Yusei Kikuchi or Bust if the Twins Want a Rental at the MLB Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

The Twins’ current front office has avoided trading for rental players, a trend that might change in 2024. If so, it may be Yusei Kikuchi or bust for the Twins at the MLB Trade Deadline.

Over the All-Star break, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the Twins would like to add a pitcher to the starting rotation and are open to a rental arm. It’s worth noting that the team’s payroll dropped $30 million this winter, and attendance has been lower than expected at Target Field. These factors likely result in the team having less payroll space for next season, especially with other parts of the roster rising in price. 

The Minnesota Twins have been in search of pitching stability for several seasons, striving to build a rotation that can both compete in the AL Central and make a deep playoff run. With a lineup boasting potential and a young core ready to make the leap, the missing piece for the Twins might be a trade for Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays. Here’s why the Twins should consider this move and how Kikuchi could be the key to unlocking their championship aspirations.

Veteran Presence
Kikuchi, a 33-year-old left-hander, has a significant track record from both Japan and Major League Baseball. Since joining the Blue Jays in 2021, Kikuchi has demonstrated that he has the talent to be a reliable starter in the big leagues. While his tenure in Toronto has been a mixed bag, the potential is evident. In 2023, Kikuchi made strides with a 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9. His numbers haven’t been as strong this year (4.42 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP). However, his ability to strike out batters and eat innings might be exactly what the Twins need.

A Southpaw for the Rotation
One of the glaring needs for the Minnesota Twins is a consistent left-handed starter. The current rotation consists entirely of right-handed pitchers, which can be a disadvantage against left-heavy lineups. Kikuchi’s addition would provide a much-needed southpaw option, offering a different look to opposing batters and balancing the rotation. He’s held lefties to a .675 OPS this season compared to a .762 OPS against righties. His left-handed presence could add a strategic advantage for the Twins.

Upside and Improvement Possibilities
Kikuchi’s performance metrics indicate that his performance still has untapped potential. His xERA is nearly 40 points lower than his ERA, suggesting he has the tools to be more effective. Perhaps the Blue Jays coaching staff has missed something, and a change of scenery could prove beneficial. The Twins’ coaching staff has a history of working well with pitchers to refine their skills and maximize their output. With the proper adjustments and a new environment, Kikuchi could become a frontline starter for Minnesota for the second half.

Pitching Depth and the Unknown
Adding Kikuchi to the rotation would provide the Twins with additional depth. Injuries and underperformance are common in the long MLB season, and having a reliable option like Kikuchi would give the Twins a safety net. Chris Paddack is likely on an innings limit in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Twins are also unsure of how Simeon Woods Richardson will hold up in his rookie season. There’s no such thing as too much pitching depth during the season. 

Trading for Kikuchi presents a unique opportunity for the Minnesota Twins to address several pressing needs within their pitching staff. Kikuchi’s proven Major League experience, left-handed advantage, and potential for improvement make him an appealing target. There are other starters on expiring contracts, but Kikuchi might provide the best chance at a deal that fits the Twins’ short-term needs without giving up the farm. 

Should the Twins target Kikuchi? Is there a better option on an expiring deal? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[JD-TWINS]

If Twins get a rental, I really hope the target is Tanner Scott. IMO, the need for lefty is more of a spot insertion later in the game. If a lefty starts the line-up is often skewed to handle that initially. Scott would help with a deficiency in the bullpen with a very sharp lefty. I think, with some risk, a Paxton type gets the starts that may be needed, allowing the focus to be on acquiring Scott.

[Whitey333]

As always it depends on what prospects we have to give up.  I don't think the Twins will make any significant trades.  Perhaps minor moves.  With payroll tight and possibly reduced next year as well I think Falveys hands will be tied.

[gmwannabe]

Kikuchi will be the more expensive in salary and prospect capital so Paxson is more likely for the Twins. Scott will be the most in demand for a left handed reliever. The trifecta is Kikuchi, Scott, and Lane Thomas replacing Thielbar, Farmer, and Margot! Wishful thinking but doable.

