Why is Twins Rookie Brooks Lee Struggling So Badly?

[Jamie Cameron]

Entering the 2024 season, Brooks Lee was a consensus global top-35 prospect. He's been poor offensively in his limited playing time in the big leagues, though. What's at the heart of his struggles at the plate?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports (photo of Brooks Lee)

It hasn’t been a smooth rookie season for Brooks Lee. A highly-ranked prospect entering 2024, Lee caught the eye in Spring Training, to the tune of a .963 OPS. Shortly after being assigned to minor-league camp, though, Lee was shut down in late March with what was described as back spasms. Those turned out to be a herniated disc that required two months of rehab, with Lee eventually starting a Complex League rehab assignment in late May. 

Lee debuted with the Twins on Jul. 4, before cranking a two-run home run against the Astros on Jul. 6. In early August, The Athletic reported Lee was dealing with shoulder soreness that ultimately resulted in an IL stint starting on Aug. 9, due to bicep tendonitis. Lee completed a brief rehab stint in St Paul, before returning to MLB action in early September.

Lee has largely struggled during his inaugural big-league campaign. Through Wednesday, he’s hitting .222/.267/.319, with 7 extra-base hits in 37 MLB games. Why include such a tedious overview of Lee’s health challenges to open this piece? Because I don’t want to preclude the possibility that Lee is playing hurt, is incredibly worn down, or both. Any conjecture on his current physical condition on my part would be irresponsible speculation, so let’s focus on the data behind some of Lee’s 2024 struggles. What is going on under the hood here?

Coming into 2024, it was clear Lee had challenges with his right-handed swing. Indeed, it was reported widely earlier this season that Lee had worked feverishly throughout the offseason to correct his poor output as a right-handed hitter in MiLB in 2023. So what has been the fruit of his labor? He’s crushed as a right-handed hitter in Triple-A in 2024. At the major-league level, it’s all been a struggle, with a slightly better performance from the right side.

The dark humor shouldn’t be lost here. Lee worked extensively on his swing against left-handed pitching, which he’s seen in 48 MLB plate appearances, and now looks destitute against right-handed pitching (98 plate appearances). Can you go back to what you were doing in 2023, Brooks?

What about those swings, though? Are they tangibly different in how they are impacting the baseball? Thanks to Baseball Savant’s impeccable timing, we can now answer that question.

A quick primer on Statcast’s relatively new swing metrics: This season, Baseball Savant made swing data public. Here’s some important nuggets before we discuss Brooks Lee. A ‘fast swing’ is defined as a swing at 75 mph or greater. In the first month of the 2024 season, ~25% of swings were classified as ‘fast’. In very general terms, players who swing ‘fast’ more frequently outproduce those who don’t.

Swing length is another metric we’ll use here. Simply, this measures in feet, the distance from the start of the swing to the point the bat impacts the baseball. Again, generally, longer swings produce more power, and often more miss. An average MLB swing is 7.3 feet. So, how do Brooks Lee’s swings plug into all this new fancy mumbo jumbo?

Well, it might not surprise you to learn that Brooks Lee’s swings are shortish (6.9 feet on average) and slow (69.1 mph average). What might surprise you more is how different they are from each other. Lee’s left-handed swing (the one lauded throughout his career) is the slower of the two (68.7 mph vs 69.9 mph on average). Only 2.7% of Lee’s left-handed swings meet the ‘fast swing’ threshold of 75 mph+, compared to 8.6% of his right-handed swings. Lee’s left-handed swing is also a little shorter (6.8 feet vs 7.0 feet). 

It came as a surprise to me that Lee’s erstwhile stronger side per scouting reports (left-handed) is the slower, shorter swing currently. My question is whether there’s a mechanical issue with his swing from the left-side currently, whether technical or injury-related. It’s also worth noting that Lee’s bat speed is significantly below average. That’s not a death knell by any means, but it’s a challenge he has to navigate with a strong approach at the plate.

So, what are some of Lee’s outputs that might be impacted by his swings? It’s worth noting here that Lee hasn’t been particularly good from the left or the right side in his limited MLB playing time, but the right-handed swing is the one currently set up to produce consistently better outcomes.

	Avg Swing Speed	Avg Swing Length	90th Percentile EV	LA	Hit95+%	OPS
As LHH	68.7 mph	6.8 feet	99.8 mph	11.8	23%	.562
As RHH	69.9 mph	7.0 feet	102.4 mph	14.2	30.6%	.618

Any player’s swing metrics are an important piece of the puzzle, but not the only one. It’s important to dig into other data, as our notion of what Lee is as a hitter (currently) is belied by some other intriguing numbers.

