Yusei Kikuchi Or Bust in Twins' Search for a Starting Pitcher at Trade Deadline?

As always it depends on what prospects we have to give up.  I don't think the Twins will make any significant trades.  Perhaps minor moves.  With payroll tight and possibly reduced next year as well I think Falveys hands will be tied.

Kikuchi will be the more expensive in salary and prospect capital so Paxson is more likely for the Twins. Scott will be the most in demand for a left handed reliever. The trifecta is Kikuchi, Scott, and Lane Thomas replacing Thielbar, Farmer, and Margot! Wishful thinking but doable.

This proposal does seem possible.  From the Twins’ side, Kikuchi provides rotation depth through the rest of the season, and could theoretically be used as a lefty option and/or length option out of the bullpen in the playoffs.  Most importantly, his salary this year is only $10M, meaning by the time the Twins trade for him, he should be owed less than $4M.  
 

Because of that, it shouldn’t take much to acquire him, and wouldn’t even be too hard to slightly up the prospect return to have the Jays eat all his salary.  For the Jays, this is an obvious move in a year where they are not going to the playoffs, hence I will be shocked if Kikuchi is not moved.

Good article Cody.

15 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

As always it depends on what prospects we have to give up.  I don't think the Twins will make any significant trades.  Perhaps minor moves.  With payroll tight and possibly reduced next year as well I think Falveys hands will be tied.

IMO with a tight payroll, the Twins will have to walk a tightrope. Kikuchi is a veteran presence but has that helped TOR, IMO just the fact he's a LHSP doesn't normally move the needle. He does add depth & innings but can we do that cheaper? The ruling factor should be if the Twins think that they can  transform him into a top-tier SP going into the postseason

They desperately need a starting pitcher. I tend to think it will be Paxton. 

Kikuchi or Paxton would help. It just depends on who would have to be included in a trade. Not Rodriquez, Keaschall, Raya, Jenkins or Soto. Festa or Culpepper. Maybe Schobel since he has several ahead of him. 

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

to have the Jays eat all his salary.

The Jays have a strong incentive to dump his salary to get under the competitive balance tax threshold.

I don't see why they would want an inconsistent pitcher who has a poor track record on the hopes that they could fix him. Just bring up Dobnak if you are desparate for a pitcher. He's having a pretty good year in AAA and you don't have to give up anything to get him. 

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I also believe it depends on who they would give up in a trade. IMO it's not worth trading any of the top 20-25 rated prospects.

Most prospects rated lower than 10 will not contribute much to the future of the team. Those guys are usually utility players, 5th starters or relief pitchers.

If they can get Kikuchi without giving up too much, I like it. He'd probably just take Paddacks spot in the rotation and then IF Paddack pitches again this year, he'll be in the bullpen. I still think we need a good lefty for our pen as well.

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Twins get a rental, I really hope the target is Tanner Scott. IMO, the need for lefty is more of a spot insertion later in the game. If a lefty starts the line-up is often skewed to handle that initially. Scott would help with a deficiency in the bullpen with a very sharp lefty. I think, with some risk, a Paxton type gets the starts that may be needed, allowing the focus to be on acquiring Scott.

Paxton was DFA for a 25 year old prospect, and he somehow is going to help MN? Don't we have prospects?

This could be a shrewd move. James Paxton was DFA’d by the Dodgers with an 8-2 record and a 4.11 ERA. We could do a sign and trade with them to get him before he goes to waivers.  Probably just cost us some cash.  

There is a creative way for the Twins to not take on additional salary but help the Jays reduce their luxury tax number. Randy Dobnak is "off the books" for luxury tax calculations but he's still owed a little more than $3M.

Is there any reason to believe the Twins will increase their payroll over the last 2 months of the year?  I mean ANY reason?  Insider scuttlebutt?  Non-public information?

I ask because these articles about potential trade targets continue to be pumped out with zero reason to believe they will increase payroll one nickel, which basically any trade will do.

i'm still of the opinion to explore the option /  availability of Cal Quantrill...Move Paddack and or Varland to the bullpen. 

The Twins have one obvious need.

Pitching from the left side.  Kikuchi provides the most upside at a reasonable price. That would be one of our OF (Wallner or Larnach) and low level prospect.

21 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Kikuchi would be a decent get, but it all depends on the price. He's not worth anybody in the top ten prospects. IS he worth Corey Lewis, Tanner Schobel, or Andrew Morris? Hard to do that for just 2024, assuming he will sign elsewhere as a FA after 2024.  

To me, this all depends on how good you think this team is and whether you think they can compete (defined as a deep  playoff run) this year. I tend to think this team is good but not good enough to get to the ALCS unless the playoff schedule is very favorable, and there's at least a 30-40% we won't make the playoffs at all.  I think the window opens much wider next year as the younger players have more experience. I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice much just for 2024, so I wouldn't be willing to give up much for Kikuchi. 

My call would be Tyler Anderson of the Angels. He's signed for $13m next year, a palatable sum if you want to keep him and a tradable contract if you don't. He's also a lefty and has better stats this year although inconsistent year to year. The Angels are open for business and need pretty much anything you got to replenish that farm system. A package of two prospects, one in the top 15-20, might do it.  I'd love out get Estevez too but I think the price is going to be bid up pretty high on him and he's only a rental. 

He is worth Schobel (who I wish well), but minor league OPS is .714 and most of that came last year at high A, since at no other time has he put up a .700 OPS on top of a plays a position the Twins are seemingly deep in.

The argument that the Twins aren't good enough to go far in the playoffs is an excuse that could be used every year from now until there is no more MLB baseball.

The Window is wider next year? Really? how is this team getting younger? It isn't like the Twins have a multiple young guys just coming into their own next year besides Lee and SWR. Everybody else is already over the age of 25 (or older)and probably are who they are.

With all of the teams that think they’re contenders due to playoff format, competition for pitching at the deadline drives up prices beyond reasonable. FO should have learned from past experience and factored that into their season plan. They’re not going to be able to afford the prospect price or the salary cost of acquiring impact arms at the deadline. They’re going to have to stick with what they have and add when players return from IL or from MiLB system. 
For the BP they’re going to count on Stewart and Topa coming back fully healthy and contributing. For the rotation, it will have to be Festa, or Dobnak, or Matthews. Ready or not, they will win or lose with those guys, and I’m ok with that.