To Tender or Non-Tender... That is the Question! (Update: We now have Answers)

Friday night is the deadline for offering a 2025 contract to players eligible for arbitration. The Minnesota Twins currently have 11 players who are arbitration-eligible. This article will be a quick summary of the 11 players, and ultimately the questions for each player will be: 

1. Tender (a contract) - Means that the two sides (player and team) will present each other with numbers, and if they can’t come to terms by sometime in January or February, they will make their cases in front of a group of three arbiters. What that person decides is what that player will make. In between, the two sides can continue to negotiate. Often that means an agreement around the midpoint. Sometimes they work out long-term deals. 
2. Non-Tender - Means that the Twins are not offering the player a major-league contract for 2025 and he becomes a free agent. The Twins have one less player on their 40-man roster. 
3. Reach an Agreement - Often, the teams are close enough to agree on a 2025 contract before needing to exchange numbers. We have already seen a couple of players from other organizations avoid arbitration by reaching an agreement. 

Throughout the day, there will be reports of players and teams that have agreed to terms. After the deadline, teams will send out a press release summarizing their day. These players were tendered a contract. These players were not tendered 2025 contracts, etc. 

Players without enough service time to be arbitration-eligible are either offered a contract or not. If you look at yesterday’s article by Cody Christie in which he mentioned four players who could be non-tendered, two of them are not eligible for arbitration yet. (Side Note: I will be surprised, and potentially a little annoyed if either of those two players are non-tendered!) 

A quick note: Initially, the Twins could have had 13 arbitration-eligible players. Alex Kirilloff would have been arbitration eligible with just shy of four years of service time. Instead, he abruptly retired last month. Also, the Twins picked up the $1.5 million club option that they had on him. Had they declined it, he would have been arbitration eligible. 

UPDATE (5:21 pm): To see the Twins decisions, scroll to the bottom. 

Willi Castro
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $6.2 million. 
bWAR: 1.6, fWAR: 3.1. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Castro was an All-Star in 2024, a replacement added when Jose Altuve opted out of the game. In 96 games before the All Star break, he hit .266/.352/.422 (.774) with 22 doubles, five triples, and seven homers. After the All Star break, he hit like Willi Castro, .219/.298/.329 (.627) with nine doubles and five homers.  That said, Castro’s ability to play solid defense at two outfield positions and three infield positions is valuable to an MLB roster. He played in 158 of 162 Twins games.

Is the money right? If you look at his overall numbers (.247 with a .717 OPS), you would be happy with your utility infielder hitting like that. But you would pay that guy about $2-3 million, not $6.2 million.

What would Seth do? With an infield that potentially includes Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Correa, Lee, and an outfield that has Wallner and Larnach on either side of Buxton, with Martin, Keirsey, and Emmanuel Rodriguez getting closer, I would non-tender, unless they think they can get anything in trade for him at that cost.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? They’ll tender him a contract.

What actually happens: Tendered

Ryan Jeffers
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $4.7 million 
bWAR: 2.1, fWAR: 1.7. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting Catcher. If Christian Vazquez is still around, it can continue to be a 50-50 split. When he is hitting well, he can be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, and if he’s going through a slump, he’s just find at the back of the lineup.
Is the money right? For a guy who catches half of the time (or a little more) and can also DH at times throughout the season, the money is just fine. 

What would Seth do? I would call up Scott Boras and ask how possible a four-year deal is and try to make that happen. If it could be somewhere in the neighborhood of four years and $32 million with a $12 million option for year five, I’d jump all over it. If not, going year to year is safer from the Twins side.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? He’ll be tendered. No question.

What actually happens: Tendered 

Michael Tonkin
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $1.5 million 
bWAR: -0.1, fWAR: 0.6. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? As we have seen, bullpen quality and bullpen depth is very important in a long season. The last few years, the Twins have had a reliever who is out of options that they can have in the big leagues, then DFA, knowing he would clear waivers, and they could call him up and down as needed. Tonkin doesn’t fit that. Look at his 2024. He pitched for Mets, then the Twins, then the Mets again, then the Yankees, and then the Twins for the final month of the season. So, can his value as a back-of-the-bullpen depth option who can eat innings in a veteran, professional manner worth the 40-man roster spot?

Is the money right? The money is fine. $1.5 million for what he’s done in the big leagues the last two years isn’t excessive by any means. I mean, it’s not even double the new MLB minimum salary.

What would Seth do? I’d non-tender him and try to sign him on a minor-league deal so that he can compete with the likes of Scott Blewett, Jovani Moran, and others for spot stretches in the big leagues.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Non-Tender.

What actually happens: Reached an agreement, $1 million. 

Is the money right? $1.3 million is just fine. In addition, if things go well, he would have two more seasons of arbitration-eligibility before becoming a free agent. 

What would Seth do? Easy choice. Tender him and go into the season with him as a 7th and 8th inning option.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Reached an agreement, terms not known yet. 

Bailey Ober
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $4.3 million 
bWAR: 2.9, fWAR: 2.9.  
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? #2 starting pitcher behind Pablo Lopez. Potential All-Star. After three big-league seasons in which they limited his innings and pitch counts, he hit 178 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year.
Is the money right? Absolutely.

What would Seth do? I have read a few times this offseason that Ober could be a trade candidate. That would really, really bother me, even understanding that he could bring back a huge haul of talent. Again, instead, I would reach out to Ballangee and see if they would be interested in a four or five year deal with some option years. I’m thinking something in the neighborhood of four years and $40 million with another option year at like $20 million in 2029. 

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Easy choice. Tendered. 

What actually happens: Tendered. 

