This Second Half Feels Pivotal for the Twins Franchise From a Big-Picture Perspective

[Nick Nelson]

In the moment, of course it feels important for the Twins to stay on track in the second half, reach the playoffs and make some noise. When you zoom out, and consider the broader circumstances of this franchise, the stakes feel even higher. 

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Back in early May, I wrote about how the Twins were killing their brand, and it was painful to watch as an invested longtime follower of the team. They drastically reduced their payroll coming off a breakthrough season, they reneged on their promise to increase viewership availability, and to top it all off, the team really stumbled out of the gates in April.

Fortunately, the Twins were able to turn the tides in a big way following a 7-13 start. They've since been one of the best teams in baseball, winning 18 of their 24 series behind a punishing and relentless offense. Minnesota's roster produced a pair of All-Stars (Carlos Correa and Willi Castro) with several others deserving of strong consideration. Their strong play has kept the Twins within five games of the division-leading Guardians, who have the best record in the American League.

Despite all these on-field positives, the organization has seen a further drop in attendance, averaging 1,200 fewer fans per game than in 2023. They stand almost no chance of reaching their goal of 2 million tickets sold this year. 

"There’s room to quibble about how much each specific factor has led to the Twins’ decreased attendance," writes Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic, "but it’s undeniable that their television mess, on the heels of their inactive, payroll-slashing offseason, brought rising fan morale to a screeching halt and turned off many devoted followers in a way that reinforced their longstanding suspicions about ownership." 

Even as the team is succeeding and playing very entertaining ball, their brand crisis is only worsening. It's very unsettling to think about the long-term implications of this trend persisting; as Gleeman notes, this can become a vicious cycle where lower revenue leads to even less investment from the team, and thus less investment on behalf of the fan base.

Right now, the Twins have a unique opportunity to win back some fan energy and perhaps change the course of their current downward plunge. A great second half leading into a meaningful postseason run could do much to draw back detached fans and casuals, while building palpable excitement heading into the offseason and 2025. If Minnesota were to reach the ALCS or even the World Series, it would be a game-changer in terms of the organization's perception (while also producing significant extra revenue).

The opposite scenario is a scary one. If the Twins, say, hold onto the second wild-card spot and end up getting dispatched by the Yankees (whom they'd face in New York if the playoffs started today), that's only going to enflame the disgruntlement. If the Twins fizzle out and miss the postseason entirely, it's going to really rile up the rancor and foment fan disinterest. This feels like an outcome the Twins simply cannot afford as a business right now.

Much is riding on the next two and a half months. The future of the Twins franchise could be greatly influenced by how things play out. No pressure or anything, boys.

View full article

[Brock Beauchamp]

No pressure, Falvey. Just make a bunch of moves, get them all right, and don't spend an extra dollar.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

In the moment, of course it feels important for the Twins to stay on track in the second half, reach the playoffs and make some noise. When you zoom out, and consider the broader circumstances of this franchise, the stakes feel even higher. 

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Back in early May, I wrote about how the Twins were killing their brand, and it was painful to watch as an invested longtime follower of the team. They drastically reduced their payroll coming off a breakthrough season, they reneged on their promise to increase viewership availability, and to top it all off, the team really stumbled out of the gates in April.

Fortunately, the Twins were able to turn the tides in a big way following a 7-13 start. They've since been one of the best teams in baseball, winning 18 of their 24 series behind a punishing and relentless offense. Minnesota's roster produced a pair of All-Stars (Carlos Correa and Willi Castro) with several others deserving of strong consideration. Their strong play has kept the Twins within five games of the division-leading Guardians, who have the best record in the American League.

Despite all these on-field positives, the organization has seen a further drop in attendance, averaging 1,200 fewer fans per game than in 2023. They stand almost no chance of reaching their goal of 2 million tickets sold this year. 

"There’s room to quibble about how much each specific factor has led to the Twins’ decreased attendance," writes Aaron Gleeman at The Athletic, "but it’s undeniable that their television mess, on the heels of their inactive, payroll-slashing offseason, brought rising fan morale to a screeching halt and turned off many devoted followers in a way that reinforced their longstanding suspicions about ownership." 

Even as the team is succeeding and playing very entertaining ball, their brand crisis is only worsening. It's very unsettling to think about the long-term implications of this trend persisting; as Gleeman notes, this can become a vicious cycle where lower revenue leads to even less investment from the team, and thus less investment on behalf of the fan base.

