How Much Have Twins' Budget-Conscious Offseason Decisions Hurt?

[Adam Friedman]

The Minnesota Twins cut their Opening Day payroll by roughly $30 million from 2023 to 2024, even as they try to sustain their reign in the AL Central. Which offseason decisions were constrained by that cut, and has it really hurt them?

Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the offseason, Twins Daily, Twins Twitter, and other commentators wanted a variety of free agents and trade targets that seemed somewhat attainable for the Twins. Due to the payroll limitations, the front office chose to go with a cheaper alternative to all of those players. How are those alternatives doing in 2024, relative to their more expensive counterpart?

Carlos Santana vs. Rhys Hoskins
Carlos Santana Through 5/14: .213/.287/.404 96 wRC+
Rhys Hoskins Through 5/14: .233/.340/.474 131 wRC+

For a team with so much left-handed hitting talent and a reasonably flexible budget, Rhys Hoskins seemed like an obvious fit for the Twins, and Cody Schoenmann astutely wrote that up here at Twins Daily in January. Hoskins brings a track record of above-average hitting in every single year of his career and (as a lefty-masher who's been good against righties, too) would have diversified a group with a lot of left-handed hitters, but it was not to be.

Hoskins signed a two-year, $34-million deal with Milwaukee—with a player option in the second year and a mutual option in 2026. This deal may have been palatable for the Twins in a typical offseason, but not this year. A player option coming off a torn ACL and a salary approaching $20 million didn't make sense for a cost-cutting team.

They landed with Carlos Santana instead, and he's been fine, accounting for his recent surge. He's not close to Hoskins as a hitter, but the Twins might point out he's a much better defensive first baseman. The defense isn't enough to close the significant offensive gap, so the Twins would be much better off with Hoskins. It's noteworthy that Hoskins is now on the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain, but he should be back in a month or less, and we shouldn't assume that Santana will stay healthy, either.

Tommy Pham/Michael A. Taylor/Adam Duvall vs. Manuel Margot
Manuel Margot Through 5/14: .177/.241/.222, 42 wRC+, -2 DRS
Tommy Pham Through 5/14: .308/.357/.446 131 wRC+, -3 DRS
Michael A. Taylor Through 5/14: .225/.270/.284 58 wRC+, 5 DRS
Adam Duvall Through 5/14: .220/.309/.356 91 wRC+, 1 DRS

The market for right-handed outfielders moved exceptionally slowly, and the Twins were massive losers in that market. Instead of waiting it out and risking not having sufficient Byron Buxton insurance in center field, they traded for Manuel Margot, who has been one of the worst players in the game.

Pham, Taylor, and Duvall are all making the same or less than the Twins are paying Margot, even with Tampa and the Dodgers retaining some of his salary. The Twins clearly misread the market and, with their constraints, thought they couldn't afford any of the superior alternatives, so they brought in Margot. He has not hit at all, and there are no signs of him turning a corner—not to mention, the Twins haven't trusted him in center field with any regularity.

The Margot mistake has something to do with the budget constraints and a mistake by the front office, but any of Margot's alternatives would be better than him offensively, defensively, or both. So, it is another position where the Twins' harsh budget constraints prevented a productive acquisition and led to far inferior production.

Michael Lorenzon/Sonny Gray/Corbin Burnes vs. Simeon Woods Richardson/Louie Varland
Michael Lorenzon Through 5/14: 36 IP, 3.75 ERA, 5.11 FIP
Sonny Gray Through 5/14: 41.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Corbin Burnes Through 5/14: 53.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.54 FIP
Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland Combined Through 5/14: 41.2 IP, 5.61 ERA, 5.87 FIP

After having the best starting rotation in the American League in 2023, the Twins would unlikely repeat their performance in 2024. Twins fans and pundits hoped they would at least make an effort to put together another great rotation in the offseason, but they did just about nothing--due, again, to budget constraints.

The only rotation addition was Anthony DeSclafani, who had a poor 2023 and will miss the entire season after having arm surgery this spring. After they learned of his injury, they still decided to roll with internal options—like Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland—to round out the rotation in the fifth spot, with Chris Paddack (returning from his own serious injury) fourth. Varland was terrible before his demotion, but Woods Richardson has been good thus far.

Had the Twins had a typical budget increase, bringing back Sonny Gray would've been on the table--although this regime has shown little interest in paying free-agent starters on multi-year deals.