What of Lee’s approach, though? Lee talked prior to Wednesday’s series finale against the Angles about how his approach had been ‘in the dumps’. How is this reflection born out, or not, in his data?

Well, he’s right. Lee chases, and I mean a ton. He’s currently chasing at a 34.3% clip, that’s ~15th percentile in MLB and way higher than average (28.3%). Lee chases, and it’s important to note how and where he chases. It’s everywhere. As you can see from the figure below, Lee chases to all compass points, giving pitchers a significant margin for error in devising a plan of attack to induce non-competitive swings.

Additionally, Lee has become a more aggressive swinger, in general. He swung at 47.2% of pitches in July, 54.5% in August, and is up to 57.1% thus far in September. His in-zone swing percentage has fluctuated around its average for the season and he hasn’t seen improved outcomes from swinging more, making me question whether it’s part of a proactive approach, or he’s pressing at the plate.

It’s tough to tie all of this in a bow. Lee has battled through a long season, he’s had two injuries that have impacted and interrupted his playing time. There’s certainly a strong enough minor-league track record to not be overly concerned, long-term. If Lee is going to become a consistent, high-quality MLB regular, he’ll need to improve his swing decisions to raise the lower ceilings his swings currently offer.

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[DJL44]

Hitting is hard, switch hitting is harder. It should be expected that Brooks Lee will take some time to figure out big league pitchers. Right now he's switch hitting and covering 3 different infield positions. That spreads his practice time pretty thin.

[bean5302]

Lee's been vulnerable to low pitches, and he hasn't much all that well except meatballs.

[MMMordabito]

Looks like he's trying too hard to be Kyle Farmer.

Be yourself, Brooks!

[gman]

"Rookie" is the key word in title. 146 plate appearances at big league level. Enough said.

[chaderic20]

9 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Looks like he's trying too hard to be Kyle Farmer.

Be yourself, Brooks!

Perhaps if they captioned their pictures they'd realize they put a picture of the wrong person at the top of the article.

[RpR]

Lee is not what TD rookie lovers think he is, or want him to be; Lee is what he is with what ever talent God gave him.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Some rookies come up  hot as a lit match an smolder out fairly quickly; other rookies come up looking like a smoldering fire dying and suddeny erupt hot.

 

[CRF]

If the article is about Lee...why is the picture showing Farmer? 

 

Edit: I see the pic is correct now. 

[RpR]

1 minute ago, CRF said:

If the article is about Lee...why is the picture showing Farmer? 

THings get curiouser and curiouser.

[specialiststeve]

Umm.. because he is a rookie. 

Folks that have played understand that every "jump" is an adjustment. Jr. high to HS.. HS to college or pros if you are that gifted. Then every level has an increase in talent... thus "most" struggle a bit as they adjust. The biggest jump of all is from AAA to the show as .... the best pitchers of the AAA teams are most likely # 5 starter (at best!) in talent at that point. 

So facing pitchers at the highest level is just plain hard and make even the best prospect have a "learning curve". You can see he has game ... he will be fine. Be patient. 

[BH67]

20 minutes ago, gman said:

"Rookie" is the key word in title. 146 plate appearances at big league level. Enough said.

I'm imagining the computer analysis of 1951 New York Giant fan blogs of how Willie Mays could start 1-for-26 after having a 1.300 OPS only two weeks earlier for the Millers. The angst would be overwhelming!

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lee's been vulnerable to low pitches, and he hasn't much all that well except meatballs.

That chart needs to be split by handedness.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Hitting is hard, switch hitting is harder. It should be expected that Brooks Lee will take some time to figure out big league pitchers. Right now he's switch hitting and covering 3 different infield positions. That spreads his practice time pretty thin.

He's a rookie and not ready yet, but here because of injury

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

Umm.. because he is a rookie. 

Folks that have played understand that every "jump" is an adjustment. Jr. high to HS.. HS to college or pros if you are that gifted. Then every level has an increase in talent... thus "most" struggle a bit as they adjust. The biggest jump of all is from AAA to the show as .... the best pitchers of the AAA teams are most likely # 5 starter (at best!) in talent at that point. 

So facing pitchers at the highest level is just plain hard and make even the best prospect have a "learning curve". You can see he has game ... he will be fine. Be patient. 

