Minnesota Twins Arbitration Dilemma: 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff

[Matthew Lenz]

Alex Kirilloff was once one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but after a confounding 2024 season, he now finds himself as a possible budget- and roster-crunch casualty. Here's the case for and against keeping the former highly touted prospect.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Alex Kirilloff was the 15th overall selection in the 2016 MLB Draft, out of Plum High School in Pennsylvania. He reached the majors in 2020, becoming the third player ever to make his big-league debut in the postseason when he played right field in Game 2 of the American League Division Series against the Houston Astros. He went 1-for-4 in the game, and his future looked bright heading into the 2021 season. Since then, his career has been up and down, marred by various injuries that have really limited his availability. He's yet to exceed 88 games in any single season. 

Now, MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) projects him to get $1.8 million in his second of four possible arbitration years, meaning he still has three years of team control including the 2025 season. Should the Twins tender him a contract, or move on from the former top prospect? Let's look into both sides of the argument.

Why He Should Be Tendered
Despite a self-imposed salary ceiling and long-term uncertainty surrounding their television broadcasts, $1.8 million is fairly negligible for the Twins. Moreover, given his prospect pedigree, if he was tendered a contract and they later decided to move on, I think he'd draw some interest from other clubs, making him a movable asset. Heck, even Miguel Sanó got some run in 2024, despite his track record—although his power potential is a little different than that of Kirilloff.

But if we focus on the Twins’ needs, they are expected to lose Carlos Santana in free agency. Internally, José Miranda is the only other player on the active roster with first base experience and Yunior Severino is the only other possibility currently on the 40-man roster. One way or another, I don't expect the Twins to enter 2025 with Miranda as their full-time first basemen, especially considering his considerable struggles against left-handed pitching throughout his career.

Looking closer at Kirilloff’s production, he's shown signs of being a good hitter when healthy and will only be 27 when Opening Day arrives. He's tried to play through injuries so often that it's hard to know when he has and hasn't been at or near 100%, but in his limited action, he has eight months of above-average production, based on his wRC+. Overall, he's been a league-average hitter, slashing .248/.309/.412 with 27 home runs, 116 RBIs, 92 runs, and below-average walk and strikeout rates.

Typically, guys with draft and prospect pedigree like Kirilloff's are given a bit of a longer leash to prove they can stick in the Majors. Like it or not, the organization is invested in Kirilloff, so signs of an unexplored upside are taken more seriously from him than from lesser prospects or young players.

Why He Shouldn’t Be Tendered
I’m really concerned with his wrist, and more generally with his ability to stay on the field. He has not unable to finish three of the four seasons he's played, and has averaged under 63 games per season. Moreover, there was something… funny?… about his 2024 season, where he was optioned to Triple-A, never made an appearance after belatedly reporting an injury, and then was placed on the 10-day IL five days later—where he stayed for more than two months. Upon his return to the Saints lineup, he immediately got injured and didn't play for the rest of the season.

When we look at it from a roster construction standpoint, he doesn't fit well with Miranda in a platoon role, as both hitters have struggled significantly against left-handed pitching throughout their careers. Moreover, Alex Kirilloff has graded out to be an average defensive first baseman and a complete liability in the outfield. In other words, his greatest contributions are going to come at the plate where he's been slightly below average when available. Overall, we’re currently looking at a subpar first basemen who is expected to get a million-dollar raise in 2025.

What I Would Do
Disclaimer: I was a huge believer in Kirilloff and a super collector of his prospect and rookie cards. That said, prior to writing this article and digging into Kirilloff, I had made two (incorrect) assumptions:

1. He’s a very poor defender.
2. His wrist injuries have sapped his power output.

Neither of these things are true. Since his wrist injury, he's held a roughly average .153 ISO and really shined in 2023, as he was on pace for roughly 20 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a career-high .445 SLG—good for a wRC+ of 119. And, as highlighted above, he actually grades out to have an average glove in the field, with a 0.3 UZR/150 over his career.

