Zebby’s Velocity and Three Other Things That Might Matter from the Twins' First Spring Training Game

[John Bonnes]

It’s great to have baseball back, but our excitement often means reading too much into spring training’s game results. That said, there are things to notice beyond the box score, so here are some observations from the Twins' 3-1 win over the Atlanta Braves on Saturday afternoon.

Zebby Matthews’ Velocity
Twins fans who don’t know the full story of Twins pitcher Zebby Matthews might view the 6.69 ERA he posted in his rookie year as disappointing. They are overlooking his meteoric rise – from Eighth round draft pick to the majors in two years, which was fueled by an increase in velocity. 

Apparently, he’s not done yet.

Last year, Matthews’ four-seam fastball averaged 94.9 mph. In yesterday’s first spring outing – where velocities are usually lower – he threw 14 four-seam fastballs. The slowest was 95.4 mph. The fastest was 97.3 mph and the average of those pitches was 96.5 mph. He did all this while registering 19 strikes in the 29 pitches he threw.

It was not unexpected. “So far this spring, I've been sitting around 95, 97. So, can't really complain too much about that,” said Matthews after the game. “Feel like we're in a good spot.”

“We” includes the Twins, since they will likely have him stashed in St. Paul as the #2 option if the Twins need to swap out a member of their starting rotation. That depth is something the team lacked last year when they rushed him to the majors. It’s also something that can come in handy if the team needs to make some deals during the season or at the trade deadline to aid their pursuit of regaining the AL Central crown.

Automatic Balls Strikes (ABS)
In the first inning, Matthews gave up a lead-off double, but got out of the inning thanks to catcher Christian Vazquez challenging a “ball” call by the umpire. The call was changed to a strike upon further review, and that third strike call ended the inning. Matthews was not so sure.

“I was like, I might be away a little bit,” said Matthews. “But no, we clipped the zone. So that was cool to see.”

 MLB is using spring training games as a testing ground for a “challenge” system for Automatic Balls & Strikes or ABS. Within seconds after the umpire’s call, the catcher, batter, or pitcher may challenge it. The challenge is announced, and almost immediately, the pitch is put on the scoreboard, allowing fans to see it from various angles and zoom in on it to see if it edges the zone. In the case of Matthews’ pitch, the edge of the ball touched the strike zone. That’s a strike.  Last year in Triple-A, the average challenge took 17 seconds, and yesterday’s crowd cheered for the dramatic result.

Matthews’ reaction also shows another aspect: that pitchers might not be in the best position to challenge. Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli talked earlier this week about how the team might handle these when they come to real MLB games. 

“You’re going to see the catchers using opportunities to challenge behind the players, and the hitters should do it,” said Baldelli. “The pitchers are not in a position to do this as well as those other guys. They’re just not. It’s been proven that’s the case.”

The team worked with the system starting on Thursday in live BP. Everyone was encouraged to try it to gain experience. In games, a team can challenge calls until they miss two; then, they cannot challenge calls for the rest of the game. But in spring training games, Baldelli isn’t worried about the penalties for challenging too many. These games don’t count, and he feels it’s important for players to become comfortable with the process by using it.

Justin Topa Gives Up A Run But….
Justin Topa pitched the third inning of Saturday’s game and gave up the Twins only run on three singles to his first four batters. Twins fans didn’t see Topa much last year due to a knee injury and other setbacks, so I expect I’ll get some questions about today’s performance. Here’s what I saw.

One of the singles was hard hit. One was a soft hit. The three singles came on three different pitch types: cutter, sinker, and changeup. His sinker and cutter had about the same velocity as they had in 2023 when he was with Seattle. And he got out of the inning by relying on a sweeper for six of the last eight pitches he threw. The results weren’t great, but I also didn’t see any red flags.

Luke Keaschall is Already Hitting
Like Matthews, Twins infield prospect Luke Keaschall launched himself up the prospect charts last year (landing at #3 on Twins Daily’s list) before having to shut down his season for Tommy John surgery. We likely won’t see him ready to play in the field until mid-March, but driving in two runs off the first pitch he sees this spring is encouraging. Because, also like Matthews, he could end up having a role on the team before the end of the year. 

 

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[Karbo]

Thanks for the report!

[jorgenswest]

I would agree that there were no red flags for Topa. I also don’t think he did anything today to offer hope that he can repeat his one good season. The velocity on his sinker, which was his primary pitch in that good season, centered about 91. In 2023 his average velocity on the sinker was 95. I don’t think it is unusual for velocity to be lower at the beginning of spring training. I do think the Twins need to see average velocity hover around 95 before putting him on the 26 man roster. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't want Matthews stashed just because he can be stashed. The games in April matter; if he's one of the five best, break camp with the big league team. And not only for the final record, this club has regularly started off slow and the fan disinterest through the summer has to be a correlation in those seasons.

