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    Scouring the Market for a Capable Left-Handed Reliever


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins failed to take seriously their need for capable left-handed bullpen help this season, and paid for it. In a division full of threatening lefty bats, this confusing attitude needs to change, and quickly.

    Image courtesy of Eric Hartline-Imagn Images (Aaron Bummer)

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    To me, one of the most perplexing contradictions of this Minnesota Twins team and the way they operate is the contrasting prioritization of platoon advantages, from a hitting and pitching perspective.

    We all know that Rocco Baldelli loves to stack his starting lineup with opposite-handed bats, and is starkly averse to letting lefty hitters face lefty relievers late in games. This is undoubtedly an organization edict as much as a personal philosophy. If the Twins brass wanted Baldelli to stop playing the percentages to such an extreme, he'd stop. Clearly there is a shared belief that lefty hitters shouldn't be facing opposing lefties in late in games.

    At the same time, the club shows little urgency when it comes to equipping their roster with quality left-handed arms that can provide them with this same advantage. The Twins didn't have a left-hander make a start all season long (save for one appearance from Steven Okert as opener). Their lefty relievers on the Opening Day roster were Okert, acquired for Nick Gordon in a low-wattage trade with Miami, and Kody Funderburk, a former non-prospect with 12 innings of major-league experience. Waiting in the wings was an injured Caleb Thielbar, who was certainly more of a safe bet than the other two, but also 37 and showing signs of decline.

    All of these pitchers struggled mightily in 2024. Despite being a clear need at the trade deadline, the front office did not add a left-handed reliever, rather choosing to go with right-hander Trevor Richards, who supposedly specialized in neutralizing LH bats with a changeup but in reality just wasn't good. 

    The Twins found themselves so desperate for left-handed bullpen help late in the season that they acquired Cole Irvin off waivers and almost immediately started throwing him into crucial high-leverage situations (in which he floundered).

    It's time for the Twins to start practicing what they preach about platoon advantages, by bringing in a left-handed reliever who can actually be counted on to come through. In a division featuring the likes of Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, Baldelli needs better answers, especially since the team's minimal existing depth is drying up.

    Thielbar and Okert are gone, and Funderburk is back on the fringe. Yes, there are some intriguing names to watch internally: Brent Headrick, Connor Prielipp, Jovani Moran, and more. But there is zero doubt that lefty bullpen help must be high on the list of offseason priorities for the Twins front office. In a cursory look through the free agent market, here are some names that stand out to me (click to check out their Baseball Reference pages): 

    Tanner Scott: The Marlins closer was a first-time All-Star in 2024 before being traded at the deadline to San Diego, where he assisted a playoff run. He'd be a massive impact addition to the bullpen but is almost certainly out of Minnesota's price range.

    Aroldis Chapman: Personally, not a fan, and he's not what you'd consider a lefty specialist. Still, he's worth mentioning as one of the top southpaws on the market, still striking out hitters at an elite rate and coming off a strong year in Pittsburgh.

    Aaron Bummer: If he does become a free agent (Atlanta has a team option), Bummer is my favorite target. He's got major upside that he's flashed often in the past. The former White Sox standout has a wipeout sweeper and we know how the Twins love those. 

    Andrew Chafin: A familiar face from his days in Detroit. He's got one of the more consistent long-term track records you'll see from a relief pitcher, and is still getting it done in his mid-30s. Yet, his age and control issues might keep him relatively affordable. This one does seem to meet the sweet-spot criteria for the Twins.

    Caleb Ferguson: The 28-year-old has been tested under the bright lights, spending six seasons with the Dodgers before splitting 2024 between the Astros and Yankees. He's a proven performer, but coming off one of this worst seasons (4.64 ERA), which could suppress his price tag.

    Brooks Raley: If the Twins aren't looking to spend at the level of the above names, Raley might be a more realistic option. He underwent Tommy John surgery last May, so his readiness for the start of the season is in question, but Raley has a 3.42 ERA in five seasons since returning from a stint in Korea.