Thus, I think the Twins have to tender him given his prospect pedigree and production when he's been healthy. Am I worried about the wrist and checkered medical chart? Yes. But he’s still a young player with three years of team control left, and in the grand scheme of things, a $1.8-million payday isn't going to be the reason the Twins aren't able to bolster their bullpen or add elsewhere. They have players who are projected to make a similar amount of money or more who I think are more reasonable non-tender candidates. I'm not opposed to moving on from him via trade, but I think the Twins would be making a mistake if they were to let him go for nothing.

---

What do you think? Should Kirilloff be tendered and kept, tendered and traded, or non-tendered?

 

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[Vanimal46]

“Moreover, there was something… funny?… about his 2024 season, where he was optioned to Triple-A, never made an appearance after belatedly reporting an injury, and then was placed on the 10-day IL five days later—where he stayed for more than two months. Upon his return to the Saints lineup, he immediately got injured and didn't play for the rest of the season.”

This right here is why he shouldn’t be tendered. It’s time to move on from these constantly injured former prospects. 

[DJL44]

The money doesn't matter. It's about the roster spot and roster fit. The Twins really need a RH hitting outfielder. Even with Kepler leaving they have plenty of LH hitting outfielders (Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey, Emmanuel Rodriguez). I can't see them cutting him loose for nothing but a trade would not be surprising.

[bean5302]

Kirilloff has a flatter, line drive swing like Joe Mauer or Trevor Larnach, not a loftier, fly ball swing which leads to home runs like Matt Wallner.

Kirilloff's power has not been sapped by wrist injury, it was never a thing to begin with. 
2016 - Rookie Ball ISO = .148
2017 - Tommy John surgery
2018 - A-Ball ISO = .274
2018 - A+ ISO = .188 
2019 - AA ISO = .131
2020 - N/A
2021 - MLB ISO = .172

If you look at Kirilloff's stops along the way, he only demonstrated plus game power in A-Ball back in 2018. Nowhere else did Kirilloff show plus power. This is similar to Trevor Larnach's junior year at Oregon after which the Twins drafted him or Joe Mauer's burst of power in 2009. The hype machine has always spun at 10,000rpm for Kirilloff.

I don't think there's any question Kirilloff gets non-tendered, and I don't think the Twins will pursue negotiating even a league minimum offer after non-tendering him. They might bring him back on a MiLB deal, but it's possible a team out there gives Kirilloff a 1yr league minimum.

[Doctor Gast]

Kiriloff has proven that when he's healthy he can really hit. His wrist is fine now after the surgery & after his surgery, there has been soft tissue injury tendency which is common. Commit to him at 1B finally & let him recuperate & develop there. IMO both Miranda & Kiriloff could benefit with more time at 1B.

$1.6- 1.8 is nothing for what he is capable to do. We'd get nothing for him & I hate to see another ex-Twins shining for another club. Baldelli, get over Kiriloff's error because he had a bad shoulder. When you forced so many players in '22 play hurt well beyond they should & what became detrimental.

[chpettit19]

I think there is very real talent with Kirilloff. But the injuries are piling up left and right. For me, it's not about whether or not he's worth 1.8 in a vacuum, but very much about how he fits into the roster as a whole. Wallner, Miranda, and Larnach have corner/DH spots over him right now because I trust them, to varying degrees, to be healthy more than I trust him to be. But am I trusting Yunior Severino to run with the 1B/DH job for league minimum more than I'm trusting Kirilloff for 1.8? No. Am I trusting Julien more than Kirilloff? I trust him to stay healthy more, but I don't trust his talent more. Do I trust 39 year old Carlos Santana more? I trust his glove more, but not his bat talent. But I trust him to stay healthy more. But do I want to pay him an extra 3 or 4 million more? Who are my other options? Is there another hole I can fill on the roster for that 1.8 or am I just saving the Pohlads (or a new owner) 1.8 mil?

Kirilloff is a complicated question because the roster is a complicated roster because you can't trust the 3 most important position players on the roster to stay healthy so how much can you invest in someone like Kirilloff who may be your 4th most talented hitter, but also is your 4th extreme injury risk? On a different roster it'd be an easier decision. On this roster I don't know what I'd do. I lean towards keeping him because I believe in the talent, but don't blame anyone who'd let him walk.