Put together the best team from Day 1, not the best team we might have in August assuming injuries and not assuming poor performance from the guys first in the hierarchy. Stop basing the roster off of hypotheticals.

[GNess]

Encouraging Matthews' velocity has potentially improved. With his control that could be significant.

Thanks for the report.

[jorgenswest]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't want Matthews stashed just because he can be stashed. The games in April matter; if he's one of the five best, break camp with the big league team. And not only for the final record, this club has regularly started off slow and the fan disinterest through the summer has to be a correlation in those seasons.

Put together the best team from Day 1, not the best team we might have in August assuming injuries and not assuming poor performance from the guys first in the hierarchy. Stop basing the roster off of hypotheticals.

I do agree about the Twins needing to select the best 5. I have no idea how the determine which pitchers are the best 5. Data that I have access to from spring games is virtually worthless. The sample is far too small and skewed even further by varying levels of competition. The skilled eyes of those seeing the pitchers every day in training and games will be the best measure.

I firmly believe spring training matters. I also know that spring training stats are meaningless.

[bean5302]

What if the pitchers were graded?
80 Pablo Lopez
70 Joe Ryan
70 Bailey Ober
65 David Festa
65 Zebby Matthews
------------------------------
60 Simeon Woods Richardson (AAA)
60 Eiberson Castellano (returned to Phillies)
55 Chris Paddack (DFA, released)
40 Marco Raya
30 Travis Adams

In week 2, Ryan has forearm tightness and needs TJ.
In week 4, Zebby Matthews strains a hamstring, out 6-8 weeks.

Now you have 40 score Marco Raya in the rotation instead of 60 score Castellano. Giving up a little bit of presumed quality for depth isn't a terrible game plan. Guys are almost certain to get injuries thougout the year, and starts in May and June means just as much as having what you think will likely be a 2% better chance to win games in April.

[tony&rodney]

39 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't want Matthews stashed just because he can be stashed. The games in April matter; if he's one of the five best, break camp with the big league team. And not only for the final record, this club has regularly started off slow and the fan disinterest through the summer has to be a correlation in those seasons.

Put together the best team from Day 1, not the best team we might have in August assuming injuries and not assuming poor performance from the guys first in the hierarchy. Stop basing the roster off of hypotheticals.

Good luck with that argument. Maybe you will have better luck, but I have tried that several times and been clobbered. Most recently, the consensus was for Paddack in an article and in another article related to whether Simeon Woods Richardson deserved a starting slot. To sum up the argument opposed to putting together the best team, Spring Training isn't important and options mean that veterans earn first shot. Of course, all ideas need to be considered.

I have been quite high on Matthews and Festa and hope they stay healthy and make their next opportunity to pitch in MLB something that solidifies their positions. I'm a fan of talent first team building.

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

What if the pitchers were graded?
80 Pablo Lopez
70 Joe Ryan
70 Bailey Ober
65 David Festa
65 Zebby Matthews
------------------------------
60 Simeon Woods Richardson (AAA)
60 Eiberson Castellano (returned to Phillies)
55 Chris Paddack (DFA, released)
40 Marco Raya
30 Travis Adams

In week 2, Ryan has forearm tightness and needs TJ.
In week 4, Zebby Matthews strains a hamstring, out 6-8 weeks.

Now you have 40 score Marco Raya in the rotation instead of 60 score Castellano. Giving up a little bit of presumed quality for depth isn't a terrible game plan. Guys are almost certain to get injuries thougout the year, and starts in May and June means just as much as having what you think will likely be a 2% better chance to win games in April.

You forgot a player you don't like too much, Andrew Morris. Morris slots above Castellano. If Castellano looks that good, the Twins will keep him, either in the bullpen or in AA via a trade. You also forgot Cory Lewis and C. J. Culpepper.

However, I get your point that if Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and a couple of others are injured and miss significant time, the Twins are in trouble.

[thelanges5]

We are going to use at least eight pitchers this year. Matthews will join the big club at some point. Great to see him be effective today.
 

Thanks for the Keaschall update, was wondering when he’d hit the field.⚾️

[tarheeltwinsfan]

54 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

What if the pitchers were graded?
80 Pablo Lopez
70 Joe Ryan
70 Bailey Ober
65 David Festa
65 Zebby Matthews
------------------------------
60 Simeon Woods Richardson (AAA)
60 Eiberson Castellano (returned to Phillies)
55 Chris Paddack (DFA, released)
40 Marco Raya
30 Travis Adams

In week 2, Ryan has forearm tightness and needs TJ.
In week 4, Zebby Matthews strains a hamstring, out 6-8 weeks.

