Don't Underestimate the Winning Foundation of the 2025 Minnesota Twins

[Nick Nelson]

It's very easy to get caught up in the dejection of a terrible late-season collapse and an offseason that promises to be underwhelming. But Twins fans shouldn't lose sight of the quality pieces in place for this team. Minnesota will be a contender in 2025.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

If you're feeling down about the Minnesota Twins, you're not alone. The latest season ended in bitter disappointment, and a long winter lies ahead filled with difficult decisions stemming from frustrating payroll constraints. It's difficult to envision the Twins getting a whole lot better on paper when they've already signaled no intent to raise payroll. Merely keeping together their existing talent will be a tall task.

Vibes are not generally positive. Here on the site I've found myself covering a lot of downer topics recently, from the back concerns facing Brooks Lee and Jose Miranda to somber reflections on Alex Kirilloff's shortened career. It's time to pivot to a fresh perspective with a reminder that the Twins find themselves in a situation that is far from hopeless. In fact, there are a number of reasons to feel pretty good about the team's outlook, even if the offseason proves to be as unexciting as expected.

A Contending Talent Baseline
“We really had a tough run over the last six weeks and didn’t play as well as we could have and that’s on us,” Derek Falvey told Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Star Tribune at the GM Meetings. “We’ve had to do some deep dives and a lot of deep introspection with frustration around that. But we feel like that core is still there from ‘23, even the core that held us up for a good chunk of last year. I’m confident that core from last year can get us back to where we need as related to next year.”

Falvey's not just blowing hot air. According to projections from FanGraphs, based on players currently in organizations, the Twins are favored to top the AL Central next year with a .520 winning percentage. They have, by one measure, the fourth-best roster in the American League heading into the offseason. That might not be terribly meaningful, because it's likely that division rivals (especially Detroit and Kansas City) will be active in improving this offseason while the Twins mostly stand pat. But it is a more objective reminder that the Twins retain plenty of proven high-caliber talent.

With minor changes, this is still the same core that won the division and advanced in the playoffs in 2023. The same group that boasted the best record in baseball over a four-month span in 2024. Yes, everyone slumped simultaneously down the stretch and it was brutal to watch, but there's little reason to think that will carry forward. Because:

Year-to-Year Momentum Doesn't Exist in Baseball
It's debatable whether team momentum exists within a baseball season. Many sabermetric types will say no; I find that hard to fully accept after watching this year's Twins team click on all cylinders during prolonged hot streaks and then collectively go in the tank as their season-ending struggles snowballed. 

But when you zoom out, there is just no reason to believe momentum exists on a year-to-year basis for MLB teams. Evidence in recent Minnesota Twins history certainly argues against it.

In 2016, the Twins experienced an utterly disastrous season where everything went wrong -- a "total system failure." The next year they improved by 26 wins and reached the postseason. In 2018, the Twins finished below .500, a disappointing drop-off that got Paul Molitor dismissed as manager. In 2019 they went 101-61, winning the Central behind a 23-win improvement.

In 2022, the Twins collapsed in similar fashion to what we just now witnessed. They went 11-22 in September/October to fumble away a division lead they held for most of the season. As bad of a finish as you could imagine. The next year, they rebounded to win the Central with ease and then took their first postseason series in almost 20 years.

So yeah, the 2024 Twins ended on a sour note. Does it matter going forward? Not really. And I'd argue that same thing goes the other way for, say, Detroit's season-ending scorcher. 

Young Players Follow Volatile and Unpredictable Development Paths
In looking back at some of the past examples we just covered, especially the turnaround from 2016 to 2017, one thing that stands out to me is how fluctuations in performance from developing young players influenced the highs and lows. Worth keeping in mind as we evaluate a 2025 Twins team whose fate will largely be dictated by impressive talents at similar stages.

Among the reasons Minnesota flopped in 2016: Miguel Sanó and Eddie Rosario both took big steps backward following impressive rookie campaigns. Top pitching prospect José Berríos floundered in his MLB debut, posting an 8.02 ERA over 14 starts despite flashing impressive stuff at times. In 2017, Sanó and Rosario were both monsters at the plate, driving much of the team's offensive improvement, and Berríos instantly turned the corner to become a frontline starter.

I think about these examples as I weigh the outlooks of hitters like Edouard Julien and Lee, or pitchers like David Festa and Zebby Matthews. They weren't necessarily good this year, but they are talented players. Oftentimes it turns on a dime for skilled guys in the 24-to-27 age range. 

