Make It Official! Twins 7, Phillies 2: Bailey Ober Doesn't Phear the Phillies

[Nate Palmer]

A depleted lineup and the best team in baseball was the recipe for success for the Twins Monday night. Bailey Ober controlled a dangerous Phillies lineup while the offense strung together hits for a 7-2 win. 

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (83 pitches, 58 strikes (69.8%)
Home Runs: N/A
Top 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (0.198), Diego A. Castillo (0.188), Carlos Santana(0.106)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

After a tough two-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins limped into Monday night’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies and the best record in baseball. While the Phillies seemingly field an All-Star at every position, the Twins, riddled with injuries, field a much different lineup than they would like to against a team of Philly's ability. 

Harper strikes first
The rain delay didn’t affect the Phillies' quest to be tuned and ready to play baseball. After a quick out from Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner reached on a single, and then Bryce Harper came to the plate at his first Target Field at-bat. He celebrated the moment by taking a Bailey Ober cutter deep to give the Phillies an early 2-0 lead. 

Ober Rebounds Strong

Ober almost gave up another home run to Harper in his next at-bat, but besides that, the right-hander really found his groove. The hope after an early home run like that would be to keep your team in the game simply; Ober took that sentiment to a level higher than that. 

At one point, Ober put away 12 Phillies batters in a row. That outing gave even the depleted Twins lineup a great chance to get back in the game after the early deficit. After a losing weekend, it was also the sort of losing streak-ending performance that the Twins needed. 

Third Inning Small Ball
With so much of the regular lineup missing, it would be interesting to see where the Twins would find offense against a quality pitcher like Ranger Suarez. Suarez was cruising well for the first two innings until the bottom of the Twins lineup set up the offense to score. 

Diego A. Castillo took a one-out walk to give the Twins their second runner of the game. Manuel Margot followed up Castillo’s walk with a single. Ryan Jeffers grounded out into a fielder’s choice, which put runners on first and second. Finally, Willi Castro punched through a single to bring home Castillo and cut the Phillies lead down to one. 

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Fifth Inning, Second Verse-Same as the First
The turning over of the lineup from the bottom to the top produced for the Twins, starting with Max Kepler in the fifth. In the lefty-on-lefty matchup, Kepler hit for a single. Castillo followed up, this time with a short bloop to right field that bounced off the netting for a ground rule double. 

Margot and the top of the lineup then came around with no outs. Manny slapped his own single to right field to score both Kepler and Castillo, putting the Twins up on the Phillies 3-2. 

Doubles, Doubles, Doubles
As the Phillies took Suarez out of the game just shy of 80 pitches as they try and continue to manage his back, the Twins bats were able to get a little louder. In the seventh inning, Jeffers hit a double, and Santana wanted to stand on second again, so he hit his own double to plate Jeffers.
 
Then again, in the eighth inning, Trevor Larnach also hit his double after entering the game by pinch-hitting earlier for Jair Camargo. Larnach’s double would also set the table for a Twins insurance run. Larnach was lifted for Austin Martin’s speed, and a Kepler single was enough to bring Martin in to score. Giving the Twins a 5-3 lead. 

The eighth continued

with a series of walks and singles and even a wild pitch, adding to the Twins insurance. After nine batters made it to the plate in the inning, the home team could go into the ninth with a 7-2 lead and keep the ball in Cole Sands' hand. 

This game is just a win in the middle of July. It feels like a statement win after struggling out of the break against the Brewers and being down Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Jose Miranda. Castillo was a big part of that win, and he is a guy who is most likely to run out of a spot on the roster quickly as the names above get healthy. 

What’s Next?
The run on high-quality Phillies starters will continue on Tuesday as Zack Wheeler takes the ball. Wheeler will bring a bit more velocity than Suarez and a 2.70 ERA for the Twins to try and figure out. The Twins will counter with rookie Simeon Woods-Richardson, who will be tested to keep the Phillies sluggers quiet. 

Postgame Interviews

 

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Sands	0	0	10	0	30	40
Alcalá	0	0	17	16	0	33
Jax	0	0	14	15	0	29
Staumont	0	0	20	0	0	20
Thielbar	0	0	0	16	0	16
Durán	0	0	12	0	0	12
Okert	0	0	11	0	0	11
Henríquez	0	0	0	0	0	0

View full article

[BH67]

Bailey Ober retires 19 of the last 21 Phillies batters he faced.

Diego Castillo scores twice and Manuel Margot drives in two runs.