    Will Smith: Another possible buy-low target with some upside. Smith was long reputed as one of the top lefty relievers in the game, an All-Star in 2019, but he's struggled over the past couple seasons and was really bad in 2024. He'd be a project, but one with some real potential if the Twins feel they have reason to believe.

    Do any of these names interest you? Or would you be more inclined to rely on internal options and spend available resources elsewhere? Sound off in the comments.

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    That's a good list Nick, with a diversity of cost.  I'm not sure what Chapman would cost and he's not the elite guy he once was.  But he still strikes guys out at an impressive rate and he's got tons of closing experience.

    If I was to give Griffin Jax a chance at joining the rotation, I'd be very interested in Chapman.  On the days that Duran would be unavailable to close, Chapman could fill in.  Otherwise, Chapman could fill the 8th inning role if Jax was holding down the SP #4 slot. 

    If the Twins somehow add a SP who is talented and not very expensive (there's a very short list of these, but not even a handful of pitchers who could fill this profile) and you kept Jax as the 8th inning guy, Chapman fills the 7th inning and you've got a plethora of power arms to cover the 7th, 8th and 9th.   

    Bummer would be the clear #2 choice for me.  I think instead of signing 4 fringy guys like last season, adding ONE quality arm, especially if LH, would be a solid strategy.  This way, Funderburk and Moran don't have to be counted on, but if they perform they are critical, quality depth.  Someone like Varland could be groomed to be a 2 or even 3-inning guy.  Sands and Alcala provide quality arms on what would be a deep BP.

    But it won't matter who we sign if Rocco doesn't have a bullpen plan with clearly determined roles for his pitchers.  Duran only closes.  Jax/Chapman close on days Duran is not available etc...

    Duran will never have a season like Emmanuel Clase for the Twins until we put him in the same role as Cleveland puts Clase.  CLOSER !!  

    40 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

    But it won't matter who we sign if Rocco doesn't have a bullpen plan with clearly determined roles for his pitchers.  Duran only closes.  Jax/Chapman close on days Duran is not available etc...

    Duran will never have a season like Emmanuel Clase for the Twins until we put him in the same role as Cleveland puts Clase.  CLOSER !!  

    I don't understand the obsession with pigeonholing relief pitchers into certain innings. A relief pitcher's job is to pitch. The numbers on the scoreboard shouldn't matter. Go into the game and hit your spots with your pitches.

    Adding one good player doesn't keep them from adding 4-5 fringy players. Fringy players don't really cost anything if they're brought in on minor league contracts.

    I also think Rocco needs to give our pitchers clear cut roles. That way they can be prepared and know when they're going to be needed. I've got to believe the consistency will improve performance. I'd love it if we could get Chapman. He still strikes out a ton of guys and having him hurl heaters from the left side is a look our pen hasn't had in awhile. As for starters, I think we should go after Mathew Boyd. He proved he was healthy through the end of the season and pitched well in the playoffs. He's a lefty starter which we also haven't had in awhile and he should be within our price range. Another positive is we wouldn't have to instantly rely on Festa or Mathews, they could start the year in AAA, finish their development and find a groove before their next call-ups.

    Unfortunately finances will cloud every single article and discussion posted here about potential candidates to fill certain roles.

    When it comes to the bullpen, I am hard pressed to believe the team will invest dollars into a position that is volatile by nature, especially when there are more pressing needs.  The true difference makers here will be grossly priced out of the Twins market.

    I would expect to see the Twins offer MiLB contracts to any number of pitchers and see what sticks.  Another possibility is a low-end, make-good contract or old-guy, hanging-on contract

    Nice article, and a decent list of names. I'm not sure we can afford to sign a good free agent. My belief is that the Twins would have better shot at an effective LH reliever via trade. The guy we missed out on during the last trade deadline was Puk, as a couple posters have pointed out in the past. He sure didn't seem to cost much in prospect capital.

