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At the end of the 2022 season, José Miranda looked like a potential core piece of the Twins lineup. He was treated as such in early 2023, before it all fell apart. We wondered whether Miranda’s strong rookie season was just a flash in the pan, or if his shoulder injury was entirely to blame for the poor performance. So far, in 2024, it looks like the latter.
Miranda looks like the same hitter he’s always been. He swings at everything, resulting in very few walks or strikeouts. He’s been a complement to a Twins lineup full of hitters who like to draw out at-bats and wait out pitchers. He looks to do nothing but drive the baseball, and that’s exactly what he’s done so far in 2024. With a triple slash line of .315/.339/.519, he’s been one of the many reasons the Twins have turned their season around in such a hurry
Miranda’s Statcast page doesn’t jump out regarding traditional measures such as average exit velocity, expected slugging, weighted on-base, etc. Still, it’s worth noting that this was similarly true in 2022 when he broke out. It's why folks were so quick to worry that he was a mirage, once 2023 went awry. He may take a unique path to success at the plate, but aside from 2023, when he was injured, he seems to keep finding his way there. There also might be a bit more to see than the Savant sliders suggest.
Our own Matthew Trueblood has played with batted-ball data to focus on the average exit velocity for each hitter on balls hit between 10 and 35 degrees upward (where most hits, and especially extra-base hits, happen), and then weighted that according to the frequency with which they actually produce those line drives and fly balls. The league's average weighted sweet spot exit velocity (wSSEV) is around 86.0 miles per hour. Miranda's was at 88 in 2022, then cratered to under 83 in 2023. In his very limited 2024 sample, it's 90.4.
That improvement, in turn, stems partially from his much-improved contact skills within the strike zone. He might not have cut down much on his swing rate, but when he does swing, he connects at a much higher rate than he used to--especially within the strike zone.
Perhaps because he's locking in on his pitch better, too, Miranda has become a much more lift-and-pull hitter. That's the type of batted ball the Twins are always coaching their guys to chase, and it's why the team takes a very patient overall approach; it's usually hard to get the bat head out and pull fly balls without guessing and sitting on a pitch. Miranda, though, is maintaining his free-swinging ways while still morphing into a powerful dead-pull hitter who can get some air under the ball.
Equally impressive is Miranda’s defense. It seemed like the Twins had moved on from the idea of him being a usable third baseman. By Outs Above Average, which measures his range, he grades in the 16th percentile with -4 OAA. By Defensive Runs Saved, though, he’s completely neutral. He’s made the plays he’s supposed to and even a few that were far from routine.
Some were surprised to learn that the Twins decided to keep Miranda on the roster over the more versatile Austin Martin this week, but the Twins have been proven correct in their choice. Miranda is a legitimate option at third base and has been an impact bat every time his name has been written into the lineup.
Miranda has had a resurgence in 2024, and still has a lot of time to cement himself as a piece of this roster before Lewis returns. Even if, at that point, he’s rarely an option at third base, it would simply be impossible not to find him playing time if he continues to swing it the way he has so far.
Were we right all along about José Miranda? Is he a legitimate future piece of the Twins lineup who suffered from poor health in 2023? So far, in 2024, that appears to be the case.
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