Lineup Carries the Weight of the World For Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

It didn’t have to be this way. The Minnesota Twins could have carried over some of their pitching prowess from the starting rotation in 2023. It was unlikely the new group could accomplish that, though, and now the weight of the world falls on the starting lineup.

 

FT. MYERS, FL - Fans were riding high when the 2023 Minnesota Twins concluded their season with a postseason series sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays and an elimination at the hands of the Houston Astros. The organization had seen heights it hadn’t reached in decades, and 2024 would bring promise.

That promise didn’t need to be dashed if Sonny Gray wasn’t given a gaudy contract or Kenta Maeda wasn’t retained. In some fashion, though, their production had to be accounted for. Leaning on Chris Paddack to throw 140-plus quality innings seemed like a loft bet, and giving someone of Anthony DeSclafani’s caliber an unchallenged rotation spot couldn’t happen. However, the ownership group chose this rotation path, and now it will be on the lineup to pick up the pieces.

When Derek Falvey announced the Twins' injuries heading into the season on Monday, the hits just kept coming. DeSclafani has been behind all camp, but with a visit to a surgeon on tap, pitching at all is a real question. Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar are out, and that takes two prominent arms from what could be a bullpen that could contend for the best in baseball. Matt Canterino being injured again was just a cherry on top.

So, less than two weeks before Opening Day in Kansas City, Rocco Baldelli must turn to Louie Varland as his fifth starter. He’s been great this spring and probably is a better option than DeSclafani, but the depth is immediately in use. The bullpen loses to leverage arms, and a group that would need to cover more innings than last year is now thinner than it should be.

Enter a necessary clean bill of health for Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and every other regular that flanks them. It’s great that the guys hitting in the lineup have been good to go daily this spring, but that must continue over the next weeks and months if Minnesota is going to mask some of the issues they will now have on the mound.

In 2023, the Twins rotation had the fifth-lowest ERA in baseball while compiling the fourth-highest fWAR. Avoiding any interest in spending money on that group, even with critical departures, they pushed resources toward the bullpen. Minnesota’s wRC+ was sixth in baseball, and their offensive fWAR was worth the 10th-highest amount. Those results are acceptable but buoyed heavily by a second-half stretch that had them in the top three.

Beyond the front office dealing with only limited resources this offseason, it’s clear that the blueprint was built with the belief that regular contributors would be back to themselves. Even for all of his late-season heroics, Lewis played in just 58 games. Correa battled through plantar fasciitis all season, and Buxton never got to a point where he felt normal. Those things are all currently in the rearview mirror, but it is the belief and hope of the organization that they will remain that way.

It’s almost inexcusable that the Twins didn’t sign another legitimate arm to bolster the rotation. Should they find themselves in contention, they will likely make an addition through a trade. Not needing to thread that needle by putting the utmost pressure on the lineup each day could also have been part of the plan.

Now, already diving into pitching depth, Baldelli needs to pull the right strings each time he constructs his lineup card, and those penciled in have to come through.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Agreed!

[GKuehl]

Not adding another veteran starting pitcher before the beginning of the season--even if it is someone like Keuchel, Cueto, Rich Hill, or Vince Velasquez to a MiLB deal--would be front-office malpractice. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

"It didn’t have to be this way. The Minnesota Twins could have carried over some of their pitching prowess from the starting rotation in 2023. Thanks to a lack of investment in the team on the part of ownership, though, the weight of the world now falls on the starting lineup. "

When you have a budget, it's all about choices.  If the front office feels like the hitting side of the lineup is likely improved, it lessens the need to spend more on pitching.  I don't think that makes them sinister or even necessarily cheap.  It seems quite realistic that the hitters overall will be improved (never a sure thing), so their choice is a reasonable one.  The pitching staff is projected to still be on the upper end of the league, so I'm willing to go with it for now.  If there is a problem that can't be solved later in the season we can trade for a starter at the deadline.  People do it all the time.  Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

[Jocko87]

Quote

It didn’t have to be this way. The Minnesota Twins could have carried over some of their pitching prowess from the starting rotation in 2023. Thanks to a lack of investment in the team on the part of ownership, though, the weight of the world now falls on the starting lineup.

Wut.

