Yankees 8, Twins 5: Walks Will Haunt, Twins Swept

[Seth Stohs]

Looking to salvage the final game of this three game series and the final game of the season series, the Twins issued too many free passes to Yankees hitters. The are now 2-4 on the current road trip and will face two of the Pirates top starters this weekend in Pittsburgh. 

Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Pablo Lopez - 4.0 IP, 4 H, 7 ER, 6 BB, 4 K (96 pitches, 54 strikes (56.3%), 13 whiffs)
Home Runs: Carlos Correa (5), Christian Vazquez (2). 
Bottom 3 WPA: Pablo Lopez (-0.47), Kyle Farmer (-0.15), Max Kepler/Cole Sands (-0.05)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

Pablo Tries New Strategy 
There is no hiding it at this point. The 2024 season has been rather disappointing for Pablo Lopez. He entered the season with many thinking he was a Cy Young favorite. However, after his outing on Thursday night in Yankees Stadium, his ERA stands at 5.23. 

One might notice that Lopez tried a different strategy in this one. In the bottom of the first, he got a strikeout. Then he walked Juan Soto. He pitched to Aaron Judge but then walked Giancarlo Stanton. The strategy of taking the bat out of two of the Yankees top sluggers worked well that inning as Anthony Rizzo flew out to end a scoreless frame. 

He gave up a two-run homer to Yankees all-defense outfielder Trent Grisham in the second inning. But let’s jump to the third frame. Juan Soto led off with a walk. Lopez then walked Aaron Judge. Realizing that he put a zero on the board when he walked two of those three sluggers in the first inning, he walked Stanton to load the bases. The strategy of not letting those Big 3 beat them is filled in logic! 

He got a strikeout of Rizzo. Unfortunately, with the right side of the infield shifted way up the middle, Gleyber Torres waited back on a pitch and bounced it down the first base line to drive in two runs. After an Austin Wells sacrifice fly drove in Stanton, all three walks came back to score. 

In the fourth inning, Lopez got Soto to fly out, but then he walked Judge. Stanton singled which drove in Judge with the seventh run of the game. 

Having lost the first five games of the season matchup with the Yankees, it is a good idea to think differently, to make adjustments. In this case, walking two of the Big 3 led to zero runs. Walking all three of them to load the bases with nobody out had the result of all three scoring. And when walking just one of the three, the Yankees were limited to two runs. Unfortunately, Stanton drove in one of those runs. 

So, with a small sample size of one game, and three innings of opportunity, it is certainly too soon to declare the strategy a winner or a loser. 

Recommendation: I don’t know what other Twins Daily readers who watched this game think, but I’ve seen enough of the Walk The Big Three strategy. Encourage strikes, just careful, cautious strikes. 

… But For Real…  
A quick glimpse at some of the Statcast numbers from Lopez’s performance doesn’t really give any reason for concern. My first thought was to check the velocity. He averaged 94.6 mph with the fastball on Thursday night, down 0.1 mph from his average this season. He hit 96.7 mph. 

As far as Spin, his fastball, changeup and curveball each were within single digits of their averages. His sweeper spring was increased. The vertical and horizontal breaks were all within one or two inches of their season averages. He got 13 whiffs which isn’t terrible. 

As Lopez said after the game, there are games where he leaves the game shaking his head, wondering what he could have done differently to be better. Not in this game. “It was pretty obvious tonight.”

Six walks and a hit batter. Very much uncharacteristic of Lopez, and therefore, this is a game that is easily flushed and moved on from. 

For years, a segment of Twins fans have called for "accountability." If this isn't it, I don't know what is. 

Speaking of Velocity
Did you see the radar gun show 101 on one of Jorge Alcala’s four-seam fastballs? He had a few 100s to go with it. The 101 was actually 100.7. His average fastball in this game was 99.1 mph over 18 pitches, up 1.7 mph from his season average. His average slider was 91.8 mph, up 2.7 mph from its 89.1 mph average.  In the game, he hit 100.7, 100.3, 100.1, and 100.0.  

