Why the Twins Were Right to Demote Alex Kirilloff to Minors

[Riverbrian]

Anything official from the Twins on Austin Martin being the guy? 

[terrydactyls]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

No.  That’s not quite right.  IF the left-hand hitter has always hit this particular pitcher pretty well, that goes into the “analytics/gut feel” analysis for both managers.  One manager just chooses a more intuitive sounding term, while the other says, we looked at the numbers and made our decision.  For most (but not all) left-handed batters, this scenario doesn’t really come up very often.  Most of the time an averagish RH batter will do better than most left handers.  

Analytics are a mathematical tool.  The "statistics" of a particular player are absorbed into the database and are a minute piece of data.  Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don't care.  I'm going with how I feel.

[Original_JB]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

No, but all the minor league teams/coaches have a different mission than the Twins (whose mission is to win). They are to develop players, specifically ones that could make it to MLB. Those players play 5 or 6 games per week, bat in the top 4 in the batting order and don't get platooned in the minors.

And I completely understand that; But.... are they being developed properly for the way they will be used on the Twins when they do get promoted? One could argue that the way they are used "up here", that they should be throwing anything and everything at these guys at AAA, moving them around the field, the batting order, whatever, while still maximizing their time on the field so when they do come up they are prepared for "that" aspect, and can focus on hitting pitching that is "a bit" better than what they are used to.

[Original_JB]

13 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Analytics are a mathematical tool.  The "statistics" of a particular player are absorbed into the database and are a minute piece of data.  Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don't care.  I'm going with how I feel.

Blackjack vs. Texas Hold'em

[Rod Carews Birthday]

6 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Analytics are a mathematical tool.  The "statistics" of a particular player are absorbed into the database and are a minute piece of data.  Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don't care.  I'm going with how I feel.

Analysis of anything produces information.  Sometimes that information isn’t easily quantified mathematically (not in this specific case), at which point you can still use the information anecdotally.  VERY frequently anecdotal evidence and mathematical evidence line up (like almost all the time).  It just isn’t always easy to translate one into the other.  

“Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don’t care.  I’m going with how I feel.”  Again.  No.  Managers definitely care.  Gut feel says that I have anecdotal information that will enlighten my decision.  It’s still analytics.  It is (and always has been) a pretty rare manager who would choose a significantly poorer statistical possibility over a greater one.  It’s the seatbelt argument.  Lots of people drive successfully and successfully survive accidents without wearing seatbelts, but the odds are much better if people in the car are wearing seatbelts.  Same thing with people who say they don’t need to go to a doctor or a dentist.  Most people would choose to go to a doctor or dentist when needed and likely would wear a seatbelt on their way there. 

[1985Fan]

The most frustrating play with Rocco’s analytics is pinch hitting in the early innings. Pinch hitting in the fifth or sixth inning when the opposing team brings out a LH relief pitcher. Why he insists on this move when you know the opposing team is going to follow with RH is more than frustrating, it’s just dumb. When this happens in late, close game, the Twins are handcuffed with RH bench bats taking AB’s in the 7-9 innings. 
Definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results. Someone should ask Rocco if he is aware of that. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

True, but it could mean Kirilloff is traded at the deadline if they think he has no future with the team.

Buy low sell high - Kirilloff is in the ‘buy low’ phase at the moment.

[roger]

Is shock to me, however, understand he hasn't been the hitter we all hoped for.

Was at the games in Pittsburgh this past weekend with my son, who lives in Columbus.  A young man was sitting next to him on Saturday.  Turned out he played high school baseball with AK (was their shortstop), who grew up in the Pittsburgh area.  Was an interesting conversation.  For example I didn't realize that AK played center, first and pitcher in high school.  Although I suspect a high percentage of all major league position players did some pitching in high school.

Count me among those who are hopeful Martin is the player returning.  Expect we will see him playing some second base until someone steps up and claims that spot...thinking of you Mr. Lee.

