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Posted

In recent weeks, Trevor Larnach and José Miranda have reinserted themselves into the team’s long-term plans. It can be easy to discount top prospects who struggle, but patience is required when developing big-league talent.

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Every team would love for their top prospects to make a splash during their big-league debut and go on to have a 15-year Hall of Fame career. Unfortunately, multiple obstacles can hinder a player’s development throughout their professional career. Fans want players to be instant superstars, but organizations must be patient in helping players overcome obstacles put in a player’s path. 

Twins fans are getting an up-close-and-personal view of this playing out in the organization. Minnesota expected the trio of Edouardo Julien, Matt Wallner, and Alex Kirilloff to be contributing to the big-league roster. Instead, all three players are at Triple-A, trying to rediscover their offensive approach. Two other young hitters have seen their fair share of struggles in recent seasons, but positive signs in 2024 have them trending back in a positive direction.  

Trevor Larnach, OF
The Twins drafted Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft from Oregon State University, where his powerful swing helped his team win the College World Series. It was the first time since 1969 that Minnesota selected a collegiate outfielder with their first pick in the MLB Draft. At the time, the Twins had plenty of positive things to say about him as they were drawn to him by his high exit velocities in college. "He's definitely a corner outfielder and we think he throws enough and moves enough to play right," scouting director Sean Johnson said. "This is really about an offensive player with upside and power."

Previous Obstacles: Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries during his professional career, including a turf toe, a double core muscle injury, a wrist injury, and groin soreness. His time at the big-league level continued to be interrupted by injuries while mixing in some poor performance. Injuries played a part in his lackluster overall production because he attempted to play through bumps and bruises, impacting him on both sides of the ball.  

2024 Recap: Historically, Larnach struggled to hit offspeed and breaking pitches which caused the Twins to demote him last season. In 2024, he is seeing fastballs less regularly (down 8%) and offspeed pitches more often (up 10%). Last year, he posted a .150 SLG against offspeed pitches and raised that to a .321 SLG so far this season. He’s also dropped his Whiff% on breaking pitches (down 21.9%) and offspeed pitches (down 7.8%).  Larnach will likely never be an above-average hitter versus non-fastballs, but he’s made incremental improvements. Pitchers can’t throw him slop and retire him as easily as in previous seasons. 

José Miranda, INF
The Twins drafted Miranda in the second round of the 2016 MLB Draft (73rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico. MLB Pipeline didn’t have him ranked among the top available prospects in the draft, but the Twins were happy with the signing at the time. "He has a really good swing," Twins scouting director Deron Johnson said. "He's aggressive. We're going to send him out as a shortstop, but realistically, he's probably a third baseman. But he's a really good player and really skilled."

Previous Obstacles: Miranda was set to be a regular for the 2023 Twins before a shoulder injury in spring training slowed him down. He attempted to play through the injury and struggled to produce offensively. In 40 games, he posted a 57 OPS+ with a 15.8 K%. Defensively, the Twins couldn’t use him at third base because of his shoulder issues. Other players passed him by on the organizational depth chart, so he had much to prove for the 2024 campaign. 

2024 Recap: Miranda entered play this weekend with a 124 OPS+, ten points higher than his OPS+ from his rookie season. He makes consistent contact with a Whiff% and K% in the 70th percentile or higher. There have been multiple areas of growth for him in 2024, including career-high totals in Barrel % (7.4), Barrel/PA (5.9), and Launch Angle (15.7). His base running value has also made significant jumps despite being a slower runner. During his rookie season, his base running value sat in the 34th percentile, and he’s increased that to the 72nd percentile this season. Miranda is finding ways to be an above-average regular, which adds tremendous value. 

Miranda and Larnach might never become All-Stars, but both have an opportunity to be above-average regulars at the big-league level. Teams need players like this to stay competitive and complete a roster. They were once viewed as top-100 prospects, and their path to regulars has seen some obstacles. Still, they are positively contributing to the 2024 Twins, and other players can follow in their footsteps. 

