A Couple of Suitors Definitely Miss Carlos Correa Now

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins landed Carlos Correa on what was effectively a one-year deal, it wasn’t entirely a shock. Free agency had started, and they crafted a contract that set a record and put him in the driver’s seat. When they landed him on a long term deal, it was because a pair of teams got cold feet, and he has proved them wrong.

 

Both the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants backed out on pacts that would have paid Carlos Correa more than $300 million. The years were double-digits, and the reason they said no were medical issues that stemmed from something non-existent for more than a decade. While having dealt with back issues as a big leaguer, the ankle has not been a culprit.

Knowing the medicals and how well he took care of his body in year one, the Twins welcomed him back and got the deal of a lifetime as the World Series winning shortstop cut more than $100 million off of his guarantees. Signed to an eight-year deal, there is reason to believe there is reason to believe he could retire at 35 years old. Minnesota also baked in three four years of team options that would decline in salary as the age increases. Ultimately, he’s here to stay.

It certainly feels like that is a reality Correa has embraced as well. Having put down roots, and recently being adamant to Audra Martin postgame about his love for the Minnesota Twins, the play on the field is now laughing at recent polling results.

Correa could be seen as overrated by his peers due to a jovial personality that has elevated his platform, sometimes above his play. However, the play has only faltered while dealing with injury, and 2024 has him going at a new level. Debuting in Minnesota with a 4.6 fWAR in 2022, plantar fasciitis sapped his effectiveness to the tune of 1.9 fWAR last season while playing in only one less game.

Leading the team with a 2.1 fWAR through 72 games, he is on pace to surpass that first season total, and that is while having missed time with an intercostal strain. Since coming back from the injured list on April 29, Correa has owned an .831 OPS. That tally is over .900 since May 18, and during his current eight game hitting streak it sits at an unfathomable 

The New York Mets were going to move Correa to third base with Francisco Lindor present at shortstop. He posted a 122 OPS+ last season, but is just slightly above league average this year with a 108 OPS+. The Mets have also spent a boatload of money to remain under .500 and be called a terrible team by former Twins pitcher Jorge Lopez.

San Francisco has swung at multiple premium free agents such as Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, while whiffing on all of them. Brandon Crawford is no longer there to play shortstop, and they too are below .500. Rolling out Nick Ahmed and his 72 OPS+, even a Gold Glove probably doesn’t save his overall value. Top prospect Marco Luciano may emerge at some point, but has only put up modest offensive production at the top minor league levels.

Bailing on Correa because of an issue that may have prevented him from playing shortstop years down the road was never a logical thought. Lengthy contracts are always going to come with the negativity that is an aging process, and Correa fending off Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, or some other talent down the line isn’t a logical thought. The hope is that he doesn’t move off the spot for at least half of the deal, and so far he’s provided immense value to a clubhouse he was immediately considered a leader in.

Having already outproduced last year’s valuation in terms of fWAR generated dollars, Correa is on track to earn the Twins something north of $35 million with his play. Signing up for a few more years of that in his prime is something that any team should have gotten on board with, and definitely one that is giving someone like Lewis a front row seat for.

It’s great that Carlos Correa likes Minnesota, but for the organization, it’s even better that the Twins liked him enough to say yes.

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[old nurse]

Backing out on signing any player to a contract lasting well past their age 35 season is the common sense thing to do

[Whitey333]

Carlos has been good for the Twins.  200 million dollar good?  That's still up for debate.  He is on a very hot streak right now.  It's great.  But as all hot streaks go it will simmer and Carlos will return to reality as a good shortstop and good player.  IMO a 3 week hitting binge, while great and well needed, against several bottom feeding teams tempers it to some degree.  I don't think the Mets and Giants have any regrets nor should they.  They saved a lot of money.  The Twins have Correa and are happy.  

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Carlos has been good for the Twins.  200 million dollar good?  That's still up for debate.  He is on a very hot streak right now.  It's great.  But as all hot streaks go it will simmer and Carlos will return to reality as a good shortstop and good player.  IMO a 3 week hitting binge, while great and well needed, against several bottom feeding teams tempers it to some degree.  I don't think the Mets and Giants have any regrets nor should they.  They saved a lot of money.  The Twins have Correa and are happy.  

First, the Mets didn't 'save' any money by not signing Correa, because they replaced him with Francisco Lindor, who is on a 10-year, $341 million contract(!). He makes $34.1 million this year, while Correa makes $33.3 million. Lindor is having a decent year, with a 2.1 WAR in 70 games. However, Correa has posted a 2.5 WAR in just 54 games, 5th best among all MLB shortstops - and the 4 above him have all played at least 70 games.

