How Encouraged Should We Be By Austin Martin's Rookie Season?

[Cody Pirkl]

The former top-5 pick didn’t make much of an impact during his rookie season, but it was a solid debut. If his ceiling came down a bit, maybe we also saw his floor rise.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Austin Martin’s stats may not jump off the page, but the versatile rookie's returns were acceptable. He showed signs that while he may not be a future superstar, there’s a path for him to earn a role moving forward.

A .670 OPS in 2024 leaves much to be desired, but in a down offensive year league-wide, this number came in just 6% below the league average. Martin showed much of what we expected, based on his minor-league career. His on-base skills were sufficient, but he showed little to no power.

One fear regarding Martin’s profile on his way up to the MLB level was his ability to punish hittable pitches. This lack of power and reliance on walks has led many hitters with similar profiles to get the bat knocked out of their hands by fastballs. While Martin didn’t crush heaters, his numbers against them were solid. He also held his own against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, which didn’t leave any apparent holes for pitchers to exploit. Unlike many of his teammates, he's a multi-gear hitter. 

Martin showed his raw athleticism with seven stolen bases, which carries much more weight given the lack of speed elsewhere on the Twins roster. His ability to make plays on the bases will afford him at least a bit more opportunity on the MLB roster in the coming years, regardless of how his bat develops.

Of course, Martin's biggest question moving forward will be his defense. The Twins likely played around too long by keeping Martin at shortstop throughout most of his minor league career when all indications were that they knew he was not an MLB-caliber shortstop. Even at second base, he was nothing more than an emergency option.

Upon Martin’s deployment in the outfield, it became apparent that he had little experience or comfort there, either. Despite his athleticism, his debut on the grass was rough. His defense was a big reason he was a net negative for the team in measurements like FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement. He was worth -13 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield, as despite his physical ability to cover ground, we often saw poor reads and routes to fly balls. 

With so much time the team can count on needing to fill in center field every season, even Martin’s rookie season offensive production would make him a staple on the roster with average defense in center. Martin looked very much like an infielder thrust into outfield action, and hopefully, with continued reps and experience, significant improvements can be made. The raw ability is obvious.

It’s easy for Martin’s rookie season to get lost in the shuffle, due to the up-and-down nature of his time on the team, but there are reasons to be encouraged. Putting up near-league-average production as a rookie isn’t a given, regardless of the player’s pedigree. Look no further than fellow rookie Brooks Lee, who posted a punchless .585 OPS during his rookie season. While Martin never stuck on the roster for an extended period and was disappointing defensively, he has a straightforward path to being a catalytic role player on the 2025 roster.

The hope is that Martin has done enough to keep the Twins from bringing in a 2025 version of Manuel Margot, after (hopefully) figuring out that Martin could have filled that role better. His ability to be optioned will continue to make him somewhat expandable, but given the payroll restraints, he may be the first to get a crack at this job next season.

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Martin didn't quite impress, but he showed plenty of reason to hope for more from him in the coming years. Is there hope for Austin Martin to fill a platoon role in 2025? Can he earn an even more significant role? Let us know below!

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[RpR]

"While Martin never stuck on the roster for an extended period and was disappointing defensively, he has a straightforward path to being a catalytic role player on the 2025 roster."

Sounds more like another Gordon.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Hard to say.  I'm not convinced yet, but he has certainly earned another chance to show us more.  He definitely gets the award for best use of eye-black, hands down.

[mikelink45]

Right now he is a PR - I am not impressed and looking at the next set of prospects I do not see holding on to him.

[stringer bell]

Martin would be a lot more intriguing if he was a plus fielder. I actually believe he could be a good left fielder or second baseman. His less than strong arm really limits his defensive value.

I like the speed (second best on the team) and the contact, but he has to be better at getting on base. His production has to improve as well as his defense or he won’t get beyond “bench player”. 

[Linus]

So let’s see - we have a below average hitter with no power. We have a well below average fielder with a poor arm. He has speed but makes mistakes on the base paths. So to answer the question I’m not encouraged by his rookie season. Doesn’t mean I’m going to give up on him but if I’m running the team he would start in St Paul with a chance to earn his way up to the bigs. To me he looks like a guy that is going to have to improve quite a bit to even be a fourth outfielder. 

[KirbyDome89]

The poor defense was mildly surprising. The rest is pretty much in line with what you'd expect given his production in the minors the last few seasons. If the Twins are serious about winning, they can't hand him the backup role in CF to start the year. Even if he becomes an average OF, Idk if his bat will ever be good enough to justify the amount of innings he'd get given the way this organization shuffles lineups. 