    I don't remember the last "scary" lefty pitcher we've had on the team - it's been years though. Puk would likely have been that.

    I'm looking forward to seeing how Prielipp develops.

    1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

    But it won't matter who we sign if Rocco doesn't have a bullpen plan with clearly determined roles for his pitchers.  Duran only closes.  Jax/Chapman close on days Duran is not available etc...

    Duran will never have a season like Emmanuel Clase for the Twins until we put him in the same role as Cleveland puts Clase.  CLOSER !!  

    Clase only closed, that's fair. And Duran should probably only close as well. But Cade Smith was an absolute monster this year and he threw 23.1 innings in the 6th this year, 29 in the 7th and 14.2 in the 8th. With 1.2 in the 9th, 1.2 in the 4th, and 5 in the 5th. Hunter Gaddis was phenomenal while throwing in both the 7th and 8th inning (mostly the 8th, though). Tim Herrin was great while throwing 22.2 innings in the 6th, 20.2 in the 7th, and 13.2 in the 8th (also through in the 3rd, 4th 5th, 9th, and 10th). Eli Morgan was yet another Cleveland reliever with a sub-1.00 WHIP who threw 8.1 innings in the 5th, 8.2 in the 6th, 9 in the 7th, 4.1 in the 8th, 5 in the 9th, 2 in extras, 1.1 in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd, and 1.1 in the 4th. 

    Clase and Gaddis threw a combined 149 innings this year. 17.2 came before the 8th inning (all by Gaddis). Clase had 2 in the 8th and 6.1 in the 10th. Duran and Jax had a combined 125.1 innings this year. 16.2 came before the 8th inning (all but 1 by Jax). So 11.5% of the Cleveland duo's innings vs 12.9% of the Minnesota duo's. Is that really that drastic of a difference? If you take out Duran's one 7th inning appearance it's 11.5 vs 12.1%. I mean it's a rounding error. I would use Duran more like Clase as he seems to be more dependent than I'd like on the emotion and adrenaline of the save situation for his performance, but Rocco used his 2 big guns before the 8th just as much as Cleveland used theirs.

    The pen has clearly determined roles. They just aren't clearly defined innings roles. They're clearly defined sections of the batting order roles. And they're the same roles virtually every team in major league baseball uses. And for good reason.

    As for capable lefties...give me Tanner Scott (never going to happen), Brooks Raley on a minor league deal or just find the best relievers you can. I don't care so much about handedness. Just get me guys who can get hitters out. If Duran, Jax, Sands, Varland, etc. are as good as we hope they can be it doesn't matter that none of them are left handed. Just get guys out.

     

    Caleb Ferguson interests me; I'm not too worried about his "down" season this year. the peripherals still look solid, and it's possible that throwing his cutter more will increase his effectiveness. twins have shown a solid ability to boost pitchers by tweaking their pitch mix. I hope other teams are scared off by the "down" season so we can afford him. he's still under 30 and doesn't get killed by RH, so he seems like a good fit, even if he's not historically pure death to all LH hitters.

    I'd be in on Bummer too, but I suspect Atl picks up the option. be great if they don't!

    Moran and Prielipp are intriguing options to me for internal choices, and maybe Funderburk can get it together, but I'm hoping the Twins have signed at least one more proven LHP for the bullpen. It's easily their biggest need that's not needing to be in fantasy land with their self-imposed payroll limitations.

    1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

    I don't understand the obsession with pigeonholing relief pitchers into certain innings. A relief pitcher's job is to pitch. The numbers on the scoreboard shouldn't matter. Go into the game and hit your spots with your pitches...

    People are human with stress factors and emotions which get mixed into their thought processes. Joe Nathan talked about not wanting to close because of confidence issues when he returned from TJ. There is extra pressure associated with closing. It's all on the pitcher, no chances to come back, etc. Many pitchers have talked about the added stress of closing or the benefits of knowing their position and their job rather than just being tossed around in the bullpen and never knowing what's coming next.