Now you have 40 score Marco Raya in the rotation instead of 60 score Castellano. Giving up a little bit of presumed quality for depth isn't a terrible game plan. Guys are almost certain to get injuries thougout the year, and starts in May and June means just as much as having what you think will likely be a 2% better chance to win games in April.

Ouch. Please don't hypothesize these negative  injuries. I'm superstitious. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Other interesting stat,  was France going 1 for 2 with a double,  and I think another well hit ball down the line that was caught.  Everything I have heard is France is slow as molasses,  so the fact he got a hit and secondly got a double,  is something that I take as interesting.  If he can hit more of those doubles and make more contact,  it makes 2021 to 2022 stat lines more feasible.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Did Zebby Mathews give any reasons for his increased velocity in Spring Training? Changed grip? Additional leg strength? Gained muscle? Curious minds want to know. 

[DocBauer]

Thanks John!

Great news on Zebby! Personally, I think Festa will be better than SWR and Paddack, especially if he can harness the curveball hes working on. I hate the idea of him probably being in AAA to begin the year, but I hated seeing Ober go down in '23 and that worked out fine. But if Paddack is "back", the depth sure is nice to have waiting in the wings.

Have a lot of confidence in Matthews, especially with the added MPH. I think Morris gets pushed aside somewhat, but his 2024 was barely behind Zebby in impressive fashion. And I'm a big believer in Lewis, who lost time due to injury, and lost a little control and velocity. If he's back to his 2023 form, St Paul is LOADED with potential Twins rotation arms!

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Other interesting stat,  was France going 1 for 2 with a double,  and I think another well hit ball down the line that was caught.  Everything I have heard is France is slow as molasses,  so the fact he got a hit and secondly got a double,  is something that I take as interesting.  If he can hit more of those doubles and make more contact,  it makes 2021 to 2022 stat lines more feasible.  

Will we learn he legged out a triple to reach second base?  😀

[Fatbat]

@bean5302 I'm not sure how you came up with that grading system.  There is zero chance that Paddack will be dfa’d and how do you grade AAA guys so low when their potential ceiling is a probable mid rotation SP.  

I do agree that we are much better off with our top 3 shoving it every 5 days but ZM, SWR, Festa are not that far behind them and 6 more guys are a step or two behind those 3. 
 

and I haven’t even considered Castellanos because who knows where he fits in other than somewhere on the 26 man or back in the Philly org.  One thing I would expect, he is gonna be test driven before a decision is made and there might be some red headed stepchild type love. 

[h2oface]

I see the returning roster bats are already in end of the season form. 

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, h2oface said:

I see the returning roster bats are already in end of the season form. 

Oh, they're just working on their timing.

[Parfigliano]

Nice news on Zebby's velocity

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I firmly believe spring training matters. I also know that spring training stats are meaningless.

Ha! I totally agree. I don't think you can dismiss poor performances in spring training, or even get overly optimistic about a young player putting up eye-popping impressive numbers ... but at some point some of this stuff DOES matter. I'm a spring training junkie, so I love reading these reports. Thanks!

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Good luck with that argument. Maybe you will have better luck, but I have tried that several times and been clobbered. Most recently, the consensus was for Paddack in an article and in another article related to whether Simeon Woods Richardson deserved a starting slot. To sum up the argument opposed to putting together the best team, Spring Training isn't important and options mean that veterans earn first shot. Of course, all ideas need to be considered.

I have been quite high on Matthews and Festa and hope they stay healthy and make their next opportunity to pitch in MLB something that solidifies their positions. I'm a fan of talent first team building.

I am with you and Bean in terms of retaining depth even if it means someone like Ober starts in AAA like last year.  We know it takes a lot more than 5 SPS to get through a season.  IDK about you but I am happy to be debating how to roster and retain several good SPS instead of discussing the signing of retreads to fill out the rotation.  

[Blyleven2011]

Thanks for the article on the games in spring training  ...

Very encouraged when keaschall finally gets to the show he will be a consistent hitter and produce in clutch situations ...

Yes , he's probably a hit first , defense second kind of player right now  , but if they just find one position and have him play it consistently  , he just might be able to better himself  with defense  ...

[LambchoP]

Nice to see Zebby hitting 97 MPH. With his great control, a few mph added to his stuff could really up his game. I'm excited to watch the game today and see how Festa looks. I'm sure we'll see both these guys in the majors again this year. Also cool to see Keaschal get a hit. A lot of people want to see him conquer AAA before getting called up, but I think if he's our best option to man 2nd base then why wait. Our pitching should be solid but we'll need all the offensive help we can get.

