Minnesota Twins Arbitration Dilemma: 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Actually I would.  I think the odds of Yunior Severino being a serviceable slugging type first baseman are probably only about 20%.  However, I think the odds of Kiriloff being a full-time productive player are less than that.  MAYBE Kiriloff IF HEALTHY ENOUGH TO PERFORM has a chance of being better than that, but at this point I'm just playing what I believe the percentages to be.  In reality I think first base will be covered by some combination of Julien and Miranda.  The defense won't be amazing, but I think that they will both eventually hit and be healthy enough to perform.  OR, I could be completely wrong!

In reference to your edit. . . even without the edit, I think that there are better options out there for the 40 man than Kiriloff (maybe some that we haven't traded for yet).  Having space certainly increases your flexibility for trades/rule 5 pickups/waiver claims/free agents (cheap ones), and I like that. 

The people paid to do this for a living are completely wrong quite often so I'm pretty sure us internet folk are supposed to be wrong pretty frequently. But I'd say you're about 19.5% too high on Severino. For some context, Yunior had a wRC+ of 101 in his 2nd go round in AAA this year at the age of 24. Kirilloff's AAA quad slash is .362/.452/.667/1.119 compared to Severino's .249/.337/.450/.787. Obviously some context that needs to be put into that comparison as Kirilloff had some rehab assignments in there, but I'll be surprised if Severino survives the offseason on the 40-man. He's a no glove corner player who hasn't hit in AAA and is now in his mid-20s. Not exactly a hard player to find in the minors. 

With the new look at the 40-man, I think Kirilloff's tender/chances of making through the winter on the 40-man come down to how many "random" relievers the Twins care about carrying all winter. Those are the easiest guys to cut as there's always a cookie cutter replacement being waived the next day. I wouldn't bet one way or the other on Kirilloff. I have no strong feeling on what way they'll go.

[tony&rodney]

The 40 person has room. Blewett, Desclafani, Dobnak, Thielbar, Tonkin, Farmer, Santana, Helman, Margot, and Kepler all come off the roster. There are questions about Kirilloff, Keirsey Jr., Severino, Duarte, and Canterino to name others. That gives the Twins plenty of room. Of the names above, I may keep Canterino, Kirilloff, and Keirsey Jr., but that might not be what Falvey thinks. Kirilloff has likely suited up for the last time as a Twin, if I had to bet. However, I don't bet .... often.

[DocBauer]

He was a top prospect for a reason. We've seen glimpses of what he can, supposedly when healthy. I used to fight claims he was injury prone. The TJ surgery while a prospect isn't completely out of bounds. The wrist issue appears to be of a genetic disposition, and therefore, to me, not an injury. I accepted his shoulder injury diving for a ball and hurting himself while landing hard. But then he hurts his back, underplays it, and only reveals how bad it is when they were going to option him down.

I'm begining to think he's never going to be close to 100%

But even with a tight budget...and I'm hoping like hell that ownership tosses Falvey a $ bone on their way out...$1.8M for a guy who DOES have talent, and has an option remaining, i think you keep him.

I agree with an earlier post he might be a 3rd or 4th guy in a trade. He could be of interest to someone betting on a healthy turn around. 

But I only drop him...possibly try a MILB signing...if the 40 man gets tight and they need to protect someone else. As an example, let's say they really want to protect an arm like Nowlin, a LH pitcher with upside someone might want to stash in their pen. If it came down to AK or a talented arm like that, I'd keep the young arm.

[Vanimal46]

Most people are still viewing him like his prospect status in 2019, and not who 2024 Kirilloff is. He has an extensive injury history, including a significant surgery on his wrist just to save his baseball career. As noted in the article he’s played 63 games or less since 2021. What exactly is the upside here? It’s time to move on. 

[Whitey333]

Time to move on from Kiriloff.  He probably needs a change of scenery.  Besides we are already paying someone $15 million per year to only play part time and have been doing it for about 10 years now?

[Fezig]

Sign him, have him fight for his position. If he plays like the way he was projected to, and has shown flashes of, it will be a steal. If he doesn't pan out, someone will take a flyer on him in a trade. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't think there are 40 man issues this year at all......but I could be wrong on that. But, agreed, of the hitters, he's the one I'd least likely keep if they NEED a space. 

There’s 26 man issues. When Castro leads your team in plate appearances and your 3 best hitters each play fewer than 86 games, the backup quality degrades, and that was with a competent everyday first baseman.

i don’t see how the Twins can go into 2025 with Kiriloff on the 26 man. Not with all the other roster issues they’re facing.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Has he? In his four partial seasons he's only once had an OBP over .300. I think you'd have to really buy into his very ordinary 319 PA in 2023 and disregard his other poor 565 PA in his career to come to that conclusion.

Couple that with next to no power potential and him ONLY being able to play 1B and I see little upside with Kirilloff.

I'd look to see if he could be included as a 3rd or 4th piece in a trade before I non-tender him though.

Not really sure how a Club sees if a guy can be the 3rd or 4th piece in a trade with no real control of the player before hand? Why would the receiving team show any interest if there’s a real possibility that the player can be signed as a free agent?