Six starters reach base at least twice. Byron Buxton is not among them.

The Twins get their 70th HBP and 200th double of the season, tops in MLB.

Four games behind Cleveland. 30K in attendance tonight.

There’s no quit in these guys even when considerably shorthanded. 
 

[USAFChief]

Kudos, Mr Ober. Massive kudos.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

GAME OBER

('ceptin Harper's)

[JD-TWINS]

BAILEY OBER!! ……7 Strong!

COLE SANDS!! ……..rested balance of the Pen

Too many to mention on offense ….nice evening after the rain stopped.

[ashbury]

Rocco mismanaged the bullpen yet again.

Renowned Phillies-killer Cole Sands will be unavailable for the coming game.

[GNess]

Nice win over a MLB Power and the Twins were/are missing three big right handed bats. This team has some grit.

[Parfigliano]

May as well win tomorrow and get winning the series out of the way

[Peter]

Huge huge huge bounce back win!!! 

[Doctor Wu]

7 hours ago, BH67 said:

Bailey Ober retires 19 of the last 21 Phillies batters he faced.

Diego Castillo scores twice and Manuel Margot drives in two runs.

Six starters reach base at least twice. Byron Buxton is not among them.

The Twins get their 70th HBP and 200th double of the season, tops in MLB.

Four games behind Cleveland. 30K in attendance tonight.

There’s no quit in these guys even when considerably shorthanded. 
 

No to mention, scoring all those runs without hitting any home runs!

[Colbeh]

Huge win! This will be a big test for SWR to see what he's made of. Anything better than 5ip 3er would shoot me out of bed tomorrow morning. 

[Doctor Gast]

23 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

No to mention, scoring all those runs without hitting any home runs!

IMO Twins' post "juice ball" game plan was hit HRs; don't focus on defense, base running, bunting, or hit & run; don't worry about SOs. Especially now when the whole league has the book on this game plan. This game plan no longer if ever works. The true game plan should be the opposite- should be instead, good ABs (don't strike out & clutch hitting), focus on small ball & don't worry about HRs.

[wabene]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Twins' post "juice ball" game plan was hit HRs; don't focus on defense, base running, bunting, or hit & run; don't worry about SOs. Especially now when the whole league has the book on this game plan. This game plan no longer if ever works. The true game plan should be the opposite- of good ABs (don't strike out & clutch hitting), focus on small ball & don't worry about HRs.

I don't inhabit this particular reality.

[Doctor Gast]

I think a lot of fans went to the game to see Harper, Turner & co. play not to see a Twins' win. But everyone was surprised with a great Twins performance. Harper had been impressed with Ober in spring training & Ober was impressive again last night. Sands was impressive in long relief that helped save the BP. Hats off to the Twins for a very impressive win. Go Twins

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

23 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Twins' post "juice ball" game plan was hit HRs; don't focus on defense, base running, bunting, or hit & run; don't worry about SOs. Especially now when the whole league has the book on this game plan. This game plan no longer if ever works. The true game plan should be the opposite- should be instead, good ABs (don't strike out & clutch hitting), focus on small ball & don't worry about HRs.

I’m curious how you reconcile the following facts about the 2024 offense.  The Twins are 6th in MLB in runs, and 7th in homers.  They are also 7th in batting average, and 9th in fewest strikeouts.  Finally, they have gold glove caliber defenders at the two most important positions (other than catcher), and additional gold glove caliber defenders in right and at first.

The only things you’re in the proximity of reality on is baserunning (inasmuch as SB count, where the Twins are 25th is a valid metric) and bunting, where the Twins are also 25th.  That said, it should be noted the Royals, who lead the league in bunts, have a grand total of 18, so no one is constantly laying down bunts.  I also don’t think bunting is a great philosophy for the offense described above.

[umterp23]

18 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I’m curious how you reconcile the following facts about the 2024 offense.  The Twins are 6th in MLB in runs, and 7th in homers.  They are also 7th in batting average, and 9th in fewest strikeouts.  Finally, they have gold glove caliber defenders at the two most important positions (other than catcher), and additional gold glove caliber defenders in right and at first.

The only things you’re in the proximity of reality on is baserunning (inasmuch as SB count, where the Twins are 25th is a valid metric) and bunting, where the Twins are also 25th.  That said, it should be noted the Royals, who lead the league in bunts, have a grand total of 18, so no one is constantly laying down bunts.  I also don’t think bunting is a great philosophy for the offense described above.