But also Speaking of Velocity 
On the other side of the diamond, the Yankees started Marcus Stroman on the mound. He has been pitching very well, particularly of late. On this night, he threw 78 pitches. Only 11 of those pitches touched 90 mph. He threw just two four-seam fastballs, one at 89.3, the other at 88.8 mph. He threw 19 sinkers. They averaged 90.0 mph with a high of 91.0. He threw 21 cutters that averaged 88.1 mph, right on his season average. He threw 13 slurves (avg. 82.2), 12 Sliders (85.7 mph), and 11 splitters (83.6 mph). 

Now, you can probably assume that some pitchers were called the wrong thing. He throws a lot of cutters, sinkers, slurves, sliders and sinkers. The main point is that some forget that a pitcher can be very successful in this league without hitting the upper 90s. However, to do so, you have to do what Stroman has done most of his career and this season in particular. Nothing he throws is straight. All of his pitchers move like crazy in one and sometimes two directions. And, he tunnels very well, with all of his pitchers coming out of the same arm slot. I think he pitches very well to the situations as well. And, he rarely throws a pitch in the middle or upper parts of the strike zone, though with the movement, it’s still hard to square up. But when he knows he needs a ground ball, he works the bottom of the zone really well.  

Now Let's Talk Exit Velocity
Carlos Correa has been rather solid this season. Clearly healthy and able to move more freely, he's been much more consistent at the plate too. 

In the first inning, he hit a ball 106 mph at a 24 degree launch angle. It went 383 feet and into the right-field bleachers. (But it was legit! It would have been a homer in 27 or 30 MLB ballparks.) In the fifth inning, with a runner on third, he hit a sacrifice fly deep enough to drive in a run. That ball was hit a 99 mph. In the eighth inning, he hit the hardest ball of the game but it ended in a force out. He hit that ball 110.4 mph. Of course, he also had a single that registered 66.3 mph of exit velocity.  

Again, just a reminder. Every pitching coach will tell you, hit the ball hard where it's pitched. Hit the ball hard and good things will happen. Every once in a while, a blooper will find a spot on the outfield grass to land safely, but the more often you hit the ball harder, the better your odds. 

If you want to talk about distance, the furthest-hit ball in Thursday night's game came off the bat of Christian Vazquez. His second home run of the season measured in at 404 feet.  

What’s Next? 
The Twins leave The Bronx and head to the Steel City to take on Derek Shelton and the Pittsburgh Pirates. While the Twins will face their staff ace and 2023 Diamond Award winner Mitch Keller, they will have a huge challenge with flame-thrower Jared Jones on Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), they will miss baseball's top pitching prospect this series. Paul Skenes pitches after Jones in the rotation. 

Fri 5:40 pm: RHP Joe Ryan (4-4, 3.38 ERA) vs RHP Mitch Keller (7-3, 3.42 ERA)
Sat 3:05 pm: RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (2-0, 3.05 ERA) vs RHP Quinn Priester (0-5, 4.83 ERA)
Sun 12:35 pm: RHP Bailey Ober (5-4, 4.94 ERA) vs RHP Jared Jones (4-5, 3.25 ERA) 

Postgame Interviews 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet 

	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	TOT
Alcalá	19	0	0	0	30	49
Staumont	0	0	0	20	19	39
Thielbar	9	0	16	0	12	37
Sands	0	0	18	0	16	34
Castillo	0	0	0	32	0	32
Okert	16	0	0	12	0	28
Durán	17	0	0	0	0	17
Jax	14	0	0	0	0	14

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[VivaBomboRivera!]

Silver lining - Four months of the season left and we don't play the Yankees again.🥸

[glunn]

Another sickening loss, and the Twins' starters are not looking good.

