This is Why Byron Buxton is Worth His Contract

[Cody Christie]

He’s injured too much. He can’t play in center field. He’s slowed down on the bases. Why did the Twins give him that contract? Despite his detractors, Byron Buxton is proving his worth in 2024.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

In a perfect world, Byron Buxton would have played at an All-Star level for his entire career by avoiding injuries and producing in all facets of the game. After he was drafted with the second overall pick in 2012, Buxton's journey to stardom was riddled with setbacks and challenges that tested his resolve and the faith of those who believed in him. There have been stretches where he has been baseball’s best hitter, and times when his body failed him. It can be challenging for fans to grasp his true value. 

Buxton has carried the weight of expectations from a fanbase hungry for success. The Twins placed their faith and resources into Buxton, signing him to a seven-year, $100 million contract extension. Many questioned the decision (and continue to question it), citing Buxton's injury history and inconsistent performance. Yet, those who truly understood the game saw beyond the statistics; they saw a player whose potential transcended mere numbers.

After undergoing an arthroscopic procedure to excise the plica (a membrane flap) in his right knee, Buxton entered the season with renewed optimism. In April, he posted a .678 OPS with 10 extra-base hits in 27 games. His offensive performance was below his output in recent years, and he racked up a 32-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 99 plate appearances. Buxton was providing value by playing more regularly in center field while showing his speed on the bases. However, it was a different style of player than last season, when he was relegated to DH duties. 

In May, Buxton made small strides at the plate, raising his OPS 74 points in 43 plate appearances. He missed 14 games with inflammation in his right knee, a disheartening injury based on his recent history. Buxton failed to produce offensively, and another trip to the IL gave more ammunition to his detractors. It was easy to imagine a scenario whereby Buxton returns and struggles to produce on either side of the ball. Instead, he’s shown his actual value in recent weeks.

Since Jun. 7, Buxton has gone 24-for-70 (.343), with five doubles, one triple, and five home runs. He homered four times in the last six games, fueling a career-long stretch wherein he drove in at least one run in six straight games. His OPS for the season ranks among the league leaders in center field. His sprint speed continues to be elite (98th percentile), helping him be one of the game’s best defenders in that spot. He ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in fielding run value, OAA, arm strength, and arm value. Buxton is one of the best baseball players on the planet when he is healthy.

Last season, Buxton struggled through his knee injury, attempting to provide the Twins with value from the DH spot. FanGraphs pegged him as being worth $5 million. In 2024, he has already been worth $14.1 million, and the season is only a little over half over. Minnesota has paid him $51 million to this point in his career, and Buxton has provided the Twins with nearly $163 million in total value. Buxton is living up to his contract, even if his performance declines in the second half. There are limits to what a team can get with $15 million per season on the market these days, and the Twins can get plenty of excess value when Buxton is playing at his current level.

But it wasn't just his value that endeared him to fans and teammates alike; it was his unwavering humility and determination. Buxton never sought the spotlight or craved accolades. Instead, he let his performance on the field speak for itself, earning the respect of the competition. His leadership extends beyond the diamond, where he mentors younger players and serves as a role model for aspiring athletes in the community.

Buxton and the Twins knew that his contract extension was not just a financial investment, but a testament to the power of perseverance. For the organization and its fans, he was more than just a player. He symbolized hope, and a reminder that greatness could be achieved with unwavering dedication and belief. He has been the Twins' symbol of intensified, concentrated greatness, in the face of occasionally career-threatening adversity.

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Will Buxton provide the Twins with $100 million of value during the life of his contract, for your money? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[bighat]

Buxton will always be a "Favorite Twin" for many - and deservedly so. 

One small argument is that I'd say that Buxton is among the best players on the planet when he's HOT - not necessarily when merely "healthy". He's gone through some horrific cold stretches when perfectly healthy. 

Hopefully the current hot streak keeps going for a while, he can carry the team for a week or two when this happens. Let's all enjoy it while it lasts. 

[Karbo]

Buxton was so bad last year this year it looks like he may be trying to make up for it. BB just isn't cut out for regular DH duties. It sure is nice watching him in CF this season. Now, the question for me is can he be consistent? This latest hot streak probably won't last, but when it's over how does he look at the plate? IMO if he can keep his avg. in the .260 to .280 and keep his OPS above .750 he is worth every penny they pay him.

[Whitey333]

Another Buxton gloating, and over- hyped and excessively dramatized story.  I'm sorry for him that he's been injured so much.  We never got to see him full time.  We will never know him in that way because his biggest statistic in 9 years is games missed.  Yes he's oʻn a hot streak right now.  It's about time!  But we all k ow that he is close to another 2 for 25 stretch that will highlight his ability to flail away at pitches low and away.  He sure gets a lot of kudos for such a part time player.  Twins Daily could do better by being a little more authentic and honest about Buck.  