[Cap'n Piranha]

This proposal does seem possible.  From the Twins’ side, Kikuchi provides rotation depth through the rest of the season, and could theoretically be used as a lefty option and/or length option out of the bullpen in the playoffs.  Most importantly, his salary this year is only $10M, meaning by the time the Twins trade for him, he should be owed less than $4M.  
 

Because of that, it shouldn’t take much to acquire him, and wouldn’t even be too hard to slightly up the prospect return to have the Jays eat all his salary.  For the Jays, this is an obvious move in a year where they are not going to the playoffs, hence I will be shocked if Kikuchi is not moved.

Good article Cody.

[Doctor Gast]

15 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

As always it depends on what prospects we have to give up.  I don't think the Twins will make any significant trades.  Perhaps minor moves.  With payroll tight and possibly reduced next year as well I think Falveys hands will be tied.

IMO with a tight payroll, the Twins will have to walk a tightrope. Kikuchi is a veteran presence but has that helped TOR, IMO just the fact he's a LHSP doesn't normally move the needle. He does add depth & innings but can we do that cheaper? The ruling factor should be if the Twins think that they can  transform him into a top-tier SP going into the postseason

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

They desperately need a starting pitcher. I tend to think it will be Paxton. 

[Otaknam]

Kikuchi or Paxton would help. It just depends on who would have to be included in a trade. Not Rodriquez, Keaschall, Raya, Jenkins or Soto. Festa or Culpepper. Maybe Schobel since he has several ahead of him. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

to have the Jays eat all his salary.

The Jays have a strong incentive to dump his salary to get under the competitive balance tax threshold.

[Muppet]

I don't see why they would want an inconsistent pitcher who has a poor track record on the hopes that they could fix him. Just bring up Dobnak if you are desparate for a pitcher. He's having a pretty good year in AAA and you don't have to give up anything to get him. 

[Karbo]

I also believe it depends on who they would give up in a trade. IMO it's not worth trading any of the top 20-25 rated prospects.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I also believe it depends on who they would give up in a trade. IMO it's not worth trading any of the top 20-25 rated prospects.

Most prospects rated lower than 10 will not contribute much to the future of the team. Those guys are usually utility players, 5th starters or relief pitchers.

[LambchoP]

If they can get Kikuchi without giving up too much, I like it. He'd probably just take Paddacks spot in the rotation and then IF Paddack pitches again this year, he'll be in the bullpen. I still think we need a good lefty for our pen as well.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Any time that a team "must acquire a particular player" it sets them up for an overpay.  If the Twins are smart, they will kick the tires on every available starter and then make an offer for one they like.  Kikuchi is one, but there are others as well who could also do as good a job for the team.  The best deals are usually the ones that nobody saw coming.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Twins get a rental, I really hope the target is Tanner Scott. IMO, the need for lefty is more of a spot insertion later in the game. If a lefty starts the line-up is often skewed to handle that initially. Scott would help with a deficiency in the bullpen with a very sharp lefty. I think, with some risk, a Paxton type gets the starts that may be needed, allowing the focus to be on acquiring Scott.

Paxton was DFA for a 25 year old prospect, and he somehow is going to help MN? Don't we have prospects?

[Fatbat]

This could be a shrewd move. James Paxton was DFA’d by the Dodgers with an 8-2 record and a 4.11 ERA. We could do a sign and trade with them to get him before he goes to waivers.  Probably just cost us some cash.  

[DJL44]

There is a creative way for the Twins to not take on additional salary but help the Jays reduce their luxury tax number. Randy Dobnak is "off the books" for luxury tax calculations but he's still owed a little more than $3M.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

They desperately need a starting pitcher. I tend to think it will be Paxton. 

I don't know, this front office hasn't been terribly inclined to go after soft-tossing, high-contact guys except on MiLB deals. They like the strikeouts (justifiably), I'm not sure putting Paxton in the rotation would appeal to them much.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Muppet said:

I don't see why they would want an inconsistent pitcher who has a poor track record on the hopes that they could fix him. Just bring up Dobnak if you are desparate for a pitcher. He's having a pretty good year in AAA and you don't have to give up anything to get him. 