[Mark G]

I do wish Lopez had gone a little deeper; the bullpen chart doesn't look good for tomorrow night.  I would have to guess that Alcala and Staumont won't be available unless it is an emergency, and I question Sands as well (not to mention maybe Thielbar?)   Yes, we have Duran and Jax itching to go, but you have to get to them to mean anything so Ryan needs a good, and deep, start.  That will not only get us going tomorrow, but gear us up for the weekend.  Come on, Joe!!

[Peter]

Yankees are done with!!!  Schedule will get better. Let’s sweep pirates and get back to winning! 

[Mark G]

24 minutes ago, Peter said:

Yankees are done with!!!  Schedule will get better. Let’s sweep pirates and get back to winning! 

You're right; the schedule does get much better.  16 of the next 19 games against teams below .500, with the Athletics and Rockies being 10 of them.  Even Tampa doesn't scare me as much as they used to.  I can see another 12 game winning streak on the horizon.............well, close maybe.  😉

[h2oface]

"Again, just a reminder. Every pitching coach will tell you, hit the ball hard where it's pitched. Hit the ball hard and good things will happen. Every once in a while, a blooper will find a spot on the outfield grass to land safely, but the more often you hit the ball harder, the better your odds."

NOW I see what is going on. We have the pitching coach coaching the batters! 😵

And there is a two walk per inning strategy by the "ace"? That's how your #1 handles the Yankee lineup? On purpose? I hope that was satire.

[Doctor Wu]

This may be slightly off topic, but Glunn mentioned the obvious starting pithing woes of late, and with Tampa Bay coming up on our schedule soon, that reminded me of how they somehow, miraculously, turned Zack Littell into a pretty good starting pitcher. What are the odds that the Twins can pluck someone out of our bullpen and turn them into a better than average starter? And who would it be? For several years many posters have gone back and forth on the merits of turning Duran back into a starter, but other than him, who else might be a target? Or is this just a crazy idea?

[PatG]

Yankees are given 3.5 outs per inning against the Twins......

MLB loves the Yanks

[Western SD Fan]

I'm not sure what this makes me as a Twins fan, but I had penciled in these losses before the series started.  What I had hoped for was that these games would be competitive and not completely derail the team like it did when the Yankees came to Minnesota.  

A few things to look forward to:  we didn't lose much ground to the Royals or Guardians, the Pirates pitching staff is just as beat up as ours after their series with the Dodgers, and we are hopefully seeing Correa get on track.  That will add to Lewis and Kepler so we have a better balanced lineup.  Please let Castro play 2B so we don't have to see Farmer anymore.

Our chance is in front of us.  Opponents have a .436 winning percentage between now and the ASG.  

[FanFromPhilly]

Anyone know why Lewis didn't play?

[mikelink45]

A season of streaks - what does it really mean about the kind of team we are.  Obviously we do not want to see the Yankees in the Playoffs, but where would we rank among the really good teams - the Yankees, the Guardians, Orioles, Seattle?  Overall the AL does not look that strong this year and I do not know what will happen with KC.  But we should make the playoffs again.  We are currently number 6 overall in the Wildcard standings.  I just don't know how to assess this team.  We now have exactly 100 games left so plenty of time, but I am not confident going to the Pirates who are much better this season than for the last decade.

Lopez has definitely not been an Ace for us. Paddock is not someone I would count on in a big game.  Ryan, SWR, Ober are the top three currently and Ober has not been consistently good this year - too many poor games.  The rotation just isn't what we had last year and I am not sure it is a group that can carry us through the playoffs.  Will Festa come up and rescue us?  

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, FanFromPhilly said:

Anyone know why Lewis didn't play?

Planned day off, Rocco said there will be a few of them in the first 10 games or so. Paraphrasing what they showed on the broadcast last night.

EDIT - Addition, he also said he would have to talk the doctor/trainer (I think he called the guy by name) is Lewis was even available for the game last night)

Which of course IMO was ridiculous to give him and Buxton a day off on the same day. Not because Buxton is good right now, but that means Castro to CF and Farmer to 2B, Miranda to 3B. They could have given Buxton the rest in game 1 and Lewis in game 3. 

