The Path to an Elite Minnesota Twins Bullpen in 2025

[Nick Nelson]

Even with minimal offseason moves, it's not as big of a leap as you might think. Seriously.

Image courtesy of David Richard and Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The 2025 season will mark the 10-year anniversary of Kansas City's last World Series title, which was memorably earned through the might of a legendary relief corps. The Royals ranked 22nd among MLB teams in starting pitcher ERA that year, and 11th in offensive wOBA. They had zero players hit 25 home runs or post an .850 OPS. In many respects it was a fairly ordinary team. But, that bullpen.

Powered by Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson, Franklin Morales and closer Greg Holland, Kansas City's bullpen ranked second in MLB in ERA, third in fWAR. They took their game to the next level in the playoffs, leading the Royals past big-market titans in Houston, Toronto and New York on the way to a second championship in franchise history. 

Ten years ago, we witnessed the overwhelming impact of a consistently elite bullpen in the playoffs. And last year, within the same division, we saw it in the regular season. Cleveland ranked 24th in the majors in starting pitcher ERA. They ranked 17th among MLB teams in wOBA and 14th in runs scored. But their unbelievable, impenetrable bullpen, which led baseball in ERA and fWAR, turned game after game in their favor en route to a division title and ALCS berth. 

Hopefully the Twins will fare better in terms of offense and starting pitching than the 2015 Royals or 2024 Guardians. I'd argue they should be expected to do so as currently constructed. But it's clear that a truly transcendent bullpen could be the differentiator that flips Minnesota from middling contender to championship caliber in 2025. 

The path to a top-tier or even league-leading bullpen for the Minnesota Twins is not as improbable as one might believe. In fact, it's actually quite reasonable and straightforward.

For starters, by some measures, the Twins bullpen already was top-tier in 2024. Their relievers ranked fifth in the majors in fWAR and FIP, behind only Cleveland among AL teams. I know that's small consolation considering they ranked 19th in ERA and were susceptible to devastating meltdowns, but there was a lot of bad luck, rotten timing and batted-ball noise involved. 

Also some bad pitching. I don't want to discount that. But consider this: In 2024 the Twins had five veterans -- Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Trevor Richards -- combine to allow 86 earned runs in 146 ⅓ innings (5.29 ERA). Presumably none will be back next year. It's hard to imagine the replacements being worse. 

What the Twins are bringing back is an outstanding core. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax are an elite combo at the back end. Cole Sands is coming off a breakout year, as is Jorge Alcala to a lesser extent. Kody Funderburk and Ronny Henriquez have both shown flashes of promise and will both remain in the mix. Jovani Moran will be recovered from Tommy John surgery next spring and looking to reassert himself.

But there are two key additions, and a couple of prospect sleepers, I have my eye on who could really move the needle. 

First, Brock Stewart. If healthy and pitching up to his standard as a Twin (2.28 ERA, 12.3 K/9), he'll be their best reliever and will single-handedly lift the bullpen to another level. I know it's tough to believe in his health after another ruined season, but there seemed to be real optimism that the arthroscopic shoulder surgery he underwent in mid-August will finally resolve the issues that have been plaguing him. Stewart said at the time he was "kind of relieved to know that it's going to be fixed and I have a clean slate for next season.”

Second, Louie Varland. Following a frustrating season that saw him shifting between roles and levels, my hope is that the Twins will simply commit to Varland as a reliever from the jump next season with the hopes of fully unlocking his potential. We saw it on display in late 2023 and at times in '24. I truly believe that he can be that guy, or something close, as a full-time reliever pitching at max effort, and he can do it over multiple innings, which is so valuable in today's game.

Finally, more of a wild-card: Marco Raya. I listed him last week among four prospects who could have game-changing debuts in 2025, envisioning a multi-inning relief role that he'd be well suited for if he shows up at Triple-A throwing fire. Another pitcher I mentioned in that article was Connor Prielipp, who is more of a longshot after throwing just 30 innings the past two seasons, but is an arm the Twins will want to find a role for in the majors quickly if healthy.

Envisioning a bullpen with Varland, Raya and Prielipp all filling length roles on top of the existing core of Duran, Jax, Sands, and Alcala, with Stewart returning to the fold ... well, that's a unit that could absolutely dominate. I'm not going to say they'd be capable of matching what Cleveland did last year because no one is -- including Cleveland next year -- but it's absolutely in that class of talent, functionality and depth. And that's before you add any acquisitions, which will admittedly be low-wattage in all likelihood. 