    3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    People are human with stress factors and emotions which get mixed into their thought processes. Joe Nathan talked about not wanting to close because of confidence issues when he returned from TJ. There is extra pressure associated with closing. It's all on the pitcher, no chances to come back, etc. Many pitchers have talked about the added stress of closing or the benefits of knowing their position and their job rather than just being tossed around in the bullpen and never knowing what's coming next.

    That's just 1 inning. Relievers are now used from the 6th through the 9th. What about the other 3 innings people want guys locked into? The guys in the bullpen know what's coming next without knowing whether they're throwing in the 6th or the 8th. They know they're throwing against hitters X, Y, and Z. Which allows them to study those hitters, know exactly how they're going to attack those hitters, and be as prepared as possible for those specific hitters instead of having to be prepared to face any of hitters 1 through 9. 

    The "new" roles of pen guys actually takes more stress off the lower guys in your pen because you're not just putting them out there to face the 3-4-5 hitters in a 1 run game in the 7th because they're the 7th inning guy. You're going to a higher leverage guy there because you're playing matchups instead of the inning. The human and stress factor is actually taken more into account in today's strategy than the strategy so many fans want to go back to.

    18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    ...The "new" roles of pen guys actually takes more stress off the lower guys in your pen because you're not just putting them out there to face the 3-4-5 hitters in a 1 run game in the 7th because they're the 7th inning guy...

    Find some quotes to that effect. The quotes I've seen from pitchers is they prefer some form of routine. Aside from that, I don't think I've ever seen anybody advocate for anything other than setup/closer roles. I'm not advocating for anything; just repeating what pitchers have talked about in the press.

    I don't get it. We have a problem, the solution is FA? 1st we need to extend our own. It seemed to me that Rogers liked it here, we know him & how to use him. Why not lock him up, avoid FA & we have our LHRP? Why now looking for FA to fill this need? Now that it didn't happen the best solution was to trade for Pukk. Now that this didn't happen we need to look for another LHRP to trade for. IMO the reason that we are looking at FA is because Falvey has no idea how to initiate & close a trade deal. Therefore the big push for FA is because we can't depend on another FO to drop a trade into Falvey's lap. 

    The owners have limited the budget, so Falvey wanting to jump into FA means that we'll have to cut muscle again to pay for it. Although there is some fat to cut, I don't trust them to see it. We have a lot of redundancy in the system that will cause roster problems ahead of the 5 draft. Why not go to the well trade off that redundancy? Our biggest problem wasn't the budget cuts that we couldn't dip into FA, It was the lack of relevant trades that actually filled our needs. Falvey will have to figure it out soon because the condition is worse. Sorry, but my outlook for the Twins, that found postseason success in '23, is to decline further because the true problem has not been resolved, 

    These guys all seem to have either control or inconsistency issues. Most seem to have both. I guess I don't see how most of these guys are really in much of a different situation than Okert was last year. More than any other position, there is less correlation between how much you pay a reliever and how they perform on the field. If the Twins can't fill the role internally (and I'd give that a shot first) I don't think the odds that any of these guys will perform to expectations are much higher than some random waiver-wire arm we'd all groan about. And really, any one of these guys is a poor three month stretch away from also being a waiver wire arm.

    Whether the club goes with known names or no-names, the free agent relievers rarely work out. If this team has a limited budget, I'm not going to squander it on bullpen pieces.

    8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    Find some quotes to that effect. The quotes I've seen from pitchers is they prefer some form of routine. Aside from that, I don't think I've ever seen anybody advocate for anything other than setup/closer roles. I'm not advocating for anything; just repeating what pitchers have talked about in the press.

