Make it Official: Twins 5, Tigers 0: Bailey Ober Dominates Yet Again

[Hans Birkeland]

Coming off a tough loss in the middle game of a three game set in Detroit, the Twins got a gem from Bailey Ober, who coasted through a depleted Tigers lineup, allowing one hit in eight innings to give the Twins a win in both the series and the season series against Detroit.

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K (98 Pitches, 65 Strikes, 66.3%)
Home Runs: None
Top 3 WPA: Ober (.471), Matt Wallner (.101), Manuel Margot (.091)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Following a "scheduled" loss against the magnificent Tarik Skubal, the Twins embarked on a rubber game featuring the surging Bailey Ober, against the dregs of the Detroit Tigers bullpen. Of course, the Tigers are feisty, as indicated by them winning the season series in 2023, and by them splitting the series so far in 2024.

The afternoon started off with the first two Twins batters reaching. However, the second of those was José Miranda, fresh off the IL, and he took a 95-MPH shot to his head from Tigers opening pitcher Alex Faedo. It was gruesome in real time, but Miranda did walk off the field under his own power and passed initial concussion tests.

The Twins let Faedo off the hook by not scoring that inning, and the son of former Twins first-round pick Lenny Faedo likely was pleased with his outing. He was asked to pitch to Manuel Margot to start the second, and Margot greeted him with a sharp single. Faedo then gave way to lefty Easton Lucas, who wasn't able to retire Max Kepler. Brooks Lee nearly hit a three-run home run, but instead settled for a sacrifice fly to make the game 1-0.

Ober was cruising, even in the context of facing a mediocre lineup without its two best hitters in a cavernous ballpark. After a 12-pitch first inning, he needed only six pitches to complete the second, 11 for the third and 12 for the fourth. His changeup looked filthy, and played well off of his cutter. The fastball sat at 91-92 MPH, but with good location. At some points, it seemed like Ober could throw anywhere in the zone and Tigers hitters would not be able to square the ball up enough to do any damage in massive Comerica Park. There were quite a few 350 foot fly outs to center field.

The Twins added another run in the third, with Carlos Santana bringing in Willi Castro with another sacrifice fly against Kenta Maeda. It was sort of nice to see Maeda have some success, though. The sac fly by Santana was charged to Lucas, and Maeda ended up completing four scoreless innings, allowing three hits and striking out three, with his fastball sitting 91-92 MPH.

The Tigers sent Maeda out for a fifth inning, and that's when he ran out of gas. Castro led off with a single, and Austin Martin, who replaced Miranda in the first, rocketed a ball to left field on which left fielder Ryan Vilade made a leaping catch. Wallner then tested Vilade again, but this time with a liner more toward the gap in left center. The ball hopped off the wall and easily scored Castro from first.

Ober had to work a little harder as the outing progressed, with Tigers hitters adjusting to try and work counts, but he still didn't allow a Detroit runner into scoring position. He struck out the side in the eighth inning, and ended upon getting 12 whiffs on his changeup while throwing it a total of 31 times.

The Tigers brought their closer, Jason Foley, into the game in the ninth behind 3-0. Christian Vazquez greeted him with a single up the middle, and Castro walked. Martin doubled into the gap to bring home Vazquez, and Foley's day was done. Royce Lewis pinch hit for Wallner with lefty Andrew Chafin coming in, and was intentionally walked. The struggling Ryan Jeffers then blooped a single to left to score Castro on a first pitch slider to make the score 5-0, surely making Baldelli ponder the idea of letting Ober finish the game.

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With Ober's pitch count at 98, Baldelli made the rational decision to pull his starter and let Caleb Thielbar finish the win.

The Good:
-Ober was amazing. His changeup has looked like an elite pitch for a while now and his command was exceptional.
-Castro had three hits plus a walk and survived getting decked by Wallner as they grappled for a foul flyout to end the sixth.
-Margot had three hits, all off righties.

The Bad:
-Ryan Jeffers looks completely out of whack, striking out on three pitches multiple times. He does have a foot injury but its not listed on any injury report. This looks like to me like one of those classic instances of a player saying he's fine until the season ends and then he explains his poor stats by saying he was hurt the whole year.
-You have to feel bad for Miranda. After going through his shoulder injury last year and falling out of the Twins' plans, he resurfaces and becomes arguably the teams best hitter only to have his back injury stall his momentum. And now we wait to see how his brain recovers from today's hit by pitch.