Brock Stewart
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $800,000 
bWAR: -0.1, fWAR: 0.1.  
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Stewart has fought arm injuries throughout his entire career, but in 2023, we got to see him as one of the most dominant relievers that we have seen over a short period of time. Coupled with Duran and Jax, they can be locked down given a late lead. Unfortunately, in 2024, he was limited to just 16 games before the injury bug caught up to him again. So it’s impossible to know what Stewart will be able to provide, but simply for the price, keep him around!

Is the money right? For $40,000 over the league minimum, it’s very fair.   

What would Seth do? Easily tender. But, as a fan of long-term deals, I’d throw out an offer of four years and $3.8 million to him. If they have any confidence in his health coming into the 2025 season and don’t think his arm will fall off for at least three years, there’s little risk. Can be DFAd and you’re only out a million per year. For the upside here, I’m willing to take that risk. What would Stewart and Sterling Sports Management think? 

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. And, they’re smarter than me, so they will just go year to year.

What actually happens: Reached an Agreement at $870K. 

Griffin Jax
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.6 million 
bWAR: 2.8, fWAR: 2.6. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? In my mind, he would continue being one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, working the key parts of games anytime after the sixth inning. In his mind, and maybe in the mind of some with the Twins, he could be moved back to the starting rotation. It’s certainly intriguing because he is a completely different pitcher than when he posted a 6.37 ERA over 82 games in 2021. But he can’t air it out as a starter like he does as a reliever, so what does that starter look like? That said, I get it. There is a lot more money in starting pitching.

Is the money right? Absolutely deserved.

What would Seth do? Tender. Today is his 30th birthday which means that he won’t be a free agent until before his age-33 season, so it makes sense to go year-to-year with him. That said, because I love long-term deals and cost-certainty, I’d throw a four-year, $20 million offer to Ballangee and Jax and see if it leads to something. 

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender. 

What actually happens:  Tendered

Joe Ryan
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $3.8 million 
bWAR: 2.3, fWAR: 3.1.  
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Co-#2 starters in the Twins rotation with Ober, behind Lopez. Ryan was on his way to his best season in 2024 when he was hurt in mid-August. Not to overplay it, but in my opinion, that was the biggest loss of the Twins season. Over his three years in the rotation, he’s had 10 K/9 with just 2.1 BB/9. His WHIP over 135 innings in 2024 was 0.99 which is rare for a starting pitcher. His injury wasn’t elbow related, and it really wasn’t the concerning areas of the shoulder, so hopefully an offseason will bring him rest to have him a full-go by spring training.

Is the money right? Absolutely.

What would Seth do? I have read a few times this offseason that Ryan could be a trade candidate. That would really, really bother me, even understanding that he could bring back a huge haul of talent. Again, instead, I would reach out to CAA Spots and see if they would be interested in a four or five year deal with some option years. I’m thinking something in the neighborhood of five years and $55 million with another option year at like $20 million in 2030.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Tendered  

Trevor Larnach
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.1 million 
bWAR: 1.3, fWAR: 1.5. 
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting left fielder most games, or left field in a platoon situation.

Is the money right? Certainly. Expectations were probably a little low for Larnach when the season started, and he was on the Injured List. However, when he was deemed ready, he was brought right to the Twins and placed in the middle of the lineup, and he came through. He hit .259/.338/.434 (.771) with 17 doubles and 15 home runs in 112 games. He returned to his old self at the plate. After striking out over 31% in his three previous, partial seasons, he reduced his K% to 22.3% while maintaining a 10% BB%. Definitely something to build upon.   

What would Seth do? Tender. I’d probably wait a year to reach out to The Bledsoe Agency about a long-term deal, but I also feel that if he has the breakout season that I think he is capable of, that long-term deal will be much, much more expensive.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Tendered. 

Jhoan Duran
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $3.7 million
bWAR: 0.2, fWAR: 1.2.   
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Closer. While 2024 was a somewhat disappointing season for Duran, his size and strength are still there. He still struck out 10.9 per nine innings. He dropped his walk rate and his home run rate. His hard hit % and exit velocity again were down too. His BABIP was .321, so there's certainly some bad luck involved. My bigger concern has to do with his velocity. That’s a weird thing to say when his average fastball was 100.5 mph and his sprinkler was 97.0 mph. Both of those numbers were over 1.3 mph slower than the previous year. His curveball was down 1.6 mph, though that doesn’t concern me.

Is the money right? Yes. he’s been one of the more dominant relievers in baseball over the past three seasons.

What would Seth do? Easy tender. I wouldn’t hang up the phone if some team called asking about his availability. But like others, I would only deal Duran if completely overwhelmed.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Tendered. 

Royce Lewis
MLB Trade Rumor Projection: $2.3 million
bWAR: 0.7, fWAR: 1.2.  
Potential Fit for 2025 Twins? Starting third baseman (or second base, just decide now and let him get ready either way) and middle-of-the-order hitter. While he struggled down the stretch, we have seen plenty of moments and extended stretches of his potential and game-changing abilities. The power is legit. He has come up in some big moments and come through with big hits, including in the 2023 playoffs.

Is the money right? Lewis has 2.142 service years which makes him a Super 2. In other words, assuming he remains on the roster, he will have four years of arbitration.

What would Seth do? Tender, and try to get Mr. Boras to consider a long-term deal.

What Seth thinks the Twins will do? Tender.

What actually happens: Tendered. 

So, what do you think? If you were to Replace “Seth” with “Your Name” in this document, how might the article look different? If I was making the decisions (for the record, I am not), I would non-tender Willi Castro and Michael Tonkin. I’d prefer to trade Castro, but $6.2 million is just too much.  I think that Tonkin is the only one that the Twins actually will non-tender. Being a fan of long-term deals, I would reach out to at least half of these players in an attempt to sign them long term. Now, that doesn’t have to happen by Friday’s deadline, but since each would be tendered, they would have months to work on that.

UPDATE (5:21 pm):