    I don't need quotes. Go watch a playoff game. Best pen in baseball had their "setup guy" throwing in the 6th when it mattered. Hunter Gaddis pitched in 8 games in the postseason. 3 of them saw him throw in the 6th and/or 7th. This isn't a new phenomenon. Detroit used their best relievers all over the place in the playoffs. And those are "well run" teams with a World Series winning manager and the best pen in baseball that many around here wish Rocco would do things more like. 

    Routine doesn't have to mean inning. Routine doesn't have to mean batting order spot. It does for some, and it's up to coaches and managers to know their players well enough to know those things (it sure appears to mean closing for Duran). Andrew Miller's routine didn't need to be an inning. Jax's hasn't. Thielbar (when he was good) didn't. Routine and role don't automatically mean inning. It's how you prepare to pitch. It's how you prepare for the game. 

    Reliever roles change as we gain more information. Just like everything else. Quotes in the press from pitchers change as roles change. Joe Nathan hasn't thrown a major league pitch in 8 years, and hasn't thrown more than 6.1 innings in the majors in a decade. He was a stud, but quotes from him on pen management are not relevant anymore. 

    The Twins just need as many good arms as possible so who they throw when doesn't make such a difference. Take it out of Rocco's hands. Give him as little chance of screwing things up as possible. If all he has is good options it's hard to screw up routines and roles. 

    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    People are human with stress factors and emotions which get mixed into their thought processes. Joe Nathan talked about not wanting to close because of confidence issues when he returned from TJ. There is extra pressure associated with closing. It's all on the pitcher, no chances to come back, etc. Many pitchers have talked about the added stress of closing or the benefits of knowing their position and their job rather than just being tossed around in the bullpen and never knowing what's coming next.

    When is it not stressful to pitch to major leaguers? Why would we want any pitchers who only want to pitch when it isn't stressful? I want pitchers who want to get the best batters in the world out.

    It is nonsensical that we have to keep Duran as the closer (even if he's not effective) because he's "comfortable" there. When they're checking on free agent relievers are they asking them which inning they're comfortable pitching and not obtaining three sixth-inning guys and nobody for the seventh inning? What if you have five effective relievers who say "I only want to pitch if I'm closing". Do you trade four of them for less effective pitchers who only want to pitch lower stress innings in the seventh and eighth innings?

    Maybe the next time Duran needs to pitch in the 8th they can just change the scoreboard to make it look like it's the 9th and he'll be fine. They can even play his entrance song so he's more comfortable.

    6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    When is it not stressful to pitch to major leaguers? Why would we want any pitchers who only want to pitch when it isn't stressful? I want pitchers who want to get the best batters in the world out.

    I agree. This is similar to my feeling that if you're scared that calling up a young player will damage their psyche should they initially fail, that player likely shouldn't be in the long term plans. If these guys can't mentally handle the adversity or role change, they probably aren't the kind of guy that can perform and lead the team to post season success.

    And full disclosure, I'm also not that guy. I went behind the bleachers and barfed before every one of my high school track meets. So no judgements, just my observation. Winners seem to be built differently.

    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    Find some quotes to that effect. The quotes I've seen from pitchers is they prefer some form of routine. Aside from that, I don't think I've ever seen anybody advocate for anything other than setup/closer roles. I'm not advocating for anything; just repeating what pitchers have talked about in the press.

    They also liked the "closer" role as it evolved into 1 inning, 9th inning guy, in a save situation because it maximized their value on the market, because teams were substantially over-paying players for the save stat. So a lot of that also had to do with money. But the league as a whole has (correctly) gotten away from treating their "closer" as a 9th inning save guy to going back to the classic fireman role where the best reliever slams the door on the heart on the other teams lineup regardless of whether it's the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. 

    Which actually isn't a new strategy at all, more a repudiation of what developed in the 90's.