Sure, the Giants 'saved a lot of money' but the shortstops they have are barely better than replacement players. My guess is they wish they had signed Correa.

[Trov]

16 minutes ago, arby58 said:

First, the Mets didn't 'save' any money by not signing Correa, because they replaced him with Francisco Lindor, who is on a 10-year, $341 million contract(!). He makes $34.1 million this year, while Correa makes $33.3 million. Lindor is having a decent year, with a 2.1 WAR in 70 games. However, Correa has posted a 2.5 WAR in just 54 games, 5th best among all MLB shortstops - and the 4 above him have all played at least 70 games.

Sure, the Giants 'saved a lot of money' but the shortstops they have are barely better than replacement players. My guess is they wish they had signed Correa.

The Mets already signed Lindor to his contract before CC.  It is not like they pivoted from CC to Lindor.  That being said, the article is very short sited to a SSS over a long contract.  To say because he is on a very hot streak that teams that balked are upset when there are years left to play out. I am sure last year they were not upset because he was hurt and played ehh.  This year he has been much better, and closer to the guy we were hoping for.  However, there are still years left to pay him, lets see how he is doing 2 years down the road before we see if the long term deal was good or not. 

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, Trov said:

The Mets already signed Lindor to his contract before CC.  It is not like they pivoted from CC to Lindor.  That being said, the article is very short sited to a SSS over a long contract.  To say because he is on a very hot streak that teams that balked are upset when there are years left to play out. I am sure last year they were not upset because he was hurt and played ehh.  This year he has been much better, and closer to the guy we were hoping for.  However, there are still years left to pay him, lets see how he is doing 2 years down the road before we see if the long term deal was good or not. 

Yeah I agree. Those teams weren't afraid of the short term results which is why they offered the money to begin with. Once they got the medicals and talked to experts a 10 year deal looked like a bad bet.  The Mets offered a modified deal so its not like they were totally out. 

Correa liked the Twins deal the best and here we are.  Still a long ways to go for those teams to be jealous or second guess their decisions.  We'll see how he looks five years out and beyond.  Even then can't fault those teams for mitigating the known risk that was there.

[Karbo]

I can't help but wonder if this is hard for all the Correa haters on this site to watch. I was all in on him when they signed him, and wasn't worried about last season, knowing he was hurt. Yet he played thru it for most of the year. C4 is a beast and I'm glad he signed here.

[chinmusic]

15 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I'm glad he signed here

So am I! But to be honest, last year I was worried.

As far as the Mets and Giants (and their fans) if they are in "sour grapes" mode, it's probably, he must be cheating:)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

When I was in the infantry in Korea in 1968-1969, we did not have heat tabs to cook our c-rations when we spent 4 days and nights at a time at Guard Post Gladys in the DMZ, nor when we went on 24 hour ambush patrols in the DMZ. Therefore we would open a Claymore mine and pull a strawberry- sized hunk of C-4 plastic explosive out of the back of the Claymore, light it and cook our c-rations over the intense flame, stirring the can of c-rations continuously so the "delicious" contents would not burn, while holding onto the folded back top of the can.  The C-4 only exploded when we sent an electrical charge through a long wire from a hand-held clacker, which we squeezed 3-5 times rapidly to send the electric charge through the wire into the C-4, causing an explosion which sent dozens of metal pellets out the front of the Claymore mine. I appreciated the C-4 then and I now appreciate the other C-4, the shortstop, who ignites the Twins at bat and especially in the field with his marvelous play and his explosive arm and his positive energy.  

[LambchoP]

Crazy to think of where the Twins would be without C4 this year. Imagine if we were rolling with Farmer as our shortstop. Correa will come back down to earth eventually, but man this hot streak has been fun to watch. The fact that he's got amazing protection hitting in front of Lewis should definitely benefit him in the long run. As long as Baldelli doesn't constantly change up the lineup..

[bean5302]

I think the question is whether or not San Francisco and New York regret not signing Correa to their initially agreed upon terms. I'd say no. They're both probably okay with the contract they offered not working out.

The Giants did have some sour grapes after Correa and Boras basically blocked them out from further negotiation once San Francisco balked at the 13 year $350MM guarantee offer upon reviewing the medicals.

The Mets took their first shot with a 12 year $315MM bid, but they tried to drop that to 6yrs and $165MM or something like that. A major low-balling for medicals they already knew about. It was pretty dirty.