Yes, quite "inexcusable" they chose not to employ any actual bipeds with a functional appendage suitable for a vintage underhand lollylob.  Yes, Smithers, yes!

We will chose our pitchers from this illustrious list of luminaries.

Lotta takes been in the drafts folder for the first, inevitable injury.  Start the games already, the content machine needs fed.

[big dog]

I was hoping we would somehow keep Sonny Gray. However, that wouldn't have changed this article given that he's already dealing with hamstring trouble.

[Greglw3]

From my long experience as a baseball fan and standard baseball wisdom for decades. Good hitting can never cover for weak, teetering pitching. The best I ever saw was the ’77 Twins and they finished just 84-78 with truly phenomenal hitting. In my book, the greatest hitting team in Twins history, Gene Mauch skipper.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, GKuehl said:

Not adding another veteran starting pitcher before the beginning of the season--even if it is someone like Keuchel, Cueto, Rich Hill, or Vince Velasquez to a MiLB deal--would be front-office malpractice. 

IMO that'd be the best route from the beginning, signing someone like Rich Hill to a MiLB deal as insurance yet giving our young SPs priority.

The pressure is on the lineup to not strike out in close games but be better at hitting in the clutch, Forget about the HRs. We need to take the pressure off the BP.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, big dog said:

I was hoping we would somehow keep Sonny Gray. However, that wouldn't have changed this article given that he's already dealing with hamstring trouble.

Sonny Gray had hamstring tightness. It's not really even a strain. He's pitching tomorrow and there's optimism he'll pitch in the Cardinals opening series. Worst case scenario looks to be him missing a single start. 

Considering Gray's contract with the Cardinals pays him only $10MM this year, the fact the Twins didn't bring him back is reprehensible.

[roger]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

"It didn’t have to be this way. The Minnesota Twins could have carried over some of their pitching prowess from the starting rotation in 2023. Thanks to a lack of investment in the team on the part of ownership, though, the weight of the world now falls on the starting lineup. "

When you have a budget, it's all about choices.  If the front office feels like the hitting side of the lineup is likely improved, it lessens the need to spend more on pitching.  I don't think that makes them sinister or even necessarily cheap.  It seems quite realistic that the hitters overall will be improved (never a sure thing), so their choice is a reasonable one.  The pitching staff is projected to still be on the upper end of the league, so I'm willing to go with it for now.  If there is a problem that can't be solved later in the season we can trade for a starter at the deadline.  People do it all the time.  Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

You said exactly what I was thinking Rod.  And you said it much better than I would have, thanks.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Sonny Gray had hamstring tightness. It's not really even a strain. He's pitching tomorrow and there's optimism he'll pitch in the Cardinals opening series. Worst case scenario looks to be him missing a single start. 

Considering Gray's contract with the Cardinals pays him only $10MM this year, the fact the Twins didn't bring him back is reprehensible.

Gray's contract is guaranteed 3 years and 75 million dollars.  That wasn't going to happen.

To me, the mistake was not taking the Polanco $$$ and signing Maeda to the 2 year $24 million dollar contract he got from the Tigers.  

[mikelink45]

Unless it is Montgomery I want to go with what we have.  Send down Sands, he is not MLB caliber.  Let's start pushing what we have. 

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Sonny Gray had hamstring tightness. It's not really even a strain. He's pitching tomorrow and there's optimism he'll pitch in the Cardinals opening series. Worst case scenario looks to be him missing a single start. 

Considering Gray's contract with the Cardinals pays him only $10MM this year, the fact the Twins didn't bring him back is reprehensible.

And the rest of the 75M?

[DocBauer]

58yo and a fan for about 53yrs, but not a devoted one...I was just a little kid, lol...until about the mid 70's. I watched games on Grandma's cable and read the Tribune and every single I could I could get my hands on from about age 10-11. I've read publications that no longer even exist...Baseball Digest as an example...to follow the team and prospects.

I've seen some very good offensive teams in my day. I'll always have a soft spot for the late 80's and early 90's and a few years where Cuddy and the M&M boys helped produce some really good offenses.

But while there are a few question marks about the 2024 offense including the kids repeating, how much do we get out of Buxton, does Santana have anything left other than as a solid platoon partner, I'm honestly about as excited about the Twins lineup as I've ever been.