[Doctor Wu]

33 minutes ago, bighat said:

Buxton will always be a "Favorite Twin" for many - and deservedly so. 

One small argument is that I'd say that Buxton is among the best players on the planet when he's HOT - not necessarily when merely "healthy". He's gone through some horrific cold stretches when perfectly healthy. 

Hopefully the current hot streak keeps going for a while, he can carry the team for a week or two when this happens. Let's all enjoy it while it lasts. 

He certainly has the talent, but obviously it's been a frustrating few years for the fans, and I'm sure for Buxton too. As you noted, even when he's healthy he can be streaky, hot and cold. Seems like he has cut down on the strikeouts this season (but please fact check me on that one), so that at least is encouraging. In any case, it will be a nice to change to have a healthy AND productive Buxton down the stretch. 

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Buxton was so bad last year this year it looks like he may be trying to make up for it. BB just isn't cut out for regular DH duties. It sure is nice watching him in CF this season. Now, the question for me is can he be consistent? This latest hot streak probably won't last, but when it's over how does he look at the plate? IMO if he can keep his avg. in the .260 to .280 and keep his OPS above .750 he is worth every penny they pay him.

With today’s OPS average at .706 and League Batting Average at .242 those are lofty standards.

His career BA has dropped to .241 after last year. 

Same thought process, IMO, a .250 BA and 40 XBH would be nice, lower end, expectations. This output combined with his defense and AVAILABILITY get him to his contract level and beyond.

[JD-TWINS]

27 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Another Buxton gloating, and over- hyped and excessively dramatized story.  I'm sorry for him that he's been injured so much.  We never got to see him full time.  We will never know him in that way because his biggest statistic in 9 years is games missed.  Yes he's oʻn a hot streak right now.  It's about time!  But we all k ow that he is close to another 2 for 25 stretch that will highlight his ability to flail away at pitches low and away.  He sure gets a lot of kudos for such a part time player.  Twins Daily could do better by being a little more authentic and honest about Buck.  

I get it, “…..stretches where he’s been the best hitter in baseball….” this is a stretch, outside maybe 3-4 games, 2 or 3 times.

Cant though, continually wallow in past failures or disappointments. 

He cannot hit or recognize most sliders on outer 10% of plate or beyond the zone!! Cannot! Not sure why anyone throws anything in the zone. Fastballs up (many hitters achilles) and sliders down and away………..he strikes out at a 40% rate and probably hits .150.

That said, if he hits 18 HR & 25 Doubles for the year while playing in 130 plus games, it’s a big win to have his talent & potential for being a difference maker at #7 in the line-up!!……,and in CF most of the time……,

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great article Cody. Your well written article was about more that numbers. It was about a man who gets back up each and every time he falls. Isn't this the ultimate character test for each of us? 

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

He certainly has the talent, but obviously it's been a frustrating few years for the fans, and I'm sure for Buxton too. As you noted, even when he's healthy he can be streaky, hot and cold. Seems like he has cut down on the strikeouts this season (but please fact check me on that one), so that at least is encouraging. In any case, it will be a nice to change to have a healthy AND productive Buxton down the stretch. 

FYI, he's below his career norm in K%, but above his 2019-2021 stretch which was the best run of his career. He's at 27.5% this year compared to a career 29.2%, and 30.4% and 31.4% the last 2 years. So some improvement for sure.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The defense is insanely good and also very valuable, but he has not done well when he is relied upon to be the main component of the offense.  Right now, hitting about #7 or so, the pressure is off a little and he seems to be responding.  He’s a really good lower part of the batting order hitter, he’s not my choice for the top third of the order.  

Is he worth the contract?  Healthy, yes.  $15M doesn’t buy a ton in the free agent market.  We’ve just got to keep him out there and playing.  Plus, as with all long-term deals, he is being paid a little for what he did in the past in addition to what the future holds.

 

[JD-TWINS]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

He certainly has the talent, but obviously it's been a frustrating few years for the fans, and I'm sure for Buxton too. As you noted, even when he's healthy he can be streaky, hot and cold. Seems like he has cut down on the strikeouts this season (but please fact check me on that one), so that at least is encouraging. In any case, it will be a nice to change to have a healthy AND productive Buxton down the stretch. 

He’s at 29.7% K rate…..not great but it probably fits him. A parallel .260 BA helps one live with the K rate, IMO.

Biggest deal is he was on IL for 14 games ……can assume a similar break in 2nd half? If that works out, health-wise, he projects to play 125-130 games……his availability is the key.

More Doubles and an OK amount of HR’s works!