Alternatively, they could've hit the trade market for a somewhat expensive pitcher nearing free agency like Corbin Burnes. The Twins had reported interest in the former Cy Young winner, but such a trade was undoable with their budget constraints—even setting aside a considerable prospect price. Gray and Burnes have been much better than the internal choices, and both could start a playoff game. They also would, of course, boost the depth of a rotation needing it.

Even if they didn't want to go big game hunting, they could've added veteran depth to ensure that Varland wouldn't be relied upon immediately. Michael Lorenzon made perfect sense for such a move, at around $4.5 million. Under normal circumstances, this front office would be all over that contract on a one-year deal, but not with payroll cuts. He's nothing spectacular, but he's better than Varland and would have added much-needed depth to this rotation.

The Verdict
Free agency can be risky business, so there was no guarantee that the Twins' payroll cuts would hurt them, but they have. They've missed out on production at multiple spots in the lineup and unnecessarily capped the rotation's depth and upside. The team is still very competitive, so hopefully, the constraints don't hamper their efforts at the trade deadline.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

The Twins reducing payroll has hurt this team in countless ways, both on the field and off.  They went from being a WS contender to a playoff hopeful in a matter of weeks.  Everyone knows it, yet the Minnesota nice/bi-polar fans have done nothing to let management know about it.

I don't want to hear about their current record.  If it wasn't for a two-week stretch against some of the worst teams in the league, this team would only be a few games ahead of the White Sox.

As a long time Twins fan, this year has been one of the hardest to stomach.  Especially as management has no desire or inclination to repair fan relations (TV games anyone?).

[LambchoP]

The timing of the cut in payroll felt like a slap in the face to us fans. We finally win a playoff series and look to be a perennial playoff contender with a few additions, yet they do the opposite. Now with blackouts still a thing and this new TV debacle, it's becoming increasingly difficult to be a twins fan:(

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I hate to say it, but more times than not you get what you pay for.  Shame on ownership!

Ownership doesn't sign players. They might approve a specific signing over budget, but Derek Falvey brought in who he brought in.

[farmerguychris]

16 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I hate to say it, but more times than not you get what you pay for.  Shame on ownership!

Spot on.  However, I would expect the comments on this subject are much nicer than they would have been 3 weeks ago.

[tony&rodney]

The roster payroll discussion has been worked to death.

The offseason was tough because some poor decisions were made on trades and player acquisitions. I have no idea what plan Falvey had last offseason or if he had some PTSD from previous years but the Twins were risk adverse in trades and surprisingly impatient as well. What is done is done.

Nevertheless, the current team has enough positives to compete for an AL Central Division title. The time to forget the past offseason has arrived even if one had a complete distaste for those actions of the organization. While the team is less interesting than hoped, it isn't like any thoughts from here make a difference.

 

[farmerguychris]

The owners have the team they deserve.  On the other hand, the fans deserve better - that amazing support at the home playoff games should have been a tide the owners couldn't wait to ride on.  Instead they squashed it.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

The owners have the team they deserve.  On the other hand, the fans deserve better - that amazing support at the home playoff games should have been a tide the owners couldn't wait to ride on.  Instead they squashed it.

Ownership is fine. They didn't force Falvey to blow $20MM of payroll capacity on guys like Margot, Santana, Farmer, and Desclafani. Falvey had the necessary resources, he just wasted them. Also, it wouldn't be a terrible thing if fans showed up sometime. The Twins have ranked higher in payroll than attendance for years now.

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Ownership is fine. They didn't force Falvey to blow $20MM of payroll capacity on guys like Margot, Santana, Farmer, and Desclafani. Falvey had the necessary resources, he just wasted them. Also, it wouldn't be a terrible thing if fans showed up sometime. The Twins have ranked higher in payroll than attendance for years now.

The Twins--fairly or unfairly--have a pretty strong reputation as "cheap."

You don't think announcing a massive payroll cut days after the season ends is going to undercut every ounce of goodwill they earned last postseason?

Ownership absolutely earned the tepid interest they're getting. Add in the fumbled TV contract, blaming fans, etc etc.

Forget the Falvine mistakes. The real damage was done by Ownership. 

[Doctor Gast]

25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Ownership is fine. They didn't force Falvey to blow $20MM of payroll capacity on guys like Margot, Santana, Farmer, and Desclafani. Falvey had the necessary resources, he just wasted them. Also, it wouldn't be a terrible thing if fans showed up sometime. The Twins have ranked higher in payroll than attendance for years now.