2023 results equate to health - early 2024 results equate to health. His 2023 (about 60% of what is considered a full season) .270 BA with a .348 OBP & 116 OPS+ shows a potential norm, with health.

I’m not deluded though…..his health is not a very dependable prospect. If they want to trade him, I think they have to pay the arbitration. For the $$ amount, I’d probably pay him and bring him to Spring Training…….assuming his back or whatever the 2024 ailment was, is healed. Seems he would need to comply with some sort of physical.

[LambchoP]

I believe he does have an option left which is valuable. I've got to believe because of his draft pedigree, youngish age and years of control, he could be the second piece of a trade possibly. I like Miranda better,but don't think he should be our everyday first baseman. I am intrigued by Severino's power, but think he'll strike out too much. We need a first baseman in free agency, if we're going to try and compete this year 

[David Maro]

It is time to move on and make a trade of AK.With a tight payroll this team needs players that play.His history is more time on the IL.They had to go out and sign Santana because of the unknown with AK.He also never did show he could play 1B at a major league level.This team already has 3 star players who will miss a good portion of the season next year because of their history.

[Jeff K]

On 10/29/2024 at 11:54 AM, chpettit19 said:

I think there is very real talent with Kirilloff. But the injuries are piling up left and right. For me, it's not about whether or not he's worth 1.8 in a vacuum, but very much about how he fits into the roster as a whole. Wallner, Miranda, and Larnach have corner/DH spots over him right now because I trust them, to varying degrees, to be healthy more than I trust him to be. But am I trusting Yunior Severino to run with the 1B/DH job for league minimum more than I'm trusting Kirilloff for 1.8? No. Am I trusting Julien more than Kirilloff? I trust him to stay healthy more, but I don't trust his talent more. Do I trust 39 year old Carlos Santana more? I trust his glove more, but not his bat talent. But I trust him to stay healthy more. But do I want to pay him an extra 3 or 4 million more? Who are my other options? Is there another hole I can fill on the roster for that 1.8 or am I just saving the Pohlads (or a new owner) 1.8 mil?

Kirilloff is a complicated question because the roster is a complicated roster because you can't trust the 3 most important position players on the roster to stay healthy so how much can you invest in someone like Kirilloff who may be your 4th most talented hitter, but also is your 4th extreme injury risk? On a different roster it'd be an easier decision. On this roster I don't know what I'd do. I lean towards keeping him because I believe in the talent, but don't blame anyone who'd let him walk.

To me, this is the perfect summary around Kirilloff.  To keep, or not, is based on the other roster moves that the Twins make & how they feel about him from last season referencing his failure to disclose his injury.  I'd probably keep him and would be very willing to include in a trade.

[The Great Hambino]

To non-tender AK, I think at least one of these things would need to be true:

1. There is a reliable in-house plan at 1B.  Miranda? Larnach? Julien? Lewis?  Severino?  All potential options, but none are reliable or would require significant offseason work to be considered reliable.  Unless Santana or a similar free agent is brought in before the tender deadline (which I don't expect to happen), then I don't think this is true.

2. The space is needed on the 40-man before Rule 5 guys need to be added.  Others here know better than me on this subject, but the consensus seems to be that there's plenty of space on the 40-man as is.  I don't think this is true.

3. There's no value to be squeezed from AK as a trade piece.  The Twins aren't the only franchise that thinks they can fix someone else's broken toys at a discount.  I don't think this is true.

4. The cost breaks the budget.  Even with the Twins financially tying one arm behind their own backs, $1.8MM doesn't sink the budget.  If they had to eat it all by moving on from him later, would that be ideal?  No.  Would it be cost prohibitive?  Also no.  So, I don't think this is true.

 

So, I think he should be tendered an offer since there's no pressing reason not to at this time.  This doesn't mean that they shouldn't be open to pivoting if things change, or that he should be part of the primary plan at first.  But he's still a pretty cheap piece with some maneuverability.  If they do lock down a plan at first that doesn't involve him, he can be traded.  Even if they can't find a trade for him, his option allows for him to be stashed in the IL (either Injured List or International League) if/when a body is needed at first/DH

 

 

[Mahoning]

They'd be better off keeping Santana, but, yes, they should give Kiriloff one more chance. With either him or Miranda at first, though, it's a big step down. 

[nicksaviking]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

He was a top prospect for a reason. We've seen glimpses of what he can, supposedly when healthy. I used to fight claims he was injury prone. The TJ surgery while a prospect isn't completely out of bounds. The wrist issue appears to be of a genetic disposition, and therefore, to me, not an injury. I accepted his shoulder injury diving for a ball and hurting himself while landing hard. But then he hurts his back, underplays it, and only reveals how bad it is when they were going to option him down.

I'm begining to think he's never going to be close to 100%

But even with a tight budget...and I'm hoping like hell that ownership tosses Falvey a $ bone on their way out...$1.8M for a guy who DOES have talent, and has an option remaining, i think you keep him.

I agree with an earlier post he might be a 3rd or 4th guy in a trade. He could be of interest to someone betting on a healthy turn around. 