The Stars Seem to Be Aligned
The core nucleus of the Twins, and the reason they cannot be discounted as championship contenders, comprises these four players: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Pablo López. Appraisals may vary on these four at the moment but from my view they remain clearly the best and highest-upside players on the team. They will also combine to account for more than half the payroll next year, so much hinges on them all delivering on their promise to some extent.

We didn't get full, representative seasons from any of them in 2024. Correa lost half the year to injury. Buxton missed two months of games. Lewis experienced a staggering second-half slump from which he never emerged. López pitched to an average-ish ERA overall. But we absolutely saw the signs of greatness from all four, and each one seems potentially primed for big things in 2025.

While you'd be hard-pressed to call Correa or Buxton free of health concerns, each one finished the year playing and producing. Buxton looked forward to a normal offseason free of his usual rehab regimen. Correa has a full three months to treat and resolve his plantar fasciitis, which he successfully overcame in the other foot last winter. When on the field in 2024, Buxton performed like an All-Star and Correa performed like an MVP.

Lewis's deep slump in August and September was obviously alarming, but you can't talk about the .496 OPS in his last 41 games without talking about the 1.000 OPS in his first 41 games. Not to mention what he did the previous season and in October. While he might have been physically drained, Lewis ended the year healthy and something tells me he'll be determined to emphatically get back to where he was.

As for López, he was not amazing but he was good -- phenomenal at times -- and (importantly) healthy all year long. Per fWAR, he's a top 10 pitcher in the major leagues over the past two seasons. He's an ace. I don't really harbor any substantial doubts or concerns about him.

So you take those four, and then you factor in the surrounding talent, and it's really not difficult at all to foresee a very good or even downright dominant Twins team in 2025, springing merely from the foundation that they already have in place. With this in mind, and understanding their resource limitations, a few savvy moves on the fringes from the front office this winter could go a long way.

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[LambchoP]

I'm not sure I believe we're the fourth best team in the AL, but I do believe we have a good enough core to be a potential playoff threat. With just a few more additions I think we'd have a real shot. A power hitting first baseman, a RH hitting fourth outfielder, a SP and a lefty reliever for our pen and we should be all set. How and if we fill these holes with no money remains to be seen. I just hope they don't give up on the off-season without even trying to get better. Fans are pissed enough after last year's deadline and late season collapse. We deserve a little something that shows ownership cares about winning.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Is there a reason top be somewhat optimistic?  Sure... but look at what needs to happen for the Twins to be successful:

Buxton needs to play 120 games
Correa needs to play 120 games
Lewis needs to play 120 games (and probably make an effective move to 2B)
Larnach needs to prove last year was no fluke
Miranda needs to prove his 2nd half was no fluke (and probably be able to handle 1B defensively)
Wallner needs to prove his 2nd half was no fluke
SWR needs to pitch at least to last years level
Festa and/or Matthews needs to stabilize and become a solid SP5
One of the Lee, Martin, Julien needs to become a stable, rotational player

All teams have questions.  All teams have some semblance of risk.  But this team currently has very legitimate questions all over the place.  The Twins have little to no margin for error.  If the above mentioned items do not happen, this could very easily be a 75-win team, especially in a very competitive division.

[Whitey333]

I agree that at this point the Twins are 4th best.  But not in the AL.  Fourth best in the central is more like it!!  IMO everything would have to fall into place for this team to be relevant.   Too many holes, too many question marks.  This "core" as you say has missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years with two of those seasons by  collapses.   Hardly a ringing endorsement.

[stringer bell]

Will all of the question marks be answered positively? Nah, that’s why parlays pay off so well.

Due to self-imposed payroll constraints, the Twins need more of their gambles to pay off because there will be fewer viable depth and “Plan B” options.

With no more additions or subtractions, my current projection for Opening Day includes four of Julien, Keirsey Jr., Martin, Lee and Helman and leaves precious little depth in the minors.

One can hope that the pitching is better, but there is always a risk that the plan goes sideways.

I remain frustrated that the Twins choose to try to compete without spending increases, but it appears these are the cards that are being dealt. 

[DuluthRoots]

Having just watched the World Series, I can only conclude: we could make the playoffs, but no way win the Series.

[old nurse]

In 2018 Buxton was injured early as was Ervin Santana. Those two losses coupled with the replacement level replacements doomed Molitor. Why didn’t they add better players at the deadline? They wanted their  type for manager. Most of the players have gone through the up and down. I doubt there should be much carryover. Christian Vasquez is still looking for his lost bat. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

This "core" as you say has missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years with two of those seasons by  collapses.   Hardly a ringing endorsement.