Despite a bad pattern of scoring runs only in bunches and no clutch hitting, the team virtually flipped the entire script the second half of 2023 after some changes, and WITHOUT Buxton, and a still limited Correa. And they finished #2 in runs the 2nd half behind Houston, IIRC. 

Julien and Lewis are for real. I think Wallner is as well, but he's a small notch down. I still expect a few bumps in the road due to inexperience. Correa is healthy again. It looks like we can expect more than a single month of a hurt Buxton. AK appears 100% and ready to FINALLY show what he's capable of. Jeffers and Vazquez form a really nice combo at catcher both offensively and defensively. And not only are there some solid depth pieces at the ML level, but there's a handful of really nice prospects and potential contributors at AAA. 

I don't think offense is going to be an issue in 2024. 

[KBJ1]

We wanted $15 on players we didn't need. DeSclafani- out, Margot & Santana.

Should have signed Gurriel or a SP and went with Miranda & Martin. Now we are stucknwith these 3 and Varland is the #5 SP anyway. Ugh!

Thank God for Willi Castro, but it's not going to be enough unless Santana & Margot are brilliant - which I highly doubt.

[rv78]

10 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

"It didn’t have to be this way. The Minnesota Twins could have carried over some of their pitching prowess from the starting rotation in 2023. Thanks to a lack of investment in the team on the part of ownership, though, the weight of the world now falls on the starting lineup. "

When you have a budget, it's all about choices.  If the front office feels like the hitting side of the lineup is likely improved, it lessens the need to spend more on pitching.  I don't think that makes them sinister or even necessarily cheap.  It seems quite realistic that the hitters overall will be improved (never a sure thing), so their choice is a reasonable one.  The pitching staff is projected to still be on the upper end of the league, so I'm willing to go with it for now.  If there is a problem that can't be solved later in the season we can trade for a starter at the deadline.  People do it all the time.  Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

Totally disagree. Pitching has always been more important than hitting. As for acquiring said pitching at the deadline, that is the most expensive time to do so. Which top prospect or two are you willing to give away for a short-term pitcher at that time, that you weren't willing to move previously this off-season. On top of that, I don't trust this FO to make the correct move, seeing how they've messed that up in the past with a couple of guys named Mahle and JLopez. Weren't they brought in to develop pitching in house? How are the only two starters that they have developed in the years they've been here doing? Ober is in his 2nd season and Varland wins the #5 spot by default. Hardly worthy accomplishments, I'd say. Maybe it's time to start holding Falvey and Levine accountable for their failures instead of giving them a pass on every bad move they make.

[awmonahan]

It's not worth apologizing for ownership. At the end of the day, you want to make money, yes. However, the value of the team has shot up astronomically. People buy lit if things to make money. People buy baseball teams because they have a ton of money, love to win and want to be invest in something enjoyable. All that, to my mind means, when the team is actually really good and has a chance to do something remarkable, don't cut the payroll! Don't shortchange the starting rotation! Stop messing around! MN has money. If you're disinterested, sell the team to someone who want to win. Maybe they won't have billions of dollars from foreclosures during the depression, but they might just have the balls to actually turn the screws at the right time. 

[mnfireman]

So, everybody comes on here complaining that the pitching pipeline of the pitching guru's (Falvey & Levine) isn't delivering, but, now that it is supposed to be relied on (and is delivering), everybody comes on here, complaining that the pitching guru's (Falvey & Levine) didn't bring in a veteran from outside the pitching pipeline to help the team. WOW!! Can't have it both ways. Trust the process. The team didn't cheap out, the young talent on the team and on the way isn't going to be cheap...

[Fezig]

Let the starters go more than 4 innings and the lack of bullpen depth won't matter so much.

[Doctor Wu]

I honestly didn't expect that the Twins would try and sign any of the better free agent pitchers, but I sure was hoping that they would swing a trade for a high-quality arm. Not sure if that  was realistic either, or maybe they tried and couldn't find a deal to their liking, but we still need another veteran arm in the rotation, at least one that doesn't promise to spend a lot of time on the IL. I have high hopes for several of our young pitchers, but I think it's very wishful thinking that another one or two will step up this season and propel us to the playoffs. Sure, it's possible that someone like Varland, Raya, or SWR will look like an All-Star candidate when July rolls around, but I'm not that optimistic it will happen. 