What’s Next: Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.27 ERA) goes against the team that drafted him, the New York Mets, as they counter with lefty José Quintana (5-6, 4.02 ERA) to start the series in Queens on Monday. The Mets have been on a fast-food mascot inspired tear lately, and are in playoff position, so they will not be rolling over for anyone.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Thielbar	22	0	16	0	25	63
Staumont	0	0	17	21	0	38
Durán	10	0	0	0	0	10
Stewart	17	0	0	18	0	35
Okert	14	0	0	21	0	35
Jax	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alcalá	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sands	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[cmoss84]

Move Ober Mr. Lopez...you are now #3. Not a bad thing. 

Nice going into queens with a full bullpen. Do we make any moves before the deadline? 

[DJL44]

I was listening to the Tigers feed on satellite radio. They mentioned Ober has pitched 26 innings against the Tigers this season with 2 earned runs allowed.

[jimbo92107]

Man, that pitch hit Miranda's head very, very hard. Yo MLB, keep making those helmets bigger. I don't care if they look silly at first, we'll get used to it.

[tony&rodney]

Nice to have two SP in the top ten in baseball in WHIP. Pretty clear that it is impossible to define an ace but performance game to game and over a season sure seems important to me. Ober has been exceptional this year minus his two horrific outings versus KC.

[Parfigliano]

Hope Miranda is available against NYM

[TheLeviathan]

We'd have won this game if Rocco hadn't pinch hit Covid for Influenza in 2020.

[Patzky]

17 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Hope Miranda is available against NYM

I wouldn't put him on a plane for a few days.

[DocBauer]

Take away those bizarrely weird games against the Royals, and I dare say Ober has been arguably our best starter on the season. Watching him last year and this, I keep wondering why I keep reading articles and posts about the Twins needing a rotation arm as good or better than Ober. 

Personally, I think the Twins have 3 very good starting pitchers all capable of starting a playoff game. At least, as long as Lopez has indeed settled in to consistency for the remainder of the season and Ryan doesn't pull another groin.

Sure hope Miranda is OK.

Saving Ober's arm and letting Thielbar get a chance was the right call in the 9th. But it took 25 pitches to get through that half inning? Please tell me we're going to at least add a quality LH arm for the pen?

What got in to Margot today?

[darwin22]

Just an absolute gem by Ober today.  In command all day and just refused to allow DET hitters to get anything going.

Have to admit I darn near did a double take when I saw Vazquez sit in the left handers batters box on the 2-strike pitch to Baez in the 8th!  The homeplate ump sure looked surprised also.  Nice to see Baez whiff on that pitch!

The next thing I'd like to mention is our current catching situation.

I'm sure most would agree that Vazquez is far superior defensively as well as with pitch calling/framing than Jeffers.  On the flip side, Jeffers bat has been far better (until recently) than what Vasquez has done since coming to the team last year.

Never thought I'd EVER and I mean EVER be writing this, but has the time come for Baldelli to bench Jeffers and give Vazquez 5+ starts each week?

After an outstanding April----.338 avg with 5 HRs, 18 RBI with a .424 OBP and .636 slug--Jeffers has totally cratered at the plate as evidenced by these putrid numbers:

May:  .214/.295/.536, but that was mitigated by good production..7 HRs and 18 RBI

June:  .161/.238/.232--------other numbers were gruesome:  1 HR and 5 RBI for the month in 56ABs

July:  Hitting .222 (12-54) with only 1 HR and 6 RBI.  Even with hit today, Jeffers is in a 3-31 funk since July 13th.

Vazquez on the other hand in July has proven to be much more productive:

Now hitting .324 this month (12-37) with 3 HRs and 7 RBI to go along with a plus .360 OBP.

Finally, even after Thielbar's scoreless inning today--can anyone argue against the front office/Falvey making a deal to bring in a LHRP?   Thielbar's command was BAD---needed 25 pitches to get through his inning.  His best days are gone. Okert:  Who trusts him in any tight situation?  Not me!  Funderburk: IMO, the best in the group, but is on IL and has struggled with his command all season.  Yes, it would take giving up a legit prospect (Raya) or two to acquire Tanner Scott from MIA, but the payoff is worth it.  Saying that, I doubt anything of that significance will happen.

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

Good to see Castro get some hits. Currently, I don't have much confidence in Jeffers, Lee and Kepler. If one of those guys could go on a heater, the lineup would look a lot longer.

The graph for Ober has headed north since he got roughed up by the Royals the second time, Pablo really since the three-city road trip, while Ryan hasn't been quite as good his last couple times out. The overall numbers from the rotation are middle-of-the-pack, but trending the right way.