I hope the Twins make at least one impactful addition to the bullpen from the outside, ideally a left-handed reliever with some level of credibility, but when you look at this group of arms -- ranked on paper as the No. 1 bullpen in baseball at present, according to FanGraphs -- it's easy to get excited about what lies ahead on the relief front. 

This is a big part of the reason no one should be discounting the Minnesota Twins as contenders, regardless of what happens this winter.  

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[CoasterProductions]

When it comes to left handed relieves I’m actually very intrigued in Garrett Cleavinger from the Rays. He’s only 1.4 mil and even though he has had injury issues he has been solid for them when healthy. I would also look into Kevin Kelly (also from the Rays) he has been very solid (2.88 ERA over past two seasons). Although he is a right handed pitcher he would only cost league minimum.

[Brandon]

And you didn’t even bring up Topa or Tonkin.  They are both solid back of the bullpen guys.  

[DJL44]

You didn't mention Topa, who has the potential to be pretty good if he's healthy. He has had more major league success than Varland, for example.

[DJL44]

If they move Jax to the rotation things could get thin quickly. Duran could be inconsistent again. Alcala and Sands could have a sophomore slump. Stewart and Topa might not pitch at all. I'd say they're just as likely to have the bullpen crater as they are to be at the top of the league.

[mike8791]

I like optimism for bmy favorite team, but I believe the rose-colored glasses need to come off.  No doubting Jax's amazing year, but how often do even the most elite relievers repeat?  I keep reading about Duran's bad luck, excellent stats, etc., but the man lost 9 GAMES!  He could bounce back - or he could continue his decline.  Sands had a surprisingly good year, but this is one year out of a very mediocre record.  Alcala and Varland are far too unpredictable to count on in critical situations.  Stewart's injury history precludes him from being counted on.  Ditto w/Topa.  

Bottom line - the FO needs to add a reliable LH reliever and another mid-inning RP to offer the team a reasonable pathway to top billing in 2025.  Counting on the existing roster is a fool's errand.

[EGFTShaw]

I am shocked!
Shocked there is gambling going on here.

Enough Casablanca references for Baseball.

But an overall positive view of the Twins roster is a shock to me on TD.

I am on board with being up beat with the Twins, (aside from the Scrouge Owners), roster.

There are some additions needed.

There is definitely a need to improve consistency.

And despite all the crap that surrounds our off season due to the pennies being pinched, we need to stop shopping the scrap heap.  

 

[gmwannabe]

I'm intrigued by Reid Detmers! He can hit 98 with his fastball, he's a lefty, he's a former 1st rounder, and the Angels may feel like they can't count on him in the rotation. Not sure what we would have to give up (Morris?). Let him start with the Saints and if doesn't get it together by mid season as starter depth,  move him to the Twins bullpen and tell him to let it rip for a few innings and solve our lefty in the pen vacancy.

[ashbury]

"If healthy."  Mrs. Ash is getting tired of hearing me scream every time I run across this phrase in an optimistic article at TD.

Also, with regard to those 2015 Royals, I'll mention again something I ran across while looking up stuff in another context.  According to baseball-reference.com they were in the top half of payroll across the majors that year.  No, they didn't spend like they were the Dodgers or Yankees, but they did pay their players - and in particular they paid to have some elite bullpen arms.  Our 2025 Twins will be comfortably in the bottom half of payroll and will not be going out and acquiring bullpen talent at market prices.

[TopGunn#22]

I don't disagree at all Nick, there is tremendous potential for this Twins BP, especially if they brought in a Caleb Ferguson ($1.8 million projected on Spotrac) or a similarly priced LH with similar effectiveness (like CoasterProductions mentioned with Garrett Cleavinger of the Rays).

And some of those arms you mentioned still in the minors (while also NOT mentioning Matt Canterino) could potentially work out quite well.  But there are a LOT of questions.  Is now the BEST time to trade Duran?  Especially if he can help bring back a Catcher of the Future--Rushing?.  If Griffin Jax is given a shot at the rotation and the Twins hit the Jackpot with him, they still need someone to fill his role.  Stewart has the stuff as would someone like Canterino, but you can't count on them health-wise.  

There is a lot of potential for the Twins to have a very good BP.  There is also a LOT of volatility there as well.  Some guys may work out.  Some guys may not make it out of spring training (Stewart/Canterino) and others are a coin flip how good they could be (Varland, Funderburk, Moran, Topa).  

