Welcome Back, José Miranda. We Missed You.

[Cody Pirkl]

The one shining positive of Royce Lewis's immediate injury on Opening Day was the opportunity it created. So far, José Miranda has seized that opportunity. Can he continue to do so?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

At the end of the 2022 season, José Miranda looked like a potential core piece of the Twins lineup. He was treated as such in early 2023, before it all fell apart. We wondered whether Miranda’s strong rookie season was just a flash in the pan, or if his shoulder injury was entirely to blame for the poor performance. So far, in 2024, it looks like the latter. 

Miranda looks like the same hitter he’s always been. He swings at everything, resulting in very few walks or strikeouts. He’s been a complement to a Twins lineup full of hitters who like to draw out at-bats and wait out pitchers. He looks to do nothing but drive the baseball, and that’s exactly what he’s done so far in 2024. With a triple slash line of .315/.339/.519, he’s been one of the many reasons the Twins have turned their season around in such a hurry

Miranda’s Statcast page doesn’t jump out regarding traditional measures such as average exit velocity, expected slugging, weighted on-base, etc. Still, it’s worth noting that this was similarly true in 2022 when he broke out. It's why folks were so quick to worry that he was a mirage, once 2023 went awry. He may take a unique path to success at the plate, but aside from 2023, when he was injured, he seems to keep finding his way there. There also might be a bit more to see than the Savant sliders suggest.

Our own Matthew Trueblood has played with batted-ball data to focus on the average exit velocity for each hitter on balls hit between 10 and 35 degrees upward (where most hits, and especially extra-base hits, happen), and then weighted that according to the frequency with which they actually produce those line drives and fly balls. The league's average weighted sweet spot exit velocity (wSSEV) is around 86.0 miles per hour. Miranda's was at 88 in 2022, then cratered to under 83 in 2023. In his very limited 2024 sample, it's 90.4.

That improvement, in turn, stems partially from his much-improved contact skills within the strike zone. He might not have cut down much on his swing rate, but when he does swing, he connects at a much higher rate than he used to--especially within the strike zone.

Perhaps because he's locking in on his pitch better, too, Miranda has become a much more lift-and-pull hitter. That's the type of batted ball the Twins are always coaching their guys to chase, and it's why the team takes a very patient overall approach; it's usually hard to get the bat head out and pull fly balls without guessing and sitting on a pitch. Miranda, though, is maintaining his free-swinging ways while still morphing into a powerful dead-pull hitter who can get some air under the ball.

Equally impressive is Miranda’s defense. It seemed like the Twins had moved on from the idea of him being a usable third baseman. By Outs Above Average, which measures his range, he grades in the 16th percentile with -4 OAA. By Defensive Runs Saved, though, he’s completely neutral. He’s made the plays he’s supposed to and even a few that were far from routine.

Some were surprised to learn that the Twins decided to keep Miranda on the roster over the more versatile Austin Martin this week, but the Twins have been proven correct in their choice. Miranda is a legitimate option at third base and has been an impact bat every time his name has been written into the lineup.

Miranda has had a resurgence in 2024, and still has a lot of time to cement himself as a piece of this roster before Lewis returns. Even if, at that point, he’s rarely an option at third base, it would simply be impossible not to find him playing time if he continues to swing it the way he has so far.

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Were we right all along about José Miranda? Is he a legitimate future piece of the Twins lineup who suffered from poor health in 2023? So far, in 2024, that appears to be the case.

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[bean5302]

Nice article. I think Miranda has been substantially overlooked by the fan base (and the front office) after trying to play through a bum shoulder all last year before finally undergoing surgery. I'm also glad he's hitting RH well in addition to crushing lefties outright. On a team obsessed with platoon-only, all or nothing HR guys, Miranda is a breath of fresh air at the plate.

From an athletic tools standpoint, he's still lacking as he's a poor runner, and his arm is below average which is why most people expect him to land at 1B/DH, but with Royce Lewis out Miranda is getting into the lineup at 3B. Santana is entrenched at 1B and the front office is trying to keep Kirilloff at DH. 90 innings is pretty much nothing this year, but there's nothing jumping out at me different this year than his previous 3B experiences. In short, he's not cut out for the position, but that's where the opportunity is. Miranda at 3B is better than Santana at 3B, basically.

[Doctor Gast]

It shouldn't have taken Lewis to get hurt for Miranda to get his chance. Miranda should have been given the opportunity to play 1B instead of signing Santana. Miranda should stay up with the Twins all year. When Lewis comes back Miranda will probably be sent down because there's no place at 1B.

[Muppet]

I sure hope these hot flashes with players like Miranda and Larnach continue when they play teams not named the White Sox. 