How have expectations changed for Larnach and Miranda? Which player will have the most significant impact on the club in future years? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 


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Posted

Both guys have come back from "no chance to make the club" in Spring Training to prominent roles on a good offense. Larnach is platooned, probably for good reason, but Miranda has done well against both right and left handed pitching and is a choice to start every game. Neither guy is a future Gold Glove winner, but aren't defensive black holes. 

With the disappointing seasons so far from Kirilloff, Wallner and Julien, having Miranda and Larnach thrive has been a season saver.

Verified Member
Posted

They both have shown why you do not just dump guys because of some struggles.  So many fans were writing both off after last year and felt trades or DFA should be done.  Where would we be this year without them?  Everyone was sold that Wallner jumped past Larnach to a point that Larnach was out the door.

It took longer than some would like but Larnach finally seems to have adjusted to how they pitch him at MLB level.  The book is still throw offspeed over and over, with a once in awhile show me fastball out of the zone or way on edge to keep him honest once in awhile.  Like yesterday, he saw no fastballs from Castillo.  Castillo went changeup in middle of zone, then changeup low changeup low over and over. The fact he is taking some of them for balls, and then actually hitting them when they are strikes is huge. 

Miranda just is healthy.  I say it time and again, even little injuries where you are just dealing with pain, can affect so much in your swing, or pitching that you do not even notice until that pain is gone.  They talked on game last night about the high fastball Miranda is doing better with this year.  Think about how last year, his back shoulder was in pain, as someone who broke his shoulder once, it is hard to lift it up fully sometimes and if he could not lift his back arm up high enough, makes it hard to hit the high fastball at all. 

Posted

I never lost confidence in Miranda. Last year was injury related and I figured, given a chance, he would do well when healthy.

Larnach has seems to have figured out that letting so many off speed pitches would be low or out of the zone, and to let them go. Even last season he was driving in runs. This year, so far, he is hitting the ball hard all over the place. Sadly, many of them have been at-'em balls. I expect him to be a big part of the team going forward.

Posted

A good point of this posting is to not give up on young players. And, maybe more importantly, you can’t count on young players production, because, as this posting points out, their progression is not linear. Have to give the FO and the player development team kudos for Miranda and Larnach. As fans, we need to be patient with guys like Kirillof, Julien, and Wallner. 

Posted

I think Miranda has a great chance to become an all-star in the next few years. He's forced his bat into the lineup everyday and if he can shore up his glove work he will probably be our starting first baseman next year. Lewis is at 3rd, Lee will be at 2nd and Miranda is too young to be dubbed a DH. I think s lineup with both Miranda and Larnach looks real good right now. Now we just need to finally dump Farmer and give his roster spot to the more deserving Brooks Lee. Why waste precious MLB development just to run out Farmer who is as automatic of an out as you can get, and will be gone next year anyways?

Posted

I'll admit, I had forgotten that Larnach had gotten up into the Top 100 and as high as some had him rated. Of course the pore-2021 rankings were basically guesswork from everyone because of the pandemic since there was no minor league season. Larnach also might have been one of those guys whose development cycle got messed up because of losing the 2020 season. He ended up getting less than half a season in AA and might have benefitted from having that time to hone his approach on breaking pitches before getting thrown into the fire in MLB. he's also dealt with some injuries too.

Miranda I never really worried about his ability, just whether other players had passed him on the depth chart because of his injury year in 2023. Never felt like last year's struggles were anything other than health related, but when you're playing positions that have a lot of high-level competition it doesn't take much to get pushed down. (Look at what happened to Nick Gordon, who was playing very well in AAA before another injury hit and Arraez took the opportunity and ran with it. Gordon never really got much of a chance on the dirt again in MLB) I hope Miranda spends a lot of time in the off-season working at 1B; there's a real opportunity for him there and if he can be a 1B who occasionally fills in at 3B and plays some DH he'll have a very significant role if he keeps hitting like this.

The last option year really helped Larnach stick with the Twins: they didn't HAVE to decide if he was a MLB player at the start of the season and could let him recover from the turf toe, get healthy, and wait for an opportunity in the minors. Without that, there's a good chance he would have been lost on waivers.