IMO we'd be better off staying pat than spending on new acquisitions (that contributed little to none) because we had better options in-house. The only position we really needed was a top SP that we could pick up at the deadline. 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think they match the price the Orioles paid, so I'm not sure that's a fair comparison. 

The biggest mistake is Margot, though the only one I pointed out before the season was Santana..... So what do I know. I didn't point out the pitching because I'm not sure who they realistically sign, budget cut or not. 

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The Twins--fairly or unfairly--have a pretty strong reputation as "cheap."

You don't think announcing a massive payroll cut days after the season ends is going to undercut every ounce of goodwill they earned last postseason?

Ownership absolutely earned the tepid interest they're getting. Add in the fumbled TV contract, blaming fans, etc etc.

Forget the Falvine mistakes. The real damage was done by Ownership. 

Yeah, I can't fault your take at fans being angry with the announcement since I was certainly pissed after renewing season tickets.

Still, Falvey had more than enough payroll at $130MM to handle the needs of the roster. I'd prefer ownership terminating Dave St. Peter at this point. The TV debacle has been astoundingly awful. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

IMO we'd be better off staying pat than spending on new acquisitions (that contributed little to none) because we had better options in-house. The only position we really needed was a top SP that we could pick up at the deadline. 

That's my general feeling....

[Riverbrian]

The payroll was being cut.

Did the decision to cut payroll hurt the team directly? No way of knowing that since there is no guarantee that the player or players they could have spent money on would be getting the job done. I know that I was hoping that they could add an impact bat to the core of players coming back... but they didn't... they substracted one instead.  

That subtraction was replaced by multiple players... so in regards to the question... the only thing that I can currently work with directly is the payroll cut of Polanco and the reallocation of those Polanco dollars to the additions of DeSclafini, Topa, Santana and Margot. 

As of May 16 2024... Santana is performing on par with Polanco but the roster spot and money spent on Margot hasn't helped us that much and we could have been better off without him. So... I'm leaning toward... budget has hurt us thus far because of Margot.

I'm betting when the season is done. The reallocation of those limited funds will be a negative for this year.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO we'd be better off staying pat than spending on new acquisitions (that contributed little to none) because we had better options in-house. The only position we really needed was a top SP that we could pick up at the deadline. 

Lets see...
Wallner
Kiriloff
Martin
Varland
Paddack
Farmer

Not sure how that "better options in-house" narrative is working out...
 

[jud6312]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Ownership is fine. They didn't force Falvey to blow $20MM of payroll capacity on guys like Margot, Santana, Farmer, and Desclafani. Falvey had the necessary resources, he just wasted them. Also, it wouldn't be a terrible thing if fans showed up sometime. The Twins have ranked higher in payroll than attendance for years now.

Hi, Thad.

[Craig Arko]

So maybe they spent more dough in the off-season. What difference would that have actually made?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Who broke this payroll information news in the first place? I don’t recall it being Pohlad. I think the Twins are in decent shape—this year anyway. 

[Linus]

The idea that less money to spend is acceptable to more money to spend is nonsensical. You always want more resources. The payroll cuts dictated that Polo was going to be traded no matter what. Falvine ended up settling on a deal that did us no good this year and likely will never do us any good. They clearly needed a starter and had to take DeSclafani. They needed a right handed hitting outfielder that could actually play and they got Margot. Gurriel was a great fit but cost money. Falvine had to pull a rabbit out of the hat due to the payroll but instead pulled a skunk. Ownership is getting exactly what they deserve in fan apathy. Can’t wait for Dave St Peter to open his mouth on this subject. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Who broke this payroll information news in the first place? I don’t recall it being Pohlad. I think the Twins are in decent shape—this year anyway. 

Falvey, in early November. (But certainly he isn't the one deciding what the payroll will be.)

https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/twins/twins-confirm-payroll-reduction-is-coming-in-2024

Joe Pohlad confirmed in February, with the infamous "right-sizing" interview.

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/joe-pohlad-says-twins-wont-splash-cash-on-big-free-agent

[mnfireman]

There are multiple areas that have hurt this years team:

The drop-off from projected starters (Buxton & Lewis, also Kepler) to replacements (Margot, Farmer & Martin) is greater than last season.

Young players expected to be counted on have not performed - Kirilloff, Wallner (AAA), Sands & Varland (AAA).