[FlyingFinn]

52 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

What got in to Margot today?

Just looking at the hitting side, if you take his pinch hitting #'s out, he is the hitter we wanted in the trade (but not the fielder).

[Mark G]

I know I am spitting into the wind here, so to speak, but I just can't shake the thought of Ober having a one hit shutout going with only 98 pitches.  The pitcher hasn't been born yet that wouldn't want to finish that shutout; would it have been so dangerous to let him go out there and see how it goes?  I might be able to see it if we were trying to get Jax or Alcala or Duran an inning just to keep them in rhythm, or some sort of bullpen rotation plan, but Thielbar getting in a mop up inning?  For a so called players manager, he manages the company line far more than he manages his players.  

I don't know, maybe the game really has passed me by because I don't recognize that mindset at all.  

[FlyingFinn]

8 minutes ago, Mark G said:

would it have been so dangerous to let him go out there and see how it goes?

He has an injury history - a lot of it but it is getting further and further in the past. I have zero problem with Rocco pulling him.

[JD-TWINS]

Over, after his first start v. Royals Ober’s got 19 other starts with a 3.17 ERA over those 19.

Not sure if faithful here don’t want to jinx SWR’s success or if many are just blind to it or just non-believers? In 17 starts SWR has a 3.27 ERA.

Routinely it is discussed that we have 3 decent starters ……… I’m wondering how long and how much success Richardson needs to have to be included in the “pretty good” group?

To me, ideally, Team trades what’s needed to get Tanner Scott and the holes are pretty well plugged at that point. Twins can limp every 5th start for two months. Festa - Varland - Dobnack - Matthews - Paddack can cover 11 starts - right?

Hope something positive happens in the Pen! I’d take Fairbanks from Tamp and make believe he’s left handed if that’s best we can do.

[wabene]

25 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I know I am spitting into the wind here, so to speak, but I just can't shake the thought of Ober having a one hit shutout going with only 98 pitches.  The pitcher hasn't been born yet that wouldn't want to finish that shutout; would it have been so dangerous to let him go out there and see how it goes?  I might be able to see it if we were trying to get Jax or Alcala or Duran an inning just to keep them in rhythm, or some sort of bullpen rotation plan, but Thielbar getting in a mop up inning?  For a so called players manager, he manages the company line far more than he manages his players.  

I don't know, maybe the game really has passed me by because I don't recognize that mindset at all.  

Isn't the mindset that is hard to reckon, the one concerned with personal achievement in a team sport? Aren't W's the goal, whatever it takes? Bailey strong and ready in September and October far out weighs an inning in a done deal game in July. The long game in a sport with a 162 game schedule.

[Blyleven2011]

24 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I know I am spitting into the wind here, so to speak, but I just can't shake the thought of Ober having a one hit shutout going with only 98 pitches.  The pitcher hasn't been born yet that wouldn't want to finish that shutout; would it have been so dangerous to let him go out there and see how it goes?  I might be able to see it if we were trying to get Jax or Alcala or Duran an inning just to keep them in rhythm, or some sort of bullpen rotation plan, but Thielbar getting in a mop up inning?  For a so called players manager, he manages the company line far more than he manages his players.  

I don't know, maybe the game really has passed me by because I don't recognize that mindset at all.  

Nolan Ryan would throw 150 plus pitches to complete a game  ,  it's definitely a different game protecting the players because of the high salaries  ... 

Ober was a fantastic  artist of his craft today  ...

[wabene]

They ran Pablo up to 109 pitches the start before last for his 3rd outing with 100+ this season. Meanwhile last year Ober was pulled early due to his history. If he finishes this year without the rest he needed down the stretch last year, I'm guessing his leash will lengthen. He seems to keep getting stronger, very encouraging. Don't forget how few innings he was able to pitch until just last year.

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

 it's definitely a different game protecting the players because of the high salaries

Yes, because they routinely let the low-paid rookies throw 150 pitches every game, and they limit only the guys on guaranteed contracts. 😀

[JD-TWINS]

Anybody see or hear of some problem with Larnach’s health? Seems pretty odd that he didn’t DH today with Jeffers getting the nod against a RH pitcher. I read somewhere tonight that Jeffers has a nuisance injury with a foot ……seems he would get/need the day off instead of a fairly hot Larnach - right? Wondering if maybe the pitcher today has bad reverse splits? ………forgot, didn’t see the first 5 innings - bullpen game. Margot did well regardless v. RH pitchers.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

53 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Over, after his first start v. Royals Ober’s got 19 other starts with a 3.17 ERA over those 19.

