How Encouraged Should We Be By Austin Martin's Rookie Season?

[Doctor Gast]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins don't have a vendetta against Austin Martin. Buxton was hurt. They thought that Martin wasn't better than Margot at playing CF and hitting LHP (they were correct, he isn't better at either of those things). The only opening then was to give Martin the job playing CF and hitting against RHP. With hindsight that job should have gone to Keirsey and Martin should have stayed in AAA (Keirsey may have also been injured at that time and unavailable, I can't remember).

If Martin can't hit RHP or play CF then he probably isn't going to make it as a major league baseball player. He doesn't hit or defend well enough to be a platoon LF against LHP. Most rosters don't have enough room for that kind of player anyway. That's why Mike Restovich never did much in MLB.

I never said that they had a vendetta against Martin but because he never became the player they wanted he never became their darling & didn't care how they used him.

I agree that Keirsey should have come up at the beginning, I've said that from the beginning. The reason that he didn't was that Margot held the 40 man roster spot that should have gone to him. 

Castro is a great utility player but when he'd play SS or CF over an extended time he started to slip both offensively & defensively. Because he had some tough times, is he a terrible player? No. Martin was also asked to play over his head. Does that make him a terrible player? No. That fact that Martin was asked to hit against RHPs is a tribute that he can hit RHPs better than most. And athleticism is the reason why the Twins put him in that situation & that eventually become very good at it. He has the spunk to be & excel as a MLBer.

 

For b

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Martin was thrown into an impossible situation, where he was stuck at SS in the MiLB...

That is misleading no matter how much bold or all caps shouting you use.

First of all, Martin wanted to play SS. Falvey actually sat down with him in the 2021-2022 offseason and talked about it. Martin was likely to be given the opening day SS duty for 2022 with Kyle Farmer brought in as a failsafe before the Twins stunned MLB by signing Carlos Correa. Btw, Martin hasn't played a single game at SS in two years. While the Twins might have deployed Martin at SS in 2023, a sprained UCL made the hard throws required from the far side of the infield dangerous, and that pretty much ended Martins career at SS. Once Martin returned from "rest and rehab" on his UCL, the Twins deployed him at 2B and OF.

Second, Martin has pretty much always played a significant number of games in the outfield, all the way back into college. 
college
2018 - 1B 18 games, LF 15 games, CF 13 games, 3B 9 games, Catcher 4 games, SS 2 games
2019 - 3B 51 games, 2B 13 games, 1B 4 games
2020 - CF 12 games, 3B 4 games
--------------------------------------------
pro
2021 - CF 46 games, SS 43 games, 
2022 - SS 84 games, CF 19 games, 2B 7 games, LF 1 game, RF 1 game
2023 - 2B 39 games, LF 14 games, CF 12 games, SS 0 games
 

[chpettit19]

I know some people aren't going to like this comment, but the moment Martin couldn't learn to pull the ball with authority his major league career was in real trouble. It's what the Blue Jays hoped he could do when they drafted him and it's what the Twins hoped he could do when they traded for him. There was real hope in him being a more athletic Bo Bichette (offensively) if he could do it. He couldn't. Now he's a AAAA player.

This idea that the Twins bounced him around to a bunch of positions he'd never played before and that ruining him is just people having no idea who Austin Martin is, or what his career has been. Above average defensive players don't play 22 games at 1B (injury related, to be fair), 13 at 2B, 64 at 3B, 25 in CF, 15 in LF, and 2 at SS in college. Austin Martin was a utility player in college. He just happened to be able to absolutely rake against college pitching so it didn't matter. Then Toronto played him 46 games in CF and 43 at SS after drafting him before MN started playing him at SS almost exclusively. MN actually gave him the most consistent playing time at 1 position, and it was a massive mistake that held him back. They stuck him at SS most of his first full year with the club and that was the mistake. They should've had him bouncing between 2B, LF, and CF back then instead of having him locked in at SS for so much of his playing time.