Small ball is just as important as putting the ball in the seats.  2 cases in point: Extra inning loss to Brewers with man on 2nd to start the inning, Castro wanted to be the hero swings at low first pitch strike and lazily flies out to CF.  I don't care if defense is going to pinch the corners which they they weren't at the time of 1st pitch. Job is to move the runner to 3rd, didn't happen.  

Margot last night half hearted attempt at 1st pitch bunt and didn't even come close to getting on ground in play.  Swings with all his might to and K's on pitches out of the zone.  He had no intentions of moving the guy over.

Small ball means putting pressure on the defense to execute for outs and Twins don't do it enough or one could say at all.  

Bunting doesn't always mean for base hits.  Hell Brewers bunted multiple times and Twins didn't execute on defense well enough.

[chinmusic]

I have to admit, I was dreading this game. Felt much more comfortable watching Skubals vs Guardians.

Well, shame on me. Important, inspiring, impressive...Twins Win! Twins Win!

[TheLeviathan]

This loss and cancer are squarely at Rocco's feet.

[Doctor Gast]

35 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I’m curious how you reconcile the following facts about the 2024 offense.  The Twins are 6th in MLB in runs, and 7th in homers.  They are also 7th in batting average, and 9th in fewest strikeouts.  Finally, they have gold glove caliber defenders at the two most important positions (other than catcher), and additional gold glove caliber defenders in right and at first.

The only things you’re in the proximity of reality on is baserunning (inasmuch as SB count, where the Twins are 25th is a valid metric) and bunting, where the Twins are also 25th.  That said, it should be noted the Royals, who lead the league in bunts, have a grand total of 18, so no one is constantly laying down bunts.  I also don’t think bunting is a great philosophy for the offense described above.

I credit Baldelli for finally changing the hitting approach after the start of the season when it was obvious that the old one wasn't going to cut it. They are slow but they are finally trying to improve our base running & small ball.

Finally, they've improved our CF substitution defense after years of suffering with Cave. Finally, they improved our SS defense after years of Polanco suffering with his ankles. We finally got Vazquez to bolster our defense-catching position. At our premium defense positions, I wish the Twins were more proactive instead of not seeing our need until it's an obvious shambles. How many GG prospects do we have waiting in the wings when these pass on? At 1B & RF they are very defensively proactive, positions where they need not be & production has to be the focus.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I credit Baldelli for finally changing the hitting approach after the start of the season when it was obvious that the old one wasn't going to cut it. They are slow but they are finally trying to improve our base running & small ball.

Finally, they've improved our CF substitution defense after years of suffering with Cave. Finally, they improved our SS defense after years of Polanco suffering with his ankles. We finally got Vazquez to bolster our defense-catching position. At our premium defense positions, I wish the Twins were more proactive instead of not seeing our need until it's an obvious shambles. How many GG prospects do we have waiting in the wings when these pass on? At 1B & RF they are very defensively proactive, positions where they need not be & production has to be the focus.

You've yet to ever specify what, specifically, changed about their approach. Any detail would go a long way here.

They improved the CF situation by simply having Buxton be healthy with no good defensive backup? 

[Fatbat]

9 hours ago, BH67 said:

Bailey Ober retires 19 of the last 21 Phillies batters he faced.

Diego Castillo scores twice and Manuel Margot drives in two runs.

Six starters reach base at least twice. Byron Buxton is not among them.

The Twins get their 70th HBP and 200th double of the season, tops in MLB.

Four games behind Cleveland. 30K in attendance tonight.

There’s no quit in these guys even when considerably shorthanded. 
 

We got to watch Buck blast 2 hr on Sunday in person while the rest of the offense struggled. Id rather the twins play small ball every day. 

[Whitey333]

Nice surprise win.  Great game by Ober.  I find it amusing that when Twins lose a poorly played game and people complain about their performance they tell us not to worry it's only one game.  Yesterday when they win a nice game against the Phillies that same it's only one game philosophy is never heard.  Yes nice win.  Way to go Twins.  Two more against the Phillies including facing Wheeler on Tuesday.  I hope Twins win them both and sweep the Phillies.  Go Twins.

[Doctor Gast]

8 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

You've yet to ever specify what, specifically, changed about their approach. Any detail would go a long way here.

They improved the CF situation by simply having Buxton be healthy with no good defensive backup? 

