Zebby’s Velocity and Three Other Things That Might Matter from the Twins' First Spring Training Game

[Jkeady12]

Absolutely LOVE ABS challenge system.

[South Dakota Tom]

I paid attention throughout to see how the relievers were doing.  Cody Lawyerson was about an inch from an immaculate inning. 

[gil4]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 There is also a long, long history of Rule 5 players finding themselves on the IL lists. MLB consistently makes threats about closing this loophole and warns against abuse of it but nothing is ever done. The abuse is widespread. (FWIW, I think the Twins should complete a transaction with Philadelphia if they believe strongly in Eiberson.)

From the MLB site: A Rule 5 Draft pick can be placed on the Major League injured list, but he must be active for a minimum of 90 days to avoid being subject to the aforementioned roster restrictions in the next campaign.

There's a bit of a loophole, but it isn't that big.  I can't think of any blatant abuses that I have heard about.

[arby58]

On 2/22/2025 at 5:45 PM, nicksaviking said:

I don't want Matthews stashed just because he can be stashed. The games in April matter; if he's one of the five best, break camp with the big league team. And not only for the final record, this club has regularly started off slow and the fan disinterest through the summer has to be a correlation in those seasons.

Put together the best team from Day 1, not the best team we might have in August assuming injuries and not assuming poor performance from the guys first in the hierarchy. Stop basing the roster off of hypotheticals.

He's started a grand total of 36 games between the minors and the 9 he started for the Twins last year. Last year, he was clearly overmatched at the MLB level. 

It's hard to judge expected MLB performance by games in the Grapefruit league - you don't consistently see major league hitters, and you're rarely going to go through the lineup more than once. So I don't have a problem with the Twins 'stashing' him at St. Paul even if he has a great spring training. The Twins have at least six starting pitchers with more experience, and sometimes pitchers do need more of it to perform well at the MLB level.

[arby58]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I was just responding to the comments about how the Twins better be using their best guys and not stashing SWR or Zebby or whomever in AAA. The grading system is totally made up and almost completely arbitrary. Depth is a concern and I was just illustrating how.

I've never before read a post that admitted their grading system was 'totally made up and almost completely arbitrary.' 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

He's started a grand total of 36 games between the minors and the 9 he started for the Twins last year. Last year, he was clearly overmatched at the MLB level. 

It's hard to judge expected MLB performance by games in the Grapefruit league - you don't consistently see major league hitters, and you're rarely going to go through the lineup more than once. So I don't have a problem with the Twins 'stashing' him at St. Paul even if he has a great spring training. The Twins have at least six starting pitchers with more experience, and sometimes pitchers do need more of it to perform well at the MLB level.

If he's throwing 97 MPH, missing bats and hitting the strike zone at an ungodly rate, you put him in the rotation for his stuff alone. More experience means more mileage on the arms. Don't waste it in AAA just because of a seniority angle.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

I've never before read a post that admitted their grading system was 'totally made up and almost completely arbitrary.' 

It's not "my" grading system. I just threw some numbers out there that I don't even agree with to illustrate a point.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's not "my" grading system. I just threw some numbers out there that I don't even agree with to illustrate a point.

This just keeps getting better and better - or is it the other way around? Reminds me of Yogi's quip that nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded.

[arby58]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If he's throwing 97 MPH, missing bats and hitting the strike zone at an ungodly rate, you put him in the rotation for his stuff alone. More experience means more mileage on the arms. Don't waste it in AAA just because of a seniority angle.

He'll still be doing it in spring training, not the real thing - maybe see it a bit longer than 36 games that count. Reminds me of Allen Iverson's 'we're talkin' about practice, not the game.'

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, arby58 said:

This just keeps getting better and better - or is it the other way around? Reminds me of Yogi's quip that nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded.

The grading system used was the 20-80 scouting scale. It's THE way people grade baseball players. From there it's a matter of opinion what each player's grade is. The list provided wasn't about making an exact point about each of their grades but just showing that 40-man roster spots, options, and Rule 5 status matters when it comes to 26-man roster decisions. 