[mikelink45]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

58yo and a fan for about 53yrs, but not a devoted one...I was just a little kid, lol...until about the mid 70's. I watched games on Grandma's cable and read the Tribune and every single I could I could get my hands on from about age 10-11. I've read publications that no longer even exist...Baseball Digest as an example...to follow the team and prospects.

I've seen some very good offensive teams in my day. I'll always have a soft spot for the late 80's and early 90's and a few years where Cuddy and the M&M boys helped produce some really good offenses.

But while there are a few question marks about the 2024 offense including the kids repeating, how much do we get out of Buxton, does Santana have anything left other than as a solid platoon partner, I'm honestly about as excited about the Twins lineup as I've ever been.

Despite a bad pattern of scoring runs only in bunches and no clutch hitting, the team virtually flipped the entire script the second half of 2023 after some changes, and WITHOUT Buxton, and a still limited Correa. And they finished #2 in runs the 2nd half behind Houston, IIRC. 

Julien and Lewis are for real. I think Wallner is as well, but he's a small notch down. I still expect a few bumps in the road due to inexperience. Correa is healthy again. It looks like we can expect more than a single month of a hurt Buxton. AK appears 100% and ready to FINALLY show what he's capable of. Jeffers and Vazquez form a really nice combo at catcher both offensively and defensively. And not only are there some solid depth pieces at the ML level, but there's a handful of really nice prospects and potential contributors at AAA. 

I don't think offense is going to be an issue in 2024. 

Baseball digest still exists, but not in the form we grew up with.  I used to read it intently and memorize the statistics.  I loved it.  Baseball has changed so much that those same statistics do not have the meaning we grew up (I am 78).  After Bonds, McGwire, Sosa juiced their way to HR heaven I stopped caring about 500,600,700 HRs.  My list stopped with Aaron, Ruth, May.

I loved seeing players like Warren Spahn come back from heroic service in the war and still win over 300 games.  Now there is no one even close to 300 innings.  

Henderson, Coleman, Wills, and Brock made basestealing a much anticipated part of the game and then we changed it.  Relief pitchers like Hoyt Wilhelm would come in whenever needed - there were no saves.

Thanks for mentioning the old magazine and bringing back memories -  I do have to add, I still love baseball and follow the team and this site almost religiously.  I will live with the strikeout era, the reliance on too many BP pitchers and innings, and celebrate the fact that we are back to a quicker game. 

[HrbieFan]

14 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Gray's contract is guaranteed 3 years and 75 million dollars.  That wasn't going to happen.

To me, the mistake was not taking the Polanco $$$ and signing Maeda to the 2 year $24 million dollar contract he got from the Tigers.  

They still could use it on Lorenzen. After ST, I am really worried about our starters. Maybe they were working on pitches and angles, but Ryan was the only steady SP 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, GKuehl said:

Not adding another veteran starting pitcher before the beginning of the season--even if it is someone like Keuchel, Cueto, Rich Hill, or Vince Velasquez to a MiLB deal--would be front-office malpractice. 

Not sure it needs to happen that soon but a reasonable plan to have a guy working regularly in late May and into June for some use in mid-late summer. Not sure if Kuechel is upset about his post season treatment (a competitor just like all Pros) but he seems to be the best option with his recent connection with the Club.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Fezig said:

Let the starters go more than 4 innings and the lack of bullpen depth won't matter so much.

‘23 the Twins were #1 in starter innings into mid-August.

Ended at #2 or #3 I believe.

Not an issue if the starters pitch up to a competent level.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

11 hours ago, rv78 said:

Totally disagree. Pitching has always been more important than hitting. As for acquiring said pitching at the deadline, that is the most expensive time to do so. Which top prospect or two are you willing to give away for a short-term pitcher at that time, that you weren't willing to move previously this off-season. On top of that, I don't trust this FO to make the correct move, seeing how they've messed that up in the past with a couple of guys named Mahle and JLopez. Weren't they brought in to develop pitching in house? How are the only two starters that they have developed in the years they've been here doing? Ober is in his 2nd season and Varland wins the #5 spot by default. Hardly worthy accomplishments, I'd say. Maybe it's time to start holding Falvey and Levine accountable for their failures instead of giving them a pass on every bad move they make.