If you actually read my texts before you see my name & slam the "thumbs down". I had stated before basically better ABs, that means going deeper in counts, making contact & getting clutch hit not striking out due to trying to hit HRs. If you want more specific you better talk to Baldelli.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Twins' post "juice ball" game plan was hit HRs; don't focus on defense, base running, bunting, or hit & run; don't worry about SOs. Especially now when the whole league has the book on this game plan. This game plan no longer if ever works. The true game plan should be the opposite- should be instead, good ABs (don't strike out & clutch hitting), focus on small ball & don't worry about HRs.

So the philosophy has now switched? Just like that. Larnach and Santana crushed a couple balls that could easily have been homers. But I'm glad the Twins have seen the errors of their past and are fixing them. When I saw Santana steal a base. I KNEW the Phillies were in big trouble.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

 

Margot last night half hearted attempt at 1st pitch bunt and didn't even come close to getting on ground in play.  Swings with all his might to and K's on pitches out of the zone.  He had no intentions of moving the guy over.

 

 

So you know what people's intentions are?  I saw that exact same thing and said to my wife that Margot has no intention of trying to move this guy over. 😄

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you actually read my texts before you see my name & slam the "thumbs down". I had stated before basically better ABs, that means going deeper in counts, making contact & getting clutch hit not striking out due to trying to hit HRs. If you want more specific you better talk to Baldelli.

Those are the results, not the approach. "Trying to get clutch hits" isn't a philosophical change they've made, as if they just weren't trying to hit in clutch situations before? 

The Twins are seeing 3.81 pitches per plate appearance this year (26th in MLB), compared to 3.96 last year (5th) and 3.91 in 2022 (11th). 

They are making contact 74.6% of the time (18th), compared to 71.6% last year (25th) and 75% in 2022 (11th). 

They are hitting flyballs 28.8% of the time (2nd), compared to 27.9% last year (5th) and 27.5% in 2022 (7th).

You keep repeating and repeating and repeating about some "all or nothing HR approach" that you cannot define and for which there is no proof in the data other than strikeouts, which ballooned last year largely because of the personnel in Gallo, MAT, a hurt Buxton, and Wallner and Julien having more playing time.

 

All I'm asking is for some actual proof of concept if you're going to repeat the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over......

[LambchoP]

Good solid win for the boys. I'm still a bit worried about our problem hitting with RISP. Especially bases loaded. How many times have we seen guy on 2nd nobody out, and we end the inning without even moving the guy to third. Even worse, bases loaded nobody out, with no runs to show for it. Frustrating to watch but with Lewis and Miranda back soon with Correa to follow, I'm hoping this will improve a bit:)

[Schmoeman5]

20 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Those are the results, not the approach. "Trying to get clutch hits" isn't a philosophical change they've made, as if they just weren't trying to hit in clutch situations before? 

The Twins are seeing 3.81 pitches per plate appearance this year (26th in MLB), compared to 3.96 last year (5th) and 3.91 in 2022 (11th). 

They are making contact 74.6% of the time (18th), compared to 71.6% last year (25th) and 75% in 2022 (11th). 

They are hitting flyballs 28.8% of the time (2nd), compared to 27.9% last year (5th) and 27.5% in 2022 (7th).

You keep repeating and repeating and repeating about some "all or nothing HR approach" that you cannot define and for which there is no proof in the data other than strikeouts, which ballooned last year largely because of the personnel in Gallo, MAT, a hurt Buxton, and Wallner and Julien having more playing time.

 

All I'm asking is for some actual proof of concept if you're going to repeat the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over......

Good luck with that. I'm glad the Twins aren't playing Correa and Lewis and Miranda hurt like they did Kirilloff. Putting him out there in LF and taxing his body. Shameful how they treat some players. And stop slamming that thumbs down button. You're going to break it.

[mnfireman]

54 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

We got to watch Buck blast 2 hr on Sunday in person while the rest of the offense struggled. Id rather the twins play small ball every day. 

The team had 9 hits on Sunday, that's hardly struggling. And it was hardly small ball as they had Buxton's 2 HR and 2 2B. BUT the small-ball playing Brewers crushed 4 HR and 2 2B for the win...

[Fatbat]

7 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

The team had 9 hits on Sunday, that's hardly struggling. And it was hardly small ball as they had Buxton's 2 HR and 2 2B. BUT the small-ball playing Brewers crushed 4 HR and 2 2B for the win...

Yeah, I was at the game. We lacked base runners and key hits when guys were on base.  Sundays team RISP 1 for 12.  4 runs scored on 3 HR.  Martin would have saved 2 runs if the kid would’ve not caught the HR ball that barely got over the wall.  Its a game of inches but baserunners and key hits wins games.