The Twins are on the hook for a 6 year, $200MM guarantee. Massive difference between the initial offers from the Giants and Mets, but I'm quite sure the Mets would be happy having the 6yrs $165MM deal Correa shunned. There's no way to tell what's going to happen in the future with Correa, but the contract looks good right now.

[Linus]

I really enjoy watching CC play. I also appreciate that he played thru injury last year while others hit the IL. My only concern with his contract is how it fits in the payroll budget going forward if right sizing is the new norm. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Last year was a tad disappointing,  but all things considered with the plantar fasciitis, honestly a pretty solid season. My concern was whether the bat speed was declining.  Last year in the  playoffs and this year that is a negative.  We get 3-4 solid years out of this contract and its a win.  I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the best long term contracts ever signed when the contract is finished.  If you get 1-2 WS  (big dreams right) you could even see him go to Cooperstown in a Twins Jersey.   Him and Lewis is the best 1-2 is the best left side we have had potentially in the entire Twins history.  Lets see how the next couple years go.  

[Brandon]

I am confident the Twins are happy with how his contract played out seeing as how they guaranteed him less money with less years, but with options to reach 10 years and still less money.  But the way to view this contract is the Twins are paying Correa to produce at or near 4 WAR per season.  I imagine as the contract ages it may go to 3.5 WAR or 3 WAR a season, and even less in the option years (this statement is not factoring changing TV revenues).  

after saying all of this, even with how Correa is performing now, I don't think it would be smart to lock him up for 12-14 years like the Mets and Giants were initially doing.  I do think Correa should have negotiated more incentives into his Twins option years of his contract.  but otherwise, I think he got a fair deal.

And I do agree with Ted that as of today both the Mets and Giants and almost every other team for that matter would love to have Correa on their team.  

[roger]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

When I was in the infantry in Korea in 1968-1969, we did not have heat tabs to cook our c-rations when we spent 4 days and nights at a time at Guard Post Gladys in the DMZ, nor when we went on 24 hour ambush patrols in the DMZ. Therefore we would open a Claymore mine and pull a strawberry- sized hunk of C-4 plastic explosive out of the back of the Claymore, light it and cook our c-rations over the intense flame, stirring the can of c-rations continuously so the "delicious" contents would not burn, while holding onto the folded back top of the can.  The C-4 only exploded when we sent an electrical charge through a long wire from a hand-held clacker, which we squeezed 3-5 times rapidly to send the electric charge through the wire into the C-4, causing an explosion which sent dozens of metal pellets out the front of the Claymore mine. I appreciated the C-4 then and I now appreciate the other C-4, the shortstop, who ignites the Twins at bat and especially in the field with his marvelous play and his explosive arm and his positive energy.  

One of the best comments I have ever read, here or elsewhere.  Loved it, tarheel.  And from one old Army guy to another, thanks for your service in what had to be an absolute hell hole.

As for C4, I continue to be most impressed with his defense.  Until seeing him every day, didn't have a clue how good this young man is with the glove and his arm.  Regarding the Mets, everything they have been doing since Cohen bought that team is flat out disgusting.  At least in my opinion.  I am elated every morning when I look at the standings and see them double digit games out of first place.  Love it!

 

[AKTwinsFan]

It's time to bring in more youngsters to play alongside him and buxton. The young talent are doing well on the team following Correas lead.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I think the question is whether or not San Francisco and New York regret not signing Correa to their initially agreed upon terms. I'd say no. They're both probably okay with the contract they offered not working out.

The Giants did have some sour grapes after Correa and Boras basically blocked them out from further negotiation once San Francisco balked at the 13 year $350MM guarantee offer upon reviewing the medicals.

The Mets took their first shot with a 12 year $315MM bid, but they tried to drop that to 6yrs and $165MM or something like that. A major low-balling for medicals they already knew about. It was pretty dirty.

The Twins are on the hook for a 6 year, $200MM guarantee. Massive difference between the initial offers from the Giants and Mets, but I'm quite sure the Mets would be happy having the 6yrs $165MM deal Correa shunned. There's no way to tell what's going to happen in the future with Correa, but the contract looks good right now.

