To Tender or Non-Tender... That is the Question! (Update: We now have Answers)

[Seth Stohs]

Friday is another one of those important dates in an offseason baseball calendar. It is the date that teams need to determine if they are going to offer their arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2025. (Article will be updated if and when any news breaks throughout the day. If you see reports of agreements, leave a comment.)

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Friday night is the deadline for offering a 2025 contract to players eligible for arbitration. The Minnesota Twins currently have 11 players who are arbitration-eligible. This article will be a quick summary of the 11 players, and ultimately the questions for each player will be: 

1. Tender (a contract) - Means that the two sides (player and team) will present each other with numbers, and if they can’t come to terms by sometime in January or February, they will make their cases in front of a group of three arbiters. What that person decides is what that player will make. In between, the two sides can continue to negotiate. Often that means an agreement around the midpoint. Sometimes they work out long-term deals. 
2. Non-Tender - Means that the Twins are not offering the player a major-league contract for 2025 and he becomes a free agent. The Twins have one less player on their 40-man roster. 
3. Reach an Agreement - Often, the teams are close enough to agree on a 2025 contract before needing to exchange numbers. We have already seen a couple of players from other organizations avoid arbitration by reaching an agreement. 

Throughout the day, there will be reports of players and teams that have agreed to terms. After the deadline, teams will send out a press release summarizing their day. These players were tendered a contract. These players were not tendered 2025 contracts, etc. 

Players without enough service time to be arbitration-eligible are either offered a contract or not. If you look at yesterday’s article by Cody Christie in which he mentioned four players who could be non-tendered, two of them are not eligible for arbitration yet. (Side Note: I will be surprised, and potentially a little annoyed if either of those two players are non-tendered!) 

A quick note: Initially, the Twins could have had 13 arbitration-eligible players. Alex Kirilloff would have been arbitration eligible with just shy of four years of service time. Instead, he abruptly retired last month. Also, the Twins picked up the $1.5 million club option that they had on him. Had they declined it, he would have been arbitration eligible. 

UPDATE (5:21 pm): To see the Twins decisions, scroll to the bottom. 

Willi Castro
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $6.2 million. 
bWAR: 1.6, fWAR: 3.1. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Castro was an All-Star in 2024, a replacement added when Jose Altuve opted out of the game. In 96 games before the All Star break, he hit .266/.352/.422 (.774) with 22 doubles, five triples, and seven homers. After the All Star break, he hit like Willi Castro, .219/.298/.329 (.627) with nine doubles and five homers.  That said, Castro’s ability to play solid defense at two outfield positions and three infield positions is valuable to an MLB roster. He played in 158 of 162 Twins games.

Is the money right? If you look at his overall numbers (.247 with a .717 OPS), you would be happy with your utility infielder hitting like that. But you would pay that guy about $2-3 million, not $6.2 million.

What would Seth do? With an infield that potentially includes Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Correa, Lee, and an outfield that has Wallner and Larnach on either side of Buxton, with Martin, Keirsey, and Emmanuel Rodriguez getting closer, I would non-tender, unless they think they can get anything in trade for him at that cost.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? They’ll tender him a contract.

What actually happens: Tendered

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Ryan Jeffers
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $4.7 million 
bWAR: 2.1, fWAR: 1.7. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting Catcher. If Christian Vazquez is still around, it can continue to be a 50-50 split. When he is hitting well, he can be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, and if he’s going through a slump, he’s just find at the back of the lineup.
Is the money right? For a guy who catches half of the time (or a little more) and can also DH at times throughout the season, the money is just fine. 

What would Seth do? I would call up Scott Boras and ask how possible a four-year deal is and try to make that happen. If it could be somewhere in the neighborhood of four years and $32 million with a $12 million option for year five, I’d jump all over it. If not, going year to year is safer from the Twins side.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? He’ll be tendered. No question.

What actually happens: Tendered 

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Michael Tonkin
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $1.5 million 
bWAR: -0.1, fWAR: 0.6. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? As we have seen, bullpen quality and bullpen depth is very important in a long season. The last few years, the Twins have had a reliever who is out of options that they can have in the big leagues, then DFA, knowing he would clear waivers, and they could call him up and down as needed. Tonkin doesn’t fit that. Look at his 2024. He pitched for Mets, then the Twins, then the Mets again, then the Yankees, and then the Twins for the final month of the season. So, can his value as a back-of-the-bullpen depth option who can eat innings in a veteran, professional manner worth the 40-man roster spot?