Posted

If I had to choose between the two, I'd take Miranda. I am glad Larnach is contributing but I'm going to wait until he puts in a full season before I get too excited. 

Not sure how the Twins keep Miranda's bat and Lewis' bat in the lineup every day, but I suppose it's a good problem to have. 

Could Miranda possibly be a trade candidate? 

Posted

Here we have 2 types of hitters represented in the system. Miranda, Kiriloff & Lee are pure hitters if they aren't hitting, it's because there is something physically wrong & need to correct the physical problem. Then we have the "all or nothing" big bats. Larnach, Wallner & Julien. The league has the book on the holes in their swing & they have to relearn their mechanics. I doubted Larnach but he proved me wrong this offseason by adjusting, which gives me hope that Wallner & Julien can too. My concern is that they may at times fall back in their old ways.

I am very excited about our young hitters like (LHH) Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner, Julien, & Keirsey (SHH) Lee, Castro & Severino (RHH) Miranda & Martin who can hit RHPs besides LHPs. All of them deserve playing time in MLB. I  was very disappointed that FO picked up inferior veterans to block our young players from valuable playing time and forced our temporarily more vulnerable hitter Kiriloff into a more physically demanding position to jeopardize his swing & health.

Posted
23 minutes ago, bighat said:

If I had to choose between the two, I'd take Miranda. I am glad Larnach is contributing but I'm going to wait until he puts in a full season before I get too excited. 

Not sure how the Twins keep Miranda's bat and Lewis' bat in the lineup every day, but I suppose it's a good problem to have. 

Could Miranda possibly be a trade candidate? 

IMO absolutely not. Trade Santana, he's gone next year anyway, due for a regression, trade value is up & saves money. Playing time at 1B & more ABs will do Miranda good.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO absolutely not. Trade Santana, he's gone next year anyway, due for a regression, trade value is up & saves money. Playing time at 1B & more ABs will do Miranda good.

The Twins are undoubtedly a contender. They aren't going to trade Santana, full stop.

I can imagine Miranda, Julien or Kirilloff going reps at first base if Smooth starts to slump, but Carlos S is as certain to be on this team for the rest of the year as Carlos C is.

Posted

The outfield situation next year is a bit concerning. I assume Max will be gone so that means two of Larnach Wallner and Kiriloff have to produce. Not sure I want to bet on that. I guess you can throw Martin in the mix because we are going to have lots of infielders. Would we roll the dice on these guys knowing that if we need to we could play Castro in left?

Posted
2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I think Wallner is ready to return - not the other two.

I'm willing to wait it out a bit but I'm mostly there with you. After a rough series against the Mudhens, Matt had some good results against the Iowa Cubs.  29 PAs and only 4Ks.

Posted
1 hour ago, Linus said:

The outfield situation next year is a bit concerning. I assume Max will be gone so that means two of Larnach Wallner and Kiriloff have to produce. Not sure I want to bet on that. I guess you can throw Martin in the mix because we are going to have lots of infielders. Would we roll the dice on these guys knowing that if we need to we could play Castro in left?

As they figure it out, Emma Rodriguez will be waiting in the wings.

Posted
55 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins are undoubtedly a contender. They aren't going to trade Santana, full stop.

I can imagine Miranda, Julien or Kirilloff going reps at first base if Smooth starts to slump, but Carlos S is as certain to be on this team for the rest of the year as Carlos C is.

That's right keep Santana, trade Miranda. Answering the text below

Quote

Could Miranda possibly be a trade candidate? 

Keep Santana at 1B no matter what to massage the FO's ego, keep Kiriloff hurt in the OF, keep Julien at 2B when we are a better team with Lee there. Next year we'll look at 1B & say we have no one at 1B with experience & unnecessarily pay for an expensive mediocre defensive 1B FA. We lose Kiriloff for nothing & still wonder what to do with Julien. Miranda will get plenty of time at 1B with another team & become an all-star. This is a realistic scenario I see.