The contract looks pretty good right now based on the way he's playing and you have to remember two things that make it look even better. First, is making 33.3 million this year and will make 37.3 next year, and then his contract starts going DOWN in value. He gets 32.8 million in 2026, 31.8 million in 2027, 31.3 million in 2028, and then vesting options that started 25 million and go all the way down to 10 million. In other words, the Twins are paying premium prices for his premium years but not for his declining years. Unlike a lot of baseball contracts, frankly most of them, the Twins are not looking at a long stretch of paying somebody top $ when they can't really play that well. Also, by the way, with salary elation being what it has been, I expect that $31 million contract in 2028 and not even be in the top 10 or 20 contracts in baseball.

Almost as important, signing Correa made this team relevant on the national scene and relevant to other players. This signing made other players look at the Twins as a real team trying to compete and win, not just some nice team that developed players and then lost them to richer franchises. I really think that will rebound to our benefit in keeping the players we have who will want to play with him and think we can compete with him, and also in getting that second tier of free agents to consider coming to Minnesota. The Twins are never going up pay well enough to compete for the high-end free agents, but that second tier should now have us on their list of potential destinations. That is a big deal if we want to compete.

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. This was a great signing.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Backing out on signing any player to a contract lasting well past their age 35 season is the common sense thing to do

Depends on the player, and the team's ability to finance their payroll, but I do agree that it's a tad premature to be gloating quite yet.  Those teams didn't back out because they didn't think he could put together numbers like we're seeing right now, they backed out due to injury concerns, as I understand it.  Long way to go yet, on the guaranteed part of that contract.  The backers-outers could still be proved right.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I think if C4 was not here this year it would be Lewis at SS and Miranda at 3B.  Farmer would still be a backup IMO.

How many games do you believe Lewis would have played at SS so far this year? 😀  He's appeared in 12 games for the Twins, and that would have left 60 for the shortstop stylings of Kyle Farmer.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

I can't help but wonder if this is hard for all the Correa haters on this site to watch. I was all in on him when they signed him, and wasn't worried about last season, knowing he was hurt. Yet he played thru it for most of the year. C4 is a beast and I'm glad he signed here.

This, 

I don't think people appreciate just how good this guy is.

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, ashbury said:

How many games do you believe Lewis would have played at SS so far this year? 😀  He's appeared in 12 games for the Twins, and that would have left 60 for the shortstop stylings of Kyle Farmer.

Would have been Willi Castro as the SS regular, not Farmer, IMHO, but probably just would have pushed Farmer to 3B. Tough to say how Farmer would have played with regular plate appearances. He's at .286/.364/.367 OPS .731 wRC+ 116 since May 1, and he's league average from April 20th to now. He just started off super ice cold.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I don't know how the Giants feel about missing out on Correa, but I think the Mets have some regret. Money's not a concern for Cohen so even if they did give Correa a 13-year deal and he crapped out on the back end, it wouldn't have a huge impact on Cohen or the Mets' finances. 

The negotiations with the Mets turned into a pissing match between Cohen and Boras. That's when Correa turned back and reached out to Buxton to open the lines of communication with the Twins. The Mets' revised offer was still more than what the Twins were offering but the interest from Correa was always lukewarm at best and when the Mets and Twins had at least somewhat comparable deals on the table, C4 went where he wanted to be.

 

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

... That's when Correa turned back and reached out to Buxton to open the lines of communication with the Twins...

This is misinformation.

Buxton and Correa are friends and kept in contact in the offseason, and after the Mets deal started to fall through, Buxton went poking around on his own, and by the time the wheels were turning in Buxton's "secret mission," Falvey was already having conversations with Boras.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4087172/2023/01/12/carlos-correa-byron-buxton/

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

23 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

This is misinformation.

Buxton and Correa are friends and kept in contact in the offseason, and after the Mets deal started to fall through, Buxton went poking around on his own, and by the time the wheels were turning in Buxton's "secret mission," Falvey was already having conversations with Boras.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4087172/2023/01/12/carlos-correa-byron-buxton/

It isn't misinformation. You think Buxton wasn't prompted by Correa? You think Boras reached out to Falvey without Correa's direction?

[Markdumont25]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

I can't help but wonder if this is hard for all the Correa haters on this site to watch. I was all in on him when they signed him, and wasn't worried about last season, knowing he was hurt. Yet he played thru it for most of the year. C4 is a beast and I'm glad he signed here.

I love my fellow twins fans but, as an aggregate, we seem to have a damned if they do, damned if they don't mentality when it comes to pony-ing up for quality players. There's (rightfully, in my opinion) lots of moaning when the powers that be refuse to make any serious offers for elite players but then when we do actual do go for it there's moaning about how it wasn't the right deal, too long, handicaps filling out the rest of our roster, etc. 

