These 4 Twins Prospects Could Have Game-Changing MLB Debuts in 2025

[Nick Nelson]

Limited in their ability to add externally this offseason, the Minnesota Twins will inevitably be pressed to rely on reinforcements from within to drive their improvement next year. Here's why that isn't such an unwelcoming proposition.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Luke Keaschall) and Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (Marco Raya)

Generally speaking, it is unwise to expect prospects to arrive in the major leagues and be immediately effective. That goes without saying. We have seen plenty of highly touted talents flounder in their first exposure to the majors, with Brooks Lee serving as the latest example. Finding one's stride in the big leagues can take a while, and sometimes it never happens.

But sometimes, it happens immediately, and the impact can be profound. In looking back at some of the most successful Twins seasons of the recent past, you can almost always find one rookie fresh out of the minors who took the league by storm and provided the team with a massive, game-changing jolt. Last year it was Edouard Julien. In 2019 it was Luis Arraez. Looking back a little further: Miguel Sano (2015), Danny Valencia (2010), Denard Span (2008) and Francisco Liriano (2006) all come to mind as rookies who dramatically changed the fortunes of their teams for the better.

The 2025 Twins are going to need a spark like that, and maybe more than one. The good news is that, in addition to a hopeful sophomore turnaround from Lee, there are also a handful of prospects in the high minors who have yet to debut but could very well do so next year if healthy. 

Any one of these four players is absolutely capable of delivering an impact on the level of the names we just mentioned.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
I wrote recently that Rodriguez is coming in hot following another season of phenomenal performance in the minors, which saw him finish in Triple-A rated as a top-30 prospect in baseball. He's one of the most intriguing, high-upside bats in any system, with a combination of patience and power that is rarely seen. He recently underwent surgery (a "cleanup procedure") to address the thumb injury that repeatedly sidelined him this past season, and should be a full go for spring training.

"He’s such a unique profile,” Derek Falvey recently told Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. “It’s almost impossible to look at that profile and say how it’s going to translate to the big leagues because no one else has it. He’s very, very unique and he’s so young, he’s still growing and still getting better ... I’m excited about next spring training because I’m looking forward to a healthy version with a little bit more experience.”

A left-handed hitter, Rodriguez can play all three outfield spots, including center. As Falvey alludes, his extreme skill set makes it difficult to project his MLB performance confidently, even by the already volatile standard of any rookie debuting in the majors. But if it clicks quickly, Rodriguez could legitimately be the best hitter in the lineup, next year and for many that follow.

 

Luke Keaschall, 2B
Since being drafted in the second round in 2023, Keaschall has carved through the minors, ascending to Double-A this year while accumulating a .300/.419/.482 slash line through 133 games as a pro. Like Rodriguez, he ranks in the Top 100 on MLB Pipeline's global prospect list, checking in at No. 63. Like Rodriguez, he finished the year on the injured list.

The Twins shut down Keaschall, who was playing through a known elbow ligament injury, in August to have him undergo Tommy John surgery, with an eye on a full recovery leading up to next spring. As long as he can get back to where he was at the plate, Keaschall will become an immediate factor in Minnesota's plans. His right-handed bat could be a critical addition for the Twins, who badly need to upgrade over what they received from the likes of Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot this season.

 

Marco Raya, RHP
In some ways, Raya was brought along very slowly and cautiously. He didn't make an official appearance until the third year after he was drafted, and his workload has been carefully managed. But in other ways, the Twins have been very aggressive, pushing him through levels quickly to the point where he finished this year with a start at Triple-A. 

Even with the pitch-count reins loosened somewhat, Raya still threw only 98 innings in 25 starts. It's difficult to envision him stepping into a rotation role as a starter facing lineups multiple times, but I could definitely see him an as a weapon in a multi-inning bullpen role, which I've always wondered if the Twins were grooming him for. Raya will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to avoid eligibility for the Rule 5 draft.

 

Connor Prielipp, LHP
Prielipp has lost so, so much time to injury. He was limited to just 28 innings at Alabama, causing him to fall from the top of the first round to the top of the second, where Minnesota selected him in 2022. And arm injuries have limited him to just 30 total innings in two years since being drafted. But few would question Prielipp is capable of if healthy.

The hope is that his latest elbow surgery will prove to be a permanent fix for Prielipp's perpetual health woes. He sure looked healthy in his return to action this year, striking out 41 in 23 innings for a 45% K-rate across nine appearances, most of them at High-A Cedar Rapids. 