Is the money right? The money is fine. $1.5 million for what he’s done in the big leagues the last two years isn’t excessive by any means. I mean, it’s not even double the new MLB minimum salary.

What would Seth do? I’d non-tender him and try to sign him on a minor-league deal so that he can compete with the likes of Scott Blewett, Jovani Moran, and others for spot stretches in the big leagues.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Non-Tender.

What actually happens: Reached an agreement, $1 million. 

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Justin Topa
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $1.3 million 
bWAR: 0.2, fWAR: 0.1. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Came to the Twins as part of the return for Jorge Polanco last offseason. Then he missed all but the final week of the season with knee injuries and setbacks. He ended the year in the Twins bullpen and worked 2 1/3 innings over three games. The Twins were excited about him when they acquired him a year ago after a strong, 75-game season with the Mariners in 2023. A lost season due to a knee issue shouldn’t alter that at all.

Is the money right? $1.3 million is just fine. In addition, if things go well, he would have two more seasons of arbitration-eligibility before becoming a free agent. 

What would Seth do? Easy choice. Tender him and go into the season with him as a 7th and 8th inning option.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Reached an agreement, terms not known yet. 

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Bailey Ober
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $4.3 million 
bWAR: 2.9, fWAR: 2.9.  
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? #2 starting pitcher behind Pablo Lopez. Potential All-Star. After three big-league seasons in which they limited his innings and pitch counts, he hit 178 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year.
Is the money right? Absolutely.

What would Seth do? I have read a few times this offseason that Ober could be a trade candidate. That would really, really bother me, even understanding that he could bring back a huge haul of talent. Again, instead, I would reach out to Ballangee and see if they would be interested in a four or five year deal with some option years. I’m thinking something in the neighborhood of four years and $40 million with another option year at like $20 million in 2029. 

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Easy choice. Tendered. 

What actually happens: Tendered. 

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Brock Stewart
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $800,000 
bWAR: -0.1, fWAR: 0.1.  
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Stewart has fought arm injuries throughout his entire career, but in 2023, we got to see him as one of the most dominant relievers that we have seen over a short period of time. Coupled with Duran and Jax, they can be locked down given a late lead. Unfortunately, in 2024, he was limited to just 16 games before the injury bug caught up to him again. So it’s impossible to know what Stewart will be able to provide, but simply for the price, keep him around!

Is the money right? For $40,000 over the league minimum, it’s very fair.   

What would Seth do? Easily tender. But, as a fan of long-term deals, I’d throw out an offer of four years and $3.8 million to him. If they have any confidence in his health coming into the 2025 season and don’t think his arm will fall off for at least three years, there’s little risk. Can be DFAd and you’re only out a million per year. For the upside here, I’m willing to take that risk. What would Stewart and Sterling Sports Management think? 

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. And, they’re smarter than me, so they will just go year to year.

What actually happens: Reached an Agreement at $870K. 

 

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Griffin Jax
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.6 million 
bWAR: 2.8, fWAR: 2.6. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? In my mind, he would continue being one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, working the key parts of games anytime after the sixth inning. In his mind, and maybe in the mind of some with the Twins, he could be moved back to the starting rotation. It’s certainly intriguing because he is a completely different pitcher than when he posted a 6.37 ERA over 82 games in 2021. But he can’t air it out as a starter like he does as a reliever, so what does that starter look like? That said, I get it. There is a lot more money in starting pitching.

Is the money right? Absolutely deserved.

What would Seth do? Tender. Today is his 30th birthday which means that he won’t be a free agent until before his age-33 season, so it makes sense to go year-to-year with him. That said, because I love long-term deals and cost-certainty, I’d throw a four-year, $20 million offer to Ballangee and Jax and see if it leads to something. 

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. 

What actually happens:  Tendered

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Joe Ryan
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $3.8 million 
bWAR: 2.3, fWAR: 3.1.  
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Co-#2 starters in the Twins rotation with Ober, behind Lopez. Ryan was on his way to his best season in 2024 when he was hurt in mid-August. Not to overplay it, but in my opinion, that was the biggest loss of the Twins season. Over his three years in the rotation, he’s had 10 K/9 with just 2.1 BB/9. His WHIP over 135 innings in 2024 was 0.99 which is rare for a starting pitcher. His injury wasn’t elbow related, and it really wasn’t the concerning areas of the shoulder, so hopefully an offseason will bring him rest to have him a full-go by spring training.