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Kiriloff has proven that when he's healthy he can really hit. His wrist is fine now after the surgery & after his surgery, there has been soft tissue injury tendency which is common. Commit to him at 1B finally & let him recuperate & develop there. IMO both Miranda & Kiriloff could benefit with more time at 1B.

Has he? In his four partial seasons he's only once had an OBP over .300. I think you'd have to really buy into his very ordinary 319 PA in 2023 and disregard his other poor 565 PA in his career to come to that conclusion.

Couple that with next to no power potential and him ONLY being able to play 1B and I see little upside with Kirilloff.

I'd look to see if he could be included as a 3rd or 4th piece in a trade before I non-tender him though.

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Kiriloff has proven that when he's healthy he can really hit. His wrist is fine now after the surgery & after his surgery, there has been soft tissue injury tendency which is common. Commit to him at 1B finally & let him recuperate & develop there. IMO both Miranda & Kiriloff could benefit with more time at 1B.

$1.6- 1.8 is nothing for what he is capable to do. We'd get nothing for him & I hate to see another ex-Twins shining for another club. Baldelli, get over Kiriloff's error because he had a bad shoulder. When you forced so many players in '22 play hurt well beyond they should & what became detrimental.

The Twins can easily capable of keeping Kirilloff at league minimum which saves them $1MM. A 1 week or even a 1 month hot streak is not the same as demonstrating a players expected performance.
5/25-6/10/14 - Danny Santana = 60 PA .396/.418/.547 OPS .965.
8/1-8/24/14 - Danny Santana = 113 PA .343/.384/.524 OPS .908.
You'll struggle to find a significantly better period for Alex Kirilloff. 

[jmlease1]

It's the toughest question for me. The payroll side of things shouldn't be an issue for a player likely to make less than $2M...but with the Twins self-imposed limitations, it is. The difference between carrying Kirilloff and not, could mean signing the LH reliever they need.

But the bigger issue is simply Kirilloff's inability to stay healthy. It's really hard to count on him as a player, and when he picks up a knock it's tended to show in his hitting.

2023 Kirilloff was actually pretty dang good as a hitter (less so defensively) and if we could get that version of him for 120 games, I'd be more enthusiastic. But it's so hard to know what we're going to get with him, and his struggles with LH pitchers limits him as well.

I think the answer is yes, tender him. I think there's still enough of an asset in there that we shouldn't let him go for nothing...but I can't argue too hard with the people who think it's just not worth it any longer and that he's a sunk cost at this point who is never going to be both healthy and successful enough to keep giving a roster spot to.

[TwinsDr2021]

"Since his wrist injury, he's held a roughly average .153 ISO and really shined in 2023, as he was on pace for roughly 20 home runs"

Not really sure you can say somebody is on pace for any number, when he had 263 PA against RHP, and only 56 against LHP.

People said the same about Wallner, but guess what when you aren't allowed to play against the same side pitcher, you pace is much lower than projecting your numbers to 162 games, because in no world can you play 162 games against the opposite side pitcher.

[Byrdman]

Tender him and keep him on the roster.  He can be really good if he can stay healthy.  Give him one last chance.  If it was me, Miranda would be the starting 1B/DH going forward and tell him to train every single day to get better at it.  If AK can stick around and stay healthy, great he can rotate with Miranda. 

[Linus]

I would tender him. I’m not over the moon about his chances but it’s like making a small call in poker so you can see the flop. I believe he has one option remaining so you don’t have to put him on the team right away. This gives a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Couple that with next to no power potential and him ONLY being able to play 1B and I see little upside with Kirilloff.

I think Kirilloff is a better fielder at LF than he is at 1B and he touches the ball a lot less often in LF. I wouldn't play him at 1B at all.