In 2017, when he played 140 games, he had 36 XBH total for the season. After 63 games played this year he has 24 XBH. With health, his key stat, he projects to 45 XBH or beyond.

 

 

 

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, he's below his career norm in K%, but above his 2019-2021 stretch which was the best run of his career. He's at 27.5% this year compared to a career 29.2%, and 30.4% and 31.4% the last 2 years. So some improvement for sure.

64K’s/215AB’s…….right? I get 29.8% in ‘24. Maybe my source is off?……whatever, he’s being more effective when not striking out…..we’re talking 2 AB’s in 100 AB’s for the K% difference….not a big deal.

[Reptevia]

He is basically Michael A. Taylor. Buxton’s stats are slightly better, but not dramatically so, and Taylor’s come at a much smaller cost. It’s too bad, but there it is. 

[SF Twins Fan]

17 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

64K’s/215AB’s…….right? I get 29.8% in ‘24. Maybe my source is off?……whatever, he’s being more effective when not striking out…..we’re talking 2 AB’s in 100 AB’s for the K% difference….not a big deal.

Strikeout percentage is calculated off of plate appearances not at bats.  He has 233 plate appearances on the season.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

Buxton will always be a "Favorite Twin" for many - and deservedly so. 

One small argument is that I'd say that Buxton is among the best players on the planet when he's HOT - not necessarily when merely "healthy". He's gone through some horrific cold stretches when perfectly healthy. 

Hopefully the current hot streak keeps going for a while, he can carry the team for a week or two when this happens. Let's all enjoy it while it lasts. 

He is streaky and as such is the 'perfect' face of the team this year. I worry about that 0-4 Sunday! Skubal will be a challenge tonight.

I think we have seen enough shoddy outfield defense already to appreciate Buck playing even if he is in a cold stretch. Ditto Correa. Let's just not assume anyone 'doesn't do slumps' because the Baseball Gods say slumps will do them.

 

[stringer bell]

18 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

64K’s/215AB’s…….right? I get 29.8% in ‘24. Maybe my source is off?……whatever, he’s being more effective when not striking out…..we’re talking 2 AB’s in 100 AB’s for the K% difference….not a big deal.

K percentage is based on plate appearances, not official at-bats. Buxton has 233 plate appearances and as noted has struck out 64 times. 

[Aerodeliria]

It's a TD requirement to write this kind of article whenever Buxton gets hot....

[stringer bell]

If Buxton's health (I guess that means his knee at this point) remains good, I don't think he will slump as long or as badly as he did in 2023. For one thing, there are scratch singles to beat out as he has done several times this year. On a related note, while he hasn't stolen many bases, he has shown his elite speed in the field and on the bases, which is fun to watch and separates him from most random "fast guys".

[Doctor Gast]

I was under the impression that FO didn't want to extend Buck & Buck didn't want to sign. But Buck wanted to sign as did most of the fanbase. & Buck signed a no-brainer owner-beneficial performance-based contract. With GG bar CF as his base, I completely disagree with the way they managed Buck in '22.  #1 kept him out of CF #2 kept playing him hurt at DH trying to artificially extend his AB & having bad results. IMO if he can't play CF don't play him, if he's hurt don't keep aggravating the injury by playing him. shut him down & fix him so he can give some quality production down the road.

'22 wasn't great, '23 was recovering from '22. But '24 he has made up for it. '24 his biggest problems haven't been physical it was emotional (placing a lot of pressure on himself to produce), mechanical (trying to pull everything) & mental (trying to apply all the analytics to his swing). When he simplified everything he started to rake. Many have been pessimistic about Buck playing time, I'm not. I expect good things from Buck this 2nd half & years to come.

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

64K’s/215AB’s…….right? I get 29.8% in ‘24. Maybe my source is off?……whatever, he’s being more effective when not striking out…..we’re talking 2 AB’s in 100 AB’s for the K% difference….not a big deal.

I just used his baseball savant percentages. They use PAs not ABs.

[LambchoP]

I love watching Buck when he's going good. Hitting lower in the lineup and not being relied upon to be the team's star slugger has taken a lot of the pressure off him. Gold glove defense in center with some pop in his bat....I'd take that for 15 mil a year:)

[Trov]

The contract that was signed was very much set up based on his possible value, but with taking into account his long history of injuries.  I fully expect a few more stints on IL this year.  However, if we can make playoffs and he be healthy and hot, he is the type that can carry a team through a playoff series.  We have yet to see him be healthy in the playoffs, let alone be hot.  

On the flip side, he can get so cold that you just shake your head at his swinging at sliders low and away three straight times.  I do feel the team did him a huge disservice when he was coming up, making all kinds of changes to his swing every time he had a slump. 