    2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    That's just 1 inning. Relievers are now used from the 6th through the 9th. What about the other 3 innings people want guys locked into? The guys in the bullpen know what's coming next without knowing whether they're throwing in the 6th or the 8th. They know they're throwing against hitters X, Y, and Z. Which allows them to study those hitters, know exactly how they're going to attack those hitters, and be as prepared as possible for those specific hitters instead of having to be prepared to face any of hitters 1 through 9. 

    The "new" roles of pen guys actually takes more stress off the lower guys in your pen because you're not just putting them out there to face the 3-4-5 hitters in a 1 run game in the 7th because they're the 7th inning guy. You're going to a higher leverage guy there because you're playing matchups instead of the inning. The human and stress factor is actually taken more into account in today's strategy than the strategy so many fans want to go back to.

    There you go, giving credit that people actually think things through 

    the thing someone doesn’t understand is the new routine is to be prepared to face certain parts of the order

    Edited by old nurse
    1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

    When is it not stressful to pitch to major leaguers? Why would we want any pitchers who only want to pitch when it isn't stressful?...

     

    1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

    I don't need quotes. Go watch a playoff game. Best pen in baseball had their "setup guy" throwing in the 6th when it mattered...

    The answer to the question of why relievers get pigeon-holed includes players suggesting they want to be pigeon-holed. Emotions are relevant impact baseball on and off the field, and regardless of whether or not you think relief pitchers should just be robots, they've said they're not.
    1. Humans like routine, and baseball players are human. It's not just relief pitchers; there are many quotes every year about players wanting to play a specific position or wanting a specific role like a starter wanting to pitch deeper into games and how a specific role impacts them mentally or physically in their preparation.
    2. Players like to get paid, and the "save" stat is used to determine pitcher compensation in arbitration, and the "closer" title gets relief pitchers dramatically larger contracts.
    3. Teams and MLB also like closers because they're especially marketable.

    Now onto addressing your position about the value of relievers being used as soon as any high leverage situation presents itself (which is not something I've even talked about, though the strawman highway construction project in here that I didn't requisition or agree to purchase would suggest otherwise...)
    4. The exact same scenario in the 5th inning and 9th inning present different leverage factors. The further into a tight game you get, the more impact a relief pitcher's performance can have on the game. i.e. you use your best reliever in the 6th inning out of desperation. If the exact same scenario exists in the 9th inning, the 9th inning scenario is much higher leverage, but you have to go to your mediocre reliever. Additionally, you could find yourself in a much higher leverage scenario in the later innings. If it's an absolute must win game, you have to roll the dice in the 6th inning with your closer because you don't know what will happen in the future, but it's a gamble. Over the course of a 162 game season, there's a fair chance the house wins at predicting the future vs. waiting until you know for certain you have high leverage and your team is very likely to win. Reserving your best pitchers for when the game is on the line is theoretically reasonable. If the Twins were to deploy Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in a 1 run game in the 5th and 6th inning and the 9th rolls around with the game tied and the Twins put Steven Okert in to close it resulting in walk off Twins loss, I suspect both of you would absolutely lose your minds about how Baldelli "wasted" Jax and Duran. That's just me speculating, though.

    Using Cleveland as the example, I'd suggest the way Cleveland played the entire year is more relevant to the regular season usage of pitchers than a short, must-win, risky playoff series. Throughout the year, the best bullpen in baseball (as you put it, @chpettit19) was deployed with a fairly dedicated closer (47 saves led AL) and fairly dedicated setup guy (33 holds) and most of the time, it was Gaddis who immediately preceded Clase.

    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    Humans like routine, and baseball players are human. It's not just relief pitchers; there are many quotes every year about players wanting to play a specific position or wanting a specific role like a starter wanting to pitch deeper into games and how a specific role impacts them mentally or physically in their preparation.

    I would like to employ the pitcher who says "I want to go into the game and get people out" and not employ the pitcher who says "I only like pitching in the seventh inning because the number 7 is a little sexier than the number 6 but less scary than the numbers 8 or 9."