[jorgenswest]

Does he have an option left? I would much prefer Kirilloff on the 40 man at his arb salary than a short side platoon right handed batting veteran outfielder without options. You know that veteran will be on the roster all year no matter how they perform.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Has he? In his four partial seasons he's only once had an OBP over .300. I think you'd have to really buy into his very ordinary 319 PA in 2023 and disregard his other poor 565 PA in his career to come to that conclusion.

Couple that with next to no power potential and him ONLY being able to play 1B and I see little upside with Kirilloff.

I'd look to see if he could be included as a 3rd or 4th piece in a trade before I non-tender him though.

You highlighted my text- Kiriloff has proven that when he's healthy he can really hit. 

And then you text his #s when he's hurt. Just look at his #s last season, his #s were great until he got hurt. Then you see his #s plummet.

Yeah, it sucks that he's had wrist problems for years which affected his #s. He has fixed his wrist & now suffers from soft tissue issues which is to be expected & affects his overall #s. It's part of the process. Kiriloff should be at 1B until this time of recuperation is over. When he's back at 100% he could be moved around & his power should increase.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I tender him. I start him in MN. If he gets hurt, oh well. Next guy up (Miranda, Severino, Julien, Larnach?). But sure, that's a pittance and I roll the dice this time he's healthy. 

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You highlighted my text- Kiriloff has proven that when he's healthy he can really hit. 

And then you text his #s when he's hurt. Just look at his #s last season, his #s were great until he got hurt. Then you see his #s plummet.

Yeah, it sucks that he's had wrist problems for years which affected his #s. He has fixed his wrist & now suffers from soft tissue issues which is to be expected & affects his overall #s. It's part of the process. Kiriloff should be at 1B until this time of recuperation is over. When he's back at 100% he could be moved around & his power should increase.

 

What great numbers are you looking at?

And what are you considering 'great'? Keeping in mind this is a corner bat only.

And his power isn't going to increase if his swing plane continues to look like a table top.

[Schmoeman5]

49 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 

Yeah, it sucks that he's had wrist problems for years which affected his #s. He has fixed his wrist & now suffers from soft tissue issues which is to be expected & affects his overall #s. It's part of the process. Kiriloff should be at 1B until this time of recuperation is over. When he's back at 100% he could be moved around & his power should increase.

 

All year you have been saying this. He can get hurt just as easily playing 1st. In fact his shoulder injury happened when he dove for a line drive down the 1st base line at the end of the 23 season. The only way anyone gets back to 100% is by not playing at all. And even that's not a given. Lewis got hurt, ACL I believe while going to get on a plane. The Twins didn't sabotage Kirilloff's health by putting him in LF as you have often stated.

[Western SD Fan]

Kiriloff may come down to 40-man roster spots vs resigning him.  We should tender him a contract, if my memory serves me right, we have had similar conversations about Larnach vs Wallner, where to put Miranda, and prior to that we were having discussions about Rooker vs Larnach.  This is sometimes the problem when you draft the same type of player over and over again is that you get redundancies in the minors and when they finally graduate, there is no place to put them.  It is just the sad state of affairs when we have to worry about less than 1% of payroll because it may cost too much to keep.  With that being said, I'm not really passionate either way and no matter what is done, I'll probably support it as trying to better the team.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

You highlighted my text- Kiriloff has proven that when he's healthy he can really hit. 

And then you text his #s when he's hurt. Just look at his #s last season, his #s were great until he got hurt. Then you see his #s plummet.

Yeah, it sucks that he's had wrist problems for years which affected his #s. He has fixed his wrist & now suffers from soft tissue issues which is to be expected & affects his overall #s. It's part of the process. Kiriloff should be at 1B until this time of recuperation is over. When he's back at 100% he could be moved around & his power should increase.

 

See my comment above about Danny Santana. I'm firmly in the camp that Kirilloff is just SSS hot streak performance, not hurt/not hurt performance. As @nicksaviking asks, please provide the days/weeks  where Kirilloff was hurt/not hurt. Also, if you could, please provide the explanation on why didn't Kirilloff have plus power or almost ever take walks in the minors, and why that's different from him not having any plus power or ability to take walks at the MLB level.