The flip side of this is that they were in position to make the playoffs in 3 of those past 4 seasons before stunning (fluky?) collapses in the final stretch in two. That actually kind of does seem like an endorsement since, as mentioned, the "momentum" from that collapse doesn't carry forward. The quality of the team and its talent does though.

[Mike Sixel]

Excellent post.... If things break right for a change, this is a good team. But the odds are low, imo, those three hitters will be healthy long enough. So it depends on a lot of other things going right.

[jmlease1]

I think this is right. Fans experience much more carryover from the previous season than the players/teams do and remember how things ended much more than the totality of the season. 2024 was a failure for the team, because they collapsed so badly down the stretch and simply couldn't not find a way to overcome so many players all struggling at the same time. but if we had re-ordered the results and had the awful Sept occur in May and the team rounding into shape to end the season...we'd all feel a lot more positive. And knowing that ownership ain't investing this year, after not investing last year certainly turns down the optimism.

I do think it's a good sign for 2025 that Lewis, Buxton, and Correa finished the season on the field and are not facing surgeries in the off-season. Correa has rehab to contend with, but he managed that well enough last year and played very well (just not enough) in 2024.

The talent base is good enough to win. Some things will go better than last season, some will probably go worse. but we're relying on very few players who could or should be considered past their prime for significant contributions. the pitching staff is almost all under 30; Brock Stewart and Justin Topa are the only guys over 30 that can/should expect roles and neither are core players. the lineup is similar: Correa at 30 and Buxton at 31 are the "old" guys in the starting lineup right now and the only other guy with a job over 30 is a backup catcher (who might get traded).

The real shame is that with the 2023 payroll, the 2025 Twins would easily be a contender, with the ability to add a LH RP and RH 1B with proven track records with ease.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins do have a number of talented players. The problem is balance. 

Additionally, the use of "core" indicates players that a team has and can count on to perform as regulars at an above average level of play. This probably needs to be examined. Core players usually would not include players with less than one season's games worth of experience.

I do believe the Twins have talent. The question is if that talent can return a performance in 2025 that is an  improvement on 2024. I'm not seeing it with the current 40 person roster.

[Unwinder]

Ober erasure

[bean5302]

Evaluating the Twins' current roster, excluding Castro who the Twins cannot afford without other moves looks about like this to me. Med WAR is if people just perform to expectations with expected playing time, etc. The danger is with top players missing time or performing poorly because they have a bigger impact on "expected" results.
 

Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
C	Ryan	Jeffers	1.5	2.0	3.0
1B	Jose	Miranda	1.5	2.0	2.5
2B	Brooks	Lee	0.0	1.0	2.0
3B	Royce	Lewis	1.0	3.0	6.0
SS	Carlos	Correa	2.0	4.0	5.0
LF	Trevor	Larnach	1.0	1.5	2.5
CF	Byron	Buxton	2.0	3.0	4.0
RF	Matt	Wallner	2.5	4.0	5.0
DH	Edouard	Julien	0.0	1.0	2.0
BC	Christian	Vazquez	0.0	0.5	1.0
Util	Austin	Martin	0.0	1.0	1.5
Util	Micheal	Helman	0.0	0.0	1.0
Util	DaShawn	Keirsey	0.0	0.5	1.0
Position Players			11.5	23.5	36.5
Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
SP1	Pablo	Lopez	2.0	3.0	4.0
SP2	Joe	Ryan	1.0	2.0	3.0
SP3	Bailey	Ober	1.0	2.0	3.0
SP4	Chris	Paddack	0.0	0.5	1.0
SP5	Simeon	WR	1.0	1.5	2.5
SP6	David	Festa	1.0	1.5	3.0
SP7	Zebby	Matthews	0.0	1.0	1.5
Rotation			6.0	11.5	18.0
Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
RP1	Jhoan	Duran	1.0	1.5	2.5
RP2	Griffin	Jax	1.0	1.5	2.5
RP3	Brock	Stewart	0.0	0.5	1.5
RP4	Cole	Sands	0.5	1.0	1.5
RP5	Jorge	Alcala	0.0	0.5	1.5
RP6	Kody	Funderburk	-0.5	0.5	1.0
RP7	Louie	Varland	-0.5	0.1	0.5
RP8	Michael	Tonkin	0.0	0.2	0.5
RP9	Ronny	Henriquez	-1.0	-0.5	0.0
RP10	Matt	Canterino	0.0	0.0	1.0
Bullpen			0.5	5.3	12.5
Total WAR			18.0	40.3	67.0
Replacement Team Wins at MLB			45.0	45.0	45.0
Total Team Wins Proj			63.0	85.3	112.0

[Reptevia]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Evaluating the Twins' current roster, excluding Castro who the Twins cannot afford without other moves looks about like this to me. Med WAR is if people just perform to expectations with expected playing time, etc. The danger is with top players missing time or performing poorly because they have a bigger impact on "expected" results.
 

Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
C	Ryan	Jeffers	1.5	2.0	3.0
1B	Jose	Miranda	1.5	2.0	2.5
2B	Brooks	Lee	0.0	1.0	2.0
3B	Royce	Lewis	1.0	3.0	6.0
SS	Carlos	Correa	2.0	4.0	5.0
LF	Trevor	Larnach	1.0	1.5	2.5
CF	Byron	Buxton	2.0	3.0	4.0
RF	Matt	Wallner	2.5	4.0	5.0
DH	Edouard	Julien	0.0	1.0	2.0
BC	Christian	Vazquez	0.0	0.5	1.0
Util	Austin	Martin	0.0	1.0	1.5
Util	Micheal	Helman	0.0	0.0	1.0
Util	DaShawn	Keirsey	0.0	0.5	1.0
Position Players			11.5	23.5	36.5
Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
SP1	Pablo	Lopez	2.0	3.0	4.0
SP2	Joe	Ryan	1.0	2.0	3.0
SP3	Bailey	Ober	1.0	2.0	3.0
SP4	Chris	Paddack	0.0	0.5	1.0
SP5	Simeon	WR	1.0	1.5	2.5
SP6	David	Festa	1.0	1.5	3.0
SP7	Zebby	Matthews	0.0	1.0	1.5
Rotation			6.0	11.5	18.0
Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
RP1	Jhoan	Duran	1.0	1.5	2.5
RP2	Griffin	Jax	1.0	1.5	2.5
RP3	Brock	Stewart	0.0	0.5	1.5
RP4	Cole	Sands	0.5	1.0	1.5
RP5	Jorge	Alcala	0.0	0.5	1.5
RP6	Kody	Funderburk	-0.5	0.5	1.0
RP7	Louie	Varland	-0.5	0.1	0.5
RP8	Michael	Tonkin	0.0	0.2	0.5
RP9	Ronny	Henriquez	-1.0	-0.5	0.0
RP10	Matt	Canterino	0.0	0.0	1.0
Bullpen			0.5	5.3	12.5
Total WAR			18.0	40.3	67.0
Replacement Team Wins at MLB			45.0	45.0	45.0
Total Team Wins Proj			63.0	85.3	112.0

I don’t think anyone is reaching max war. Maybe half  will hit med war. Looks like a reasonable win total is about 75. 

[mickster]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Evaluating the Twins' current roster, excluding Castro who the Twins cannot afford without other moves looks about like this to me. Med WAR is if people just perform to expectations with expected playing time, etc. The danger is with top players missing time or performing poorly because they have a bigger impact on "expected" results.
 

Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
C	Ryan	Jeffers	1.5	2.0	3.0
1B	Jose	Miranda	1.5	2.0	2.5
2B	Brooks	Lee	0.0	1.0	2.0
3B	Royce	Lewis	1.0	3.0	6.0
SS	Carlos	Correa	2.0	4.0	5.0
LF	Trevor	Larnach	1.0	1.5	2.5
CF	Byron	Buxton	2.0	3.0	4.0
RF	Matt	Wallner	2.5	4.0	5.0
DH	Edouard	Julien	0.0	1.0	2.0
BC	Christian	Vazquez	0.0	0.5	1.0
Util	Austin	Martin	0.0	1.0	1.5
Util	Micheal	Helman	0.0	0.0	1.0
Util	DaShawn	Keirsey	0.0	0.5	1.0
Position Players			11.5	23.5	36.5
Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
SP1	Pablo	Lopez	2.0	3.0	4.0
SP2	Joe	Ryan	1.0	2.0	3.0
SP3	Bailey	Ober	1.0	2.0	3.0
SP4	Chris	Paddack	0.0	0.5	1.0
SP5	Simeon	WR	1.0	1.5	2.5
SP6	David	Festa	1.0	1.5	3.0
SP7	Zebby	Matthews	0.0	1.0	1.5
Rotation			6.0	11.5	18.0
Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
RP1	Jhoan	Duran	1.0	1.5	2.5
RP2	Griffin	Jax	1.0	1.5	2.5
RP3	Brock	Stewart	0.0	0.5	1.5
RP4	Cole	Sands	0.5	1.0	1.5
RP5	Jorge	Alcala	0.0	0.5	1.5
RP6	Kody	Funderburk	-0.5	0.5	1.0
RP7	Louie	Varland	-0.5	0.1	0.5
RP8	Michael	Tonkin	0.0	0.2	0.5
RP9	Ronny	Henriquez	-1.0	-0.5	0.0
RP10	Matt	Canterino	0.0	0.0	1.0
Bullpen			0.5	5.3	12.5
Total WAR			18.0	40.3	67.0
Replacement Team Wins at MLB			45.0	45.0	45.0
Total Team Wins Proj			63.0	85.3	112.0