Is the money right? Absolutely.

What would Seth do? I have read a few times this offseason that Ryan could be a trade candidate. That would really, really bother me, even understanding that he could bring back a huge haul of talent. Again, instead, I would reach out to CAA Spots and see if they would be interested in a four or five year deal with some option years. I’m thinking something in the neighborhood of five years and $55 million with another option year at like $20 million in 2030.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Tendered  

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Trevor Larnach
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.1 million 
bWAR: 1.3, fWAR: 1.5. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting left fielder most games, or left field in a platoon situation.

Is the money right? Certainly. Expectations were probably a little low for Larnach when the season started, and he was on the Injured List. However, when he was deemed ready, he was brought right to the Twins and placed in the middle of the lineup, and he came through. He hit .259/.338/.434 (.771) with 17 doubles and 15 home runs in 112 games. He returned to his old self at the plate. After striking out over 31% in his three previous, partial seasons, he reduced his K% to 22.3% while maintaining a 10% BB%. Definitely something to build upon.   

What would Seth do? Tender. I’d probably wait a year to reach out to The Bledsoe Agency about a long-term deal, but I also feel that if he has the breakout season that I think he is capable of, that long-term deal will be much, much more expensive.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Tendered. 

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Jhoan Duran
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $3.7 million
bWAR: 0.2, fWAR: 1.2.   
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Closer. While 2024 was a somewhat disappointing season for Duran, his size and strength are still there. He still struck out 10.9 per nine innings. He dropped his walk rate and his home run rate. His hard hit % and exit velocity again were down too. His BABIP was .321, so there's certainly some bad luck involved. My bigger concern has to do with his velocity. That’s a weird thing to say when his average fastball was 100.5 mph and his sprinkler was 97.0 mph. Both of those numbers were over 1.3 mph slower than the previous year. His curveball was down 1.6 mph, though that doesn’t concern me.

Is the money right? Yes. he’s been one of the more dominant relievers in baseball over the past three seasons.

What would Seth do? Easy tender. I wouldn’t hang up the phone if some team called asking about his availability. But like others, I would only deal Duran if completely overwhelmed.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Tendered. 

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Royce Lewis
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.3 million
bWAR: 0.7, fWAR: 1.2.  
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting third baseman (or second base, just decide now and let him get ready either way) and middle-of-the-order hitter. While he struggled down the stretch, we have seen plenty of moments and extended stretches of his potential and game-changing abilities. The power is legit. He has come up in some big moments and come through with big hits, including in the 2023 playoffs.

Is the money right? Lewis has 2.142 service years which makes him a Super 2. In other words, assuming he remains on the roster, he will have four years of arbitration.

What would Seth do? Tender, and try to get Mr. Boras to consider a long-term deal.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Tendered. 

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So, what do you think? If you were to Replace “Seth” with “Your Name” in this document, how might the article look different? If I was making the decisions (for the record, I am not), I would non-tender Willi Castro and Michael Tonkin. I’d prefer to trade Castro, but $6.2 million is just too much.  I think that Tonkin is the only one that the Twins actually will non-tender. Being a fan of long-term deals, I would reach out to at least half of these players in an attempt to sign them long term. Now, that doesn’t have to happen by Friday’s deadline, but since each would be tendered, they would have months to work on that.

UPDATE (5:21 pm): 

 

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[Jeff K]

The Twins should tender Castro.  He has value in the marketplace and I would trade him.

[JD-TWINS]

You tender everyone except Tonkin - no big surprise.

Never, ever thought I would consider trading Lewis or Duran. Lewis, in ‘25, is too high of a ceiling guy and still very inexpensive. Duran though, I think, if moved with one of the current catchers, might help get back a real Catcher with youth and either defensive or offensive upgrades over whichever guy goes in trade.

I push for an infield of Lee - CC - Keaschall - Lewis………between Kesschall and Lewis, I don’t care who plays 1B or 2B. Seems to me Keaschall has arm problems so it may fit him? Lewis has the size & offensive profile at 1B with leg issues - so maybe him?