You may disagree with the philosophy but there is no black and white in baseball, or in much else for that matter.  A great pitching staff can get you a long ways in a season of baseball, but so will pounding the opponent into submission by scoring a lot of runs..  There are too many variables to each inning of each game to make any absolute statements.  It is finding a good balance that leads to excellence and sometimes that balance tilts in a different direction.  

As for trading prospects at the deadline, an entirely new group of prospects may be available at that point because there is an additional half season of data available on them.  For some previously “untouchable” prospects, the shine may have worn off and now they are tradable.  For other previously unknown prospects, they may have come forward to shine and have strong value.  Sometimes how different prospects develop means that others are now expendable.  For example, do you think that the Twins wouldn’t have been better off trading Larnach, Miranda, or Winder when their values were at their peak?  There is a certain additional degree of clarity that develops with more data from the minor leaguers (and major leaguers).

It’s not an exact science to trade for pitching help during the season, nor is it easy to find a trade partner in the offseason.  Free agents only cost money, but there is always a finite supply of that, plus, just ask the Red Sox how the Giolito contract looks now (and many, including me, thought that Giolito would have been a good target for the Twins).  All of those free agent acquisitions didn’t work out so well for the Mets or the Padres or the Angels either and they all spent big bucks.   It’s pretty easy to to throw rocks at the front office for every mistake that they make, but if you are going to do that, you need to give credit for the fact that they won the division last year and seem poised to do it again this year.  At the end of the day (and YMMV) you have to decide if you are comfortable with the product on the field given the current team situation or if you think it is vastly underachieving.  For me, I like the competitive baseball that we had last year and I will choose to cheer for that to continue.  The team may look and feel a little bit different this year, but that’s OK.  We won a division in 2019 by scoring a lot of runs, and we won last year by preventing them.  Maybe a balance will be a better option and enable us to go a little farther.  

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Gray's contract is guaranteed 3 years and 75 million dollars.  That wasn't going to happen.

To me, the mistake was not taking the Polanco $$$ and signing Maeda to the 2 year $24 million dollar contract he got from the Tigers.  

Why wasn't a similar value contract going to happen? It's $10MM this year, which is less than what Polanco was making. The Twins have only $80MM guaranteed on the books in 2025.

[Cris E]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Why wasn't a similar value contract going to happen? It's $10MM this year, which is less than what Polanco was making. The Twins have only $80MM guaranteed on the books in 2025.

The Twins have a lot of guys coming along that are going to require raises in the next year or two: Ryan, Ober, Duran, Lewis, Jeffers, Jax maybe, It's fun when your young roster has success, but the day comes quickly when they have to be paid, and some of these guys are going to be expensive.

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, Cris E said:

The Twins have a lot of guys coming along that are going to require raises in the next year or two: Ryan, Ober, Duran, Lewis, Jeffers, Jax maybe, It's fun when your young roster has success, but the day comes quickly when they have to be paid, and some of these guys are going to be expensive.

I don't think that's going to happen, but I suppose Lewis could be expensive by 2026 as he's a super two with a lot of star potential. Vazquez, Farmer, and Kepler all clear nearly $30MM AAV off the books before then. The extra arbitration costs are unlikely to exceed that, IMHO.
 

[RpR]

Too much angst over the future, right now the Twins look better than last year , at least as far as people with owies go, with the pitching staff no more of a question mark than it was last year.

The Twins money situation , regadless of how they let float in public of it, is what they will decide in a moment if they so choose; not worth having -- What IF -- coniptions about.

Right now the only items I really wonder about is : Did Buxton's body fix, fix his bat; Will Correa's fielding be at Simmon's level and bat at Lewis level; Will Jeffers fielding come close to his bat level.

Season starts soon, and I will not let angst dim that day.

Happy Palm Sunday to all.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

5 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

They still could use it on Lorenzen. After ST, I am really worried about our starters. Maybe they were working on pitches and angles, but Ryan was the only steady SP 

I'm concerned too, but Lorenzen?  There would be an uproar on here if the Twins signed another guy with a damaged arm......ala Desclafani.