 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

It is becoming a recurring theme. Minor league talent reaches the majors, gets off to a great start, struggles, and then is either benched or demoted. 

It doesn't take MLB pitchers too long to make adjustments. Good hitters make the counter adjustments. Royce Lewis is the outlier. The rest of the Twins' young players do not seem capable of making those counter adjustments.

I wonder why that is...

I don’t exactly disagree on the adjustments or lack of, BUT Wallner & Julien were up a considerable stretch last year…….they got to see the “League’s adjustments” they dipped a bit and then countered………there’s only so many different ways to pitch a hitter with the repertoire each pitcher has - these guys just seem STUCK!

[AKTwinsFan]

They obviously worked on their swings for this last game against the Rockies. Less power and more contact to get the ball in play. It's why the Royals are doing so well. Get on base and steal as much as possible. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Ever since Michael Wacha proclaimed on National TV during the Houston playoff series that Wallner had a hole in his swing -- up and inside fastballs -- big enough to drive a truck through, Wallner has not been the same guy.

But, baseball is a game of adjustments and teams know his weakness as much as he does. 

His adjustment is to let the pitch hit him!!

[TwinsDr2021]

52 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

It’s a situation that doesn’t help young players. When a team calls up a young player to MLB, it’s expected that the player will struggle. No matter how well they played at AAA, players rarely perform well right away or even for a season. The best situation for young players in MLB is to be on a non-contending team that can tolerate below average performance and losing. Those teams have the luxury of patience with young players. Like it or not, young players need patience and teaching.

I disagree with this completely, Young guys on good teams succeed. IMO the best scenario for young guys is to be given a spot and left there to develop and not have guys like that all over the field.

[David Maro]

Signing Santana and playing him over Kirilloff day after day has effected his play.In the off season he thought 1st base was his to play.The situation with Julien was once Polanco was traded 2nd base was his and working on his defense hurt his offense.

[LA Vikes Fan]

This had to happen. Kirilloff was not hitting, was hurting us defensively, and clogging up the lineup by taking at bats away from  Larnach. Larnach is hitting and also needs the development time. I'm actually in the camp that Larnach's improvement this year on breaking balls may mean that he can be solid consistent major league hitter with OPS above .750 and 20 HRs a year. Let's play him at least four days a week and find out if that's possible. 

I actually hope they call up either Martin or even Helman. Our greatest need is at 2B, not at 1B or LF. I see Lewis, Santana, and Miranda as essentially a three-man group covering 3B, 1B, and DH. All three are playing well and deserve to play pretty much every day. Larnach and Margot are actually forming a pretty good platoon tandem in LF. I was one of the guys with a torch and pitchfork to run Margot out of town in May, He has been one of our best hitters since about May 15 along with Miranda.

What we really need is someone that can play 2B and potentially lead off so Castro can go back to his preferred role as a super utility playing four days a week for other guys, including being the backup CF, and doing some pinch hitting and pinch running. I would really think about giving either Martin or Helman some run at 2B since Julien is still not hitting in AAA. Both have high OBPs in AAA (Martin .466, Helman .365), and could potentially be a leadoff hitter. We need a true lead off hitter bad. I would start them in the number nine spot see how they hit but I would play them regularly see if there's something there. The hope would be that whoever we call up can lead off or even be that "second leadoff hitter" in the 9 hole while consistently playing a solid 2B, That would really improve the lineup.

[TwinsDr2021]

54 minutes ago, Road trip said:

 

I also don't understand why so many are ready to give up on Wallner.

 

I am not giving up on him, but it is pretty to easy to understand. Even last year when he was great , He was pretty much unplayable against left handed pitchers.  .119/.196/.286/.481

So you need another roster spot to cover fro him against lefties.

[jorgenswest]

How much should be expected of a player drafted 15th?