This infield may not come together until June. Lee is the best defensive fit at 3B…..maybe needs to square up offense in St. Paul?! In the meantime, Miranda and Julien can play 3B - 2B as needed.

These moves reduce the need to sign an expensive guy at 1B…….. focus on Catcher upgrade and ride with current Staff.

Duran - Castro - Jeffers - Paddack - Matthews - Julien are the trade pieces in my mind. Catcher in trade and maybe a real BAT in the OF as a FA after shedding salary?

PEN: (assuming Duran traded) Headrick - Henriquez - Stewart - Topa - Paddack (if kept) - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Blewett - Moran - Funderburk - (maybe) Tonkin ……….Canterino - Prielipp - Raya all late summer adds potentially…….Paddack’s innings capabilities seem to fit the Bullpen……he could be a key bridge guy there over 45-50 appearances & 75 innings.

 

[LambchoP]

I'm guessing they tender everyone. These are cheap salaries and anyone we'd try to sign to replace these guys would be more expensive anyways. Maybe a Paddack and Castro or Vasquez and Castro would open up enough money to at least take care of one item on our to do list. We need a real everyday first baseman. A good RH fourth outfielder who can play a good center field, and a solid lefty reliever.

[DJL44]

Quote

Is the money right? If you look at his overall numbers (.247 with a .717 OPS), you would be happy with your utility infielder hitting like that. But you would pay that guy about $2-3 million, not $6.2 million.

717 OPS is good for a 102 OPS+. He had a 105 OPS+ the season before. He has an average bat and plays above average defense at 2B, 3B, LF. He gets labeled as a utility infielder but he's an everyday player for the Twins, clearly one of their best 9. He was named the team MVP for 2024 and made the All-Star team. If they can't afford that for $6M then they have completely mismanaged their budget.

He has more than $6M worth of value to 20 of the 30 teams in MLB. It is a no-brainer to tender Willi Castro.

[gman]

If the Twins non-tender Castro, how likely is someone to sign him at $6.2 mil? I might sign him for 2/6 or 3/10 and they look for trade possibilities. I'd go the non-tender route otherwise. They have plenty of utility players available.

Still another dozen teams are out hunting marketing money with TV cooling down. There will be players not getting what they want and agents too.

[Doctor Gast]

49 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

You tender everyone except Tonkin - no big surprise.

Never, ever thought I would consider trading Lewis or Duran. Lewis, in ‘25, is too high of a ceiling guy and still very inexpensive. Duran though, I think, if moved with one of the current catchers, might help get back a real Catcher with youth and either defensive or offensive upgrades over whichever guy goes in trade.

I push for an infield of Lee - CC - Keaschall - Lewis………between Kesschall and Lewis, I don’t care who plays 1B or 2B. Seems to me Keaschall has arm problems so it may fit him? Lewis has the size & offensive profile at 1B with leg issues - so maybe him?

This infield may not come together until June. Lee is the best defensive fit at 3B…..maybe needs to square up offense in St. Paul?! In the meantime, Miranda and Julien can play 3B - 2B as needed.

These moves reduce the need to sign an expensive guy at 1B…….. focus on Catcher upgrade and ride with current Staff.

Duran - Castro - Jeffers - Paddack - Matthews - Julien are the trade pieces in my mind. Catcher in trade and maybe a real BAT in the OF as a FA after shedding salary?

PEN: (assuming Duran traded) Headrick - Henriquez - Stewart - Topa - Paddack (if kept) - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Blewett - Moran - Funderburk - (maybe) Tonkin ……….Canterino - Prielipp - Raya all late summer adds potentially…….Paddack’s innings capabilities seem to fit the Bullpen……he could be a key bridge guy there over 45-50 appearances & 75 innings.

I agree with everything that you stated. Paddack, Julien & Jeffers are must trades. Because Castro wasn't extended last season he might be too expensive for us now (sorry to say because he's so valuable to us & not easy to replace). Duran, Matthews & others I'd being willing to move on with if the price is right. We should have acquired a real primary catcher a while ago for not only now but for the future. Paying top catcher price for a backup catcher through Boras is out of the question for a team that wants to compete while controlling a budget.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Is the money right? If you look at his overall numbers (.247 with a .717 OPS), you would be happy with your utility infielder hitting like that. But you would pay that guy about $2-3 million, not $6.2 million

635 Plate Appearances 

[saviking]

These are the guys that keep you under the salary ) self-imposed_ limit. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

717 OPS is good for a 102 OPS+. He had a 105 OPS+ the season before. He has an average bat and plays above average defense at 2B, 3B, LF. He gets labeled as a utility infielder but he's an everyday player for the Twins, clearly one of their best 9. He was named the team MVP for 2024 and made the All-Star team. If they can't afford that for $6M then they have completely mismanaged their budget.