Arguing (as you say now healed) a wrist injury is related to undiagnosable/treatable mystery back pain is just... I mean, come on... Not to mention every MLB player plays "hurt" through the course of their career or seasons. Luis Arraez just underwent thumb surgery from a torn ligament which had nagged him all year. He produced wRC+ 109 and double Kirilloff's career performance in WAR.

It'd be so much easier to accept Kirilloff being a ridiculously over-hyped prospect who isn't an above average hitter at the MLB level.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

Kiriloff may come down to 40-man roster spots vs resigning him. 

I believe this is the key.  To me, Kiriloff is the next guy to remove from the 40-man on the position player side of things.  We have too many players that are very similar and to me, he is the one that looks to be least likely to succeed.  It's not that he's not talented, but it's that he doesn't seem likely to be able to realize that talent at the major league level.  I think he looks like a 5% chance of success vs. 50% chance of complete failure vs. 45% chance of slogging along at the same level, which is also probably failure, plus we lose the opportunity to figure out some of the other players on the roster, like Julien and Miranda et al. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I believe this is the key.  To me, Kiriloff is the next guy to remove from the 40-man on the position player side of things.  We have too many players that are very similar and to me, he is the one that looks to be least likely to succeed.  It's not that he's not talented, but it's that he doesn't seem likely to be able to realize that talent at the major league level.  I think he looks like a 5% chance of success vs. 50% chance of complete failure vs. 45% chance of slogging along at the same level, which is also probably failure, plus we lose the opportunity to figure out some of the other players on the roster, like Julien and Miranda et al. 

I don't think there are 40 man issues this year at all......but I could be wrong on that. But, agreed, of the hitters, he's the one I'd least likely keep if they NEED a space. 

[chpettit19]

44 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I believe this is the key.  To me, Kiriloff is the next guy to remove from the 40-man on the position player side of things.  We have too many players that are very similar and to me, he is the one that looks to be least likely to succeed.  It's not that he's not talented, but it's that he doesn't seem likely to be able to realize that talent at the major league level.  I think he looks like a 5% chance of success vs. 50% chance of complete failure vs. 45% chance of slogging along at the same level, which is also probably failure, plus we lose the opportunity to figure out some of the other players on the roster, like Julien and Miranda et al. 

 

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't think there are 40 man issues this year at all......but I could be wrong on that. But, agreed, of the hitters, he's the one I'd least likely keep if they NEED a space. 

You guys would remove him before you removed Yunior Severino?

I don't see any 40-man issues at all. As far as I'm concerned Marco Raya is the only "must add" for the Rule 5. Kala'i Rosario is a reasonable enough add, too, I guess. So let's call it 2 adds. Fangraphs says the Twins currently have 41 guys on the 40 man. They're going to "lose" DeSclafani, Thielbar, Farmer, Santana, Kepler, and Margot. I think we all agree they're going to be pretty limited on funds to spend so it's going to be mostly trades and waiver claims or low priced adds. I agree with Mike that there's really no 40-man issues at all.

1 extra guy with 6 removals gets them to 5 open spots. They don't have 5 Rule 5 adds and I put Severino miles ahead of Kirilloff for removing from the 40-man. Do we really think there's 3-5ish waiver claim or low priced free agents we'd rather have than Kirilloff for 1.8 mil?

Edit: Vanimal corrected me and my 40-man numbers so scratch everything I just said other than I'll take Kirilloff over Severino.

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fangraphs says the Twins currently have 41 guys on the 40 man. They're going to "lose" DeSclafani, Thielbar, Farmer, Santana, Kepler, and Margot. I think we all agree they're going to be pretty limited on funds to spend so it's going to be mostly trades and waiver claims or low priced adds. I agree with Mike that there's really no 40-man issues at all.

FanGraphs isn’t including the 6 guys on the 60 day IL, so we are going to be at 47 once the WS ends. Our own @Tom Froemmingposted this offseason primer video 2 days ago. 

 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

FanGraphs isn’t including the 6 guys on the 60 day IL, so we are going to be at 47 once the WS ends. Our own @Tom Froemmingposted this offseason primer video 2 days ago. 