I think it's crazy. You can never predict how the future will unfold but we locked down a premium player at a premium position for a very fair price and I can't see what there is to complain about. In addition to his track record as one of the leagues better players (including several very clutch postseason performances), he's a clubhouse leader, a mentor to our young core and seems to actually want to be here.

Even if his ankle blows out on him in a year or two and he's never the same I don't think there's any question that the risk was worth the reward and this was a great move by our franchise. I can't say for sure if his former suitors regret their decision or not, but we absolutely should not. 

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

It isn't misinformation. You think Buxton wasn't prompted by Correa? You think Boras reached out to Falvey without Correa's direction?

No. Buxton was not prompted to re-open negotiations, and he wouldn't have been prompted to do so since Correa and Boras already had a communications and negotiations pipeline open with the Twins. Correa and Boras are big boys who can handle their own negotiations without Byron Buxton's help, in fact. Had you have read the article I linked, it'd be apparent Buxton did not open negotiations in any way.

From the article (guess I'll actually have to quote the text from the article rather than linking it..), you can see Correa already told Buxton he was returning to the Twins before Buxton could even make a call to the front office, and given that, it's hardly a coincidence Boras was already in contact with Falvey before Buxton was reaching out to his friend in the front office, Dustin Morse.

Quote

 

Still, Buxton didn’t want to be blunt. Though he already knew Correa’s wife, Daniella, was far along in her pregnancy, Buxton innocently asked Correa if the couple was having another child. Correa quickly interrupted Buxton before he could make a second guess.

“(Correa) was like, ‘She’s already pregnant — I’m coming back to the Twins,’” Buxton said by phone Thursday night. “I was like, ‘What?’ I was in the yard, I was yelling and (Buxton’s wife Lindsey) was like, ‘What are you yelling at?’”...

As they discussed the situation, Buxton not only determined Correa wouldn’t become a Met any time soon, but he also realized how much the two-time All-Star wanted to rejoin the Twins after spending the 2022 season with the organization.

Buxton immediately called Dustin Morse, the Twins’ vice president of communications and content, for more insight. He knew Morse, his fantasy football teammate, was close to the situation and could get him up to speed.

“Byron called and asked, ‘So how serious are we?’” Morse said. “I told him, ‘We’re serious.’”

Morse informed Buxton how his call with Correa coincided with a text message from agent Scott Boras earlier in the day to Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, one that gave an indication the talks may have some traction.

 

 

[NotAboutWinning]

The better question is whether C4 is relieved to have spurned the coastal flakes and accepted the proposal from the solid, reliable mid-westerner. He is playing like a happy man.

[Schmoeman5]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

No. Buxton was not prompted to re-open negotiations, and he wouldn't have been prompted to do so since Correa and Boras already had a communications and negotiations pipeline open with the Twins. Correa and Boras are big boys who can handle their own negotiations without Byron Buxton's help, in fact. Had you have read the article I linked, it'd be apparent Buxton did not open negotiations in any way.

From the article (guess I'll actually have to quote the text from the article rather than linking it..), you can see Correa already told Buxton he was returning to the Twins before Buxton could even make a call to the front office, and given that, it's hardly a coincidence Boras was already in contact with Falvey before Buxton was reaching out to his friend in the front office, Dustin Morse.

 

Thanks for that. I remember reading that. I find it amusing that some think a player has influence over the FO decision making. In the NBA. Yes. This isn't the NBA thankfully. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

No. Buxton was not prompted to re-open negotiations, and he wouldn't have been prompted to do so since Correa and Boras already had a communications and negotiations pipeline open with the Twins. Correa and Boras are big boys who can handle their own negotiations without Byron Buxton's help, in fact. Had you have read the article I linked, it'd be apparent Buxton did not open negotiations in any way.

From the article (guess I'll actually have to quote the text from the article rather than linking it..), you can see Correa already told Buxton he was returning to the Twins before Buxton could even make a call to the front office, and given that, it's hardly a coincidence Boras was already in contact with Falvey before Buxton was reaching out to his friend in the front office, Dustin Morse.

 

Did I say that Buxton opened negotiations? 

You can believe what you want. Every free agency decision has layers to it and gray areas. If you think it is linear, then that's your opinion.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

13 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Thanks for that. I remember reading that. I find it amusing that some think a player has influence over the FO decision making. In the NBA. Yes. This isn't the NBA thankfully. 

Reading comprehension. It can be your friend. Did I say that a player had influence over the FO's decision making?

It's 2024. Not 1994. Free agency is anything but a straight line.