Should we trade Santana? I say yes, definitely before trading Miranda. Will we? probably not. That's why CLE is still 6 games ahead of us after MN battling to stay afloat with a treasure chest of untapped MLB-ready young players begging for time to shine.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I  was very disappointed that FO picked up inferior veterans to block our young players from valuable playing time and forced our temporarily more vulnerable hitter Kiriloff into a more physically demanding position to jeopardize his swing & health.

Where does this come from? And LF! is more demanding than 1st but  "temporarily more vulnerable hitter"  and jeopardize his swing and health? Really? Oh and Cole was a monster in Pittsburgh.

Posted
2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins are undoubtedly a contender. They aren't going to trade Santana, full stop.

I can imagine Miranda, Julien or Kirilloff going reps at first base if Smooth starts to slump, but Carlos S is as certain to be on this team for the rest of the year as Carlos C is.

Absolutely no need to trade either Santana or Miranda and trading Miranda would be actionable malpractice IMHO. Santana, Maranda, and Louis should occupy the 1B/3B/DH spots five games out of six. There are plenty of ABs for all three. It limits the potential DH ABs for others, but who are those others and why would we want to keep ABs available for them? Jeffers is a good hitting catcher who should play more at that position, but his bat doesn't scream get me in the lineup ahead of any of those three. Margot is a platoon player at best, Larnach can play LF well enough to be out there against RH pitching, Castro has found a home at 2B, and using Martin in a 2 to 3 games a week capacity in the outfield for guys resting is perfect for his development. There's absolutely no reason we need to find more ABs for Farmer or Vasquez, that's for sure. Other than maybe Brooks Lee, there really isn't anyone at AAA good enough that you make a trade to open a spot, and I'm not even sure you do that for Lee. I actually don't think we have to worry about getting a spot for any of the AAA players because this great run of health is not gonna last forever and they'll get a shot at some point.  There is no need to make a trade. In fact, making a trade would weaken the team unless we got a frontline starter in return. That is not happening.

I think the plan is clear and makes a lot of sense. Santana, Maranda, and Lewis hold down third base, first base, and DH this year. Miranda works hard at being a better defensive 1B because he takes that position over on an everyday basis next season if Santana isn't back or 2026 at the latest. Either Castro or Brooks Lee is the everyday 2B next year with the other the guy that is thrown into the mix to play some 2B, some 3B, some DH, and and occasional day at SS. In modern baseball, you need six "regulars" to hold down the four infield spots plus the DH. That's particularly true for the Twins because we do not have a surplus of good hitting OFs such that we need to keep the DH spot open for one of them. We have the guys for the IF plus DH slots and there's no reason to get rid of any of them.

Posted
2 hours ago, Linus said:

The outfield situation next year is a bit concerning. I assume Max will be gone so that means two of Larnach Wallner and Kiriloff have to produce. Not sure I want to bet on that. I guess you can throw Martin in the mix because we are going to have lots of infielders. Would we roll the dice on these guys knowing that if we need to we could play Castro in left?

IMO next year will see an OF of Castro, Buxton, and Larnach with Martin the 4th. IF of Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Miranda.

Community Moderator
Posted
54 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Absolutely no need to trade either Santana or Miranda and trading Miranda would be actionable malpractice IMHO. Santana, Maranda, and Louis should occupy the 1B/3B/DH spots five games out of six. There are plenty of ABs for all three. It limits the potential DH ABs for others, but who are those others and why would we want to keep ABs available for them? Jeffers is a good hitting catcher who should play more at that position, but his bat doesn't scream get me in the lineup ahead of any of those three. Margot is a platoon player at best, Larnach can play LF well enough to be out there against RH pitching, Castro has found a home at 2B, and using Martin in a 2 to 3 games a week capacity in the outfield for guys resting is perfect for his development. There's absolutely no reason we need to find more ABs for Farmer or Vasquez, that's for sure. Other than maybe Brooks Lee, there really isn't anyone at AAA good enough that you make a trade to open a spot, and I'm not even sure you do that for Lee. I actually don't think we have to worry about getting a spot for any of the AAA players because this great run of health is not gonna last forever and they'll get a shot at some point.  There is no need to make a trade. In fact, making a trade would weaken the team unless we got a frontline starter in return. That is not happening.

