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Both the New York Mets and the San Francisco Giants backed out on pacts that would have paid Carlos Correa more than $300 million. Each would have stretched past 10 years, and the reasons each team reneged were medical issues that stemmed from something non-existent for more than a decade. While having dealt with back issues as a big-leaguer, the ankle hardware at which two large-market teams balked has not been a problem for Correa.
Knowing the medicals and how well he took care of his body, the Twins welcomed him back and got the deal of a lifetime, as the World Series-winning shortstop lost more than $100 million in guarantees. Signed to a deal only certain to last six seasons, there is some reason to believe he could retire at 35 years old. Minnesota also baked in four years of team options that would decline in salary as his age increases. Ultimately, he’s here to stay.
It certainly feels like that is a reality Correa has embraced as well. Having put down roots, and recently being adamant to Audra Martin postgame about his love for the Minnesota Twins, the play on the field is now laughing at recent polling results.
Correa could be seen as overrated by his peers due to a jovial personality that has elevated his platform, sometimes above his play. However, he's only failed to produce at a superstar level when he's been compromised by injury, and 2024 has him going at a new level. Debuting in Minnesota with 4.6 fWAR in 2022, plantar fasciitis sapped his effectiveness to the tune of 1.9 fWAR last season while playing in only one fewer game.
Leading the team with a 2.1 fWAR through 72 games, Correa is on pace to surpass that first season total, and that's while having missed time with an intercostal strain. Since coming back from the injured list on Apr. 29, Correa has an .831 OPS. That tally is over .900 since May 18, and during his current hitting streak, it's well into four figures.
The New York Mets were going to move Correa to third base, with Francisco Lindor present at shortstop. He posted a 122 OPS+ last season, but is just slightly above-average this year with a 108 OPS+. The Mets, meanwhile, have also spent a boatload of money to remain under .500.
San Francisco has swung at multiple premium free agents, such as Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, while whiffing on all of them. Brandon Crawford is no longer there to play shortstop, and they, too, are below .500. Rolling out Nick Ahmed and his 72 OPS+, years after his once-superb defense began to decline, the Giants sure could use an elite prime-aged shortstop instead. Top prospect Marco Luciano may emerge at some point, but has only put up modest offensive production at the top minor-league levels.
Bailing on Correa because of an issue that may have prevented him from playing shortstop years down the road was never a logical thought. Lengthy contracts are always going to come with the risk that is the aging curve. The hope is that he doesn’t move off the spot for at least half of the deal, and so far, he’s provided immense value to a clubhouse he was immediately considered a leader in.
Having already outproduced last year’s valuation in terms of fWAR-estimated dollars, Correa is on track to earn the Twins something north of $35 million with his play. There's time left in his prime, and right now, he's healthy. The Giants and Mets appear, for the moment, to have been far too cautious.
It’s great that Carlos Correa likes Minnesota, but for the organization, it’s even better that the Twins liked him enough to say yes. Rocking a .308 batting average and sitting third atop the American League leaderboard, I'd guess a couple of suitors would like his services right about now as well.
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