Austin Martin hasn't been good enough defensively since college (and he likely never will be) and once it became clear he'd never have any sort of power he likely wasn't going to be good enough offensively. I was stoked when they got him in the Berrios trade. I thought he'd learn to pull the ball with authority early in counts and be able to use his natural right field approach late in counts to be a .280+ hitter with 15 HR power. It's not going to happen. And, despite some people's beliefs, it's really, really hard to take walks in MLB when you're not a power threat in any way, shape, or form. And if you can't impact the ball well you have to hit it at nearly a perfect launch angle every time to be effective (see Arraez, Luis). And that's really hard to do. How encouraged should they be? Not very. And that makes me very sad. I was very excited for him. But the odds are not in his favor.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

Well to be fair to the Twins he's an atrocious outfielder and they knew it when they signed him hence why they tried him at different positions.

Please stop just making stuff up.

1. Martin wasn't signed by the Twins. He was acquired with Simeon Woods Richardson in the trade of Jose Berrios. At the time, Martin was universally accepted as a top prospect. In fact, he ranked as a top 50 overall prospect in MLB.
2. Scouts were divided on whether Martin would wind up at 2B or CF long term. He was not considered a bad outfielder by anybody.
3. The Twins pushed Martin at SS hoping his athleticism would make up for the shaky arm there because SS is a super premium defensive position which maximizes player value.
4. The Twins play all of their prospects at multiple positions as part of the team's commitment to positional flexibility. Martin was permanently moved off SS because of a sprained UCL.

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Martin was also asked to play over his head. Does that make him a terrible player? No.

The fact that Martin can't do anything better than anyone else on the roster makes him a terrible player (relatively speaking these guys are all elite athletes). Martin isn't good enough at baseball at the moment to hold a 40-man roster spot. There are too many other guys who hit as well as him and play better defense, hit better than him and play the same defense or both hit and field better than Martin. The guy was outplayed by Manny Margot and Margot will be lucky to get a major league contract this offseason.

[rv78]

Martin can't play defense anywhere according to most posters here. He has NO power. That's bad according to most of you. In 2024 he hit .253. That's tied with Kepler for 6th on the team for those that had 200 at bats or more. That's better than Jeffers, Santana, Julien, Margot, Castro, Lewis, Vasquez, and Farmer. I'd say he did just fine for a rookie getting his first taste of the majors.

[Doctor Gast]

32 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, they exist to win baseball games. Player development is crucial because they can't afford to fill the team with free agents. If a player is "stunted" in their development because they aren't a better option than a veteran retread then they stay in AAA.

I was posting this as you quoted me. "CLE has progressed because they gave their young players a chance to progress, Not getting worthless veterans & signing inferior FAs." As I stated before protected Margot took the place that Martin should have had. Martin was much better than Margot (as you yourself stated). If Martin was allowed to play where he should have played (given to Margot) & Keirsey played where Martin played & Keirsey was better suited for. Everything would have flowed. But FO hung up on their darling Margot (more than winning) was the big reason why we played so poorly, nothing flowed.

Martin wasn't stunted he was hindered, there's a big difference. Martin's difficult path with mixed outcomes & Julien's easy path with good outcomes as rookies. Right now if I had a choice who'd I like to keep between Julien & Martin, I'd keep Martin because #1 because of Julien +hype his trade value is much higher whereas Martin's   -hype is much lower. #2 Martin is a much better athletic fielder, base runner, and better hitter because since the league has taken his HR advantage away from him & IMO he'll have difficulty reinventing himself & won't hit many HRs after that. I'm sorry you don't have the vision to see that Martin has a lot of potential.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Martin was much better than Margot (as you yourself stated).

No, that's the exact opposite of what I stated.

I'll propose a counter-narrative. The scouts watched Austin Martin on the back fields in spring training and said, "This guy's not going to help, go tell the Dodgers we'll take Manny Margot."

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Martin can't play defense anywhere according to most posters here. He has NO power. That's bad according to most of you. In 2024 he hit .253. That's tied with Kepler for 6th on the team for those that had 200 at bats or more. That's better than Jeffers, Santana, Julien, Margot, Castro, Lewis, Vasquez, and Farmer. I'd say he did just fine for a rookie getting his first taste of the majors.