[jmlease1]

Going to be interesting to se if Topa can get through Spring Training healthy. If he and Brock are both healthy and going at full speed it creates a bit of a logjam in the bullpen, which is a problem I want to have

[madtowntwin]

I've never seen Zebby pitch in person, but have followed his progress and rise since being drafted out of Western Carolina...He already possessed a good deal of physicality at 6'5"(+) 200pounds and decent arsenal of pitches. Readers probably roll their eyes at my optimistic comparisons, but this one was a bit more "Down to Earth" - Bailey Ober. So much optimism in terms of that wingspan putting hitters off balance as that long limbed pitching motion uncurls toward home plate. It's been absolutely wonderful watching Mr. Ober progress through the system to the major leaguer we now enjoy. I've soaked up observations and reports of those fortunate enough to see Matthew's throw in person and taken heart in his potential. But 97 mph??!!! Wow - That's a whole new ball game....What have we here??!! Win Twins. 

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You forgot a player you don't like too much, Andrew Morris. Morris slots above Castellano. If Castellano looks that good, the Twins will keep him, either in the bullpen or in AA via a trade. You also forgot Cory Lewis and C. J. Culpepper.

However, I get your point that if Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and a couple of others are injured and miss significant time, the Twins are in trouble.

Morris is not on the 40 man, and if he were added to the 40 man, he could be optioned. Aside from that, he wasn't necessary to the point.

Castellano is on the 40 man and cannot be optioned so by default he's ahead of Morris in a technical way.

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, Fatbat said:

@bean5302 I'm not sure how you came up with that grading system.  There is zero chance that Paddack will be dfa’d and how do you grade AAA guys so low when their potential ceiling is a probable mid rotation SP.  

I do agree that we are much better off with our top 3 shoving it every 5 days but ZM, SWR, Festa are not that far behind them and 6 more guys are a step or two behind those 3. 
 

and I haven’t even considered Castellanos because who knows where he fits in other than somewhere on the 26 man or back in the Philly org.  One thing I would expect, he is gonna be test driven before a decision is made and there might be some red headed stepchild type love. 

I was just responding to the comments about how the Twins better be using their best guys and not stashing SWR or Zebby or whomever in AAA. The grading system is totally made up and almost completely arbitrary. Depth is a concern and I was just illustrating how.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Morris is not on the 40 man, and if he were added to the 40 man, he could be optioned. Aside from that, he wasn't necessary to the point.

Castellano is on the 40 man and cannot be optioned so by default he's ahead of Morris in a technical way.

My mistake. I didn't realize that an organization's depth was restricted to the 40 person roster. The 40 person list could easily have 3-5 changes by the end of March as well. No reason to put Morris or others on the 40 until necessary. Thinking too positively, the Twins may only need 7-8 starters this season (alas, I have Paddack as #8 on my list of SP). Rationally, that number is 7-11 SP.

If the Twins make a suitable offer to Philadelphia (essentially a trade) and Castellano is no longer a Rule 5 guy it is my understanding that he can then be optioned. There is also a long, long history of Rule 5 players finding themselves on the IL lists. MLB consistently makes threats about closing this loophole and warns against abuse of it but nothing is ever done. The abuse is widespread. (FWIW, I think the Twins should complete a transaction with Philadelphia if they believe strongly in Eiberson.)

[Fatbat]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I was just responding to the comments about how the Twins better be using their best guys and not stashing SWR or Zebby or whomever in AAA. The grading system is totally made up and almost completely arbitrary. Depth is a concern and I was just illustrating how.

I understand that and would lump the top three in the same bucket. I would then put Paddack and Castellano in a bucket that says on the 26 man but possibly both in the bullpen. Keep them stretched out and starting in April.  Depending on early results and how the next group is doing in AAA, early call ups and role changes would happen. 

Next up would be a group of SWR, Festa, ZM. they have limited MLB experience but will be huge parts of the rotation n ‘25 and beyond. 
 

The next group would be Raya, Morris, Lewis, Preillip, Culpepper, Adams and a few more that will be pushing the door down this year and next. I am assuming Varland is in a RP role. 
 

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I understand that and would lump the top three in the same bucket. I would then put Paddack and Castellano in a bucket that says on the 26 man but possibly both in the bullpen. Keep them stretched out and starting in April.  Depending on early results and how the next group is doing in AAA, early call ups and role changes would happen. 

Next up would be a group of SWR, Festa, ZM. they have limited MLB experience but will be huge parts of the rotation n ‘25 and beyond. 
 

The next group would be Raya, Morris, Lewis, Preillip, Culpepper, Adams and a few more that will be pushing door down this year and next. I am assuming Varland is in a RP role. 
 

Any exercise that shows Paddack being DFA'd and released isn't to be taken so literally :)