Right now, the Twins have a unique opportunity to win back some fan energy and perhaps change the course of their current downward plunge. A great second half leading into a meaningful postseason run could do much to draw back detached fans and casuals, while building palpable excitement heading into the offseason and 2025. If Minnesota were to reach the ALCS or even the World Series, it would be a game-changer in terms of the organization's perception (while also producing significant extra revenue).

The opposite scenario is a scary one. If the Twins, say, hold onto the second wild-card spot and end up getting dispatched by the Yankees (whom they'd face in New York if the playoffs started today), that's only going to enflame the disgruntlement. If the Twins fizzle out and miss the postseason entirely, it's going to really rile up the rancor and foment fan disinterest. This feels like an outcome the Twins simply cannot afford as a business right now.

Much is riding on the next two and a half months. The future of the Twins franchise could be greatly influenced by how things play out. No pressure or anything, boys.

 

View full article

 

I agree with this article! It's especially important, as they are nearly guaranteed to cut payroll again this coming year (Kepler replaced with a minimum wage guy, and Farmer the same). It might go "up" with raises, but it isn't going up from adding players......I can see a future where only CC, Buxton and Lopez are signed past 2025.....and everyone else is pre-arb or arbitration. They need to get the fans back on board before that happens....

Lewis and Lee and Julien being good and healthy would also help (Wallner too, MN love their locals), as CC and Buxton look likely to have ongoing health issues, and they need a person to cheer for.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

No pressure, Falvey. Just make a bunch of moves, get them all right, and don't spend an extra dollar.

Is he signed past this year? Because I have a suspicion he's ready to move on.....

[Linus]

I agree with this article as well. Winning draws attention away from the other stuff: losing puts it on the forefront. From a payroll perspective they should be able to manage it because they are in a position now to be able to fill backup roles with cheap young players. I haven’t always been a fan of Falvine as I don’t agree with some of principles they stick to but the results are starting to show. Their pitching is better than it used to be and they have a youngish lineup with more talent on the way. 

[Jocko87]

I'm not sure I get the point of this article. I was quite interested when I saw the headline. Surely Nick had an interesting angle on which mid 20s former prospects were about to be swept away by a new wave of certain to cure our chronic Minnesotis, we got it right this time kids in shining armor.

Nope, just another grumble piece to remind fans that aren't gripped in the Minnesota loser vortex to not enjoy, lest something happen. Gleeman as the voice of the fan, yikes. Voice of the Minnesota mentality (solid sports team name) who's motto is nice things not allowed.

I'd bet maybe 5% of all fans have a view even remotely close to the Gleeman summation and many of those have it because of him. 

Any reason why this feels bigger than the stinker teams they fielded after the new stadium opened? They are doing the most important thing correctly, building a consistent winner, the TV deal will vanish into the memories of only a few. If Gleeman lets it.

[BH67]

The potential collapse of regional sports networks after the resolution of Diamond Sports's corporate viability is a serious revenue danger not just for the Twins but a dozen clubs. Attendance is down by similar percentages at many other clubs, suggesting that recessionary trends nationwide are leading people to cut down on less necessary purchases.

Any team willing to part with six years' money for Carlos Correa deserves the benefit of the doubt. The Pohlads may tap into their personal wealth to a greater degree to maintain the Twins' viability, and I'm not inclined to say they won't if necessary. And the growth of the farm system shows that they're trying to remain competitive as long as possible while revenue issues remain unresolved.

[Road trip]

Not to be all doom and gloom, but I agree with the premise of the article.  Things are more than a bit dire for the Twins brand.

More playoff wins would help rekindle fan interest, boost the attendance next year, and thus the payroll.

Anecdotally, I remain interested and post more often on here because my cohort of friends have largely stopped paying attention to and talking about the Twins.  They've moved on, some because they can't watch on cable, some because of the payroll doom and gloom, some because they would rather just spend their time doing something else.  Nobody has even mentioned a Road Trip to Minnesota this year, which used to be a once a summer weekend trek for several of us from the hinterlands of Twins territory (yet still within MLB's idiotic blackout territory).

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Not to be all doom and gloom, but I agree with the premise of the article.  Things are more than a bit dire for the Twins brand.

More playoff wins would help rekindle fan interest, boost the attendance next year, and thus the payroll.