[BH67]

I did a doubletake of the headline to make sure I saw the "c-o-u" in "Encouraged."

[HerbieFan]

It didn't seem like the organization had him prepared at all to play in the outfield.  I think he's best suited (his ceiling?) as a 4th outfielder who can play CF and LF/pinch runner

[bean5302]

Seeing some rose tinted coke bottles used as glasses here.

Martin was literally -0.2 fWAR. That's not solid. That's not encouraging. That's DFA -> outright off the 40 man levels of performance sooner than later. I think we've seen what Martin is capable of at AAA, and his absolute ceiling is probably in that 1 WAR class.

Martin's approach at the plate and his swing is never going to generate much power, and against MLB pitchers, he's going to take limited walks while striking out a fair margin. It all adds up to an MLB average bat ceiling. Unfortunately, as has been the case at almost every level and position as Martin was coming up, his defensive instincts were weak again with the Twins. He's just so raw for being a guy who was in AA back in 2021.

[Vanimal46]

“The hope is that Martin has done enough to keep the Twins from bringing in a 2025 version of Manuel Margot”

Well that’s not going to happen. Relying on Martin to be the primary RH hitting OF without any backup plan is a disaster waiting to happen. 

[Blyleven2011]

Not giving up on Martin  , he can improve  if he works hard , 253 batting average  isn't bad from a rookie  ( we had alot more batters alot worse on this team  ) , I think he can hit  better and get more walks as he gets more experience and settles in against major league pitching  , he looked like he had some jitters his first year as the game was too fast at times for him  , they need to utilize  his speed more , no power but if he cant hit for a higher average or walk more often and use his speed when he does get on base , he just might be a good lead off hitter to spark the team  ( one can only hope ) ...

Defense was below average in the outfield but it has been stated he played shortstop in the minors and he is learning the outfield on the fly in mlb  , not fair to scrutinize his defense yet , give the kid the chance to adjust to the outfield , I take 3 years to evaluate a player  ...

Like jeffers  ,,, jeffers is not going to be the consistent hitter the FO  thought he might turn out to be , he has flashes and streaks  but not consistency for 162 game season as catcher and DH , his defense isn't all that great either  , I see more passed balls by jeffers , that are really called wild pitches ...

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Not giving up on Martin...
...I think he can hit  better and get more walks as he gets more experience and settles in against major league pitching...

...Defense was below average in the outfield but it has been stated he played shortstop in the minors...

What makes you think Martin has ceiling above what he showed?
2022 AA = .241/.367/.315 OPS .683 ISO .074, wRC+ 89
2023 AAA = .263/.386/.405 OPS .791, ISO .141, wRC+ 106
2024 MLB = .253/.318/.352 OPS .670, ISO .099, wRC+ 94
His barrel rate was 1.1% and ranked #362 of 365 players with 200+ PA last year bottom 1%.
His hard hit rate of 33.0% was #283, bottom quartile.
His 87.2mph average exit velocity ranked #274, which was also bottom quartile.
His 108.8mph maximum exit velocity ranked #271, which was also bottom quartile suggesting he tapped into all he had from a raw power standpoint.
He's basically Luis Arraez, but Martin's contact rates are much worse so he strikes out 5x more than Arraez, and the result is a major cap on Martin's potential.

Defensively, Martin has played a fair amount of OF. His most common position at Vanderbilt was outfield in 2018, shifting to primary 3B in 2019, and returning to the outfield as a primary position in 2020. He's played 200 professional games in the outfield since his drafting. It's not exactly new. While there is certainly some room for growth defensively, he was outright bad in the outfield. It'd be a major coup d'etat to see Martin just become average defensively because of his good, but not great speed and weak arm. He'll never be average in CF as he's severely stretched to cover it based on his good for a regular MLB player, but poor speed for a CF. He's similar to Matt Wallner, but without the arm.

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, Linus said:

if I’m running the team he would start in St Paul with a chance to earn his way up to the bigs.

I agree with that strategy. He needs to play every day and not sit on the bench or bounce around the field as some sort of last resort backup. Stick him at one position, let him earn the promotion, and then bring him back up to the big leagues and see if he's the real thing or not. But as someone else suggested, he may end up in Nick Gordon territory. 

[Doctor Gast]

Martin was thrown into an impossible situation, where he was stuck at SS in the MiLB. Then in the MLB thrown raw into CF on a steady basis, because he was much better than Margot & be an utility player which demands a lot of experience at varies positions where he basically had none because he had been stuck at SS during his time in the MiLB. Plus because of Margot, the RH hitter was commanded to have a steady diet of RHPs (that many veterans are not expected to do) & expect him to perform like a seasoned veteran that has been playing CF & UTIL his entire career facing only LHPs. THIS IS NOT HOW YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO EASE YOUR ROOKIES INTO THE MLB!