Of the 56 players (3 recent picks omitted) chosen with the 15th pick there have been 3 all star level players in Chase Utley, Jim Rice and Chris Carpenter. There have been another 5 solid starters. Trent Grisham is next and might make a sixth. Scott Garrelts maybe should also be in this falling just shy of 10 career WAR. The next two with major league playing time that might approach this group are Sam Frelick and Alex Kirilloff. The three others that I omitted are hopeful prospects.

At best there have been 10 players of 56 that have had solid or better careers. Twenty four never made it to the majors and another 12 that did had 0 or fewer career WAR. If selecting Kirilloff is consider a Twins failure then the failure rate for teams selecting 15th is probably above 80%.

The success rate picking 20th is a little better. There are still ten players with 10 or better career WAR. Trevor Plouffe is next at 7.3. The ten will likely grow with George Kirby or Gavin Lux joining them. After that the next best bet currently in the majors is Trevor Larnach.

The Twins did better than the median in drafting and developing Kirilloff and Larnach. That isn’t good enough for a small to mid market team that needs under control and inexpensive players. They need to get to the top quartile (Trevor Plouffe or better) with these two.

 

[Jocko87]

45 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Analytics are a mathematical tool.  The "statistics" of a particular player are absorbed into the database and are a minute piece of data.  Gut feel says I know what the analytics tell me but I don't care.  I'm going with how I feel.

Incorrect.  Analytics is the process of sorting data points and assigning particular levels of importance to them.  Applied analysis is the process of ranking those levels of importance in a particular situation and choosing the strategy based on your analysis of the most important factors.

Rocco believes in the platoon importance over the "hot" hand, generally.  Lately, Margot has been getting at bats against RH.  Kepler is the lefty most likely to face a lefty.  Many things can rank higher in importance than a specific at bat at any given time.  We don't have those details.

Gut feel is both a data point and an importance level.  It's not typically classified as analytics because I can't put it on a spreadsheet but it is absolutely an analytic measure. 

Old school managers were incredibly analytic, but not quantified.  I chuckle that the nerds basically are at the same place as Earl Weaver 50 years ago.  Pitching, defense and the 3 run home run.  Ol Earl would have loved OPS and OPS+.

Most modern baseball fans confuse analysis for quantification of data.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

I agree with the move, but I'm more puzzled about what happened to Julien. He hit every step of the way and at the bigs last year. How can you just fall off the cliff like that. I'm beginning to think the mental part of the game when you are in a slump really has a lot to do with not being able to come out of the slump. Meaning the pressure you put on yourself

Look at what is going on in Atlanta.  Ozzie Albies is an all-star.  His wRC+ is 92.  Michael Harris / 84  Austin Riley / 82 and Adam Duval 69.   Even Acuna Jr. is just slightly above average.  Were they good last year because the coaching was better?  We should not be surprised by inconsistency.  Makes you appreciate just how hard the game is at that level.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

Look at what is going on in Atlanta.  Ozzie Albies is an all-star.  His wRC+ is 92.  Michael Harris / 84  Austin Riley / 82 and Adam Duval 69.   Even Acuna Jr. is just slightly above average.  Were they good last year because the coaching was better?  We should not be surprised by inconsistency.  Makes you appreciate just how hard the game is at that level.

This.

This idea that growth is linear? Not true.

This idea that there is always a person to blame? Not true.

Stuff happens. Random stuff. Injuries. Coaching changes. Adjustments. Etc......

The most likely, simplest, explanation is that a WHOLE LOT of bad things have happened, injuries, adjustments (by him and pitchers and coaches, and him to play thru injury), inconsistent playing time, etc.....all these things add up. And even then, the simplest explanation is that MLB is HARD, and sometimes things don't work out right away or at all.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I asked this question in the minor league report - what are the hitting coaches doing in MPLS?  Wallner, Kiriloff, Julien have all been sent down for hitting issues.  That is a lot of potential being lost. 

