

Honestly, I think Julien could do with a change of scenery, but he could also do with a mental shift.

It feels like he's pressing hard with the memory of last year's sudden demotion after being considered a core piece of the Twins 2 weeks earlier. He obviously knows Royce is just a few days away, and we're seeing a lot of the same stuff we saw last year when Julien got ice cold.

[Doc Lenz]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Paddack may not have been giving up runs, but the outs were pretty loud. He only had 2 strikeouts. Rocco made the right move.

Thank goodness he is the only pitcher that gives up loud outs on the staff.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Doc Lenz said:

Thank goodness he is the only pitcher that gives up loud outs on the staff.

Every pitcher gives up hard contact. Just not on every single ball they throw. I get the impression you're angry at the metric or phrases related to them "hard contact" or "exit velocity." Let me put it an old fashioned way.

Pretty much every ball Paddack threw came rocketing back past him like a hypersonic missile. He just got really lucky the balls flew directly at players in the field.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I’m surprised the discussion here is more about the bullpen when the primary cause of loss is only scoring one run. The pitching staff going 8 innings with only 1 run allowed is a formula for success. 

Similar to the 3-0 loss against the White Sox. Too much complaining about Paddack or the pitching in general. Really hard to win games 1-0.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Pretty much every ball Paddack threw came rocketing back past him like a hypersonic missile. He just got really lucky the balls flew directly at players in the field.

The Twins need to pump-and-dump Paddack. Better to pull him early than let him blow up in the 6th inning and destroy any potential trade value.

[The Great Hambino]

Straight from the Miriam-Webster dictionary:

Analytics (noun)

1. The method of logical analysis

2. Anything Rocco Baldelli does that I don't like

[Jeff K]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins need to pump-and-dump Paddack. Better to pull him early than let him blow up in the 6th inning and destroy any potential trade value.

That is how I feel as well.  Paddack is an adequate 5th starter; however, with our quality younger arms, I'd like them in the rotation.  However, if Paddack can continue to be a reasonable 5th starter, he will have some value at the trade deadline.  Perhaps he will be worth a good back-up catcher.  If that happens, then keeping Paddack in the rotation as trade bait makes the most sense to me.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd rather win 3- 1 run games & lose 1 blowout than win 1 blowout & lose 3- 1 run games. 

[thelanges5]

Blame the offense! We have lost 29 straight games when we score fewer than 4 runs 🤮

Me to Paddack:

[IndianaTwin]

46 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

AI tells me the winning percentage across MLB when scoring 1 run is 14.86%.

Sounds high, but that's what it says. 

Maybe I got "A1" results.....

 

(But yeah, that does seem high.)

[Patzky]

10 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Blame the offense! We have lost 29 straight games when we score fewer than 4 runs 🤮

Me to Paddack:

This sheriff-hating is getting kind of embarrassing. He's the one sheriff who hasn't earned it.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Nice start by Paddack. Lots of balls in play, but managed to get excellent results. The Twins were up against good pitching tonight and the lineup struggled apart from France having a night he really needed. 

Julien looked pretty rough tonight. He's been more or less holding his own in production recently, but way, way too many at bats serving as a shoulder bat rack. 5 pitch strikeout not swinging at a single pitch in his 2nd at bat. The he swings at back to back pitches in/near the dirt after seeing the same pitch in the same target zone on the first pitch? It's the same pitch... it's not moving 12" more. I think Julien's feeling the pressure big time.

The issue with Eddie is “he’s been feeling the pressure” since about May 15 of last year. He needs a psychologist’s help IMO. The bat rack approach is waaay too prevalent and has been for months & months. Can’t hit .210, regardless of how many times you walk.

France hit the ball hard at least 3 times - COACHING at 1B and veteran’s lack of awareness (France) rounding first base and getting thrown out is a big deal in an extremely tight game!! Can’t happen.

[Patzky]

57 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

THIS.

Paddack got the results, but the problem is he looked like Greg Maddux pranking Kris Bryant out there. Every hit, Greg doesn't even look back "Warning track?"