Prielipp turns 24 this offseason and has barely pitched professionally. The idea of developing him as a starter feels far-fetched at this point. However, if the Twins commit to him as a reliever, he's got the stuff to enter the big-league picture very quickly. And as it happens, left-handed relief help is one of the clearest and most urgent needs on the roster.

 

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[Whitey333]

Another article about can't miss prospects having a major league impact.  Let's call it what it is Fantasy Land.  They MAY make it to the Twins sometime in 2025 but it's unlikely any of those will make much of an impact.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Upon reading this article, I was drawn to looking up each of these past players' debut seasons (and career).  It was decidedly a mixed bag as some went on to more good years and others flamed out quickly.  One player who I think we certainly under-appreciate is Denard Span.  His first two years were really excellent and his overall career numbers are solid as well.

Back to this article, it strikes me that any of these players could make an impact, albeit in very different ways.  The easiest to see would be ERod, as any amount of ineffectiveness or injury would open a spot for him to come in and shine.  I'm not sure what to make of Keaschall.  He seems very promising but I think there are probably too many guys in the way who are likely to get their chances to succeed or fail before he gets there.  The two pitchers are talented, but unless they go to the bullpen, I would be hard pressed to see them in the rotation unless something went horribly wrong with our pitching staff.  I think the most likely outcomes for this year would be ERod getting his shot and Prielipp coming up through the bullpen.  The others probably need to wait. 

On the other hand, Zebby Matthews, who while not officially a rookie, could really break out if given an opportunity this year.  I'm anxious for the new season already!

[jmlease1]

16 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Another article about can't miss prospects having a major league impact.  Let's call it what it is Fantasy Land.  They MAY make it to the Twins sometime in 2025 but it's unlikely any of those will make much of an impact.

yes, our prospects never make any impact. We probably shouldn't even bother having the minor league clubs.

except SWR saved the rotation in 2024 with 28 league average starts that we desperately needed.

Julien, Wallner, and Lewis were instrumental in the Twins winning the division and their first playoff wins in forever in 2023.

Duran emerged in 2022 as a dominant force in the bullpen.

It's pretty normal for a prospect to come in and make an impact on a team. Maybe it won't be one of these 4, but it absolutely could be. Most years a prospect will join the team and make an impact, sometimes more than one.

I wouldn't say we had one in 2021, but 2020 is when Jeffers arrived as a badly needed partner for the now injured Garver. 2019 gave us the Luis Arraez Experience.

5 of the last 6 years had a prospect come up and make a real impact on the Twins. Even if it's not one of these four, I'd bet it's going to be someone.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd move prielipp to RP for at least this year. If he survives and they want to stretch him out, they can the following year. He's not likely to pitch many innings this year

[jmlease1]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd move prielipp to RP for at least this year. If he survives and they want to stretch him out, they can the following year. He's not likely to pitch many innings this year

Maybe he serves as an "opener" this year? I like the possibilities he could bring to the bullpen, hope to see him tested against AA hitters to start the season.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

A lot depends on moves made this offseason, but looking at the current roster:

Rodriguez has a shot at making the opening day roster.  More likely he is the first OF call-up once the season starts.

Keaschall has zero chance of making the team out of ST.  If he picks up where he left off, he could be a call-up option in the 2nd half of the season.

Raya has a very outside chance of making the team out of ST.  More likely the Twins continue to slow-grow him, giving him AAA innings probably making him the second SP called up if necessary (behind the loser of the Festa/Matthews battle)

Prelipp needs health, confidence, and success at AA before there will be any consideration of the team calling him ion 2025.  More likely he is a 2026 candidate

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Maybe he serves as an "opener" this year? I like the possibilities he could bring to the bullpen, hope to see him tested against AA hitters to start the season.

Not a good idea. Prielipp is the pitcher you want to face the best lefthanded hitters. Making him an opener would take away his leverage and let the opposing team stack the lineup with RH hitters.

[bean5302]

39 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

... One player who I think we certainly under-appreciate is Denard Span...

Span was underappreciated for years and years. He was a 3-4 WAR (borderline All Star) player through his career prime, and he accumulated a very respectable 27 / 28 WAR during his career. A career which would have been increased and expanded (see what I did there?) had he focused on keeping his speed up. Span's career WAR is right in line with some names people would definitely recognize like Josh Hamilton, Terry Steinbach, J.J. Hardy, and Justin Morneau. A very good player who was largely overlooked, though he did receive RoY-6 and an MVP vote in 2014 when he led the league in hits, and the Twins sure could use some prime Span on their roster defensively as Span often flirted with DRS +20, recorded a perfect 1.000 fielding pct season along with leading all of baseball with in RF/G and the league in putouts as a center fielder. 