I don't agree with bean's grades (and based on previous posts from that particular poster I'm quite positive they don't agree either as they are nowhere near that high on Pablo), but that isn't the point. The point is that simply placing the 5 starters you feel are likely best in the major league rotation on opening day with no care for the consequences of what that does to guys like Paddack and Castellano who can't just be optioned has real impact on the roster over the course of 162 games (and hopefully some playoff games tacked on). 

Every major league team needs to take these things into consideration. I think the Twins get crazy with it, but going crazy the other way with it isn't the answer either. There's a balance and sometimes guys make the roster when they shouldn't early on because that's just how the system is set up. 

[arby58]

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I was just responding to the comments about how the Twins better be using their best guys and not stashing SWR or Zebby or whomever in AAA. The grading system is totally made up and almost completely arbitrary. Depth is a concern and I was just illustrating how.

Now understanding this is all hypothetical, I don't understand any decision making process - at least based on MLB performance - where SWR ends up back in AAA in 2025. He started 28 games for the Twins last year and threw 133.2 innings, so he's not a flash in the pan. Further, it's clear he wore down at the end of 2024, which inflated his season ERA. After beating the Padres on August 21, where he went 5 innings, he did not go 5 innings in his last 6 starts (and less than 4 in 3 of them), he had 2 losses and his ERA went up to 4.17.  Further, in those starts he threw no more than 72 pitches. I view him sort of like Ober, where the Twins built him up to 178.2 innings pitched in MLB last year - my guess is they do the same with SWR this year.

[Fatbat]

@arby58 What do you think of the possibility that Castellano gets  the 5 spot and a few starts to start the season, then depending on how he does along with any other circumstances, send him to the bullpen and stash him there? Same thing could happen with Paddack…

[gman]

31 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@arby58 What do you think of the possibility that Castellano gets  the 5 spot and a few starts to start the season, then depending on how he does along with any other circumstances, send him to the bullpen and stash him there? Same thing could happen with Paddack…

After 1 inning of spring work I can't see a reason to plan on him starting in the rotation. So far I agree with most that there being a trade for him is the only way he should still be with the Twins at the end of spring. Then send him to the minors. Maybe we would see him next year.

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@arby58 What do you think of the possibility that Castellano gets  the 5 spot and a few starts to start the season, then depending on how he does along with any other circumstances, send him to the bullpen and stash him there? Same thing could happen with Paddack…

I suppose it's possible, although my guess would be if they keep him with the major league team, they park him in the bullpen while Stewart gets back into pitching shape. He's intriguing, but his minor league stats include exactly the same number of starts (36) as Matthews, and Mathews' minor league stats were better.  Maybe they work out a trade with the Phillies? I think Paddock is a completely different set of circumstances.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

Now understanding this is all hypothetical, I don't understand any decision making process - at least based on MLB performance - where SWR ends up back in AAA in 2025. He started 28 games for the Twins last year and threw 133.2 innings, so he's not a flash in the pan. Further, it's clear he wore down at the end of 2024, which inflated his season ERA. After beating the Padres on August 21, where he went 5 innings, he did not go 5 innings in his last 6 starts (and less than 4 in 3 of them), he had 2 losses and his ERA went up to 4.17.  Further, in those starts he threw no more than 72 pitches. I view him sort of like Ober, where the Twins built him up to 178.2 innings pitched in MLB last year - my guess is they do the same with SWR this year.

Bailey Ober started 2023 in AAA after a far more impressive 2022 than SWR had in 2024.

[arby58]

43 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Bailey Ober started 2023 in AAA after a far more impressive 2022 than SWR had in 2024.

Ober pitched 56 innings over 11 starts in 2022 - that hardly compares to SWR's 28 starts and 134 innings. If you found that 'far more impressive' my response would be 'small sample size.'

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, gman said:

After 1 inning of spring work I can't see a reason to plan on him starting in the rotation. So far I agree with most that there being a trade for him is the only way he should still be with the Twins at the end of spring. Then send him to the minors. Maybe we would see him next year.

Why? and that 1 inning has nothing to do with his ability to be on the 26man