He has more than $6M worth of value to 20 of the 30 teams in MLB. It is a no-brainer to tender Willi Castro.

Agreed.  I am not sure how you can put a $2m price tag on the value he brings.  If the Twins want to trade him while his value is high, fine.  But to non-tender him makes zero sense at that price point.

[chpettit19]

Tonkin, Topa, and Stewart are the only questions I see. If they're going to go out and sign more Staumonts and Jacksons then just tender these guys and roll with them. If they really need to save the couple million and are going to roll with league minimum guys then don't tender them. The rest are getting deals.

Castro may get traded, but he's worth 6ish mil to somebody so tendering him makes sense. Only way he isn't tendered is if they get scared off by their complete misjudgment of Farmer's worth last year and think they'd be doing the same thing with Castro. But that'd be a mistake. They wouldn't get anything massive for Castro, but they can get a flier for him and it's better to get a flier than to just non-tender.

[Trov]

I agree with just about all the tender non-tender things and how Twins will do it.  In terms of Stewart no reason to give him long term deal when he literally has had just 27 good innings, for us and has not been healthy or very effective outside of that. 

Castro, I get the price is high overall, but he helps make a team like Twins make the moves they want to.  Being he can play as least respectable defense at just about any position and has some value as a hitter, been a bit streaky, he is worth the money. When he is on the team they can pinch hit or run just about anyone knowing they can slide Castro over to that defense if the hitter or runner cannot. This became an issue when CC was out and Castro mainly played SS and he could not slid around. I would tender him and if you do not want to pay him the full amount shop him around, many teams would want to have someone like him around. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

717 OPS is good for a 102 OPS+. He had a 105 OPS+ the season before. He has an average bat and plays above average defense at 2B, 3B, LF. He gets labeled as a utility infielder but he's an everyday player for the Twins, clearly one of their best 9. He was named the team MVP for 2024 and made the All-Star team. If they can't afford that for $6M then they have completely mismanaged their budget.

He has more than $6M worth of value to 20 of the 30 teams in MLB. It is a no-brainer to tender Willi Castro.

Agreed... if we weren't talking about Falvey's trade skills. The Twins don't have the $6.2MM in the budget, and Falvey has proven he doesn't know how to trade players and move money off the books. (Farmer, Kepler x2, Polanco x2)

I see Willi Castro as quite similar to Marwin Gonzalez when he got 2yrs $21MM from the Twins in that crazy 2018-2019 offseason, when MLBTR predicted 4yrs $36MM.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Agreed.  I am not sure how you can put a $2m price tag on the value he brings.  If the Twins want to trade him while his value is high, fine.  But to non-tender him makes zero sense at that price point.

My thinking is that with their depth and youth around the field, I can't see him getting into 158 games and over 600 plate appearances again. In fact, I'd predict half that number of plate appearances in 2025. 

So yes, he earned the $6 million based on his playing time in 2024, but the front office has to be realistic about what his playing time would ideally be in 2025... in my opinion. 

[TopGunn#22]

While $6.2 million might seem high for the penurious Pohlad's, it would be quite reasonable for over half of the teams in MLB.  As I've said before, I would be reluctant to trade Willi, but if he's part of a deal that brings me back a "Catcher of the Future" like Teel or Rushing,  I make that trade and sign someone like Jose Iglesias for $1.5 million (Spotrac estimation) to be my backup at SS/2B/3B--great glove and a hitter that makes contact.  Keirsey becomes my 4th OF.  I improve the IF and OF defense with those two and with a Teel or Rushing on the major league roster out of spring training, I can make a trade involving either Jeffers or Vasquez.  

If I trade Jeffers, I get a pretty nice return, but I'm still stuck with Vasquez and his $10 million dollar salary for 2025, and that's a no-go for the rest of the roster construction.  I find a way to deal Vasquez, even if it's for virtually nothing just to move that $10 million and roll with Jeffers & Teel/Rushing.  And as bad as Miami's catching position is, I think Vasquez has value to them and if you included Julien and Marco Raya and took back Sandy Alcantara and his $17 million dollar 2025 contract, you'd have a deal and one heck of a starting rotation.   

