Is David Festa the Guy for the Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins needed to focus on making a significant pitching addition to supplement the starting rotation. They largely ignored that reality and go into the season with some questions, but could pitching prospect David Festa provide plenty of the answers?

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

There is no denying that the Minnesota starting rotation is substantially weaker than it was a season ago. Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are both gone. Gray signing for significant dollars into his late thirties would always make him a non-starter for the Twins front office. Maeda could have been retained on a one-year deal, but he sought security and got that with the Detroit Tigers.

The back end of Rocco Baldelli’s rotation has many more questions than it did a season ago. While Chris Paddack should be able to produce at least, if not better, than what Maeda did a year ago, his durability remains a question. Acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade with San Diego, Paddack was great for Minnesota before blowing out and needing Tommy John surgery, but how much he looks that part remains to be seen.

Acquiring Anthony DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade was representative of total value. Derek Falvey did a great job extracting something from Seattle in exchange for Polanco, but it’s hard to see the current roster being better for it, and DeSclafani isn’t going to move the needle even if he’s healthy.

Last year, Minnesota saw how much depth can help prop up a team, and with a lesser group at the top, they’ll likely need to rely on that even more. Jordan Balazovic and Simeon Woods Richardson were there before him, but David Festa is the latest in the line of top Twins pitching prospects looking to make their mark. It’s debatable whether he’s the best starting prospect in the organization, but there’s no questioning that he could be the next man up.

A former 13th-round pick and never having appeared on a major top 100 prospect list, Festa got his flowers as a selection for the Futures Game last year. He posted a 4.39 ERA at Double-A, and his 11.7 K/9 reflected stuff that could get good hitters out. His time at Triple-A St. Paul was brief, and although he made just three starts to end the year, the 15 strikeouts across just 12 1/3 innings were noteworthy.

Although he is in big-league camp as a non-roster invitee, there isn’t an immediate path for him to make the major-league roster. He may be behind Louie Varland regarding Triple-A call-ups from the rotation, but a strong run of double-digit starts could have him immediately in the Twins plans. While Festa doesn’t have the ceiling of an ace in Minnesota, he shouldn’t be expected to be just a mop-up, back-end guy.

As with any prospect promotion, there is plenty of promise and excitement until the league suggests otherwise. Festa’s eventual start should rival something like Kyle Gibson’s debut. Although there was more national fanfare for Gibson, Festa could command a number two or three role in Minnesota’s rotation. That would go a long way toward supplementing Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. 

A year ago, Baldelli could get length from his starters and turned to just 10 different players at the beginning of a game. Six of the 10 starters made at least double-digit appearances, and any franchise would sign up for that level of consistency. This Twins group isn’t as guaranteed, and seeing more arms necessary is a likely outcome. The bullpen is a much better group, so they could be relied upon heavily, but adding double-digit turns from Festa because the results warranted it would be great to see.

Despite being available on the open market, Minnesota isn’t signing Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell. They may find a way to add a top-tier arm at the trade deadline, but they’ll need to hold serve internally before getting there. Festa parlaying some spring training success into quick production out of the gate with St. Paul would be awesome. Entering his fourth year in pro ball and looking to set a new career-high in innings pitched, Festa will have every opportunity to show that the bulk of them can come at Target Field.

A late-season addition of a Dallas Keuchel type, or consistently cycling players to the mound as in 2022, becomes less necessary if the depth is capable of more than just availability. Festa may be a prime reflection of that, and the hope is we see the minor league success translate to the next level.

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[JD-TWINS]

Festa looked really good in an edited version of his action at the Futures game. Really good stuff!……..seems he needs work on command?

IMO, Paddack is every bit as reliable, health wise, to Kenta Maeda at this point. That said, since 3 other guys were all 3 core starters from last year, the doom & gloom about health with this year’s rotation is somewhat unwarranted. I’m saying it’s not any different than last season when Maeda wasn’t ready early & Mahle went down after 2 weeks. Gray was always a risk and was somewhat of a pleasant surprise with his good health over 2 seasons.

DeSclafani/Varland/FESTA/SWR all seem to be meshing together to add total innings well over and above Gray’s 184 innings. 80/90/50/30 out of those 4 guys seems very plausible with the options available with the latter 3 guys. If they can throw 230-250 innings in 42-44 starts that would be great. Can they go 18-18 in those 44 starts? Team goes 22-22 and all is good!………..Team was 15-18 in Gray’s starts in ‘23.

[tony&rodney]

A year ago, the Twins had questions about Lopez and Ober, Maeda and Mahle were either coming back from injury or feeling a little sore, and the Twins felt pretty solid about both Gray and Ryan. Varland and Woods Richardson were seen as depth. 

On February 24, the Twins feel really good about Lopez, Ryan, and Ober, have hopes and questions about Paddack and DeSclafani, have a really good guy in Varland, and have depth with Woods Richardson and Festa.