I think they had no choice but to send Alex down - but it is time to assess the massive coaching team for their abilities too. 

Agreed.  Coach 'em up.  These three demotions are as much an indictment of the hitting coaches' abilities at the MLB level.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This.

This idea that growth is linear? Not true.

This idea that there is always a person to blame? Not true.

Stuff happens. Random stuff. Injuries. Coaching changes. Adjustments. Etc......

The most likely, simplest, explanation is that a WHOLE LOT of bad things have happened, injuries, adjustments (by him and pitchers and coaches, and him to play thru injury), inconsistent playing time, etc.....all these things add up. And even then, the simplest explanation is that MLB is HARD, and sometimes things don't work out right away or at all.

Cry me a river and go fix it at AAA.  And reexamine Hernandez, Popkins and Shomon.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

 

I also don't understand why so many are ready to give up on Wallner.

Wallner was unquestionably awful for 25 at bats in April... but it was only 25 at bats (the equivalent of roughly 6 games, were he playing full time...and he wasn't).  He also took a little while to warm up at AAA, but he is back to hitting there now.

Yet despite the awful April and some struggles last September, his career OPS+ at the MLB level is a very solid 126.  On the Twins 40 man roster, that career OPS+ is surpassed only by Royce Lewis (yes, better than Correa, Santana, Buxton, etc).  If Wallner "can't hit", it is a problem for the entire roster.

I'd like to see Wallner get another chance at MLB this year.  To write a young player off after 25 really bad at bats in April seems premature.

Really? He started struggling at the end of last year. Through the playoffs.. He struggled all through ST. And then once the season started, he still struggled. So it was a continuing trend. I posted in a thread that his leash was going to be short and was laughed at. And he's hit I think 10, 12 homers at AAA while hitting in the low .200s and striking out a lot. I'm not sure anyone's giving up on him. It also doesn't mean he's ready to be called back up.

[bean5302]

Kirilloff is not in the same category as a guy like Wallner (352 PA, wRC+ 129) or even Julien (602 PA, wRC+ 124). Julien, by the way, was always at the very edge of sustainable plate approach methodology. There's nothing new about that. Everybody following metrics and Julien knows he was riding a razors edge, but he could still put it back together. Julien's struggles are exactly what scouts and fans alike are concerned about in Emmanuel Rodriguez's somewhat similar results. Also, Julien worked hard at improving his defense, and although I'd still grade him as pretty rough looking, he's definitely improved.

Kirilloff (884 PA, wRC+ 100) was already arb eligible this past offseason, he's 27 with 900 MLB plate appearances across 4 years under his belt. Larnach (830 PA, wRC+ 99) is closer to Kirilloff in terms of how much of a longshot a player might be to turn it around since Larnach had about 700 plate appearances coming into this season, but Larnach has great baseball instincts which allows him to be relatively neutral as a corner outfielder. I never expected Larnach to show what he has this year with the reduced K rate pushing his bat to a different level, but I always accepted Larnach gets the most out of his game his limited athleticism can grant him. Larnach is also still a long shot to keep producing, but he's at least earned a long look. Conversely, Kirilloff continues to drop routine fly balls, position himself incorrectly, and miss infield grounders. On Tuesday, I watched Kirilloff awkwardly misplay a throw to first by Jeffers to catch a runner leading off too far. I cringed as @RpR popped into my head while I thought "Santana makes that play." Of course, after Kirilloff didn't truly want to accept responsibility or say the right things after costing the Twins a playoff game vs. the Astros last year after a defensive flub at 1B, he could have gone all in this offseason learning 1B, but it doesn't seem like he did.

Alex Kirilloff has a very low ceiling, even if he does reach his potential. With a swing designed to produce line drives rather than fly ball home runs, an inability to take walks, no athleticism, and poor instincts, he's at best a 1.5 WAR DH or 2.0 WAR 1B if he improves everything about his game as his absolute ceiling in my honest opinion. I made the Nomar Mazara comp for Alex Kirilloff on another thread. If you look at the two from an expectations and career batting results standpoint, it'd be impossible to tell them apart without a hint at who was who.