And that's mainly facing RHPs, How would  (RH) Margot fare against mainly RHPs? Or Julien mainly against LHPs? How would rookie Martin fare if he had the same opportunity to face mainly opposite-handed pitchers as even most veterans do? Much better. Let's be fair here.

Edited October 24, 2024 by Doctor Gast

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

And that's mainly facing RHPs, 

Everyone faces mainly RHPs.

[Fred]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Seeing some rose tinted coke bottles used as glasses here.

Martin was literally -0.2 fWAR. That's not solid. That's not encouraging. That's DFA -> outright off the 40 man levels of performance sooner than later. I think we've seen what Martin is capable of at AAA, and his absolute ceiling is probably in that 1 WAR class.

Martin's approach at the plate and his swing is never going to generate much power, and against MLB pitchers, he's going to take limited walks while striking out a fair margin. It all adds up to an MLB average bat ceiling. Unfortunately, as has been the case at almost every level and position as Martin was coming up, his defensive instincts were weak again with the Twins. He's just so raw for being a guy who was in AA back in 2021.

Sigh! I was excited to see him in the bigs with his high OBP. I kept thinking leadoff hitter to set the table for the Wallners, Larnachs, etc. But a .318 OBP isn't going to cut it. I think one more year is all he should get before the FO looks elsewhere. Jake Cave soured me on the 4 or 5 chances.

[Doctor Gast]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, that's the exact opposite of what I stated.

So now you mean that Margot was better than Martin. So why was Martin played more at CF? Why did Martin hit better even under harsher conditions?

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

So now you mean that Margot was better than Martin. So why was Martin played more at CF? Why did Martin hit better even under harsher conditions?

They were both terrible and neither should be opening day major leaguers. 

[Doctor Gast]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Everyone faces mainly RHPs.

Martin 177 PAs- (RHPs)  80 ABs (LHPs)     Margot  172 PAs- (RHPs)  171 PAs- (LHPs)     Farmer 124 PAs- (RHPs)  118 PA- (LHPs)

Margot & Farmer, before Wallner & Julien were sent down to AAA, Kiriloff was injured & later Kepler. had many more PAs facing LHPs than RHPs. But after they were obligated to face more RHPs.

Although in the end your statement became true. Not all were proportional equal.

[USAFChief]

Martin is extremely unlikely to ever have much value in the big leagues. He has no defensive value, and isn't never going to have an impact bat.

He can and probably will be a part time bench player for a few years because he'll be cheap and roughly equivalent to a couple hundred similar guys floating around the margins of pro ball. 

Not the type of player who actually drives any kind of long term success.

Just another example of why "top 50 overall prospect" is way overrated by many fans.

 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

That is misleading no matter how much bold or all caps shouting you use.

First of all, Martin wanted to play SS. Falvey actually sat down with him in the 2021-2022 offseason and talked about it. Martin was likely to be given the opening day SS duty for 2022 with Kyle Farmer brought in as a failsafe before the Twins stunned MLB by signing Carlos Correa. Btw, Martin hasn't played a single game at SS in two years. While the Twins might have deployed Martin at SS in 2023, a sprained UCL made the hard throws required from the far side of the infield dangerous, and that pretty much ended Martins career at SS. Once Martin returned from "rest and rehab" on his UCL, the Twins deployed him at 2B and OF.

Second, Martin has pretty much always played a significant number of games in the outfield, all the way back into college. 
college
2018 - 1B 18 games, LF 15 games, CF 13 games, 3B 9 games, Catcher 4 games, SS 2 games
2019 - 3B 51 games, 2B 13 games, 1B 4 games
2020 - CF 12 games, 3B 4 games
--------------------------------------------
pro
2021 - CF 46 games, SS 43 games, 
2022 - SS 84 games, CF 19 games, 2B 7 games, LF 1 game, RF 1 game
2023 - 2B 39 games, LF 14 games, CF 12 games, SS 0 games
 

You are right Mr. Bean & I'm wrong. The 1st full year with MN it seemed that he played ever game at SS which wasn't true. '23 at AAA he played a lot of 2B & some OF he didn't look too bad in the OF but he needed some work.