Unless you're looking at ERA, I don't know that there's much to fix. Kikuchi throws gas, strikes out a ton of batters and doesn't give up many free passes. Like Joe Ryan, he's had a problem giving up homeruns in the past, but in this year of suppressed offense, he's not any more. I know that I like Kikuchi more than most, but he has the stuff to be the best arm in the Twins rotation. I like him better than Bassitt and Gausman.

My only concern would be that I'd bet something will change to increase offense next year, so I'd not want the Twins to fall in love with him and re-sign him only for the long balls to come back into play next season.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Is there any reason to believe the Twins will increase their payroll over the last 2 months of the year?  I mean ANY reason?  Insider scuttlebutt?  Non-public information?

I ask because these articles about potential trade targets continue to be pumped out with zero reason to believe they will increase payroll one nickel, which basically any trade will do.

[madtowntwin]

i'm still of the opinion to explore the option /  availability of Cal Quantrill...Move Paddack and or Varland to the bullpen. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Kikuchi would be a decent get, but it all depends on the price. He's not worth anybody in the top ten prospects. IS he worth Corey Lewis, Tanner Schobel, or Andrew Morris? Hard to do that for just 2024, assuming he will sign elsewhere as a FA after 2024.  

To me, this all depends on how good you think this team is and whether you think they can compete (defined as a deep  playoff run) this year. I tend to think this team is good but not good enough to get to the ALCS unless the playoff schedule is very favorable, and there's at least a 30-40% we won't make the playoffs at all.  I think the window opens much wider next year as the younger players have more experience. I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice much just for 2024, so I wouldn't be willing to give up much for Kikuchi. 

My call would be Tyler Anderson of the Angels. He's signed for $13m next year, a palatable sum if you want to keep him and a tradable contract if you don't. He's also a lefty and has better stats this year although inconsistent year to year. The Angels are open for business and need pretty much anything you got to replenish that farm system. A package of two prospects, one in the top 15-20, might do it.  I'd love out get Estevez too but I think the price is going to be bid up pretty high on him and he's only a rental. 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Is there any reason to believe the Twins will increase their payroll over the last 2 months of the year?  I mean ANY reason?  Insider scuttlebutt?  Non-public information?

I ask because these articles about potential trade targets continue to be pumped out with zero reason to believe they will increase payroll one nickel, which basically any trade will do.

Is there anything to suggest they wouldn't? I doubt 5M or whatever he'll make is a make-or-break endeavor. I know everyone wants to rip ownership over last off season, and rightfully so, but they raised payroll the prior several years, and then at the last minute this winter got a boost in revenue by finally agreeing to a terrible TV deal.

[mrcharlie]

The Twins have one obvious need.

Pitching from the left side.  Kikuchi provides the most upside at a reasonable price. That would be one of our OF (Wallner or Larnach) and low level prospect.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, mrcharlie said:

The Twins have one obvious need.

Pitching from the left side.  Kikuchi provides the most upside at a reasonable price. That would be one of our OF (Wallner or Larnach) and low level prospect.

The Twins aren't giving up a piece off the MLB roster to add to the MLB roster.

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Kikuchi would be a decent get, but it all depends on the price. He's not worth anybody in the top ten prospects. IS he worth Corey Lewis, Tanner Schobel, or Andrew Morris? Hard to do that for just 2024, assuming he will sign elsewhere as a FA after 2024.  

To me, this all depends on how good you think this team is and whether you think they can compete (defined as a deep  playoff run) this year. I tend to think this team is good but not good enough to get to the ALCS unless the playoff schedule is very favorable, and there's at least a 30-40% we won't make the playoffs at all.  I think the window opens much wider next year as the younger players have more experience. I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice much just for 2024, so I wouldn't be willing to give up much for Kikuchi. 