Certainly other teams have prospects who are a flash in the pan or struggle from time to time. I saw some pretty ridiculous comps in here, though.
Julio Rodriguez? That Julio Rodriguez? The one with 12 career WAR at age 23 who is wRC+ 96 this year while still on the path for 2.5 WAR campaign?

Jackson Holliday? 36 plate appearances from the 20 year old who the Orioles are manipulating service time rather than demoting because of his results; he's a comp for Twins prospects struggles?

Colt Keith is 22 with 206 PA...

If we want a comp, we can use Spencer Torkelson (1318 PA, wRC+ 91). He's also only 24, but he's probably more of a bust than a guy with a hiccup.

Not all prospects work out. Kirilloff is one of those who is a long shot to ever produce enough with his bat to justify more than a journeyman status like C.J. Cron, but even that level will require Kirilloff to learn to play defense and improve his bat a little. If the Twins DFA'd Kirilloff today, it'd be shortsighted, but it's unlikely they'd regret it.

[joefish]

3 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Alex needs to go back to spraying the ball and quit worrying about launch angle and pulling the ball.  He is a pure hitter, not a power hitter 

Yes. He is good when he is driving the ball into the lf gap. He appears to have forgotten that. Hit the ball where it is pitched. 

He looks pull happy to me too.

 

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Buy low sell high - Kirilloff is in the ‘buy low’ phase at the moment.

His value could be even lower next spring.

[KBJ1]

Sad but needed. We really needed a breakout season from him along with Julien, Wallner & Martin.

So far, none has happened.

Is it time to give Helman, Keirsay or Emma a chance? Can't  hurt.

We need someone to spark this lineup consistently.  

Also need Stewart & Topa back at full strength if we are going anywhere.

This team will continue to tread water until LF, 1B & bullpen get fixed.

[MABB1959]

Since I cannot see on TV, wondering if the young guys have a veteran to get immediate feedback from.  I remember when the kids would go to Cruz and for pitching maybe Santana?  Is there a team chemistry?  

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

What we really need is someone that can play 2B and potentially lead off so Castro can go back to his preferred role as a super utility playing four days a week for other guys, including being the backup CF, and doing some pinch hitting and pinch running.

Please forgive me but this is something I try to correct when I see it.

Super Utility is what Castro is right now. What you describe returning Castro to is closer to Utility.

Super Utility is a player who plays every day at multiple positions. Think Zobrist or Bellinger with the Dodgers when he would move between 1B and the OF.

Castro currently plays everyday at 2B, LF and CF. With the potential to SS if Correa needs a day off or 3B if needed. As long as Castro is playing every day at multiple positions. He's super utility. 

Utility is a player who spends time on the bench waiting to fill in at multiple positions.  

Other than that... I wouldn't mind a 2B addition to this club (what happened to the log jam) and returning Castro to the role you describe. 

[arby58]

4 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I know I sound like a broken record - but if the Twins fired Popkins today, is there another MLB team that would hire him? His resume and track record are non-existent. 

Hitting coaches - can anybody credibly name more than a few at the MLB level? Blaming them or thinking a new one is going to immediately change things - I doubt it. It seems to work better for pitching.

[arby58]

12 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Since I cannot see on TV, wondering if the young guys have a veteran to get immediate feedback from.  I remember when the kids would go to Cruz and for pitching maybe Santana?  Is there a team chemistry?  

I suspect for the Twins it is Correa - and maybe Santana. From what I've observed, teams that are going well always have 'chemistry' and when they're not going well, not so much. The Twins have been really up and down this year, but I suspect it would be better 'chemistry' if Lewis had been playing every day and Julien and Wallner had been performing like the second half of last year.