Martin isn't a seasoned CF vet, so don't don't put him in that standard. He's the rawest form of a rookie you can get, that is the standard you need to have. Did Martin make a lot of mistakes being a raw rookie that he was? Yes, he did. Don't blame Martin because he's raw, blame the Twins! Did Martin also make a few great plays? Yes, he did. Martin is a very athletic player who can be the spark plug the Twins desperately need. He's an OB machine that can raze havoc on the base paths & shake up pitchers if the Twins put him in situations where he can do so.

The Twins put too much time into trying to make Martin into someone he wasn't, While not capitalizing on who he is, who can be a great asset to this team. The Twins have beaten down Martin where many rookies or veterans matter of fact don't get back up. But because of Martin's spunkiness, he'll get right back up. Obtaining Margot was a huge mistake & greatly hindered Martin's progress but now w/o Margot, Martin can thrive & show us who he really is. DON"T GIVE UP ON HIM!

[rv78]

8 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

“The hope is that Martin has done enough to keep the Twins from bringing in a 2025 version of Manuel Margot”

Well that’s not going to happen. Relying on Martin to be the primary RH hitting OF without any backup plan is a disaster waiting to happen. 

Relying on Margot WAS a disaster. Let's try something different, like giving these young players the time it takes to prove themselves....... unless we are going to treat all of them like Brent Rooker.

[NYCTK]

Hoping a 25 year old suddenly figures out how to play defense is a great way to waste time. 

Austin Martin is a bad player and will never be worthy of a major league role. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Don't blame Martin because he's raw, blame the Twins!

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Obtaining Margot was a huge mistake & greatly hindered Martin's progress

If players want to get big league playing time, they need to be good enough to earn it. No scholarships based on draft status. The Twins are trying to win baseball games. They don't exist solely to help develop Austin Martin to his fullest potential.

[farmerguychris]

I'm hopeful they can develop him to replace Castro either this, or next year - depending on how much salary they are looking to slash.  The rookie version of Castro with Detroit wasn't any good either and look at him now.

[LambchoP]

I think the Twins should tell him he's an outfielder now. Start the season in AAA and play everyday in left and center field. If he can improve his defense with more innings played, it would be a huge step towards earning that very important fourth outfielder job. Offensively, we know he has limited power, so they shouldn't have him swinging for the fences. Try to have him for the Arraez mold. Hit for singles and doubles, and then use his speed to steal bases. If he could hit .250+ and start stealing bases at a good clip while playing avg to above avg defense, he should be at least a good 4rth outfielder until Rosario and Rodriguez are ready to play out there.

[laloesch]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Martin was thrown into an impossible situation, where he was stuck at SS in the MiLB. Then in the MLB thrown raw into CF on a steady basis, because he was much better than Margot & be an utility player which demands a lot of experience at varies positions where he basically had none because he had been stuck at SS during his time in the MiLB. Plus because of Margot, the RH hitter was commanded to have a steady diet of RHPs (that many veterans are not expected to do) & expect him to perform like a seasoned veteran that has been playing CF & UTIL his entire career facing only LHPs. THIS IS NOT HOW YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO EASE YOUR ROOKIES INTO THE MLB!

Martin isn't a seasoned CF vet, so don't don't put him in that standard. He's the rawest form of a rookie you can get, that is the standard you need to have. Did Martin make a lot of mistakes being a raw rookie that he was? Yes, he did. Don't blame Martin because he's raw, blame the Twins! Did Martin also make a few great plays? Yes, he did. Martin is a very athletic player who can be the spark plug the Twins desperately need. He's an OB machine that can raze havoc on the base paths & shake up pitchers if the Twins put him in situations where he can do so.

The Twins put too much time into trying to make Martin into someone he wasn't, While not capitalizing on who he is, who can be a great asset to this team. The Twins have beaten down Martin where many rookies or veterans matter of fact don't get back up. But because of Martin's spunkiness, he'll get right back up. Obtaining Margot was a huge mistake & greatly hindered Martin's progress but now w/o Margot, Martin can thrive & show us who he really is. DON"T GIVE UP ON HIM!

Well to be fair to the Twins he's an atrocious outfielder and they knew it when they signed him hence why they tried him at different positions.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If players want to get big league playing time, they need to be good enough to earn it. No scholarships based on draft status. The Twins are trying to win baseball games. They don't exist solely to help develop Austin Martin to his fullest potential.

