Twins Video
Box Score
SP: Pablo Lopez - 4.0 IP, 4 H, 7 ER, 6 BB, 4 K (96 pitches, 54 strikes (56.3%), 13 whiffs)
Home Runs: Carlos Correa (5), Christian Vazquez (2).
Bottom 3 WPA: Pablo Lopez (-0.47), Kyle Farmer (-0.15), Max Kepler/Cole Sands (-0.05)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
Pablo Tries New Strategy
There is no hiding it at this point. The 2024 season has been rather disappointing for Pablo Lopez. He entered the season with many thinking he was a Cy Young favorite. However, after his outing on Thursday night in Yankees Stadium, his ERA stands at 5.23.
One might notice that Lopez tried a different strategy in this one. In the bottom of the first, he got a strikeout. Then he walked Juan Soto. He pitched to Aaron Judge but then walked Giancarlo Stanton. The strategy of taking the bat out of two of the Yankees top sluggers worked well that inning as Anthony Rizzo flew out to end a scoreless frame.
He gave up a two-run homer to Yankees all-defense outfielder Trent Grisham in the second inning. But let’s jump to the third frame. Juan Soto led off with a walk. Lopez then walked Aaron Judge. Realizing that he put a zero on the board when he walked two of those three sluggers in the first inning, he walked Stanton to load the bases. The strategy of not letting those Big 3 beat them is filled in logic!
He got a strikeout of Rizzo. Unfortunately, with the right side of the infield shifted way up the middle, Gleyber Torres waited back on a pitch and bounced it down the first base line to drive in two runs. After an Austin Wells sacrifice fly drove in Stanton, all three walks came back to score.
In the fourth inning, Lopez got Soto to fly out, but then he walked Judge. Stanton singled which drove in Judge with the seventh run of the game.
Having lost the first five games of the season matchup with the Yankees, it is a good idea to think differently, to make adjustments. In this case, walking two of the Big 3 led to zero runs. Walking all three of them to load the bases with nobody out had the result of all three scoring. And when walking just one of the three, the Yankees were limited to two runs. Unfortunately, Stanton drove in one of those runs.
So, with a small sample size of one game, and three innings of opportunity, it is certainly too soon to declare the strategy a winner or a loser.
Recommendation: I don’t know what other Twins Daily readers who watched this game think, but I’ve seen enough of the Walk The Big Three strategy. Encourage strikes, just careful, cautious strikes.
… But For Real…
A quick glimpse at some of the Statcast numbers from Lopez’s performance doesn’t really give any reason for concern. My first thought was to check the velocity. He averaged 94.6 mph with the fastball on Thursday night, down 0.1 mph from his average this season. He hit 96.7 mph.
As far as Spin, his fastball, changeup and curveball each were within single digits of their averages. His sweeper spring was increased. The vertical and horizontal breaks were all within one or two inches of their season averages. He got 13 whiffs which isn’t terrible.
As Lopez said after the game, there are games where he leaves the game shaking his head, wondering what he could have done differently to be better. Not in this game. “It was pretty obvious tonight.”
Six walks and a hit batter. Very much uncharacteristic of Lopez, and therefore, this is a game that is easily flushed and moved on from.
For years, a segment of Twins fans have called for "accountability." If this isn't it, I don't know what is.
Speaking of Velocity
Did you see the radar gun show 101 on one of Jorge Alcala’s four-seam fastballs? He had a few 100s to go with it. The 101 was actually 100.7. His average fastball in this game was 99.1 mph over 18 pitches, up 1.7 mph from his season average. His average slider was 91.8 mph, up 2.7 mph from its 89.1 mph average. In the game, he hit 100.7, 100.3, 100.1, and 100.0.
But also Speaking of Velocity
On the other side of the diamond, the Yankees started Marcus Stroman on the mound. He has been pitching very well, particularly of late. On this night, he threw 78 pitches. Only 11 of those pitches touched 90 mph. He threw just two four-seam fastballs, one at 89.3, the other at 88.8 mph. He threw 19 sinkers. They averaged 90.0 mph with a high of 91.0. He threw 21 cutters that averaged 88.1 mph, right on his season average. He threw 13 slurves (avg. 82.2), 12 Sliders (85.7 mph), and 11 splitters (83.6 mph).
Now, you can probably assume that some pitchers were called the wrong thing. He throws a lot of cutters, sinkers, slurves, sliders and sinkers. The main point is that some forget that a pitcher can be very successful in this league without hitting the upper 90s. However, to do so, you have to do what Stroman has done most of his career and this season in particular. Nothing he throws is straight. All of his pitchers move like crazy in one and sometimes two directions. And, he tunnels very well, with all of his pitchers coming out of the same arm slot. I think he pitches very well to the situations as well. And, he rarely throws a pitch in the middle or upper parts of the strike zone, though with the movement, it’s still hard to square up. But when he knows he needs a ground ball, he works the bottom of the zone really well.
Now Let's Talk Exit Velocity
Carlos Correa has been rather solid this season. Clearly healthy and able to move more freely, he's been much more consistent at the plate too.
In the first inning, he hit a ball 106 mph at a 24 degree launch angle. It went 383 feet and into the right-field bleachers. (But it was legit! It would have been a homer in 27 or 30 MLB ballparks.) In the fifth inning, with a runner on third, he hit a sacrifice fly deep enough to drive in a run. That ball was hit a 99 mph. In the eighth inning, he hit the hardest ball of the game but it ended in a force out. He hit that ball 110.4 mph. Of course, he also had a single that registered 66.3 mph of exit velocity.
Again, just a reminder. Every pitching coach will tell you, hit the ball hard where it's pitched. Hit the ball hard and good things will happen. Every once in a while, a blooper will find a spot on the outfield grass to land safely, but the more often you hit the ball harder, the better your odds.
If you want to talk about distance, the furthest-hit ball in Thursday night's game came off the bat of Christian Vazquez. His second home run of the season measured in at 404 feet.
What’s Next?
The Twins leave The Bronx and head to the Steel City to take on Derek Shelton and the Pittsburgh Pirates. While the Twins will face their staff ace and 2023 Diamond Award winner Mitch Keller, they will have a huge challenge with flame-thrower Jared Jones on Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), they will miss baseball's top pitching prospect this series. Paul Skenes pitches after Jones in the rotation.
Fri 5:40 pm: RHP Joe Ryan (4-4, 3.38 ERA) vs RHP Mitch Keller (7-3, 3.42 ERA)
Sat 3:05 pm: RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (2-0, 3.05 ERA) vs RHP Quinn Priester (0-5, 4.83 ERA)
Sun 12:35 pm: RHP Bailey Ober (5-4, 4.94 ERA) vs RHP Jared Jones (4-5, 3.25 ERA)
Postgame Interviews
Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
| SUN | MON | TUE | WED | THU | TOT | |
| Alcalá | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 49 |
| Staumont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 19 | 39 |
| Thielbar | 9 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 37 |
| Sands | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 16 | 34 |
| Castillo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 32 |
| Okert | 16 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 28 |
| Durán | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Jax | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
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