My call would be Tyler Anderson of the Angels. He's signed for $13m next year, a palatable sum if you want to keep him and a tradable contract if you don't. He's also a lefty and has better stats this year although inconsistent year to year. The Angels are open for business and need pretty much anything you got to replenish that farm system. A package of two prospects, one in the top 15-20, might do it.  I'd love out get Estevez too but I think the price is going to be bid up pretty high on him and he's only a rental. 

He is worth Schobel (who I wish well), but minor league OPS is .714 and most of that came last year at high A, since at no other time has he put up a .700 OPS on top of a plays a position the Twins are seemingly deep in.

The argument that the Twins aren't good enough to go far in the playoffs is an excuse that could be used every year from now until there is no more MLB baseball.

The Window is wider next year? Really? how is this team getting younger? It isn't like the Twins have a multiple young guys just coming into their own next year besides Lee and SWR. Everybody else is already over the age of 25 (or older)and probably are who they are.

[1985Fan]

With all of the teams that think they’re contenders due to playoff format, competition for pitching at the deadline drives up prices beyond reasonable. FO should have learned from past experience and factored that into their season plan. They’re not going to be able to afford the prospect price or the salary cost of acquiring impact arms at the deadline. They’re going to have to stick with what they have and add when players return from IL or from MiLB system. 
For the BP they’re going to count on Stewart and Topa coming back fully healthy and contributing. For the rotation, it will have to be Festa, or Dobnak, or Matthews. Ready or not, they will win or lose with those guys, and I’m ok with that. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I also believe it depends on who they would give up in a trade. IMO it's not worth trading any of the top 20-25 rated prospects.

I struggle with the, not wanting to give anything up approach. The reason to acquire someone is to ensure (help) getting into the playoffs. It’s not worth the organizations 16th prospect to get to this end?

There is always competition for players at the deadline - I think minds need to be more open to actually making something happen for the betterment of ‘24 outcome.

[JD-TWINS]

Trade stuff OUTSIDE PITCHING thread:

Essentially every comment about the Twins since beginning of ‘23 is that they need another RH bat……..I don’t see any worth in spending prospect capital here. Stick with pitching needs.

Martin - Margot - Jeffers - Buxton - Correa - Miranda - Santana - Lee - Castro - Lewis …..that’s 10 guys that are in the mix and hitting LH pitching, or anticipated to hit LH pitching. That’s enough!

[LA Vikes Fan]

13 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He is worth Schobel (who I wish well), but minor league OPS is .714 and most of that came last year at high A, since at no other time has he put up a .700 OPS on top of a plays a position the Twins are seemingly deep in.

The argument that the Twins aren't good enough to go far in the playoffs is an excuse that could be used every year from now until there is no more MLB baseball.

The Window is wider next year? Really? how is this team getting younger? It isn't like the Twins have a multiple young guys just coming into their own next year besides Lee and SWR. Everybody else is already over the age of 25 (or older)and probably are who they are.

There are two reasons I think the window gets wider next year.  First, I think that Miranda, Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, and Lee at the very least will continue to improve and be stalwarts in the lineup next year. I also have hope that Wallner and LArnach will do the same. I disagree that by age 25 players "are what they are". I think the window for improvement continues to least 27 or 28 and maybe even beyond that. People get better at their job the more they do their job. Second, I also think we're going to see improvement from Ryan, SWR, and Ober in the rotation and a better year from Lopez. I also see a step up in the secondary players as Martin takes over for Margot, Julien and Lee take over for Farmer, and Miranda starts playing every day and slowly eases out Santana (who I think will be back next year). That's not counting Emma, Keaschall, and Keirsey, all of whom could help the Twins in 2025 either as a reserve or in the second half of the season. Overall, I think the team is trending up and has not yet hit the potential of the players we currently have, much less players on their way up.

I do agree that he is probably worth Schobel now that I've looked more closely at how he's doing. That of course means he is less likely to be enough for the Blue Jays. My thought would be trading someone outside of the top 10 who is not a pitcher might make some sense given all of the younger players we already have. I'm just not ready to give up any more than that.