[LastOnePicked]

I can't even imagine how difficult it is to play at the MLB level. And then to struggle as a young player, to deal with injuries, and then to bounce back and put yourself right back into contention for a starting role? I have a ton of respect for Miranda and his early returns this year.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

54 ABs.... Yep, let's anoint him as fixed.

[Dman]

30 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

54 ABs.... Yep, let's anoint him as fixed.

Agreed. 54 at bats is too small a sample size to glean much reliable info.  Still it is nice to see him doing well.  Hopefully he keeps it up.  We need all the good hitters we can find.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

It shouldn't have taken Lewis to get hurt for Miranda to get his chance. Miranda should have been given the opportunity to play 1B instead of signing Santana. Miranda should stay up with the Twins all year. When Lewis comes back Miranda will probably be sent down because there's no place at 1B.

Agreed!

[jorgenswest]

I am fine with the plan to start him in AAA. Now that he is here and shown success they need to start him more against right handed pitching. He may be the every day bat they needed to find this winter.

[Linus]

22 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Good to see Jose grabbing back his career even if it is a SSS.  With Lewis there, he is not the long term answer at 3B but I believe he is at least a platoon answer at 1B starting next season when Santana leaves.  As long as he keeps hitting, the team will need to DH him once Lewis returns.  If he is performing offensively, it would be silly to send him back to STP just because there is no defensive position for him this year.

If he keeps on hitting there is definitely a role for him next year. Especially because he looks viable at third. He’s not great there but he can spell Lewis play 1st against lefties and dh some. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

If he keeps on hitting there is definitely a role for him next year. Especially because he looks viable at third. He’s not great there but he can spell Lewis play 1st against lefties and dh some. 

Next year? This year.... And next....

[Danchat]

I figured Miranda's 2021-22 play wasn't just a mirage. There's still a ways to go and plenty of downs and ups coming down the road for him, but it's nice to see his career is back on track. Still pretty shaky about his fielding abilities but when he is hot he can be the everyday DH.

[Brandon]

If he can play a little 2B we can replace farmer with him this season and Santana next season.  

[wabene]

Coming into the season the Twins didn't have enough confidence in the health and or performance of Miranda and Kirilloff to cover first even as a duo. At the time I would've preferred them rolling with those guys to signing Santana.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

54 ABs.... Yep, let's anoint him as fixed.

 

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Agreed. 54 at bats is too small a sample size to glean much reliable info.  Still it is nice to see him doing well.  Hopefully he keeps it up.  We need all the good hitters we can find.

There's plenty to like in his actual results, but his advanced metrics do also show plenty of reason to remain skeptical with the SSS. If he doesn't start hitting some more line drives and taking some walks, the production won't be sustainable.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

54 ABs.... Yep, let's anoint him as fixed.

No offense but I'm not convinced you wouldn't say he is cooked if he stunk the joint up in those same at bats. That goes for anyone i guess because most i talk to IRL and certainly the vibe I've gotten on here is that, exactly. He was hurt last year unfortunately. He was in excellent shape and sadly, the shoulder got him. If he stays healthy, I think he'll be fine.

[High heat]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It shouldn't have taken Lewis to get hurt for Miranda to get his chance. Miranda should have been given the opportunity to play 1B instead of signing Santana. Miranda should stay up with the Twins all year. When Lewis comes back Miranda will probably be sent down because there's no place at 1B.

What are the chances that one of Kiriloff Santana or Larnach are healthy and playing well in a month when Lewis is back?  I would say pretty slim.  
 

I know everyone try’s to look at the roster on paper but if the first month has taught us anything just throw your plan out the window.  Your roster is 50players deep.  (Your entire 40 man + 10 or more of non roster guys who can hopefully contribute). 

[jimbo92107]

Hands thrusting forward, bat head lagging behind and BELOW the hands... I like his 2024 swing. It will allow him to drive and lift balls on both sides of the plate, and if he can pounce on high fastballs with that swing, Jose Miranda is going to have a wonderful year. 

[jmlease1]

I'm really happy to see him hitting well and looking solid at 3B. I do have some concerns that his approach isn't going to be sustainable as teams get more tape on him; better pitchers in MLB do tend to exploit guys who swing at everything. I don't expect him to take a ton of walks, but ticking up that box a little more could make a real difference.

We'll see how he responds when he gets into a bad stretch, if he can adjust to the adjustments pitchers are making against him. But his struggles last season were clearly related to his injury status and he looks much much better this year.

I can't really blame the Twins for being concerned about putting 1B in the hands of Miranda and Kirilloff out the gate; both guys hadn't been healthy and Miranda in particular had real questions whether he was fully healthy coming into the year. And beyond those guys the next man up in the minors would have been...Severino? Who had limited PT at 1B and no MLB experience (and he's really struggled so far in AAA this year).

Here's hoping Miranda keeps making a decision on who to replace when Lewis comes back very very difficult.

[saviking]

And Larnach. I remember everyone had written him off last year when they never gave him enough bats .. Same with Miranda. Wish we would have more faith in our young players and let them develop than spend five.\six mill on players over their prime. 