He has been in pro ball just a little over 2 years. He has made great strides to get to this place. Like you said Steve MLB pitching is the greatest obstacle. Besides just learning to be a MLBer he's doing that at a premium position, switch-hitting (which is 2X as much work) & dealing with injuries. He has that presence & the help from a wise father, he'll be just fine. I'm not worried, I hope no one else is. BTW we absolutely need him at SS until Correa is 100% which most likely won't not be this year

[bean5302]

42 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That chart needs to be split by handedness.

Ask and you shall receive. Btw, low and inside or low and outside are the most common locations for Lee regardless of whether or not he's batting lefty or righty.

As a RHB, his whiff rate low and outside is 82%, and his swing rate is 42%.
As a LHB, his whiff rate is 45% low and outside, but his swing rate is 29-37%

Keep the ball low and out of the zone and Lee is helpless.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Weird article in the sense that other players were written about and given a built-in excuse - they were tired or running on fumes. Yet, the rookie is 'struggling badly'. I don't think he's struggling all that much when you consider he's a rookie who was playing injured for a period of time - and when he came back, the entire line-up and team were scuffling - very easy for young players to get caught in the wash.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

As a RHB, his whiff rate low and outside is 82%, and his swing rate is 42%.
As a LHB, his whiff rate is 45% low and outside, but his swing rate is 29-37%

Keep the ball low and out of the zone and Lee is helpless.

That can be fixed. Sounds like the problem is pitch selection, not mechanics.

[Fatbat]

Small sample size. He is gong on a heater  in sept/oct.  People need to calm down 🤣

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, mickster said:

He's a rookie and not ready yet, but here because of injury

Lots of truth here.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That can be fixed. Sounds like the problem is pitch selection, not mechanics.

Sure, totally possible he addresses the problem through a mechanical change, but it's also a sign he's not identifying pitches well. Also something which might be addressed with experience.

Not being able to hit pitches he's swinging at a lot is why he's struggling. pitchers know where Lee is struggling, and they're going to continue to target low inside/low away until Lee either proves he can lay off them or start hitting them.

[Wizard11]

I think he has a side bet with Miranda on who can chase the most out of zone pitches in September.  Looks to be a tight one

[darin617]

When Brooks Lee came up he was hitting the ball all around the field. Then it seems like the Twins decided that Lee should be swinging for the fences and then he went into his slump. 

Not every hitter is a power hitter. You can't hit a 3 run homer without base runners. Let Lee go back to what he was and watch him get back into a groove.

[purplesoldier4u]

No excuses. Play like a champion.

[Shs_2]

Brooks Lee is the least of our worries...

He hasn't played this many games in one year in his career yet....

Buxton looked lost at AAA and now gets moved up to the show anyway

Yeash

 

Btw, for the love of God will someone , anyone, get Brooks Lee a helmet that actually fits the man's head

[Seth Stohs]

1.) Because Baseball is Hard.

2.) They rushed him. Out of necessity, but he missed just over two months, and he didn't get a ton of time in St. Paul before he came up the first time.  Same with this time off the IL.

3.) MLB Pitchers are good. 

[Mike Sixel]

According to what I read online, most baseball experts think the cut in minor league ball led to less AAAA pitchers being kept, which means AAA hitters don't face pitching that is good as what previous AAA hitters faced. That's why so many rookies are struggling when they get to the majors. They just aren't facing anything like the pitching they used to. . True or not, that's the theory. 

[ryan189]

because he is a rookie and it's hard and he only had like 250 atbats in AAA before they rushed him up

[ryan189]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

According to what I read online, most baseball experts think the cut in minor league ball led to less AAAA pitchers being kept, which means AAA hitters don't face pitching that is good as what previous AAA hitters faced. That's why so many rookies are struggling when they get to the majors. They just aren't facing anything like the pitching they used to. . True or not, that's the theory. 

if they have less AAA pitchers wouldn't they just cut loose the lower end pitchers and actually make it harder

[Doctor Wu]

Well, he was a high draft pick, and much hyped as a "natural" hitter, and he was doing fairly well in his brief minor league career, so yeah, expectations were/are very high. He's a rookie and there will certainly be growing pains, but I'm still not sold on him as becoming some sort of perennial all-star. Maybe it will all click soon and he becomes an important part of the team, or maybe he will wash out in less than a decade. Sure it's a cliche, but time will tell. 

[LambchoP]

Lee will be just fine. Kids a rookie playing through injuries and fatigue while getting forced to play multiple positions. I think if he comes in healthy and well rested in Spring training and the Twins say, here ya go, your our everyday second baseman, he's gonna do great things