Not sure if faithful here don’t want to jinx SWR’s success or if many are just blind to it or just non-believers? In 17 starts SWR has a 3.27 ERA.

Routinely it is discussed that we have 3 decent starters ……… I’m wondering how long and how much success Richardson needs to have to be included in the “pretty good” group?

To me, ideally, Team trades what’s needed to get Tanner Scott and the holes are pretty well plugged at that point. Twins can limp every 5th start for two months. Festa - Varland - Dobnack - Matthews - Paddack can cover 11 starts - right?

Hope something positive happens in the Pen! I’d take Fairbanks from Tamp and make believe he’s left handed if that’s best we can do.

Agreed, I think Woods Richardson is a very good pitcher. He’s also a rookie and has never exceeded 120 innings in a season. At 88 innings this season, he’s likely to run out of gas in October. I’d prefer to not have a Dobnak sighting this post season…

[stringer bell]

9 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Anybody see or hear of some problem with Larnach’s health? Seems pretty odd that he didn’t DH today with Jeffers getting the nod against a RH pitcher. I read somewhere tonight that Jeffers has a nuisance injury with a foot ……seems he would get/need the day off instead of a fairly hot Larnach - right? Wondering if maybe the pitcher today has bad reverse splits? ………forgot, didn’t see the first 5 innings - bullpen game. Margot did well regardless v. RH pitchers.

Everyone knew it would be a bullpen game with a mixture of left and right handed pitchers for Detroit. I have been saying for a while now Rocco and the coaches seem far more comfortable with right handed hitters facing right handed pitchers than lefty hitters facing lefty pitchers. 

[jmlease1]

Elite work by Ober. Love seeing that from him, and I don't care what kind of lineup Detroit was running out there. Dominating that much is impressive as hell.

I really hope Miranda is ok; seems like the cheek guard absorbed a lot of it? But it may be an issue that MLB has to look at with the Player's Association in the offseason, because with so many guys throwing so hard now, hitters are in the firing line. Concussions are awful and ruin careers, but beaning a guy even with no intent at all can wreck a player's career too. Gotta protect them all, from themselves if they have to.

[akmanak]

Ober looked completely dialed in and simply dominated. Jeffers needs to make some adjustments.  

Again, can Cleveland please start losing when we  start winning. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Everyone knew it would be a bullpen game with a mixture of left and right handed pitchers for Detroit. I have been saying for a while now Rocco and the coaches seem far more comfortable with right handed hitters facing right handed pitchers than lefty hitters facing lefty pitchers. 

If you look at league splits the four different ways, you can understand why.  It's not just Twins lefties who flail against lefties.

(Also, in the favorable lefty-righty matchups for batters, the right-handers also fare ever so slightly better. Still, because of the far greater number of innings pitched by righties, there's nothing more valuable than a left-handed batter at your disposal.)

[thelanges5]

Jeffers need a 10 day IL stint to get off his feet for a bit? Camargo couldn’t do much worse. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Jeffers need a 10 day IL stint to get off his feet for a bit? Camargo couldn’t do much worse. 

2 week, at least.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Everyone knew it would be a bullpen game with a mixture of left and right handed pitchers for Detroit. I have been saying for a while now Rocco and the coaches seem far more comfortable with right handed hitters facing right handed pitchers than lefty hitters facing lefty pitchers. 

“Everyone”? I hadn’t realized that Detroit had converted Faedo to a reliever this year :)

[Fatbat]

10 hours ago, Mark G said:

I know I am spitting into the wind here, so to speak, but I just can't shake the thought of Ober having a one hit shutout going with only 98 pitches.  The pitcher hasn't been born yet that wouldn't want to finish that shutout; would it have been so dangerous to let him go out there and see how it goes?  I might be able to see it if we were trying to get Jax or Alcala or Duran an inning just to keep them in rhythm, or some sort of bullpen rotation plan, but Thielbar getting in a mop up inning?  For a so called players manager, he manages the company line far more than he manages his players.  

I don't know, maybe the game really has passed me by because I don't recognize that mindset at all.  

Tbar needs to get the work in. He has been all over the place this season.  Jax and Duran will be getting plenty of work in Aug/Sept.  

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

If you look at league splits the four different ways, you can understand why.  It's not just Twins lefties who flail against lefties.

Very true... Those numbers are real... It is not just the Twins creating those numbers. 

Although, the Twins are one of a few clubs that pour cement on their lefthanded hitters in response. Letting it harden at the beginning of the flail.