[LambchoP]

He needs to continue to play everyday. When Lewis comes back, maybe platoon Miranda at 1st base w Kiriloff and give each of them DH duties as well, depending on the opposing pitcher. I'd also like to see Larnach continue to get everyday at bats even against lefties. How are these young guys supposed to improve against lefties if they never have dn opportunity to hit against them?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

And Larnach. I remember everyone had written him off last year when they never gave him enough bats .. Same with Miranda. Wish we would have more faith in our young players and let them develop than spend five.\six mill on players over their prime. 

I still think Larnach is a 1.5 WAR outfielder. He's had his bursts of production in the past, but his problem has always been identifying off-speed and breaking pitches. It's not that Larnach just doesn't hit them well, he's been unable to even identify the pitches. The only hit fastballs trend has followed into the very SSS this year, but it looks better to start (like it did to start last year or 2022, can't remember which).

If he can sustain .800 OPS level production above 150 plate appearances while not being a black hole against 3 of the 5 (changeup, slider, sweeper, splitter, curve), he's got a shot at changing my opinion.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 hours ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

No offense but I'm not convinced you wouldn't say he is cooked if he stunk the joint up in those same at bats. That goes for anyone i guess because most i talk to IRL and certainly the vibe I've gotten on here is that, exactly. He was hurt last year unfortunately. He was in excellent shape and sadly, the shoulder got him. If he stays healthy, I think he'll be fine.

Then you obviously haven't read much of my comments.  Sample size is always a important.  Austin Martin was ok, not great while he was up.  Am I writing him off?  No, he just needs a longer period of success.  Do you need more examples of jumping on the bandwagon early?  Where is Matt Wallner right now?

I am not saying Miranda is lucky, I am saying 54 ABs is an extremely small sample size.  Heck, 200 ABs is a relatively small sample size

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Then you obviously haven't read much of my comments.  Sample size is always a important.  Austin Martin was ok, not great while he was up.  Am I writing him off?  No, he just needs a longer period of success.  Do you need more examples of jumping on the bandwagon early?  Where is Matt Wallner right now?

I am not saying Miranda is lucky, I am saying 54 ABs is an extremely small sample size.  Heck, 200 ABs is a relatively small sample size

He has 695 plate appearances to start his career with a 105 OPS+. That is a pretty fair start where at his age you would expect the next 695 to be better than the first 695.

[Fatbat]

Its nice that we have a deep bench because injuries are going to stop happening. Miranda was injured last season. He is young and talented so he will be around for a long time. At some point, we should stop signing the Margo’s, Santana’s, Gallo’s and rely on our young core.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On 5/3/2024 at 11:10 AM, Cody Pirkl said:

Were we right all along about José Miranda?

Here is what you said about Miranda in March: 

“We have to hope that Miranda’s step backward in 2023 was based on injury, but he’s likely lost his Opening Day role, regardless of whether that's true or not. It doesn’t seem like Miranda is seen as much of a third baseman at this point, leaving him confined to first base and DH.”

If you remember, Miranda started as the everyday third basemen in 2023 and went through that bad slump in April. I think what Miranda needed during that stretch was a couple more days off, or some run at DH, to correct whatever mental or physical block he was having. 

If Miranda was hurt at the start of 2023 (possible), then he should have been on the IL. (Something we have said about the Twins decision-making many times before, about many other players).

The swing comparison, or not being able to handle elevated fastballs as well last year, I will guess stemmed from fatigue or whatever physical deficiency (most likely shoulder).

All that said, i hope he keeps up the success. I don’t know what the future holds for him after Lewis returns. 

[stringer bell]

If he shows he's a better hitter than Kirilloff and Santana, José should continue to have a big role for the Twins, even after Royce Lewis returns. So far this year, Miranda has shown himself to be at least adequate at third base, which increases his value, especially since Lewis hasn't managed to stay on the field. 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 5/4/2024 at 4:03 PM, jorgenswest said:

He has 695 plate appearances to start his career with a 105 OPS+. That is a pretty fair start where at his age you would expect the next 695 to be better than the first 695.

He had one solid year, then a disastrous one where performance and injuries would not let him out of AAA.  Heck, he didn't even make the team out of Spring Training after the Twins signed Santana because they did not have faith Miranda could handle it.

Anybody saying they expected him to be successful at this point is not being honest.  Hoping, yes.  Expecting,  no.  

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

He had one solid year, then a disastrous one where performance and injuries would not let him out of AAA.  Heck, he didn't even make the team out of Spring Training after the Twins signed Santana because they did not have faith Miranda could handle it.

Anybody saying they expected him to be successful at this point is not being honest.  Hoping, yes.  Expecting,  no.  

Wasn’t your argument about sample size?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

35 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Wasn’t your argument about sample size?

Yes.  The sample size since his return is small.  To say he is fixed is premature.  You were referring to the totality of his history.  He had one good year, then a bad one.