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Alex Kirilloff was the 15th overall selection in the 2016 MLB Draft, out of Plum High School in Pennsylvania. He reached the majors in 2020, becoming the third player ever to make his big-league debut in the postseason when he played right field in Game 2 of the American League Division Series against the Houston Astros. He went 1-for-4 in the game, and his future looked bright heading into the 2021 season. Since then, his career has been up and down, marred by various injuries that have really limited his availability. He's yet to exceed 88 games in any single season.
Now, MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) projects him to get $1.8 million in his second of four possible arbitration years, meaning he still has three years of team control including the 2025 season. Should the Twins tender him a contract, or move on from the former top prospect? Let's look into both sides of the argument.
Why He Should Be Tendered
Despite a self-imposed salary ceiling and long-term uncertainty surrounding their television broadcasts, $1.8 million is fairly negligible for the Twins. Moreover, given his prospect pedigree, if he was tendered a contract and they later decided to move on, I think he'd draw some interest from other clubs, making him a movable asset. Heck, even Miguel Sanó got some run in 2024, despite his track record—although his power potential is a little different than that of Kirilloff.
But if we focus on the Twins’ needs, they are expected to lose Carlos Santana in free agency. Internally, José Miranda is the only other player on the active roster with first base experience and Yunior Severino is the only other possibility currently on the 40-man roster. One way or another, I don't expect the Twins to enter 2025 with Miranda as their full-time first basemen, especially considering his considerable struggles against left-handed pitching throughout his career.
Looking closer at Kirilloff’s production, he's shown signs of being a good hitter when healthy and will only be 27 when Opening Day arrives. He's tried to play through injuries so often that it's hard to know when he has and hasn't been at or near 100%, but in his limited action, he has eight months of above-average production, based on his wRC+. Overall, he's been a league-average hitter, slashing .248/.309/.412 with 27 home runs, 116 RBIs, 92 runs, and below-average walk and strikeout rates.
Typically, guys with draft and prospect pedigree like Kirilloff's are given a bit of a longer leash to prove they can stick in the Majors. Like it or not, the organization is invested in Kirilloff, so signs of an unexplored upside are taken more seriously from him than from lesser prospects or young players.
Why He Shouldn’t Be Tendered
I’m really concerned with his wrist, and more generally with his ability to stay on the field. He has not unable to finish three of the four seasons he's played, and has averaged under 63 games per season. Moreover, there was something… funny?… about his 2024 season, where he was optioned to Triple-A, never made an appearance after belatedly reporting an injury, and then was placed on the 10-day IL five days later—where he stayed for more than two months. Upon his return to the Saints lineup, he immediately got injured and didn't play for the rest of the season.
When we look at it from a roster construction standpoint, he doesn't fit well with Miranda in a platoon role, as both hitters have struggled significantly against left-handed pitching throughout their careers. Moreover, Alex Kirilloff has graded out to be an average defensive first baseman and a complete liability in the outfield. In other words, his greatest contributions are going to come at the plate where he's been slightly below average when available. Overall, we’re currently looking at a subpar first basemen who is expected to get a million-dollar raise in 2025.
What I Would Do
Disclaimer: I was a huge believer in Kirilloff and a super collector of his prospect and rookie cards. That said, prior to writing this article and digging into Kirilloff, I had made two (incorrect) assumptions:
- He’s a very poor defender.
- His wrist injuries have sapped his power output.
Neither of these things are true. Since his wrist injury, he's held a roughly average .153 ISO and really shined in 2023, as he was on pace for roughly 20 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a career-high .445 SLG—good for a wRC+ of 119. And, as highlighted above, he actually grades out to have an average glove in the field, with a 0.3 UZR/150 over his career.
Thus, I think the Twins have to tender him given his prospect pedigree and production when he's been healthy. Am I worried about the wrist and checkered medical chart? Yes. But he’s still a young player with three years of team control left, and in the grand scheme of things, a $1.8-million payday isn't going to be the reason the Twins aren't able to bolster their bullpen or add elsewhere. They have players who are projected to make a similar amount of money or more who I think are more reasonable non-tender candidates. I'm not opposed to moving on from him via trade, but I think the Twins would be making a mistake if they were to let him go for nothing.
What do you think? Should Kirilloff be tendered and kept, tendered and traded, or non-tendered?
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