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Span was underappreciated for years and years. He was a 3-4 WAR (borderline All Star) player through his career prime, and he accumulated a very respectable 27 / 28 WAR during his career. A career which would have been increased and expanded (see what I did there?) had he focused on keeping his speed up. Span's career WAR is right in line with some names people would definitely recognize like Josh Hamilton, Terry Steinbach, J.J. Hardy, and Justin Morneau. A very good player who was largely overlooked, though he did receive RoY-6 and an MVP vote in 2014 when he led the league in hits, and the Twins sure could use some prime Span on their roster defensively as Span often flirted with DRS +20, recorded a perfect 1.000 fielding pct season along with leading all of baseball with in RF/G and the league in putouts as a center fielder. 

Span was a really good player who value declined sharply once his defense dropped off in CF. Maybe he could have stayed faster for longer, but it also just might be like a lot of players that you can't keep it going into your 30's when you get past your physical prime. Very valuable player his first 7 years, just another guy his last 4. Biggest problem was the Twins tried to sell high on him and didn't get the return they needed, taking back an oft-injured player with control issues who made it to MLB primarily on scholarship and was out of baseball before he turned 28.

If you don't keep the Spans of the world, you can't trade them for an Alex Meyer.

[bean5302]

None of these guys has any place on the opening day roster. Not even close. With questions around each of them, the Twins should be committed to giving these prospects a better chance to prove they're ready. 200 PA or 10 starts is where I'd put the floor on when you might have a real feel for a player's with any question marks' readiness.

Brooks Lee had question marks after his struggles in AAA in 2023, yet the Twins made the call for him after 136 plate appearances this year, and Lee was absolutely not ready. 

Rodriguez is certainly the leader in likelihood of getting the call to help the Twins first. He had 30 PA in AAA where his K rate was 40%. It's a SSSS, but his K rate has always been a major cause for concern on his ceiling. He needs some time to prove he can keep the K rate down at AAA, though Spring Training will likely give the Twins a nice sneak peek. Last year, Emma K'd in 54% of Spring Training plate appearances while people were calling for Matt Wallner's head as he K'd in 38%. While the Twins are likely to call for Rodriguez first, if he's hitting well, I hope they exercise some patience and let him get some playing time.

Luke Keaschall missed everything after July of last year with Tommy John on his throwing arm, and he hasn't had a single plate appearance above AA, where hints of his ceiling were possibly starting to show. The expectation is Keaschall will be ready for a normal MiLB (mid-March) Spring Training timeline. People should keep in mind, a top 50 prospect would be considered a huge success if they turned into a 2 WAR player. I think the Twins will have Keaschall in AAA to start the year, but again, I wouldn't want to see him with the Twins until he's gotten at least 200 PA there.

Raya has half a season of pitching more than 3.0 inning / 50 pitch starts in the last few years. He needs to prove he can handle an 80+ pitch workload for 5 or 10 starts. That's if he can get the performance, too.

Prielipp is the site writer dark horse favorite to save the universe this year, it seems. The Twins shouldn't call him up until September next year, if at all. He's either a starter or he's not, and using him out of the bullpen pushes back the potential he could start for the Twins by a full year. Considering starters are 3-4x more valuable than relief pitchers, calling for Prielipp is settling way too early.

[DocBauer]

Rodriguez is hard to figure. He's got immense potential that's almost scary good. But there's enough questions about contact to scare you some. He wa so good last season you could see him force his way on to the roster quickly if he's 100%. But he's also missed enough time to think he won't be ready until mid year. But I agree he could be a surprise difference maker in 2025.

I've become a big fan of Keaschall. I can see him up mid season as well, just needing some AAA time to get comfortable again after missing the end to 2024 and make sure his elbow is 100%. Partially if his arm strength hasn't been sapped, I'd see him up as a utility player initially. And he might be a future Castro replacement, but possibly even a better bat.

I don't see Raya as help this year. They got him through the season healthy, got him to 90IP, and got him to AAA. I think the gloves start to come off in 2025, but he's behind both Matthews and Morris at this point, and very possibly behind Lewis as well. His ETA is 2026 IMO.