I'd feel better if the Twins made an early move for a Ferguson or Cleavinger just to help stabilize the situation.  

[rdehring]

Great article, Nick, thanks.

Count me among those hoping Jax stays where he is and Varland also understands his future is in a bullpen where he could be very, very good.  I have believed since early summer that Duran's lack of spring training and missing the first month plus of the season was the reason he wasn't his normal self.

As you mentioned, believe they need one outside left-handed arm that is solid.  Then if Moran recovers and is good, that is gravy.

Am intrigued that Canterino remains on the 40-man.  If they didn't believe he could be healthy in 2025 gotta believe he would have been removed by now.  And if this young man can finally be healthy he could be a huge add to the pen by early summer.  

[chpettit19]

There is absolutely a path to an incredible bullpen for the 2025 Twins. Unlike the 2024 Twins, this pen could be built on young(ish) guys who throw gas with filthy breaking/off speed stuff. The 2024 Twins pen that people were calling the best pen in baseball before the season was built on one-hit-wonder veterans in their early- to mid-30s with health concerns and middling stuff. This one could be built completely differently. But we're talking about the Twins so the disclaimer of "health permitting" needs to be applied.

Jax, Duran, Sands, Varland, Alcala, Prielipp, Canterino, Stewart, Henriquez, Raya, Adams gives you a really nice base of arms to dig into as the season goes along and injuries and bad performance happen. You can add Funderburk, Moran, Topa, and some others to the list as well. The key to a good pen is either luck or options. You can't prepare for luck so you gather options. They have options. I like the position they're in as of today. 

With the 3 batter minimum rule I don't care about handedness of relievers much. I just want the most talented relievers I can get. The elite left-handed hitters in the game can hit lefties so I'm not bringing in a worse pitcher just because he throws with a different hand. The bad left-handed hitters get pinch hit for or are surrounded by right-handed hitters, or both, so bringing in a lefty to face them often leads to that lefty facing more righties anyways. So if he's not as good as the righty it's not ideal. I'll carry a pen full of righties if those 8 righties are better than any lefty options I have available to me. With the rules in place today relievers need to be able to get out hitters on both sides of the plate. It's why Okert failed. Don't worry about righty lefty. Get the best arms you can get. They have a pretty good stable of them right now. Never hurts to find better, though.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

I like optimism for bmy favorite team, but I believe the rose-colored glasses need to come off.  No doubting Jax's amazing year, but how often do even the most elite relievers repeat?  I keep reading about Duran's bad luck, excellent stats, etc., but the man lost 9 GAMES!  He could bounce back - or he could continue his decline.  Sands had a surprisingly good year, but this is one year out of a very mediocre record.  Alcala and Varland are far too unpredictable to count on in critical situations.  Stewart's injury history precludes him from being counted on.  Ditto w/Topa.  

Bottom line - the FO needs to add a reliable LH reliever and another mid-inning RP to offer the team a reasonable pathway to top billing in 2025.  Counting on the existing roster is a fool's errand.

That's the thing though: elite relievers do repeat, and that's what makes them elite. It's when you're paying average guys big money and expecting them to be consistent year after year that your bullpen ends up being a mess. Alcala, Sands, and Varland haven't shown they can get there consistently yet but all the signs suggests that Jax and Duran are elite relievers.

Jax hasn't had a poor year as a reliever and should be right in his prime. Duran hasn't even turned 27 yet and while last season wasn't up to his standards, he was still a quality reliever showing what can be reasonably looked at as his floor.

The Twins need to add a LHP for the bullpen; counting on Funderburk or Moran to fill that role from the jump is asking too much and too risky, especially when veteran help can be found without breaking the bank. But they may already have their multi-inning reliever in varland, who looks to be well-suited to throwing 1-2 innings of relief to bridge those middle innings.

I wouldn't count on Topa/Stewart because their health is too iffy, but the odds are decent that one of them will be able to add good innings this year. But when you have Jax & Duran for the highest leverage innings out the gate and Alcala and Sands coming in behind them, you have the basis for what can be an excellent bullpen. They were really good for most of 2024, just got ground down in the second half by not having enough consistent innings behind the top 4 guys.

Sands and Alcala were both good last year. legitimately good, with the peripherals to back it up.

[strumdatjag]

The Twins need Jovani Moran to contribute as a needed lefty in the pen.  It wouldn’t hurt to add another lefty in the offseason. 