Anecdotally, I remain interested and post more often on here because my cohort of friends have largely stopped paying attention to and talking about the Twins.  They've moved on, some because they can't watch on cable, some because of the payroll doom and gloom, some because they would rather just spend their time doing something else.  Nobody has even mentioned a Road Trip to Minnesota this year, which used to be a once a summer weekend trek for several of us from the hinterlands of Twins territory (yet still within MLB's idiotic blackout territory).

Yup. No one I know talks about them anymore (of course, I'm in OR now, but I used to talk about them some with friends back in MN, no more). Which is why I spend too much time here....

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Things are never dire for a professional sports team. They'll be here long after all of us, continuing to make money hand over fist while crying poor. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Things are never dire for a professional sports team. They'll be here long after all of us. 

This is likely true, but there might be bumps along the way.....that said, nothing lasts forever, so it is theoretically possible MLB has a real problem. Not likely though....

[Original_JB]

If they don't get back on the tube, not even winning is going to make a difference. And if you think that it'll improve for the playoffs here's who has the broadcast rights for 2024: FOX, FS1, TBS, ESPN, ESPN2 and MLB Network. If you note, only Fox is a non-cable, non-subscription option. 

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, BH67 said:

The potential collapse of regional sports networks

Inevitable, not potential. This is the death rattle.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is he signed past this year? Because I have a suspicion he's ready to move on.....

I think ownership will be ready for him to move on from Falvey rather than the opposite case. Ownership was pretty pointed last year the bar was raised in terms of expectations on the field, and they didn't extend him after the playoffs last year. Falvey is on an expiring contract along with Thad Levine, who couldn't even secure a 2nd round interview with the Red Sox this past offseason.

All in all, Falvey's got a pretty good gig. Mid market payroll, low fanbase expectations, nice facilities, good location. Not sure where he'd move on up to? San Francisco, maybe San Diego? Lots of competition for those roles.

[bean5302]

I think it's pretty clear this year is a decisive one for the Twins franchise. Coming off their first playoff win and advancement in 20 years with a relatively new face of ownership, a GM on an expiring contract, a failed TV deal and a president and CEO who has consistently failed to meet expectations for several straight years, the Twins are in a position to totally clean house.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

If they don't get back on the tube, not even winning is going to make a difference. And if you think that it'll improve for the playoffs here's who has the broadcast rights for 2024: FOX, FS1, TBS, ESPN, ESPN2 and MLB Network. If you note, only Fox is a non-cable, non-subscription option. 

All of these networks are broadcast on a variety of streaming services.  

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm not sure I get the point of this article. I was quite interested when I saw the headline. Surely Nick had an interesting angle on which mid 20s former prospects were about to be swept away by a new wave of certain to cure our chronic Minnesotis, we got it right this time kids in shining armor.

Nope, just another grumble piece to remind fans that aren't gripped in the Minnesota loser vortex to not enjoy, lest something happen. Gleeman as the voice of the fan, yikes. Voice of the Minnesota mentality (solid sports team name) who's motto is nice things not allowed.

I'd bet maybe 5% of all fans have a view even remotely close to the Gleeman summation and many of those have it because of him. 

Any reason why this feels bigger than the stinker teams they fielded after the new stadium opened? They are doing the most important thing correctly, building a consistent winner, the TV deal will vanish into the memories of only a few. If Gleeman lets it.

That much is obvious....

I don't think it's a stretch to say that the percentage of users on this site (people with higher than average investment levels) who view the situation similarly to Gleeman far exceeds 5%. And no, those who hold that opinion aren't simply lemmings. It's highly unlikely that fans with lower investment levels would be less affected by the blackouts and payroll purge. 

[Whitey333]

Great article.  I agree with it.  They have done such a poor public relations job just this past year alone.  The TV debacle has been going on fir at least 4 years.  Every couple of months they tell us it will be fixed.  But here we go again.  Plus they pretty much pushed 40 year anniuncer Dick Bremer out the door and try to tell us he retired.  Whether you like Bremer or not a man that has spent 40 years in the TV booth should be allowed to pretty much go out on his own.  Then cutting payroll telling us there was no money coming from Bally Sports.  Then getting money from Bally and not investing it back into the team.  Closing the upper  bowl of sears the first several games thus making some people pay more to sit in more expensive seats.  The giveaways this year have been a joke.  Many times the freebies are only given to the first 5000 fans.  Sometimes 10000 fans.  How do you explain to your grandsons that even though you were nearly one hour early to get the freebies they were out and they couldn't get one?  It used to be thousands more.  Not to mention over $200 for the game.  It's a good thing the team is playing well or who cares?

