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If you're feeling down about the Minnesota Twins, you're not alone. The latest season ended in bitter disappointment, and a long winter lies ahead filled with difficult decisions stemming from frustrating payroll constraints. It's difficult to envision the Twins getting a whole lot better on paper when they've already signaled no intent to raise payroll. Merely keeping together their existing talent will be a tall task.
Vibes are not generally positive. Here on the site I've found myself covering a lot of downer topics recently, from the back concerns facing Brooks Lee and Jose Miranda to somber reflections on Alex Kirilloff's shortened career. It's time to pivot to a fresh perspective with a reminder that the Twins find themselves in a situation that is far from hopeless. In fact, there are a number of reasons to feel pretty good about the team's outlook, even if the offseason proves to be as unexciting as expected.
A Contending Talent Baseline
“We really had a tough run over the last six weeks and didn’t play as well as we could have and that’s on us,” Derek Falvey told Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Star Tribune at the GM Meetings. “We’ve had to do some deep dives and a lot of deep introspection with frustration around that. But we feel like that core is still there from ‘23, even the core that held us up for a good chunk of last year. I’m confident that core from last year can get us back to where we need as related to next year.”
Falvey's not just blowing hot air. According to projections from FanGraphs, based on players currently in organizations, the Twins are favored to top the AL Central next year with a .520 winning percentage. They have, by one measure, the fourth-best roster in the American League heading into the offseason. That might not be terribly meaningful, because it's likely that division rivals (especially Detroit and Kansas City) will be active in improving this offseason while the Twins mostly stand pat. But it is a more objective reminder that the Twins retain plenty of proven high-caliber talent.
With minor changes, this is still the same core that won the division and advanced in the playoffs in 2023. The same group that boasted the best record in baseball over a four-month span in 2024. Yes, everyone slumped simultaneously down the stretch and it was brutal to watch, but there's little reason to think that will carry forward. Because:
Year-to-Year Momentum Doesn't Exist in Baseball
It's debatable whether team momentum exists within a baseball season. Many sabermetric types will say no; I find that hard to fully accept after watching this year's Twins team click on all cylinders during prolonged hot streaks and then collectively go in the tank as their season-ending struggles snowballed.
But when you zoom out, there is just no reason to believe momentum exists on a year-to-year basis for MLB teams. Evidence in recent Minnesota Twins history certainly argues against it.
In 2016, the Twins experienced an utterly disastrous season where everything went wrong -- a "total system failure." The next year they improved by 26 wins and reached the postseason. In 2018, the Twins finished below .500, a disappointing drop-off that got Paul Molitor dismissed as manager. In 2019 they went 101-61, winning the Central behind a 23-win improvement.
In 2022, the Twins collapsed in similar fashion to what we just now witnessed. They went 11-22 in September/October to fumble away a division lead they held for most of the season. As bad of a finish as you could imagine. The next year, they rebounded to win the Central with ease and then took their first postseason series in almost 20 years.
So yeah, the 2024 Twins ended on a sour note. Does it matter going forward? Not really. And I'd argue that same thing goes the other way for, say, Detroit's season-ending scorcher.
Young Players Follow Volatile and Unpredictable Development Paths
In looking back at some of the past examples we just covered, especially the turnaround from 2016 to 2017, one thing that stands out to me is how fluctuations in performance from developing young players influenced the highs and lows. Worth keeping in mind as we evaluate a 2025 Twins team whose fate will largely be dictated by impressive talents at similar stages.
Among the reasons Minnesota flopped in 2016: Miguel Sanó and Eddie Rosario both took big steps backward following impressive rookie campaigns. Top pitching prospect José Berríos floundered in his MLB debut, posting an 8.02 ERA over 14 starts despite flashing impressive stuff at times. In 2017, Sanó and Rosario were both monsters at the plate, driving much of the team's offensive improvement, and Berríos instantly turned the corner to become a frontline starter.
I think about these examples as I weigh the outlooks of hitters like Edouard Julien and Lee, or pitchers like David Festa and Zebby Matthews. They weren't necessarily good this year, but they are talented players. Oftentimes it turns on a dime for skilled guys in the 24-to-27 age range.
The Stars Seem to Be Aligned
The core nucleus of the Twins, and the reason they cannot be discounted as championship contenders, comprises these four players: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Pablo López. Appraisals may vary on these four at the moment but from my view they remain clearly the best and highest-upside players on the team. They will also combine to account for more than half the payroll next year, so much hinges on them all delivering on their promise to some extent.
We didn't get full, representative seasons from any of them in 2024. Correa lost half the year to injury. Buxton missed two months of games. Lewis experienced a staggering second-half slump from which he never emerged. López pitched to an average-ish ERA overall. But we absolutely saw the signs of greatness from all four, and each one seems potentially primed for big things in 2025.
While you'd be hard-pressed to call Correa or Buxton free of health concerns, each one finished the year playing and producing. Buxton looked forward to a normal offseason free of his usual rehab regimen. Correa has a full three months to treat and resolve his plantar fasciitis, which he successfully overcame in the other foot last winter. When on the field in 2024, Buxton performed like an All-Star and Correa performed like an MVP.
Lewis's deep slump in August and September was obviously alarming, but you can't talk about the .496 OPS in his last 41 games without talking about the 1.000 OPS in his first 41 games. Not to mention what he did the previous season and in October. While he might have been physically drained, Lewis ended the year healthy and something tells me he'll be determined to emphatically get back to where he was.
As for López, he was not amazing but he was good -- phenomenal at times -- and (importantly) healthy all year long. Per fWAR, he's a top 10 pitcher in the major leagues over the past two seasons. He's an ace. I don't really harbor any substantial doubts or concerns about him.
So you take those four, and then you factor in the surrounding talent, and it's really not difficult at all to foresee a very good or even downright dominant Twins team in 2025, springing merely from the foundation that they already have in place. With this in mind, and understanding their resource limitations, a few savvy moves on the fringes from the front office this winter could go a long way.
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