    50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

     

    The answer to the question of why relievers get pigeon-holed includes players suggesting they want to be pigeon-holed. Emotions are relevant impact baseball on and off the field, and regardless of whether or not you think relief pitchers should just be robots, they've said they're not.
    1. Humans like routine, and baseball players are human. It's not just relief pitchers; there are many quotes every year about players wanting to play a specific position or wanting a specific role like a starter wanting to pitch deeper into games and how a specific role impacts them mentally or physically in their preparation.
    2. Players like to get paid, and the "save" stat is used to determine pitcher compensation in arbitration, and the "closer" title gets relief pitchers dramatically larger contracts.
    3. Teams and MLB also like closers because they're especially marketable.

    Now onto addressing your position about the value of relievers being used as soon as any high leverage situation presents itself (which is not something I've even talked about, though the strawman highway construction project in here that I didn't requisition or agree to purchase would suggest otherwise...)
    4. The exact same scenario in the 5th inning and 9th inning present different leverage factors. The further into a tight game you get, the more impact a relief pitcher's performance can have on the game. i.e. you use your best reliever in the 6th inning out of desperation. If the exact same scenario exists in the 9th inning, the 9th inning scenario is much higher leverage, but you have to go to your mediocre reliever. Additionally, you could find yourself in a much higher leverage scenario in the later innings. If it's an absolute must win game, you have to roll the dice in the 6th inning with your closer because you don't know what will happen in the future, but it's a gamble. Over the course of a 162 game season, there's a fair chance the house wins at predicting the future vs. waiting until you know for certain you have high leverage and your team is very likely to win. Reserving your best pitchers for when the game is on the line is theoretically reasonable. If the Twins were to deploy Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in a 1 run game in the 5th and 6th inning and the 9th rolls around with the game tied and the Twins put Steven Okert in to close it resulting in walk off Twins loss, I suspect both of you would absolutely lose your minds about how Baldelli "wasted" Jax and Duran. That's just me speculating, though.

    Using Cleveland as the example, I'd suggest the way Cleveland played the entire year is more relevant to the regular season usage of pitchers than a short, must-win, risky playoff series. Throughout the year, the best bullpen in baseball (as you put it, @chpettit19) was deployed with a fairly dedicated closer (47 saves led AL) and fairly dedicated setup guy (33 holds) and most of the time, it was Gaddis who immediately preceded Clase.

    Pen arms still have "routines." Their "routines" just don't have to be throwing the same inning/situation every time. The "routine" players talk about is in their preparation for playing. "I need to do A, B, and C to get ready to perform at my best every game" is routine, not "I need to throw in a save or hold situation every time." 

    Don't claim we're using strawman arguments and then suggest we're suggesting the Twins use Jax and Duran in the 5th and 6th. Nobody has suggested such a thing. We clearly understand leverage and are arguing for it as a tool to be used when determining when a pitcher is used over simply the inning. Because, as you well know, the inning itself does not solely determine the leverage. The section of the lineup that's coming up in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning matters. Unless you think every hitter is equally hard to get out based on the inning.

    Yes, the Guardians did have a dedicated closer and setup guy. So did the Twins. I gave a whole breakdown at the top. They used their big 2 before the 8th in 11.5% of their innings compared to 12.9% of the Twins big 2 innings. But when push came to shove and the Guardians were fighting for their season Hunter Gaddis (still a human in the playoffs I assume) had nearly half his appearances come in the 6th and 7th. Because the leverage and situation mattered more.

    Have been thinking since their season ended that a lefty reliever may be their biggest need that actually gets filled.

    But if money is as tight as it appears, what might be most likely to happen is a trade for a youngish lefty reliever.  Also believe that Moran just might be another candidate to solidify their 2025 bullpen.  He went under the knife, didn't he?  Does anyone know when he is expected back?  Always thought highly of him, and maybe his control problems were somewhat related to his injury.