I think the plan is clear and makes a lot of sense. Santana, Maranda, and Lewis hold down third base, first base, and DH this year. Miranda works hard at being a better defensive 1B because he takes that position over on an everyday basis next season if Santana isn't back or 2026 at the latest. Either Castro or Brooks Lee is the everyday 2B next year with the other the guy that is thrown into the mix to play some 2B, some 3B, some DH, and and occasional day at SS. In modern baseball, you need six "regulars" to hold down the four infield spots plus the DH. That's particularly true for the Twins because we do not have a surplus of good hitting OFs such that we need to keep the DH spot open for one of them. We have the guys for the IF plus DH slots and there's no reason to get rid of any of them.

Santana is still not very good against righties. Miranda and Lewis should start every day, but the Twins should be able to find someone else on the roster who can OPS better than .715 against righties. I don't know that they have a better option on the roster at this very second, but generally speaking they should be able to find a 1B/DH who can OPS significantly better than Santana against righties. He shouldn't be an everyday player.

Posted
22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Santana is still not very good against righties. Miranda and Lewis should start every day, but the Twins should be able to find someone else on the roster who can OPS better than .715 against righties. I don't know that they have a better option on the roster at this very second, but generally speaking they should be able to find a 1B/DH who can OPS significantly better than Santana against righties. He shouldn't be an everyday player.

I'm curious as to whom Santana's OPS has changed against RH pitching over time. His OPS is up in May and waaaay up in June compared to April. I suspect but don't know that his OPS against RH pitching is much higher than .715 since May 1 but I can't find that stat anywhere. Does anyone know where that's available?

I agree that if his OPS is a consistent .715- .725 against RH pitching we should be looking for a LH hitting 1B/DH since Miranda hits RH pitching well. I guess .715-.725 is better than average this year, average being .700, but you'd still think we can do better at the plate. I think the big Issues are that Santana is a gold glove candidate at 1B, and Miranda definitely is not, and there really isn't any hitter on the roster that could use more ABs against right-handed pitching. Larnach and Kepler basically play every day against RH pitching. There isn't anyone in AAA that's pounding at the door unless you think Brooks Lee is after a relatively small number of at bats. Now maybe Lee or Wallner could hit better at the DH slot against RH pitching but there is a real risk they can't at this point, particularly with Wallner. So, if you basically take out Santana against right-handed pitching you weaken the defense for a very uncertain upside at the plate. Add to that that I think without knowing for sure that his OPS against RH pitching has probably been closer to .750 or higher since May 1 and that hitting upside becomes even more uncertain. The combination of much better defense and improved hitting is why I think that at this point Santana is an everyday player for this team. 

Community Moderator
Posted
1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm curious as to whom Santana's OPS has changed against RH pitching over time. His OPS is up in May and waaaay up in June compared to April. I suspect but don't know that his OPS against RH pitching is much higher than .715 since May 1 but I can't find that stat anywhere. Does anyone know where that's available?

I agree that if his OPS is a consistent .715- .725 against RH pitching we should be looking for a LH hitting 1B/DH since Miranda hits RH pitching well. I guess .715-.725 is better than average this year, average being .700, but you'd still think we can do better at the plate. I think the big Issues are is Santana is a gold glove candidate at 1B, and Miranda definitely is not, and there really isn't any hitter on the roster they could use more ABs against right-handed pitching. Lanach and Kepler basically play every day against RH pitching. There isn't anyone in AAA that's pounding at the door unless you think Brooks Lee is after a relatively small number of at bats. Now maybe Lee or Wallner could hit better at the DH slot against RH pitching but there is a real risk they can't at this point, particularly with Wallner. So, if you basically take out Santana against right-handed pitching you weaken the defense for a very uncertain upside at the plate. Add to that that I think without knowing for sure that his OPS against RH pitching has probably been closer to .750 or higher since May 1 and that hitting upside becomes even more uncertain. The combination of much better defense and improved hitting is why I think that at this point Santana is an everyday player for this team. 