[old nurse]

As it stands right now one of Festa or Mathew’s is the sixth starter.  Who is the seventh starter to start the season. Raya has had all of 1 start at AAA, Morris has had 7 starts but only 34 innings.   Unless they feign a better than Plutko type there needs to have another backup  to start  Varland will need to stay a starter. 

[TheLeviathan]

There is a path, but Stewart's health and the almost certain regression coming from Jax are likely to be major impediments.  

That said, I might feel better about the bullpen than I do about any other component of the team.

[Guest]

If half of the above comes true, then Jax has earned a shot at the rotation.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Don't worry about righty lefty. Get the best arms you can get. They have a pretty good stable of them right now. Never hurts to find better, though.

I don't want a bullpen full of 8 high fastball / low slider guys with the same release point. The article on Tonkin showed why an east-west look is valuable to have. A LHP can be a weapon if used correctly. If everyone has the same pitch mix, then there is no leverage.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't want a bullpen full of 8 high fastball / low slider guys with the same release point. The article on Tonkin showed why an east-west look is valuable to have. A LHP can be a weapon if used correctly. If everyone has the same pitch mix, then there is no leverage.

I'm not saying to completely ignore those sorts of things, but the #1 variable, in my opinion, should be talent. Okert had a job last year because he was left-handed. He wasn't more talented than other options they had, but he threw with the other hand and they wanted to be able to put him in there when those scary guys who stand on the other side of the plate came up for a 3rd time. And he was actually pretty effective at getting them out (.564 OPS against in 65 PAs). He was just completely useless at getting the other guys out (.984 OPS against in 95 PAs). Which made him a bad member of the team. And the new rules make it really hard to deploy guys like him against more lefties than righties. Especially lefties who are bad at hitting lefties. 

What are the odds that the Twins would end up with 8 guys with the same repertoire and release point? They certainly shouldn't be training their guys that way. They should be maximizing how each guy's body moves and building their repertoires around that. And then from there just give me the 8 most talented guys at getting major league hitters out at any given time.

My argument here is the same as with the lineup. Stop trying to find guys who do a singular thing well and give me the best baseball players. I don't want anymore Okerts or Margots just because they throw with their left hand or stand in the right-handed batter's box.

[CoasterProductions]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't want a bullpen full of 8 high fastball / low slider guys with the same release point. The article on Tonkin showed why an east-west look is valuable to have. A LHP can be a weapon if used correctly. If everyone has the same pitch mix, then there is no leverage.

I’d rather not bring Tonkin back when there is a better cheaper option elsewhere. Kevin Kelly (Rays) has posted a 2.88 ERA over the past two years and has thrown over 60IP both seasons. He has the same funky arm angle that Tonkin has and is a million dollars cheaper. I do feel that having some unique arms would be good. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, CoasterProductions said:

I’d rather not bring Tonkin back when there is a better cheaper option elsewhere. Kevin Kelly (Rays) has posted a 2.88 ERA over the past two years and has thrown over 60IP both seasons. He has the same funky arm angle that Tonkin has and is a million dollars cheaper. I do feel that having some unique arms would be good. 

Who are you suggesting the Twins trade to get Mr Kelly? May be cheaper financially, but certainly not cheaper to acquire. Rays don't just give away pre-arb players.

[CoasterProductions]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Who are you suggesting the Twins trade to get Mr Kelly? May be cheaper financially, but certainly not cheaper to acquire. Rays don't just give away pre-arb players.

My proposal that I made for my off-season blueprint would Christian Vasquez, Ricardo Olivar, and Josh Winder for Kelly and Garrett Cleavinger (which may help the chances of a trade happening because of his injury history, he is also a lefty so we’d be killing to birds with one stone). While we may need to eat some of Vasquez’s contract the Rays would be getting a significant upgrade compared to Ben Rortvedt, they would also be getting a pitcher who has not lived up to there prospect status which the Rays are famous for fixing pitchers with that type of profile, they would also end up getting a prospect in the top 15 of one of the better farm systems in the MLB.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, CoasterProductions said:

My proposal that I made for my off-season blueprint would Christian Vasquez, Ricardo Olivar, and Josh Winder for Kelly and Garrett Cleavinger (which may help the chances of a trade happening because of his injury history, he is also a lefty so we’d be killing to birds with one stone). While we may need to eat some of Vasquez’s contract the Rays would be getting a significant upgrade compared to Ben Rortvedt, they would also be getting a pitcher who has not lived up to there prospect status which the Rays are famous for fixing pitchers with that type of profile, they would also end up getting a prospect in the top 15 of one of the better farm systems in the MLB.