On top of they had first and second with one out with  Jeffers the DH up, who has been cold for a bit, would have been a perfect time to pinch hit Lewis, but instead Lewis ends the game in the on deck circle.

One more thing I sure hope Lopez is dealing with an injury or something, the Twins can't win with the type of year he is having.

[Western SD Fan]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

This may be slightly off topic, but Glunn mentioned the obvious starting pithing woes of late, and with Tampa Bay coming up on our schedule soon, that reminded me of how they somehow, miraculously, turned Zack Littell into a pretty good starting pitcher. What are the odds that the Twins can pluck someone out of our bullpen and turn them into a better than average starter? And who would it be? For several years many posters have gone back and forth on the merits of turning Duran back into a starter, but other than him, who else might be a target? Or is this just a crazy idea?

I actually don't remember the last starting pitcher that the Twins turned around as a reclamation project.  Maybe Phil Hughes if you would call him that? And I think he just needed out of NYY as opposed to being a reclamation project. Odorizzi is more the example where they had a decent pitcher and made him a better pitcher by tweaking mechanics and focusing on what he does best.  My position has not changed from the last few years where we really need a swingman in the bullpen that can eat innings and not burn out the bullpen.  Maybe that's what Varland or Festa should be shooting for in the second half.  Otherwise, we really need a starting pitcher and I'm not sure we are ready to part with the prospects it will take to get that done.

[Aggies7]

Don’t worry, the twins will get fat on some of the bad teams they have coming up, and trick us all again in to believing that they’re a really good team.

[rv78]

44 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

54 minutes ago, FanFromPhilly said:

Anyone know why Lewis didn't play?

Planned day off, Rocco said there will be a few of them in the first 10 games or so. Paraphrasing what they showed on the broadcast last night.

Which of course IMO was ridiculous to give him and Buxton a day off on the same day. Not because Buxton is good right now, but that means Castro to CF and Farmer to 2B, Miranda to 3B. They could have given Buxton the rest in game 1 and Lewis in game 3. 

Rocco prevents injuries by resting players. He's got ESP so he knows which day the injury is going to happen. It kept Lewis from hurting himself again. As for Buxton, he needed another day of rest. The off day on Monday wasn't enough for a super athletic player like Buxton. I wonder why Aaron Boone doesn't rest his best players more? That team is going to implode by September when they are all too exhausted to play. 

[USAFChief]

I cannot take this team seriously. 

 

[MABB1959]

8 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Silver lining - Four months of the season left and we don't play the Yankees again.🥸

Unless they make the playoffs.

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Lopez has definitely not been an Ace for us. Paddock is not someone I would count on in a big game.  Ryan, SWR, Ober are the top three currently and Ober has not been consistently good this year - too many poor games.  The rotation just isn't what we had last year and I am not sure it is a group that can carry us through the playoffs.  Will Festa come up and rescue us?  

The sad thing is the Twins won't spend on a good pitcher they may try to get one that probably wouldn't be any better than Lopez.  

[Whitey333]

That's why amongst many other reasons I don't like Rocco.  Resting Lewis after 2 days!  2 days in which he hit home runs.  I'm sure the previous 58 days he didn't face major league pitching must have worn him out.  It was a terrible starting lineup.  Plus add in another terrible performance by the 18 million per year Lopez and you have bad results.  Plus we keep sending up that great pinch hitter Margo who the Yankee broadcasters happily mention he is 0 for 16 in theses last pinch hitting stints.  Rocco is too stubborn to incorporate any actual baseball managing with his analytical show.  One of the absolute worst managers the Twins have ever had.

[Dave The Dastardly]

40 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Don’t worry, the twins will get fat on some of the bad teams they have coming up, and trick us all again in to believing that they’re a really good team.

The Twins are one of the bad teams. That's how they keep beating themselves.