    We always want to compare to the Guardians bullpen, but all of you have forgotten one important element to the comparison:  Carl Willis vs. Pete Maki.  Carl Willis is the master and until he retires, we will not be in the same league as him and that is nothing against Pete Maki as a coach.  I would love to see the Twins sign a strong LH FA and then let Moran, Funderburk, and Headrick try to make the team as a second LH reliever.  As for the bullpen order, it seems like the successful teams had a mid-leverage fireman that could get them out of an inning and also be used for an additional inning or two from the 4-6th inning.  If this was a normal organization, resigning Theilbar may be alright.  But I don't trust Baldelli or Maki with Theilbar and he will be used similar to this year and be a cop out to not signing a better LH reliever.  FInally, we also need to figure out what to do with Paddack.  Idk if he becomes that length fireman out of the bullpen or use him as a 5th starter.  I'm sure he would be the 5th starter since Festa and Matthews have options, but I'm not sure he is better than either of them at this point.

    To be clear, the days of a LOOGY are done. I'd rather have 8 RH quality arms in my pen who can HOPEFULLY get a LH batter out than a lefty specialist. That's why Okert was so disappointing and while the collapse of Thielbar was more so, as he was solid for a few years against RH bats. 

    I know I'm repeating myself here, and I'm not offering up answers right now, but figuring out 1B, adding a quality RH OF bat who doesn't such against RHP, and ONE quality LHRP are the top 3 priorities for the FO in 2025. 

    HOPEFULLY you still have ONE good LH arm you can trust in the 7th and 8th, think Thielbar pre 2024. IDEALLY, you have a 2nd LH arm you can feel good about in the 6th and maybe the 7th. Even IF the FO raises payroll as a "goodbye present" to the FO that will cost them pennies, the Twins probably aren't going to be able to add a $5M dollar RP no matter what. So I immediately dismiss the top options.

    Without taking the time to look at every single pitcher I reference here in regard to splits, there are some interesting ideas here.

    I agree Bummer looks good, but he's probably re-upped with the Braves.

    Dangit! So who's next? 

    Chafin keeps plugging along and doing his thing, but I'm not interested in good K numbers and bad BB numbers from a 34yo arm who made $5M last season.

    Ferguson had a bad year with a high BB total but good K % at 28yo and only made $2.4M last year? He should be a major target!

    Raley should be a MILB target at his age and coming off surgery. Period. (But I'd do it). 

    Smith is also a MILB deal target. Period. 

    I'm betting Bummer won't be an option. I'm interested in Chafin on a 1yr deal less than the almost $5M he made last year. Ferguson sticks out to me as a smart signing despite some high BB numbers. He only made about $2.5M last year. And Raley on an incentive deal falls right in line with the way Falvey has often looked at pitching opportunities in the past. Raley is similar to the Pineda deal a few years ago.

    MY THEORY ON LHRP is conversion. NOT MENTIONED in the OP is, are there LHP out there late 20's who haven't put it together yet, or coming off injury, that can be moved to the pen to maximize their stuff and re-define their career?

    INTERNALLY, I'm 100% on moving Headrick to the pen tomorrow and throwing his best stuff for 1-2 IP and see what you've got. I'm on the same boat with Nowlin...i hate not waiting to see if he MIGHT settle in as a SP option...but with so many other rotation options ahead of him, i think any control issues can be mitigated by being a hard throwing LH option in the pen vs waiting and hoping he's a late draftee who MIGHT be a back end rotation arm. 

    Headrick and Nowlin and the talented Funderburk, who has good stuff, should all be in ST to see what they can do. Funderburk is already in the pen, but Headrick and Nowlin should also be. ONE MORE addition from what Nick has presented, or maybe another option from somewhere else I'm not thinking of right now, COULD/SHOULD give the pen multiple options.

    Let's not forget that come May, or June, if not immediately, Moran is a very talented arm that might surprise everyone.

     

     




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