But I only drop him...possibly try a MILB signing...if the 40 man gets tight and they need to protect someone else. As an example, let's say they really want to protect an arm like Nowlin, a LH pitcher with upside someone might want to stash in their pen. If it came down to AK or a talented arm like that, I'd keep the young arm.

I agree with your post, but the first sentence is what always gets me about these discussions. When it comes to player development, I think draft position needs to be dropped from consideration about two years into their minor league career. At that point, they need to be evaluated on production and attributes that indicate future capabilities. When it comes to prospect ranking, I think that consideration needs to be dropped after year two in the majors. Again, they should mostly be evaluated on their production and attributes that indicate future capabilities. And honestly, I think fans are better about this than front offices. And it's not a Twins thing, it's a leaguewide reluctance to cash out the initial investment.

I'm long past caring about Kirilloff's draft position and prospect rankings. I'm not saying drop him for some waiver wire veteran, but I've seen enough to move on.

[gman]

Sometimes the simplest solutions are the best. Kirilloff was placed on the 60 day disabled list on July 30. If we would have stayed on the sixty day list he would have been out for the remainder of the year. Ultimately he stayed on the 60 day disabled list. He was on the 10 day disabled list from June 13 until July 30 when he was transferred to the 60. The listed reason for going on the 10 day list was back issues. Its not inconceivable that while ramping up for a rehab assignment he re-injured his back.

 

[KirbyDome89]

16 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Most people are still viewing him like his prospect status in 2019, and not who 2024 Kirilloff is. He has an extensive injury history, including a significant surgery on his wrist just to save his baseball career. As noted in the article he’s played 63 games or less since 2021. What exactly is the upside here? It’s time to move on. 

What's the upside with any fringe 40 man player that will occupy that spot? That's the comp here. Kirilloff is essentially the 2025 version of Jay Jackson except he has an option remaining.  

[Vanimal46]

49 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What's the upside with any fringe 40 man player that will occupy that spot? That's the comp here. Kirilloff is essentially the 2025 version of Jay Jackson except he has an option remaining.  

The hope is that new fringe player can play a position of need… we have LH hitting corner OF with questionable defense handled quite well. 

[PatPfund]

Non tender him. Loved who he was, but there is zero evidence the radical surgery fixed his wrists, and circumstantial evidence it did not (flashes talent in a hot start, numbers tail off and become pretty dreadful; just the pattern you'd expect with a joint injury). His ups and downs look a lot like Buxton's before he finally got his knee fixed, but the problem with Alex is the bone-shortening thing was supposed to be a last resort, so there isn't a 'next up surgery'.

And in these times, the $1.8 million DOES matter. You could make a strong argument that the Twins lost the post-season last year by spending on smaller contracts like Staumont, Jackson, and Margot, then not having enough cash to sign a late value like Michael Lorenzen (who pitched well for Texas, was flipped for assets, then pitched down the stretch for playoff bound KC). In a tight budget, so-called bargains for useless players are in effect a self-imposed further budget cut. Let Alex go, and offer him a minor league deal if you think he has something left. I believe his outside value is pretty close to zero, especially if you lock him to a salary he is unlikely to earn.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I believe he does have an option left which is valuable. I've got to believe because of his draft pedigree, youngish age and years of control, he could be the second piece of a trade possibly. I like Miranda better,but don't think he should be our everyday first baseman. I am intrigued by Severino's power, but think he'll strike out too much. We need a first baseman in free agency, if we're going to try and compete this year 

I don’t believe he does have an option. It looks like he was optioned ‘22, ‘23 & ‘24

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I don’t believe he does have an option. It looks like he was optioned ‘22, ‘23 & ‘24

AK has one option remaining.

Does it matter though? Maybe. My guess is that there has already been a divorce.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Wow. Twins just announced Kirilloff is retiring from baseball.

Can't blame him, but man, hope he is ok ongoing.

[nicksaviking]

Extremely sad news. Tough break for the young man as I'd guess this is related to his inability to stay healthy. 

[Brett]

Count me shocked as well. His health may be worse than any of us know.

i wish him well in the next chapter.

[tony&rodney]

Not really surprised by this announcement. Alex looked very unhappy whenever he played, except for when he did something like hit a home run. Contrast that with someone smiling and laughing in the dugout and generally trying to keep ahead of the mental part of the game.

Baseball is a very difficult sport to play and dealing with failure is more common in baseball than it is in most things in life. Kirilloff made some money, he is set. Now he needs to just get on with whatever he want to do, living and working where he chooses.

[Twinsgypsy]

They do not have to worry anymore with him deciding to retire because of all the injuries.  I feel sad that a person with so much natural potential has had to retire because of all the injuries he has had to deal with in such a short period career.  I wish the best for you Alex.  I totally understand your decision to retire because of the back injury you have. 40 plus year ago I suffered a serious back injury where I broke my L2 -L4 vertebrae.  I have had two surgical steel rods in my for 40 years and have been very lucky to have had no serious side ailments from it.   I wish you luck with wherever life takes on your journey.   Thank you for time being a Twin.