I can see a reality where Prielipp is up late in the year to help the pen. But 24yo in 2025 at AA...most likely...is not old enough to give up on an arm like his in the rotation. No way. And his innings are going to be limited so I'm doubting he gets extra work late in the year with the Twins. 

If this is FINALLY the year Canterino is healthy...elbow is fixed and he's not coming off any other procedures...I believe he'll be a reliever going forward and has a better chance than Prielipp of helping the Twins this year.

[HerbieFan]

Thanks Nick.  Always enjoy the work.  I love content like this.  I'm sick of hearing about "right-sized payrolls", crappy TV deals, Correa trade rumors, tone-deaf owners, etc..  GIve me content that shows the glass is still way more than half full for this team.

Love the inclusion of Keaschall on this list.  With the talk of what they will do at 2B, his name rarely seems to come up.  This organization will only go as far as their player development can take them and if he looks ready in ST I see no reason to not give him a shot.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

Thanks Nick.  Always enjoy the work.  I love content like this.  I'm sick of hearing about "right-sized payrolls", crappy TV deals, Correa trade rumors, tone-deaf owners, etc..  GIve me content that shows the glass is still way more than half full for this team.

Love the inclusion of Keaschall on this list.  With the talk of what they will do at 2B, his name rarely seems to come up.  This organization will only go as far as their player development can take them and if he looks ready in ST I see no reason to not give him a shot.

Keaschell is a top 50 prospect on mlb.com, I think. But he's not going to start the year in the majors. 

[Brandon]

From the rookie class who succeeded out the gate, Danny Santana says 👋🏽 hi.  He hit. Over .300 with an OPS over .800 his first season.  

[Major League Ready]

Rodriquez is so key.  He has the highest ceiling, and he fits a key need.  An OFer that hits LH&RH pitching that can cover CF when Buxton is out.  Plenty of bat to be a corner OFer when Buxton is in the lineup.  Good defender and has pretty good speed on a team lacking it.  I hope they move him up quickly if he comes out of the gates strong in STP.  150 AAA ABs and we might see him at Target Field.

Keaschall is another guy that will improve our athleticism but it does not sound like he has an obvious defensive position.  I have a feeling he will take over the Castro role minus SS plus 1B.  He will be in the lineup nearly every day but at a variety of positions.

I have been praying for Prielipp to get it together since they signed him because we have had very few pitching prospects with his upside.  Prielipp finding his health and realizing his potential would be enormous for this team.  It sure would be nice if we were on the right side of one of these stories and he becomes our Tarik Skubal.

[RpR]

'Til tomorrow come what may

Tomorrow, tomorrow
I love ya tomorrow
You're always, a day away
Tomorrow, tomorrow
I love ya tomorrow
You're always, a day away

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

I'm all for giving players an opportunity to shine. Overall, I'd like to see if they can make an impact at AAA 1st, which none of them have. I would have liked to have seen Keirsey given the chance to see how much of an impact he could have had, after making an impact at AAA prior. The only player who might make an impact this season is Emma, like I said with Brooks Lee. Even if he'd have a good spring training. I'd still like to see him prove himself at AAA. 

The rest I could see a late call-up to get their feet wet but that's it. I still like to see where Keaschal's arm is at before making a better judgment.  I've been criticized for advocating to have had Kiriloff stationed at 1B so it'd be easier on his body & chided that 1B is no different than any other position. So tell me why Keaschal, after the discovery about his arm, was placed at 1B, where he had never played before pro, & was a waste of his talent if it was not because it was to preserve him? Why not keep him at 2B & OF?

[tony&rodney]

Both Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall may hit their way into the lineup. I'm quite curious to see what Payton Eeles shows in Spring Training. He isn't too young to throw to the wolves and his numbers from last summer are intriguing. Perhaps  there is some attention paid to earning jobs. The Twins have experience at C, SS, CF, and DH. That is it. The players who show should get the opportunity.

[UK Twin]

If Rodriguez has a monster Spring Training, Twins should just ride with it and include him on the roster from opening day. There's a clear opening on the roster for him with Kepler departing if he can show he's ready.

[Fatbat]

Great article as always!! With the reality that payroll is pretty much static, the team will be very young for ‘25/26/27.  Its nice to know that our drafting/development is top notch!  
Rookies shouldn’t need to be counted on from day one but as the season unfolds, it’s likely that we may have an historic rookie class.  Not just these 4 prospects but 4-5 more that will be in the mix.  To me, this is much more exciting than signing or trading for an average established MLB’r place setter until someone takes his place. If there every was a year to bet on the farm kids making an impact in MLB, it’s ‘25. Erod and LK especially have performed at every stop in their way to the show and there is no reason to believe that they can’t be MLB regulars for years to come.  No one expects them to be superstars from day 1 but they are special and they will make an impact.  Without highjacking the thread, there are others in the farm that could have been included but thats for another day.