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Agreed.  I am not sure how you can put a $2m price tag on the value he brings.  If the Twins want to trade him while his value is high, fine.  But to non-tender him makes zero sense at that price point.

Right his value is in taking ABs away from Manny Margot, Kyle Farmer and any other low end veteran they'd consider bringing in. And with this team being able to generate some exciting young players, who inexplicably fall off a cliff without warning, he'd help with that too.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

My thinking is that with their depth and youth around the field, I can't see him getting into 158 games and over 600 plate appearances again. In fact, I'd predict half that number of plate appearances in 2025. 

So yes, he earned the $6 million based on his playing time in 2024, but the front office has to be realistic about what his playing time would ideally be in 2025... in my opinion. 

The roster as-is doesn't have a starter at 2B/3B (depending on where they play Royce Lewis) or a 4th OF. They need Castro more in 2025 than they did in 2024.

[AKTwinsFan]

Tender all, and hopefully the turkey turns out the same! And later trade gifts like it's Christmas morning and we're getting some new gift-ed players.

[bean5302]

Castro should have substantial trade value. Falvey should have an understanding of other team interest in the Twins' favorite utility guy. Tender & Trade or commit to finding payroll space elsewhere so you can Tender & Keep him.

Topa will be 34 next year. He's been around forever, and he's had 1 healthy season since 2019. The Twins can't afford to fill up the roster with injury prone relievers. A 26 man spot with a guy who is probably nothing more than a medium value reliever if he's healthy doesn't seem like a great value to me. If the Twins can convince some other club 2023 wasn't a fluke, they should be able to move him, but the framework for that should have already been taken care of.  Tender & Trade or Non-tender.

I'd tender everybody else. When determining whether or not I'd pursue a long term contract with any player, I first ask if the player highly likely to remain a quality player in a major role? 
Larnach? No. Stewart? No.

Then it's a question of what would that player get in free agency, and how far away are they? For guys who are already arb eligible, huge discounts are likely off the table. They're already going to make some money, and they just need a couple years before the huge payday. Lopez was Arb2 when the Twins extended him to 4yrs and $73.5MM, buying out 2 years of free agency.

Joe Ryan - Spotrac's MV is 5yrs $91MM. 
Bailey Ober - Spotrac's MV is 4yrs $74MM
I'd be inclined to think 10MM AAV deals are a non-starter for them, especially if you're throwing team options at the end of them during their last potential 3+ year contract length ages.
Griffin Jax - First off, if I was Jax, I'd push the Twins all the way to arbitration before signing some $2.6MM deal. The MV in Spotrac is pretty nuts here because of the length, but I think the AAV is reasonable at $14MM/yr. I could see Jax getting a 3yr $42MM deal. A 4yr deal buying out some free agency at $5MM doesn't seem like it offers much value to Jax.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Topa will be 34 next year. He's been around forever, and he's had 1 healthy season since 2019. The Twins can't afford to fill up the roster with injury prone relievers. A 26 man spot with a guy who is probably nothing more than a medium value reliever if he's healthy doesn't seem like a great value to me. If the Twins can convince some other club 2023 wasn't a fluke, they should be able to move him, but the framework for that should have already been taken care of.  Tender & Trade or Non-tender.

Topa has options. He doesn't have to take up any room on the 26-man roster. The bullpen will have Henriquez, Stewart and Tonkin as pitchers without options. They can stash Topa in AAA until the first injury.

[jjswol]

Over the years I have changed my opinion on putting certain players off-limits in trade talk. I am now of the opinion that no player should ever be off-limits in trade proposals. Baseball like in life should be that everything and everyone is available, it is just a matter of how much it will take to get the item or player you covet. No risk, no reward.

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Topa has options. He doesn't have to take up any room on the 26-man roster. The bullpen will have Henriquez, Stewart and Tonkin as pitchers without options. They can stash Topa in AAA until the first injury.