Proven veterans have seemingly fallen further than anyone would have ever thought - Vazquez, Margot & Farmer.

But I think Baldelli's refusal to get out of his own way (game management) has hampered this team more than anything - BP mismanagement, sticking with slumping players too long, PH in the 4th or 5th innings trying to get an advantage and the big two - the righty-vs-lefty line-ups and the get-away day line-ups. The players need to perform, but the manager needs to recognize which players are performing, which aren't and what combination gives the team the best chance to win each day. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

43 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

There are multiple areas that have hurt this years team:

The drop-off from projected starters (Buxton & Lewis, also Kepler) to replacements (Margot, Farmer & Martin) is greater than last season.

Young players expected to be counted on have not performed - Kirilloff, Wallner (AAA), Sands & Varland (AAA).

Proven veterans have seemingly fallen further than anyone would have ever thought - Vazquez, Margot & Farmer.

But I think Baldelli's refusal to get out of his own way (game management) has hampered this team more than anything - BP mismanagement, sticking with slumping players too long, PH in the 4th or 5th innings trying to get an advantage and the big two - the righty-vs-lefty line-ups and the get-away day line-ups. The players need to perform, but the manager needs to recognize which players are performing, which aren't and what combination gives the team the best chance to win each day. 

 

Everyone is playing badly, they are winning, and the manager isn't doing his job? Something doesn't add up....

[mnfireman]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Everyone is playing badly, they are winning, and the manager isn't doing his job? Something doesn't add up....

You are right, my bad... 15-5 against teams under .500 - including 10-0 against CHW & LAA; 9-14 against teams above .500 - including 1- 10 against CLE, NYY, BAL & LAD. Success...But every team plays the schedule they are given...

[tony&rodney]

Hard to dismiss how futile the Twins have looked against teams like Baltimore, Los Angeles (Dodgers), and New York (Yankees).

Hopefully the players who were expected to play well show in future series versus strong teams. It can happen.

The 2024 team is exactly what Falvey wanted because he put it together.  

[Brandon27]

I blame more on the owners/front office not having new tv deal in place before the start of the offseson 

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, mnfireman said:

You are right, my bad... 15-5 against teams under .500 - including 10-0 against CHW & LAA; 9-14 against teams above .500 - including 1- 10 against CLE, NYY, BAL & LAD. Success...But every team plays the schedule they are given...

The Twins have a better winning percentage against the sub-500 teams.  

CLE 14-9

NYY 18-8

BAL 13-9

LAD 23-14

The Twins not only have a better winning percentage at 15-5. They have played less games against under .500 clubs with 20 compared to CLE 24, NYY 26, BAL 22 and LAD 37. 

Good teams win 6 out of 10 

Bad teams win 4 out of 10

Average teams win 5 out of 10

The Rockies have won 7 in a row. 

The Margins are thin. 

 

[Major League Ready]

Polanco was replaced by players that are performing significantly better than him.  Had they not spent the money, they would have a better team.  Therefore, the decision to reallocate his salary did not hurt them.  The decision on where to spend to spend that $10.5M might turn out poorly but trading Polanco in itself was a net gain to team productivity as of this moment.  There is a lot of season to play.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's my general feeling....

They don’t grow on trees - these “top starting pitchers” available at the deadline. With the aforementioned frugal ownership position, it’s going to be pretty difficult to be in the mix. We’ll use up a good player/prospect or three and it will be for a 2 month rental as there’s no intention of paying anyone into the future.

Don’t see this approach as realistic, nor smart.

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

They don’t grow on trees - these “top starting pitchers” available at the deadline. With the aforementioned frugal ownership position, it’s going to be pretty difficult to be in the mix. We’ll use up a good player/prospect or three and it will be for a 2 month rental as there’s no intention of paying anyone into the future.

Don’t see this approach as realistic, nor smart.

You are right.  They are hard to come by, but it worked out pretty well for the Rangers last year.  What if they would have signed Snell?  Of course, he may come around but so far not so good.  Montgomery has been mediocre too.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

It worked out pretty well for the Rangers last year.

I was the biggest proponent for 3 months to sign Montgomery. The Rangers are an odd example as they have Scherzer & deGrom on their payroll. The post is about the cheap ownership of the Twins……..not the hyper aggressive front office of the Twins (that doesn’t exist)

Cole Ragans is now K.C.’s future pitching anchor.

How did the Mahle trade work out for the Twins??