Totally fair. FYI, his OPS against righties since May 1 is .825. I admit I'm not a huge Santana believer. I don't think he can maintain that kind of production since he hasn't done anywhere close to that well since 2019. I certainly hope he keeps doing it, and I appreciate his defense (especially with Miranda and Lewis throwing it from 3B), but I'm not willing to bet he can maintain that kind of production over the next 3+ months. 

I've been wrong about him so far, and I hope he continues to make me eat crow, but the last 4 years suggest his overall .715 OPS against righties is probably the safer bet. And I hope Lee, Wallner, Julien, or Keirsey can provide better than that. The Twins are in a very weird spot with their roster being so healthy and so many young guys still trying to figure it out. Will be fun to watch who gets chances as injuries start popping up again, or they finally move on from Farmer. I'm excited to see which guys can take a job and run with it. But your point on Santana's recent performance is a very good one, and I must admit he's been doing far better than I expected recently.

Posted
5 hours ago, bighat said:

If I had to choose between the two, I'd take Miranda. I am glad Larnach is contributing but I'm going to wait until he puts in a full season before I get too excited. 

Not sure how the Twins keep Miranda's bat and Lewis' bat in the lineup every day, but I suppose it's a good problem to have. 

Could Miranda possibly be a trade candidate? 

I hope not. 2025 infield could look like this:

1B: Julien/Miranda

2B: Lee

SS: Correa

3B: Lewis/Miranda

Could Rotate DH, Castro could help here and LF, Wallner settles in to RF. 

Posted
3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

…Emma Rodriguez will be waiting in the wings.

Either the east wing or the west wing of the local hospital.

It’s anyone’s guess right now😉

Verified Member
Posted

It is an excellent article. I think the most important point is that it is difficult to judge Larnach and Miranda’s when they were hurt. 

Posted
22 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Where does this come from? #1) And LF! is more demanding than 1st but "temporarily more vulnerable hitter"  and jeopardize his swing and health? Really? #2) Oh and Cole was a monster in Pittsburgh.

#1) Let's put this into perspective. Let's break Santana's wrist & recently recovered but not 100% put him into LF, Let's see how his swing & health holds up? Larnach has a turf toe, a "temporarily more vulnerable hitter" so he's temporarily only DHing.

#2) "And yet as Cole adhered to the organization’s pitching philosophy, prioritizing efficiency and soft contact, the results were only good, not great. “Not the monster we know today,” said Ron Wolforth, founder of Texas Baseball Ranch. Cole struck out less than a batter per inning for the Pirates." 

#3) Well-trained umpire did not give Martin an error but you said he did.

Not everything you don't agree with is false, What is your qualifications in these matters?  Are you more qualified than a well trained umpire in a clear cut decision. Or more qualified than the founder of Texas Baseball Ranch? Cole's striking out less than a batter per inning doesn't make him a monster. Just because you want or are led to believe something is so, doesn't make it so.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

#1) Let's put this into perspective. Let's break Santana's wrist & recently recovered but not 100% put him into LF, Let's see how his swing & health holds up? Larnach has a turf toe, a "temporarily more vulnerable hitter" so he's temporarily only DHing.

#2) "And yet as Cole adhered to the organization’s pitching philosophy, prioritizing efficiency and soft contact, the results were only good, not great. “Not the monster we know today,” said Ron Wolforth, founder of Texas Baseball Ranch. Cole struck out less than a batter per inning for the Pirates." 

#3) Well-trained umpire did not give Martin an error but you said he did.

Not everything you don't agree with is false, What is your qualifications in these matters?  Are you more qualified than a well trained umpire in a clear cut decision. Or more qualified than the founder of Texas Baseball Ranch? Cole's striking out less than a batter per inning doesn't make him a monster. Just because you want or are led to believe something is so, doesn't make it so.

Cole didn't strike out a batter per inning. It was .95. Those were some not good Pirates teams. And they did handle him cautiously.  Just like any organization would. Just because he wasn't known on the national stage doesn't mean baseball people weren't taking note. And if you're insisting that the ball Martin booted in the 1st inning where he moved 3 feet wasn't an error. Then I question your baseball IQ.  Since you're questioning mine. 

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