[LambchoP]

I would love it if any of these guys could come up and produce right away in '25, but I just don't see it. Rodriguez has only a handful of at bats in AAA and didn't look great. He had a good half season at AAA but that's a long ways from being ready. Keaschal and Raya haven't even played in AAA yet, except for the five innings Raya threw at the end of the year. Prelipp I think actually has a chance as a bullpen arm, but he's still going to need to pitch in AA at the very least and prove that he's healthy and can handle a full season. If anyone is going to come up and make an impact this year I'd say it might be Keirsey, Mccusker, or Eeles. Keaschal has a small chance, and he could be the first baseman we need if he can outhit Miranda. I'm still surprised we let Severino go with our need at first base still unfilled. It would make sense if we were going to sign someone like Alonzo, Walker or Goldschmidt, but that's not happening.

[jorgenswest]

A few thoughts on Keaschall…

I am not sure he will stick at 2B. He didn’t start as a shortstop like many second basemen. They have also played him in the outfield as well as 1B and 3B. Are they trying to find a fit. If he is to stick at 2B I think he needs a near full season in AAA.

It is encouraging that he is number 63 in the pipeline. That number 63 ranking is probably closer to a player ranked around 200 than a top 10 player. Go back 5-10 years of the pipeline and look at the other 63s.

2014 Zach Lee - 12 major league innings. Peaked in the ranking at #45

2015 Kevin Plawecki - 2.3 WAR across 8 major league seasons as a back up catcher.

2016 Victor Robles - 9.5 WAR across 8 major league seasons. Peaked in the rankings at #4 with thee season in top 10

2017 Dominic Smith - 0.9 WAR across 8 major league season. Peaked at #51.

2018 Heliot Ramos - 2.3 WAR in 2024 at 25 after two seasons of a combined -0.8 WAR. Four seasons on top 100 list.

2019 Griffin Canning - 4.7 WAR across 5 seasons.

Looking at the 12 players in the surrounding 62 and 64 ranks you will find a greater range with several not making it at all and three that are significant players. Trea Turner followed up his #62 ranking with an #11 the next year. Julio Urias followed up his 64 ranking with a #8 and #4. Mookie Betts followed up his #62 ranking to be #14 midseason tearing up AA and AAA and spent the last third of the season in the majors.

There is reason to be encouraged that Keaschall will contribute in the major leagues but it is going to take patience.  Will he take a step towards the top 10? Will he be a useful player across several major league season like Plawecki? Will he need to get to his last option like Ramos? It is very unlikely that he will be a significant major league player in 2024. There is the hope of Mookie Betts who needed just 464 more minor league PAs before hitting the majors and not looking back. Betts wasn’t coming off an injury in his previous season though.

I don’t see a game changing major league debut in 2025.

 

I used baseball reference WAR for convenience of quick access to peak ranks.

 

 

 

[Otaknam]

“ I could definitely see him an as a weapon in a multi-inning bullpen role, which I've always wondered if the Twins were grooming him for”. No team has as a goal to groom a top pitching prospect to be a middle innings reliever, especially when good starters are so difficult to find. The team has been VERY cautious  with Raya, for reasons they won’t explain. Likely they will continue to limit his innings while developing him physically to be a starter. If he pitches well in 2025 they could move him to a middle innings role. More likely they will let him start and put him on a pitch limit, making his starts essentially a bullpen game. As Raya gets stronger keep stretching him out as a starter. I could see him make his debut as a double header call up.

[ashbury]

I'm on the Prospect-Hoarder end of the spectrum, but I would not actually count on any of these players being major league contributors yet.  It's fine to have a plan for when they go beyond knocking on the door, and actually kick that door in through their performance at AAA - a plan as to who else to demote or who else to trade or who else to cut.  But none of them can be who you plan 2025 around.  That courts disaster, of 2024 ChiSox proportions.

Debuts in 2025?  Maybe some of them.  Game-changing?  That's wishful thinking.

[LastOnePicked]

Nothing on Earth would make me happier than for Connor Prielipp to prove me wrong and to make a splash in the big leagues. Nothing. Well, maybe world peace. But it's a close #2.