[Old Twins Cap]

We will have to content ourselves with recalling, very fondly, the game last year at Yankee stadium when the Twins scored (was it?) 10 runs in the first inning off of Gerrit Cole.

That was a great game.

[Dave The Dastardly]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Planned day off, Rocco said there will be a few of them in the first 10 games or so. Paraphrasing what they showed on the broadcast last night.

Which of course IMO was ridiculous to give him and Buxton a day off on the same day. Not because Buxton is good right now, but that means Castro to CF and Farmer to 2B, Miranda to 3B. They could have given Buxton the rest in game 1 and Lewis in game 3. 

On top of they had first and second with one out with  Jeffers the DH up, who hasn't cold for a bit, would have been a perfect time to pinch hit Lewis, but instead Lewis ends the game in the on deck circle.

One more thing I sure hope Lopez is dealing with an injury or something, the Twins can't win with the type of year he is having.

"Planned day off" has to be one of the dumbest baseball strategies I've ever seen. AI now predicting which day a player might get injured?

[TwinsDr2021]

10 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

 Plus we keep sending up that great pinch hitter Margo who the Yankee broadcasters happily mention he is 0 for 16 in theses last pinch hitting stints.  Rocco is too stubborn to incorporate any actual baseball managing with his analytical show.  One of the absolute worst managers the Twins have ever had.

I have the ability to watch the home teams broadcast, and the Yankees announcers said it last night and just about every others announcers have alluded to the pinch hitting and how by the time the end of the game comes around the other team gets to set the the match up. They actually asked it in the form of a question to the Twins, Do the Twins not know the best relief pitchers we (yanks) have are right handed and pinch hitting for the lefites in the 5th and 6th inning sets up the advantage for us?

[mickster]

1 hour ago, FanFromPhilly said:

Anyone know why Lewis didn't play?

or Buxton, or Jeffers.    I understand Vasquez hit a bomb and Jeffers needs days off, so that I can live with.  But Buxton and Lewis off on the same day has me questioning Rocco more and more.   I get keeping them healthy, and if you are thinking we can't beat the Yankees anyway, then ok.   But they have off days, and you can rest one before the off day and one after and better manage your lineup.    Plus stop it with all of the early pinch hitting!!

 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I have the ability to watch the home teams broadcast, and the Yankees announcers said it last night and just about every others announcers have alluded to the pinch hitting and how by the time the end of the game comes around the other team gets to set the the match up. They actually asked it in the form of a question to the Twins, Do the Twins not know the best relief pitchers we (yanks) have are right handed and pinch hitting for the lefites in the 5th and 6th inning sets up the advantage for us?

I've been pounding on this since last season. 

It's such a glaring, obvious, incredibly stupid mistake. And he gets abused by opposing managers over, and over, and over again. 

We need a MLB manager. 

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I've been pounding on this since last season. 

It's such a glaring, obvious, incredibly stupid mistake. And he gets abused by opposing managers over, and over, and over again. 

We need a MLB manager. 

I am not a fan, and haven't been since 2019, but I don't think replacing him changes much of what is going on, sadly.

[Doctor Gast]

Lopez having SOs taken away from him, having some pitches not going his way, which piled up his pitch count, Not having Lewis or Buxton in the line-up, having RH hitters that shouldn't be facing RHPs, facing RHPs. Lopez didn't complained or let it effect him on the mound still he took accountability of the outcome of his pitching. What a breathe of fresh air! Wish FO took note.

[Aggies7]

39 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I have the ability to watch the home teams broadcast, and the Yankees announcers said it last night and just about every others announcers have alluded to the pinch hitting and how by the time the end of the game comes around the other team gets to set the the match up. They actually asked it in the form of a question to the Twins, Do the Twins not know the best relief pitchers we (yanks) have are right handed and pinch hitting for the lefites in the 5th and 6th inning sets up the advantage for us?

The Yankees broadcast criticized the decision making over much of the series. 

[Rhyno006]

This team is so frustrating. It seems like we get a little offense going and the pitching stinks, or vice versa.