[miller761]

In my mind the Twins had to sign Buxton to that extension. No matter what the next years bring I applaud the Twins for doing that contract and I am grateful for that contract. He is the quiet leader of this team and the face of the Minnesota Twins.

[GV14218]

“It was easy to imagine a scenario whereby Buxton returns and struggles to produce on either side of the ball. Instead, he’s shown his actual value in recent weeks.”  In other words, it’s the same old story - we’re in yet another “Buxton flashy period,” when one can be tempted to believe we’ve arrived at the proverbial promised land.  (yawns)  I’ll look for your article when BB has landed once again on the IL. 

[GV14218]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

If Buxton's health (I guess that means his knee at this point) remains good,

Yes, “if” … 

[wabene]

At this point Buxton has an OPS of .769 for an OPS+ of 116. It's important to consider the low bar for a good bat in center field. Even with the slow start he is at a good pace this year. Don't want to jinx him, but the plica surgery was apparently as successful as is expected with this procedure. How many games does he play? He sure looks good right now. That contract was a smart deal that just might work out. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

64K’s/215AB’s…….right? I get 29.8% in ‘24. Maybe my source is off?……whatever, he’s being more effective when not striking out…..we’re talking 2 AB’s in 100 AB’s for the K% difference….not a big deal.

I think the denominator in calculating SO and BB rate is plate appearances, not at bats. He gets "credit" for not striking out when he walks, gets HBP, or hits a sacrifice. He has 233 plate appearances and 64 strikeouts. That's a strike out rate of 27.46%, not 29.8%. So, a little better, but still above the MLB average as you would expect for a power hitter with a .460 SLG, .491 in the last 30 games, .714 in the last 15.  

[bean5302]

I didn't even have to read this article, but I suppose I did anyway. No. Byron Buxton is not, was not, and never will be worth his contract. Falvey panicked when no other team in MLB saw Buxton as a superstar worth acquiring for a superstar's price in 2021 as the Twins feverishly shopped him before the trade deadline. Caught with their pants down, an angry Buxton who was the face of the franchise at the time, Falvey made one of the worst decisions as the Twins GM. He dramatically overvalued his player, and handed Buxton a 7 year contract when no other team in baseball would have given him more than 3. The fact other teams were not biting on Buxton is clear evidence on how the rest of the league viewed him.

He will never be healthy. Even this year I doubt he'll play more than 100 games (if he gets to that point). Even if he does maintain his current playing pace, he's projecting as a 3 WAR player this year for $15MM on a very long term contract with a full NTC through 2026. That necessitates carrying another full time, MLB starting caliber CF on the roster, and paying that outfielder CF'er money, while not playing them full time. You simply know Buxton will be hurt for 1/2 the year. 

Buxton is one of the best baseball players on the planet when healthy is just hyperbole. Matt Tolbert was one of the best baseball players on the planet because he was in MLB. In his prime, Buxton was a 5-6 WAR full season (if he remained healthy for 150 G, which will never happen) category, though some analysts and Twins fans thought he was some sort of 10+ WAR guy who "turned the corner" and has "figured it out" after every single 2 week hot streak. To me, he's certainly not a guy you have to worry about potentially bringing home an MVP because there have always been significantly better players than Buxton. He's in decline at this point. Now age 30 with diminishing bat speed and power, a plethora of chronic injuries that have piled up, and having lost a step, Buxton's ceiling is probably substantially lower.

Buxton cannot get on base. He doesn't take walks and his batting averages are going to hover in the low 200s range because he's a fly ball hitter with a ton of pop ups and strike outs. His BABIP is 30pts higher than his career rate right now. His xwOBA is 14pts lower than actual. His bat is a declining 20% better than league average type of asset, which is still good, but not great overall. That means a huge portion of his value is playing elite CF, but Buxton is not an elite CF anymore. He ranks 10th in UZR/150 and 15th in OAA this year.

Having failed to produce during his prime on a locked-in contract, and having passed the torch of the face of the franchise along to multiple other players, Buxton is just a very good, but unreliable player whose contract is a bit of a burden.

[joefish]

"...for those who truly understand the game..."

The rest are just a basket full of deplorables?

😂

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

I love watching Buck when he's going good. Hitting lower in the lineup and not being relied upon to be the team's star slugger has taken a lot of the pressure off him. Gold glove defense in center with some pop in his bat....I'd take that for 15 mil a year:)

Can’t imagine a better #7 hitter in baseball? It’s a tribute to the guys in front of him as well, but he really extends the line-up with Jeffers in the bottom 1/3 as well.

Speaking of line-up length, Santana - Castro - Miranda….,$8.5M total in ‘24, approximately ……..Wow! ……..,these 3 are consistently performing at the plate!!!