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

All of these networks are broadcast on a variety of streaming services.  

That's the problem. To get the games you need to buy a variety of streaming services.

[Pat]

It is certainly clear from a PR standpoint that they have pretty much dropped the ball.   "Out of sight, out of mind" summarizes the debacle of the TV deal and its effects.

[Original_JB]

51 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

All of these networks are broadcast on a variety of streaming services.  

if you have a subscription....

[Beast]

Of course it is.  It’s monstrous.

If we can’t do some damage in the playoffs, or even make the playoffs, with basically the whole division in a rebuild cycle and no clearly dominant/unbeatable AL teams, payroll “maxed out,” Lopez, Buxton, and Correa on big lengthy contracts, most of our marquee prospects (or recent prospects) at the major league level (namely Lewis and Lee), and guys like Correa, Buxton, Castro, Miranda, Ryan, Jax, etc. all having career years simultaneously (lightning doesn’t strike twice in that regard)….that’s an absolutely epic failure and we start staring down the barrel of a fairly tough roster situation with no easy way out.

Im already feeling relatively hopeless when it comes to this team seriously competing for a championship again in my lifetime.  That may be a coffin nail.

[Major League Ready]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's the problem. To get the games you need to buy a variety of streaming services.

I don't know exactly what all the services provide but I switched to one that carries ESPN / Fox / TBS and MLB on a single service.  There must be others.

[TwinkieFan4life]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

They are doing the most important thing correctly, building a consistent winner, the TV deal will vanish into the memories of only a few. If Gleeman lets it.

The TV deal will vanish from my memory once I forget we have a team, given I haven't seen a game on TV in two years.

[Schmoeman5]

Why can the Guardians avg. 25,000 per game or the Brewers 30,000 per game with a smaller payroll? I don't know what their TV revenue is. But it can be done. It's called marketing. The Twins don't have a marketing dept? Or do they just suck at it. Or have they just damaged the fan base beyond repair. The Angels are terrible.  I think they averaged over 40,000 for their 3 game weekend series vs the Twins

[DJL44]

Lots of baseball to watch tonight. Every game that isn't on Apple+ is free on MLB.tv!

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

The TV deal will vanish from my memory once I forget we have a team, given I haven't seen a game on TV in two years.

They're on TV on Sunday!

[Nashvilletwin]

What a bunch of doom and gloom - and for no reason.

Sure, payroll will fall next year, as it should.  Farmer, Kepler, Santana and Margot will be gone and replaced by Lee, Julien, Wallner and one other (take your pick between Kiriloff, Rodriguez, or someone else). Plenty of money left over for some extensions. Next year’s lineup with those guys, Lewis, Miranda, Castro, Correa, Buxton, Jeffers, Ryan, Lopez, SWR, Ober, one or two of our young starters and Duran, Jax and Alcala leading the pen is a GREAT lineup.
 

This team will not only win, but be more exciting to watch.  Also, the tv deal will get resolved. The combination of those three will drive an increase in attendance.  Also, if we get inflation to moderate, that would give fans a little more disposable income to spend on seeing the Twins.

The gloomy continuous drivel about ownership’s supposed penury is just nauseating. I know for a fact the franchise loses upwards of tens of millions on a cash basis every year (and, yes, the equity value increases might be equal to or exceed those losses, but cash is cash).  The Twins are actually a pretty well run, classy organization,  If you don’t like it, either go make several billion yourself and buy the team, or just quit being a fan.

I for one think the future is bright and the team’s long term plan is shaping up nicely - and the team continues to be competitive as it does.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

What a bunch of doom and gloom - and for no reason.

Sure, payroll will fall next year, as it should.  Farmer, Kepler, Santana and Margot will be gone and replaced by Lee, Julien, Wallner and one other (take your pick between Kiriloff, Rodriguez, or someone else).e as it does.

That is reason enough for doom and gloom.

Lee - OK - Joey Julien and Joey Wallner - pfft ; they better do well in the post season this year, with those no post season.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This is likely true, but there might be bumps along the way.....that said, nothing lasts forever, so it is theoretically possible MLB has a real problem. Not likely though....

MLB has a real problem thats getting worse in that a few teams can vastly outspend everyone else on the best players.

The playing field isnt level.  The fact that teams like my NYM miss spend doesnt change that the field isnt level.  Most people arent going to spend their money or time on a system like that.  As the system stands now there are many many games that boil down to welterweights vs. heavyweights.