Paddack only managed 2 strike outs in 5 innings and he had an average 95.0mph exit velocity. Paddack wasn't fooling anybody at all. There was literally a 90% contact rate on balls outside the zone. It was like a home run derby out there when the batter gets out of the groove. Sending him back out to the mound would have been playing with fire in a very close, important game.

If he was really that horrible and had those results then we should be virtually guaranteed two shutouts against that team today and tomorrow.

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, Patzky said:

This sheriff-hating is getting kind of embarrassing. He's the one sheriff who hasn't earned it.

Didn’t understand your comment initially - I think we’re on same page:

Pretty sure his ERA after his first start is under 3.00…… shouldn’t have to shutout Teams to get a favorable outcome!!

I’m not in love with Paddack in the rotation (lack of K’s & walks too many) but one has to be fair - he’s pitched well (well as expected) in last 5 consecutive outings.

[JD-TWINS]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd rather win 3- 1 run games & lose 1 blowout than win 1 blowout & lose 3- 1 run games. 

3-1 always beats 1-3……

[thelanges5]

Ober also allowed 1 run against the Guardos but he got 11 runs of support. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, Patzky said:

Between Royce, Brooks and Bride, Julien might not be here by this time next week.

This could get interesting. You have to figure that Clemens goes when Lewis comes back. Then it gets a little dicey. When Castro is ready (should be soon), who goes?  Bride has raked since he came and the Twins coaching staff fixed his swing (can't believe I just wrote that). Not only that Bride was a .276/.367/.461 (.818) hitter last year with 11 HRs and a 55/31 SO/BB ratio in 262 PAs and palys 3B, 1B, 2B, and LF in a pinch. Sounds like a good guy to have around. Gasper hasn't been good at the plate (.583 OPS overall, but .686 in the last 7 games), but is a 3rd catcher and he's been a lot better than Keirsey. I was beating the drum for Keirsey last year but it looks like the FO was smarter than me; Keirsey hasn't shown/can't hit MLB pitching. Do we make Castro the 4th OF until Wallner comes back and send Keirsey back to AAA? Do we keep Keirsey for his speed and OF glove and send someone else down? Who is that, Julien or Gaspar? Two weeks ago that would have been an easy answer, now, I'm not so sure.  Are we going to give McCusker a shot in the OF?

I would make a series of moves when Lewis and Castro come back in the next week or two. Lewis for Clemens, Castro for Keirsey, and McCusker for either Julien or Gaspar. Still probably Gaspar goes but that could change over the next week. McCusker and Julien/Gaspar are then playing for who goes down when Wallner comes back. Better hitter stays since none of those guys offer much defensive upside. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Honestly, I think Julien could do with a change of scenery, but he could also do with a mental shift.

It feels like he's pressing hard with the memory of last year's sudden demotion after being considered a core piece of the Twins 2 weeks earlier. He obviously knows Royce is just a few days away, and we're seeing a lot of the same stuff we saw last year when Julien got ice cold.

Just a reflection - no big disagreement here…….my recollection was Eddie had 7 HR and was hitting well overall with good OBP up to April 27……(future star coming off ‘23)…then 6-7 weeks of very BAD…..sent down to regroup.

He didn’t shine that much in St Paul either…….came back up and was blah to bad the remainder of the year. My point is he’s had plenty of time to heal as an individual……I think he needs help between the ears if he isn’t already receiving it from organization. He’s mentally locked up quite often in the box - appears to be anyway. Not trying to diminish the emotional side or psyche a hitter needs - it’s not easy - but guys get roster spots & get paid to perform.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, mickster said:

Julien stays over Gasper and Clemens

I gave a thumbs up to this because that’s probably the case but GASPER, with his supposed 3rd string catcher capabilities, and his switch hitting may supplant Eddie? Brooks now seems to be at top of heep at 2B and Castro can flex between OF & IF……… Gasper provides a relatively similar offensive potential to Eddie at this point.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Twins 'expected win-loss record' is 17-13. They've had some absolutely gut punch losses to start the season. It seems, knock on wood, that they have worked out some of the kinks and are getting themselves settled. Keep stacking series wins between now and Memorial Day, which is the first benchmark point on the baseball calendar.