You totally missed my point. I was totally against Martin playing so much time in the MLB at CF, I was totally against the Twins pitting him primarily against RHPs, But the Twins needed a whipping boy & Martin was it. Martin was ready for the MLB but not the way he was abused. If Julien was thrust in the OF (not even CF) because he had played some in the MiLB & bat mainly against LHPs because we needed him to do that in his rookie season, would that be any different? Wouldn't he absolutely bomb? What I'm saying is if the Twins had handled Martin as they handled Margot or Julien we wouldn't be having this discussion but we'd be hailing Martin as a great athlete that helped us get into the playoffs.

The Twins don't exist solely to help Martin develop to his fullest potential. They are there to help every player to their fullest potential. IMO they have failed at this & especially Martin they have so far hindered him.

CLE has progressed because they gave their young players a chance to progress, Not getting worthless veterans & sign inferior FAs.

[Doctor Gast]

10 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Well to be fair to the Twins he's an atrocious outfielder and they knew it when they signed him hence why they tried him at different positions.

You lost me. which atrocious OF did they sign? Margot was not signed & they were disillusioned that he was great. Martin was drafted as an INF.

[Doctor Gast]

49 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I'm hopeful they can develop him to replace Castro either this, or next year - depending on how much salary they are looking to slash.  The rookie version of Castro with Detroit wasn't any good either and look at him now.

I'm hopeful too but Castro had a lot more experience in the other positions prior. So far we have only Correa & Lee at SS if Castro is moved. When Correa & Lee get injured where'd we be? Castro's competent flexibility & durability is what made him Twins' MVP. Martin will become a very good utility player & might even be better at some things than Castro but overall he can't come close to replacing Castro any time soon IMO.

[laloesch]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You lost me. which atrocious OF did they sign? Margot was not signed & they were disillusioned that he was great. Martin was drafted as an INF.

My mistake.  I got distracted when I typed the previous reply.  In college he played six different positions at times and the Bluejays drafted him as an Infielder although I've heard he had quite a bit of experience in the outfielder for the Commodores.  With the Twins when he DID play the outfield he as atrocious, how's that? 😉

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was totally against Martin playing so much time in the MLB at CF, I was totally against the Twins pitting him primarily against RHPs, But the Twins needed a whipping boy & Martin was it.

The Twins don't have a vendetta against Austin Martin. Buxton was hurt. They thought that Martin wasn't better than Margot at playing CF and hitting LHP (they were correct, he isn't better at either of those things). The only opening then was to give Martin the job playing CF and hitting against RHP. With hindsight that job should have gone to Keirsey and Martin should have stayed in AAA (Keirsey may have also been injured at that time and unavailable, I can't remember).

If Martin can't hit RHP or play CF then he probably isn't going to make it as a major league baseball player. He doesn't hit or defend well enough to be a platoon LF against LHP. Most rosters don't have enough room for that kind of player anyway. That's why Mike Restovich never did much in MLB.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins don't exist solely to help Martin develop to his fullest potential. They are there to help every player to their fullest potential. 

No, they exist to win baseball games. Player development is crucial because they can't afford to fill the team with free agents. If a player is "stunted" in their development because they aren't a better option than a veteran retread then they stay in AAA.

[Jeff K]

I think Martin is marginal for mlb.  I am also tired of the Twins putting players in positions that they have no experience playing.  It's a rare player who is plug and play at multiple positions.  While the idea looks great on paper, the reality is mediocre fielding (sometimes worse) and confused players whose hitting might be harmed by the lack of stability.  The Twins have true center fielders in the minors.  Bring one of them up to support Buxton.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Martin will by my guess get every opportunity in 2025 to contribute at the ML level. It appears that payroll is very tight so probably not another Margot acquisition happening. But with that said he will need to improve beyond below average player very quickly with Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keashell and even Gabriel Rodriguez all getting closer to MLB. If he doesn't he will be behind 8 or 9 guys in the OF pecking order. I hope he makes good. 

[NYCTK]

20 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I think Martin is marginal for mlb.  I am also tired of the Twins putting players in positions that they have no experience playing.  It's a rare player who is plug and play at multiple positions.  While the idea looks great on paper, the reality is mediocre fielding (sometimes worse) and confused players whose hitting might be harmed by the lack of stability.  The Twins have true center fielders in the minors.  Bring one of them up to support Buxton.

You don't get the luxury of a stable job as a marginal mlb player. That's part of the deal. You play well enough, that's when you get a set position, not before. 

Austin is just not good enough of a player to leave at one position and hope he becomes playable.