If Lee, Martin, Helman and Kiersay are all on the opening day lineup we are in trouble.    I would like them all to be traded.   We are hanging on to prospects way too long and not enough prove to be Major League regulars.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, mickster said:

If Lee, Martin, Helman and Kiersay are all on the opening day lineup we are in trouble.    I would like them all to be traded.   We are hanging on to prospects way too long and not enough prove to be Major League regulars.

Lee has been a professional baseball player for less than three years, and that's too long? Unreal. 

the other two likely have little to no value. They are backups. 

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

I don’t think anyone is reaching max war. Maybe half  will hit med war. Looks like a reasonable win total is about 75. 

That's what I consider to be their ceiling if everything goes their way. It's unrealistic to expect more than a few guys to hit it, and more unrealistic to expect luck to just happen for only the best players. That's why I included a medium (expected) and low end.

14 minutes ago, mickster said:

If Lee, Martin, Helman and Kiersay are all on the opening day lineup we are in trouble.    I would like them all to be traded.   We are hanging on to prospects way too long and not enough prove to be Major League regulars.

This is what we have right now. Are their substantially better options under the team control I can put there? I made an offseason plan which actually meddles with the roster the way I'd try to do things if you want to check it out:

 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Total WAR			18.0	40.3	67.0
Replacement Team Wins at MLB			45.0	45.0	45.0
Total Team Wins Proj			63.0	85.3	112.0

If there's any upside it's that you're -22 and +27. Maybe 87.5 wins (+/- 24.5) is your true median but it depends on the best players playing a whole season.

[Doctor Gast]

Many fans are up & down but I've maintained all along that we have a great core, A great core isn't a guarantee for a successful season. The core talent & chemistry needs to be maintained & the essential holes are recognized & filled in order the team can sustain any success they have throughout the season. If they don't, any success is short-term.

 

[Linus]

In my opinion you can easily project a reasonable path for the Twins to win 86-90 games next year. Problematically you can just as easily and reasonably project a 75-79 win season. Their starting pitching should be good and that is always the most important place to start. There is potential in the lineup for the younger guys to take another step forward……or fizzle out. Health will be a big factor for sure. 2025 is going to make or break a bunch of peoples careers. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Evaluating the Twins' current roster, excluding Castro who the Twins cannot afford without other moves looks about like this to me. Med WAR is if people just perform to expectations with expected playing time, etc. The danger is with top players missing time or performing poorly because they have a bigger impact on "expected" results.
 

Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
C	Ryan	Jeffers	1.5	2.0	3.0
1B	Jose	Miranda	1.5	2.0	2.5
2B	Brooks	Lee	0.0	1.0	2.0
3B	Royce	Lewis	1.0	3.0	6.0
SS	Carlos	Correa	2.0	4.0	5.0
LF	Trevor	Larnach	1.0	1.5	2.5
CF	Byron	Buxton	2.0	3.0	4.0
RF	Matt	Wallner	2.5	4.0	5.0
DH	Edouard	Julien	0.0	1.0	2.0
BC	Christian	Vazquez	0.0	0.5	1.0
Util	Austin	Martin	0.0	1.0	1.5
Util	Micheal	Helman	0.0	0.0	1.0
Util	DaShawn	Keirsey	0.0	0.5	1.0
Position Players			11.5	23.5	36.5
Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
SP1	Pablo	Lopez	2.0	3.0	4.0
SP2	Joe	Ryan	1.0	2.0	3.0
SP3	Bailey	Ober	1.0	2.0	3.0
SP4	Chris	Paddack	0.0	0.5	1.0
SP5	Simeon	WR	1.0	1.5	2.5
SP6	David	Festa	1.0	1.5	3.0
SP7	Zebby	Matthews	0.0	1.0	1.5
Rotation			6.0	11.5	18.0
Position	First	Last	Min WAR	Med WAR	Max WAR
RP1	Jhoan	Duran	1.0	1.5	2.5
RP2	Griffin	Jax	1.0	1.5	2.5
RP3	Brock	Stewart	0.0	0.5	1.5
RP4	Cole	Sands	0.5	1.0	1.5
RP5	Jorge	Alcala	0.0	0.5	1.5
RP6	Kody	Funderburk	-0.5	0.5	1.0
RP7	Louie	Varland	-0.5	0.1	0.5
RP8	Michael	Tonkin	0.0	0.2	0.5
RP9	Ronny	Henriquez	-1.0	-0.5	0.0
RP10	Matt	Canterino	0.0	0.0	1.0
Bullpen			0.5	5.3	12.5
Total WAR			18.0	40.3	67.0
Replacement Team Wins at MLB			45.0	45.0	45.0
Total Team Wins Proj			63.0	85.3	112.0