[umterp23]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Martin can't play defense anywhere according to most posters here. He has NO power. That's bad according to most of you. In 2024 he hit .253. That's tied with Kepler for 6th on the team for those that had 200 at bats or more. That's better than Jeffers, Santana, Julien, Margot, Castro, Lewis, Vasquez, and Farmer. I'd say he did just fine for a rookie getting his first taste of the majors.

Batting avg only for a comparison doesn't tell the picture of the type of player he is.  He has no power, not that I am a believer that every single guy on the team has to hit 20+ HR's to be part of the team.  Let's look at Avg. OBP, SLG & OPS for measurable.  The only players he out performed were Vazquez, Julien, Margot and Farmer across all 4 stats for the player you singled out for just avg comparison.  He doesn't have a strong arm defensively.  Pretty decent speed but only had 20 XB hits total, so once again, doesn't hit ball hard enough to take advantage of speed.

Martin on most every other team in MLB would still be in AAA but Twins rolled the dice and he played in 93 games.  That is more because of injuries once again to Buxton and others.

[Major League Ready]

He probably gets a shot the first couple months of the season for 2 reasons.  1) He had a wRC+ of 110 after the deadline last year.  He has a grand total of 257 ML PAs so it's not too hard to believe he could improve upon that post deadline batting line.  That would be worthy of a bench role especially if he can improve his defense.  2) Rodriquez is probably not far off.   A third might be this team is so lacking in speed.   

[DocBauer]

Going to start by saying I'm not here to BASH Martin in any way, nor am I giving up on him as a useful ballplayer. He was a rookie for goodness sake! 

To the OP's question: "How encouraged should we be by Austin Martin's rookie season?" I'd answer "mildly encouraged". Again, he was a rookie. And rookies often hit speed bumps. He didn't stink, he showed a little speed, he hit a little bit, and kept his OB% above .300.

But a few points:

1] I believe the Twins did him no favors by keeping him at SS as long as they did. I understand why they did so: if you have any chance to play in the dirt...3B/2B...might as well play some SS to learn more of the subtleties of playing in the dirt. But once it became obvious he was never going to be able to play there at all, barring emergency, he should have been moved earlier.

2] I wish once and for all...not JUST relating to Martin...we could BURY this imaginary nuance of MILB players ONLY being shuffled to different positions as being a Twins centric idea. It's NOT the Twins simply embracing "position less baseball". EVERY MILB team moves it's players around the field. It's been done this way forever. Only a few players ONLY play a single primary position, either because it's all they can...think 1B and CATCHER...or because they're a special talent, TOP prospect at a premium position.

Prospects play different positions to see if they CAN so that they might fit needs at the ML level someday, and because other prospects need opportunities to play as well, and because MILB teams also have a limited roster, just like ML teams, and need to fill a lineup, and they want everyone to see playing time to develop. While Martin was probably left too long at SS, we need to stop this mantra about the Twins moving prospects around. It's just part of being on a MILB team, AND evaluating the future of a prospect.

3] To my knowledge, NOBODY ever proclaimed Martin had 20-30 HR power locked in his body ready to explode. As it stands today, Martin would seem to have similar "power" to Luis Arraez, just for reference sake. The stats aren't hard to look up. Some doubles power, little HR power. But Arraez is a very special BAT who does things very, very few players are capable of. Nothing Martin has done so far indicates he's even close to being a "special" hitter post college. If you are ZERO threat for XB pop/power, ML pitchers will eat you alive at some point unless you have amazing bat to ball skills to go along with a great eye. I'd really like to believe Martin HAS THE ABILITY to find a little more pop/power to spray the ball down the line, in to the gaps, and hit more doubles, leg out a few triples, crank the occasional HR, but at LEAST give a ML pitcher pause. To Martin's credit, he did have 20 XB hits in 233 official AB. Not bad for a rookie.