I don't think the Rays would be interested in adding Vazquez to Rortvedt as they've been pretty open about wanting better offensive production from their catchers. I'd have to check and see what the rules are for trading Rule 5 eligible players after the deadline, but I'm not sure they can trade Olivar right now. If the Rays really want him they can just take him in the Rule 5 and offer the Twins something much less than Kelly and Cleavinger to keep him in their system if they decide they don't want to carry him on their 26-man all year later. And, fyi, Winder was released by the Twins on the 13th so he's not longer with the team.

I like the idea of adding someone like Kelly, but productive players on pre-arb deals are not cheap and I don't think a package like this would be enough to get it done.

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think the Rays would be interested in adding Vazquez to Rortvedt as they've been pretty open about wanting better offensive production from their catchers. I'd have to check and see what the rules are for trading Rule 5 eligible players after the deadline, but I'm not sure they can trade Olivar right now. If the Rays really want him they can just take him in the Rule 5 and offer the Twins something much less than Kelly and Cleavinger to keep him in their system if they decide they don't want to carry him on their 26-man all year later. And, fyi, Winder was released by the Twins on the 13th so he's not longer with the team.

I like the idea of adding someone like Kelly, but productive players on pre-arb deals are not cheap and I don't think a package like this would be enough to get it done.

Supporting that:

Quote

The catching position, the production we got last year was nowhere near where it needed to be to be a playoff-contributing position,” Neander said. “We need to find a way to score more runs. I think there’s a few different ways we can go about doing that. But upgrading the catcher situation, without question.

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/tampa-bay-rays-reportedly-searching-for-offensive-help-at-catcher-position-this-offseason

The Rays were tied to Travis d'Arnaud, who isn't known for his bat. I'd suspect they'll be pursuing Gary Sanchez pretty hard as well. It's tough to say whether or not the Rays would pass on Vazquez as it's equally tough to gauge how other teams' front offices might view him.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

When it comes to left handed relieves I’m actually very intrigued in Garrett Cleavinger from the Rays. He’s only 1.4 mil and even though he has had injury issues he has been solid for them when healthy. I would also look into Kevin Kelly (also from the Rays) he has been very solid (2.88 ERA over past two seasons). Although he is a right handed pitcher he would only cost league minimum.

I'd be more inclined to target Mason Montgomery than Garrett Cleavinger, who puts way too many guys on base. Cleavinger has gotten decent results, but I there appears to be a significant element of luck in it.

[gman]

I don't think I would spend much time at the bargain bins. At least not this winter.  I think they could have 6 above average to elite arms next year. But I suspect they will utilize at least 8 other arms in the pen.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

As it stands right now one of Festa or Mathew’s is the sixth starter.  Who is the seventh starter to start the season. Raya has had all of 1 start at AAA, Morris has had 7 starts but only 34 innings.   Unless they feign a better than Plutko type there needs to have another backup  to start  Varland will need to stay a starter. 

I think it is a little early to make that choice with Varland.  If the Twins decide to keep him as a starter, he will have to make adjustments and prove he is more than a AAAA pitcher.  I don't see that happening until he gets a dozen MiLB starts in 2025.

I think there is a strong possibility the Twins sign another scrap heap starter to provide some depth.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The raw materials for an elite bullpen are certainly there, it just depends now on how the players actually play/stay healthy.  At their best, these guys are certainly at or near the top.  However, it is almost always a foregone conclusion that someone will implode, someone will be injured, etc.  That being said, most elite bullpens contain those things as well.  Having a few backup options in AAA is essential.

Since the three batter rule change and actual left-hander is probably not essential to the cause, as I agree that just having good pitchers takes care of that.  However, I'm enough a traditionalist to think that occasionally being able to throw a lefty out there helps to mix it up a little for the batters.  Not always, but sometimes.  Acquiring one (unless Funderburk/Headrick step up) would be a good idea. 

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If they move Jax to the rotation things could get thin quickly. Duran could be inconsistent again. Alcala and Sands could have a sophomore slump. Stewart and Topa might not pitch at all. I'd say they're just as likely to have the bullpen crater as they are to be at the top of the league.

See no chance of Jax moving to rotation…….why would they do this other than to appease Jax. I make HIM the closer and he can make more $$ in that role. I trade Duran in a package for offense or good young Cstcher.

[mikelink45]

It's the bullpen.  No one knows.  No one projects with accuracy.  I hope we are better, but nothing in this essay makes me fell secure.