If he's not good enough to be on the 26 man roster, why would they want to pay him a guaranteed $1.3MM? My point was really about the Twins banking on Topa to earn and maintain a 26 man roster spot, and constructing their roster around that premise. On his own, it's no big deal. Add in Stewart, Alcala, Moran, and Duarte, and stability becomes ever more concerning. The upside with Topa, in my opinion, is going to be a 3.50 ERA type of year. The risk/reward balance doesn't seem to match up well. Probably a little better than Tonkin, but with no durability. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

My thinking is that with their depth and youth around the field, I can't see him getting into 158 games and over 600 plate appearances again. In fact, I'd predict half that number of plate appearances in 2025. 

So yes, he earned the $6 million based on his playing time in 2024, but the front office has to be realistic about what his playing time would ideally be in 2025... in my opinion. 

Fair enough.  I have lesser faith in the younger guys than most.

IMO I think there is so much instability from the younger guys (Lee, Martin), to the next levels (Wallner, MIranda, Larnach) to the health (Lewis, Buxton, Correa) that Castro provide insurance across the board.  If he is with the Twins and getting 600 AB again, it means the team is melting down.  Again.  Even at 450 AB he has that value to the team.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If he's not good enough to be on the 26 man roster, why would they want to pay him a guaranteed $1.3MM?

Because $1.3MM is chicken feed when the minimum is $760k. I like Topa as a reclamation project better than Josh Staumont or Jay Jackson. It's a low risk bet with a medium reward payout.

[Riverbrian]

It's a question of the price point.

Castro has undeniable value to the roster or any roster. Does he have 6 million worth of value is the question. 

He doesn't if his performance can be replicated for less. 

 

 

[Brandon]

Tonkin is the only question mark.  I can see the non tender as a means to lower the salary.  Getting a guarantee is better than being non tendered so If Tonkin resigns it will be in the 1.2-1.3 million range.  Every dollar counts.  
 

fir a team that paid Marwin González 9 million a year to be a super sub 10th position player 10 million.  6.2 million is not too much and Castro is better than Marwin.  I totally expect him to be offered a contract and wouldn’t be surprised if he got a 3 year 24-27 million deal 

Everyone else is tendered.  Killeroff was my only other question mark and he took care of that himself already.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because $1.3MM is chicken feed when the minimum is $760k. I like Topa as a reclamation project better than Josh Staumont or Jay Jackson. It's a low risk bet with a medium reward payout.

Your opinion of his ceiling is just a lot higher than mine I expect. 

[PatPfund]

For a while I was in the "tender, then trade Castro" group. (Love what he brings, though Rocco seriously overuses him and others in a position shuffle that hurts our defense.) But unless they feel they can dump Vasquez's contract, non-tendering Willi seems one of the easiest ways to save money. I also think the post-Diamond Sports fallout is still going to have several teams in a tight budget situation, and like last year, several good players are not going to find the free agent market they expected. If that happens, any off-season trade market for Castro at $6 million is likely to collapse.

So now I'd non-tender Willi, keep open lines, and look to bring him back at a much lower number (or wish him well). I'd take the same approach with Tonkin, and tender the rest.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

They're already going to make some money, and they just need a couple years before the huge payday. Lopez was Arb2 when the Twins extended him to 4yrs and $73.5MM, buying out 2 years of free agency.

Joe Ryan - Spotrac's MV is 5yrs $91MM. 
Bailey Ober - Spotrac's MV is 4yrs $74MM

The Twins bought out Lopez until age 31, they already have Ryan and Lopez locked up until that age, Can't seem them extending either of those two, and IMO they shouldn't. If you don't bring up a starting pitcher until age 25 you ride them until free agency or trade them, you don't extend them, contracts like that are for guys that came up younger.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

717 OPS is good for a 102 OPS+. He had a 105 OPS+ the season before. He has an average bat and plays above average defense at 2B, 3B, LF. He gets labeled as a utility infielder but he's an everyday player for the Twins, clearly one of their best 9. He was named the team MVP for 2024 and made the All-Star team. If they can't afford that for $6M then they have completely mismanaged their budget.

He has more than $6M worth of value to 20 of the 30 teams in MLB. It is a no-brainer to tender Willi Castro.

Castro's defense is overrated on this site. I think because he moves all over people assume he plays those positions well. He's best suited for 3B (where he's average or maybe a small tick above) and that unfortunately is where he'll likely see the least amount of time. To me, Castro is definitely a utility IF, and that isn't a pejorative term. This club has question marks all over the place; I agree that tendering him is an easy yes.