4] Reports spread around was that he was a "natural" OF who could transition there easily. That's not what I saw at all. I did see a handful of plays in CF and LF where he made some great catches. From my perspective, it seemed like he was much better with balls moving away from him vs balls hit directly at him. That's a big problem for an OF, especially one playing CF, as I saw WAY too many false steps that lead to hits and XB hits. That's a problem! He was average at best at 2B, with a few great plays with scoops in the hole to get the out at 1B. As of NOW, his glove isn't worthy of a utility player, especially with limited offense. 

CONCLUSION: Once again, he was only a rookie feeling his way. But he doesn't have any defensive value at the moment, and a very limited offensive profile at the moment. Honestly, TODAY, I'd have more faith in guys like Keirsey, Helman and maybe surprise prospect Eeles to actually HIT, run, pop a little, and play good defense.

That DOESN'T mean he can't work hard this offseason, and in ST, to refine his defense and bat to be a quality reserve player. But he'd better do so, because I see other prospects hot on his tail that seem to be better options fairly soon.

FINAL NOTE: FWIW, I don't like having a prospect up and not letting them play. (Camargo, Keirsey, Helman as examples). But for those who want to complain about Martin's usage against certain pitching sides, he actually hit better, and had a better SLG % against RH arms in 2024 than LH arms. I don't know if that's consistent with his college or MILB career, but the numbers are there.

[stringer bell]

19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Martin is extremely unlikely to ever have much value in the big leagues. He has no defensive value, and isn't never going to have an impact bat.

He can and probably will be a part time bench player for a few years because he'll be cheap and roughly equivalent to a couple hundred similar guys floating around the margins of pro ball. 

Not the type of player who actually drives any kind of long term success.

Just another example of why "top 50 overall prospect" is way overrated by many fans.

 

I pretty much agree with this. Martin didn't reach base nearly enough to compensate for his lack of power and poor defense. I would also state that the fan in me is hoping for a jump in quality contact to the point that Martin can be a positive offensive player. It is a long shot that a player can enhance his skills that much at 26 years of age. 

[Linus]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I pretty much agree with this. Martin didn't reach base nearly enough to compensate for his lack of power and poor defense. I would also state that the fan in me is hoping for a jump in quality contact to the point that Martin can be a positive offensive player. It is a long shot that a player can enhance his skills that much at 26 years of age. 

Pretty much this. As long as pitchers don’t fear him he is never going to walk that much. If he could hit some doubles and become passable in LF / CF he might be a bench player. Even if he starts in St Paul I’m sure he will get a chance due to injuries but if I recall he wasn’t lighting it up AAA either. At the time of the trade I was disappointed because I really dislike players that don’t have at least one position where they are above average.  Otherwise they really have to hit to be a contributor. The Twins seem to collect guys like this like coffee mugs. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Pretty much this. As long as pitchers don’t fear him he is never going to walk that much. If he could hit some doubles and become passable in LF / CF he might be a bench player. Even if he starts in St Paul I’m sure he will get a chance due to injuries but if I recall he wasn’t lighting it up AAA either. At the time of the trade I was disappointed because I really dislike players that don’t have at least one position where they are above average.  Otherwise they really have to hit to be a contributor. The Twins seem to collect guys like this like coffee mugs. 

Martin had good numbers at St. Paul, fueled by free passes. Also he did hit quite a few doubles, but don’t disagree with you about what Martin showed in 2024. 

[Jeff K]

On 10/24/2024 at 12:35 PM, NYCTK said:

You don't get the luxury of a stable job as a marginal mlb player. That's part of the deal. You play well enough, that's when you get a set position, not before. 

Austin is just not good enough of a player to leave at one position and hope he becomes playable. 

I'm not against plug and play guys.  My take is the Twins rely far too often on mixing and matching.  

[mickster]

On 10/23/2024 at 10:16 PM, Vanimal46 said:

“The hope is that Martin has done enough to keep the Twins from bringing in a 2025 version of Manuel Margot”

Well that’s not going to happen. Relying on Martin to be the primary RH hitting OF without any backup plan is a disaster waiting to happen. 

a good option to have at AAA - but nothing more

 

[twinstalker]

Did the title say en-couraged?