The Big Question: Back of the Bullpen

Last season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the best starting rotations in all baseball. Rocco Baldelli would love to see this group replicate that, but Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober must step up behind Pablo Lopez to avoid a dropoff. Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are gone, so if the Twins are going to be among the best bullpens in baseball, they’ll need to supplement a starting rotation that has lost some of its depth.

The front office has never spent substantially on the bullpen, save for Addison Reed. That remains true this year, and the back-end group featuring Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar all come in with minimal salary considerations. Supplementing them this year is a group acquired through Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon's trades and shrewd free-agent pickups.

How well the secondary bullpen group performs is a two-fold look at situations. First, what can be expected in a more significant sample from Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, and Steven Okert? Topa was the veteran prize acquired from Seattle in exchange for Polanco. He’s 32 years old but isn’t a free agent until 2027. Before last season, he had just 18 1/3 innings pitched at the major league level and allowed 17 runs for Milwaukee during that exposure.

Blossoming into a force with Seattle last season, Topa threw 69 innings and owned a 2.61 ERA. His 3.15 FIP wasn’t far off, and his 8.0 K/9 was more than serviceable. He allowed only 2.3 BB/9 and gave up just four home runs. Suppose Topa can replicate that success for Minnesota or even take another step forward. In that case, he will be a direct replacement for the 2023 version of Emilio Pagan and will provide Baldelli with a high-level option earlier in games. Needing a bridge for starters like Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani, who could have innings limits, is the type of arm a bullpen needs.

Like Topa, Jackson is a late bloomer in that he’s 36 years old and has yet to hit arbitration. A 2008 draft pick, Jackson didn’t make the majors until 2015, then reappeared in 2019 before finally working 29 2/3 innings last season with the Blue Jays. Jackson posted a 2.12 ERA for Toronto in 2023, but his 4.20 FIP suggests some smoke and mirrors to that number.

Jackson put up similar strikeout and walk numbers to Topa, but he allowed home runs at twice the frequency. He’s not an exceptionally hard-throwing player, and there isn’t a reason to expect he’ll work deeper into the group's hierarchy. However, if Jackson can substantiate his 2023 performance, he would give depth options like Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk more time to hone in at the Triple-A level.

Speaking of a left-handed arm, the Twins did well to grab another pitcher from the Marlins when they sent out-of-options Nick Gordon to Miami. Steven Okert pairs with Thielbar as a relief southpaw, and Baldelli now has another option. The former Marlin has racked up strikeouts throughout his career, and despite the 4.45 ERA last season, he put up a 2.89 ERA the two seasons prior. Over the past three years, his FIP has remained over 4.00, and he gives up a good deal of dingers, but there’s a good arm here if he can keep the ball in the yard.

One of Minnesota's relief corps's most significant question marks may be former Kansas City Royals reliever Josh Staumont. He is no longer the fireballing high-leverage guy; he is also past the thoracic outlet surgery he underwent and has a clean bill of health. The hope would be that he can make a new arsenal work after having pitched injured for quite some time.

At his best in 2021, Staumont was a guy who struck out a ton of batters with a good amount of velocity. He has never allowed many home runs, but in the past two seasons, the command and control within the zone have escaped him. A new offering may be on the table this year, and, if his arm is healthy, then a new level of effectiveness could also be expected.

For as deep as the Twins rotation was a season ago, the bullpen could experience that depth this season, and Baldelli will have the opportunity to get creative when working matchups on a game-by-game basis.