 

Well that changes things. Severino and Kirilloff join a few others on the chopping block then.

[tony&rodney]

The fact that Kirilloff is an easy add to the 40 person roster should tell all of us that the Twins need to complete some trades to add a couple of players. AK might be an add on in a trade.

If $1.8 million is too much to keep Kirilloff, the budget is really tight. It is much more likely that whatever occurred between Alex and Baldelli/Falvey last summer has already sealed his fate and he will not be back. Sometimes players need a change of scenery to find their way.

[Tom Froemming]

49 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

FanGraphs isn’t including the 6 guys on the 60 day IL, so we are going to be at 47 once the WS ends. Our own @Tom Froemmingposted this offseason primer video 2 days ago. 

 

It's at 47 at this very moment. There are four free agents, so that brings them down to 43. If you expect the options on Margot and Farmer to be declined (which seems likely), that brings them down to 41. But then they have guys to protect in the Rule 5 Draft (covered in that video) and, of course, outside additions. 

It's crowded. I hesitated to say there was a true roster crunch, but there are definitely going to be some guys removed from the 40 man at some point.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Tom Froemming said:

It's at 47 at this very moment. There are four free agents, so that brings them down to 43. If you expect the options on Margot and Farmer to be declined (which seems likely), that brings them down to 41. But then they have guys to protect in the Rule 5 Draft (covered in that video) and, of course, outside additions. 

It's crowded. I hesitated to say there was a true roster crunch, but there are definitely going to be some guys removed from the 40 man at some point.

Huh. I thought it was more open.... This changes my thoughts....

[weitz41]

If he has an option left, I'd bring him be back. I think the shady, no wait I'm hurt, may have saved his last option.  Besides that, 1.4(Sportrac) to 1.8 (MLBTR)mil isn't bringing in someone with more upside. I also don't see a real need for a 40-man spot. They will add Raya and maybe Rosario. Remember this rule 5 class is the 5 round 2020 draft. If I have my count right after free agents, possible DFA's I think we're at 36/40. Then there's trade candidates Paddack and Castro.

1.8 mil for Kirlloff or Jay Jackson? Which seems like I better use or higher upside of that $?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

 

You guys would remove him before you removed Yunior Severino?

I don't see any 40-man issues at all. As far as I'm concerned Marco Raya is the only "must add" for the Rule 5. Kala'i Rosario is a reasonable enough add, too, I guess. So let's call it 2 adds. Fangraphs says the Twins currently have 41 guys on the 40 man. They're going to "lose" DeSclafani, Thielbar, Farmer, Santana, Kepler, and Margot. I think we all agree they're going to be pretty limited on funds to spend so it's going to be mostly trades and waiver claims or low priced adds. I agree with Mike that there's really no 40-man issues at all.

1 extra guy with 6 removals gets them to 5 open spots. They don't have 5 Rule 5 adds and I put Severino miles ahead of Kirilloff for removing from the 40-man. Do we really think there's 3-5ish waiver claim or low priced free agents we'd rather have than Kirilloff for 1.8 mil?

Edit: Vanimal corrected me and my 40-man numbers so scratch everything I just said other than I'll take Kirilloff over Severino.

Actually I would.  I think the odds of Yunior Severino being a serviceable slugging type first baseman are probably only about 20%.  However, I think the odds of Kiriloff being a full-time productive player are less than that.  MAYBE Kiriloff IF HEALTHY ENOUGH TO PERFORM has a chance of being better than that, but at this point I'm just playing what I believe the percentages to be.  In reality I think first base will be covered by some combination of Julien and Miranda.  The defense won't be amazing, but I think that they will both eventually hit and be healthy enough to perform.  OR, I could be completely wrong!

In reference to your edit. . . even without the edit, I think that there are better options out there for the 40 man than Kiriloff (maybe some that we haven't traded for yet).  Having space certainly increases your flexibility for trades/rule 5 pickups/waiver claims/free agents (cheap ones), and I like that.