This kind of matches my eye test and what we've seen the last 2 years. This is about an 85 win team with the current roster. If they have significant injuries - last year Ryan was the big one - they drop to 80 or so. If everyone hits at the same time, they win 90ish games. Good enough to make the playoffs if things go right and maybe even win a series; not good enough to contend for a WS berth unless they bring in outside talent or every single young player takes a big step forward at the same time.  Deja Vu all over again. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If there's any upside it's that you're -22 and +27. Maybe 87.5 wins (+/- 24.5) is your true median but it depends on the best players playing a whole season.

Not really. I expected Buxton to play 80 games for 3 WAR for example. I'm not forecasting based on full seasons because it's simply not going to happen under Baldelli. For Buxton at 4 WAR, I'm assuming 100 games.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Evaluating the Twins' current roster, excluding Castro who the Twins cannot afford without other moves looks about like this to me. Med WAR is if people just perform to expectations with expected playing time, etc. The danger is with top players missing time or performing poorly because they have a bigger impact on "expected" results.

Keeping Castro is the difference between a playoff team and an also-ran. If they can dump Paddack so they can keep Castro they gain a couple of wins. If they can add a LH reliever there's another one. An outfielder who moves Larnach to DH adds another win.

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Keeping Castro is the difference between a playoff team and an also-ran. If they can dump Paddack so they can keep Castro they gain a couple of wins. If they can add a LH reliever there's another one. An outfielder who moves Larnach to DH adds another win.

Assuming the Twins package a prospect to unload Paddack's $7.5MM, they can roll with the grid above keeping Castro. I'd estimate the Twins at 87 wins provided whatever injuries happen aren't unexpected for the best players. Finishing 2nd or 3rd in the division. Maybe a 50% shot at the playoffs slotting in at 5th or 6th seed?

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The flip side of this is that they were in position to make the playoffs in 3 of those past 4 seasons before stunning (fluky?) collapses in the final stretch in two. That actually kind of does seem like an endorsement since, as mentioned, the "momentum" from that collapse doesn't carry forward. The quality of the team and its talent does though.

What was "fluky," about last season? Young position players scuffled at times, guys with lengthy injury histories got hurt and missed time, back end bullpen fodder burned out, and the only major pitching injury the club has dealt with in the last 2 years didn't occur until mid August. In a vacuum none of the struggles should've/would've been surprising enough to be considered a fluke. 

All but 3-4 teams in the AL were "in position," to make the postseason in late August. I don't find much solace in a bar that low. 

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Excellent post.... If things break right for a change, this is a good team. But the odds are low, imo, those three hitters will be healthy long enough. So it depends on a lot of other things going right.

Twins fans need to move past the idea that this club is snakebitten. 

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Twins fans need to move past the idea that this club is snakebitten. 

Thanks for the advice!

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Thanks for the advice!

Always looking out for ya

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I agree that at this point the Twins are 4th best.  But not in the AL.  Fourth best in the central is more like it!!  IMO everything would have to fall into place for this team to be relevant.   Too many holes, too many question marks.  This "core" as you say has missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years with two of those seasons by  collapses.   Hardly a ringing endorsement.

A lot has to fall into place for any team to be relevant

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Not really. I expected Buxton to play 80 games for 3 WAR for example. I'm not forecasting based on full seasons because it's simply not going to happen under Baldelli. For Buxton at 4 WAR, I'm assuming 100 games.

Because Baldelli is responsible for players getting hurt? Not sure I get this take.