I'm a huge fan of David Festa. I had speculated that Festa's offseason would be important for him to refine his pitches and add useful weight and strength. Thus far, I haven't read or heard any reports on Festa. His starts were often quite impressive last season for Wichita, but his stamina and focus seemed to wander after a while. Festa could be a strong mid rotation pitcher with a little luck. Seems possible that Festa gets at least a half dozen starts with the Twins this summer.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I hate the same tired argument, the SP is so much worse without Maeda and Gray.  Maeda was an arm last year and nothing more and was injured for part of it.  Gray, performance wise was great, W-L can be achieved relatively easily with better offensive production.   Paddack is looking good again.  I am cautiously optimistic on Desclafani.  If he is the early 2023 version or the 2021 version he is obviously moving the needle.  The new pitches don't look great in spring training so far.  I think he can give us what Maeda gave us last year, and we have Varland to fill in when need be.  

Festa is 2 years away from helping us is my best guess.  

[FlyingFinn]

21 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Festa is 2 years away from helping us is my best guess.  

Disagree. Festa needs to be helping the Twins by 2025. If he's two years away and still in AAA for all of 2025, he's being surpassed by other guys.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

15 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Disagree. Festa needs to be helping the Twins by 2025. If he's two years away and still in AAA for all of 2025, he's being surpassed by other guys.

Sorry Semantics.  2nd year for me is 2025.   And just helping out in a Varland role.    Varland if stays a starter will fill in Desclafani's spot.  Then Festa would move up.   

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Festa looked really good in an edited version of his action at the Futures game. Really good stuff!……..seems he needs work on command?

IMO, Paddack is every bit as reliable, health wise, to Kenta Maeda at this point. That said, since 3 other guys were all 3 core starters from last year, the doom & gloom about health with this year’s rotation is somewhat unwarranted. I’m saying it’s not any different than last season when Maeda wasn’t ready early & Mahle went down after 2 weeks. Gray was always a risk and was somewhat of a pleasant surprise with his good health over 2 seasons.

DeSclafani/Varland/FESTA/SWR all seem to be meshing together to add total innings well over and above Gray’s 184 innings. 80/90/50/30 out of those 4 guys seems very plausible with the options available with the latter 3 guys. If they can throw 230-250 innings in 42-44 starts that would be great. Can they go 18-18 in those 44 starts? Team goes 22-22 and all is good!………..Team was 15-18 in Gray’s starts in ‘23.

The hand wringing of not getting a gray replacement has gotten really old. Its a different season. Just as likely to have a major step forward as backwards. 

[old nurse]

DeScalfini has had 3 different years of sub 4 ERA. He could be that or he could be a Shoemaker like piece of toast. Festa will need stats at the mlb level to continue his development just like Varland will need.

[DocBauer]

Don't most young pitching prospects always need a little more control, or a little more work on something? Not often they come up and throw like seasoned All Stars as rookies. There has been some references made as to Festa losing control the longer he's in the game, and sometimes velocity. I think they're the same thing as I do wonder/worry a bit about him just having enough size/strength/endurance to maintain that velocity and control a full 5 IP or more. If he can do that, he's going to be just fine! He's got the pitches and the results so far in his milb career. I think he's probably for his first real shot late sometime in June. At least, I sure hope he isn't needed until then. That means the Twins rotation is healthy and good.

But I'm not so certain that Canterino doesn't surpass Festa by mid-season. I know it sounds almost crazy, but if he really and truly is fully healthy, there may not be a better arm in the system. While his time at AA in 2022 was limited, the results were just crazy good while he was there!

 

Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	W	L	W-L%	ERA	RA9	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W

24

-0.5

Wichita

TL

AA

MIN

0

1

.000

1.83

2.10

11

10

0

0

0

0

34.1

17

8

7

1

22

0

50

0

0

5

144

1.136

4.5

0.3

5.8

13.1

2.2

And that's while pitching hurt!

I'm speculating he gets about 4 starts at AA to settle in, and then moves to St Paul to begin May. A handful of starts in probably warmer weather and gets his feet under him, and then unleash him at the higher level. Now, they're going to have to mitigate his IP, obviously, but that's easier to do in the minors than at the ML level. I love Festa, but come July, Canterino might be the next man up after Varland, and not Festa.

 

[specialiststeve]

He finished last year in AAA... and had a sub 3 ERA. He will be on the shuttle this summer to the show when we need a spot starter. He has great stuff and should be a solid #3 if not better by the end of next year  if not by the end of the summer. 

He is very close. 

 

[jkcarew]

It’s good to have decent upside options with options.

And he’s also a reasonable reason to NOT pack the roster with iffy veterans.

[DocBauer]

50 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

It’s good to have decent upside options with options.

And he’s also a reasonable reason to NOT pack the roster with iffy veterans.

Agreed!

And I can see a crunch at St Paul with a combination of Varland, SWR, Festa, Hendrick, Dobnak, Ohl, and Canterino. And the Twins picked up a couple journeyman types to fill in the gaps, which standard procedure. And it's possible Ohl and Canterino will begin at AA to get in a groove, and simply to have some depth for the first month just to get things going. 

But might it not be smart to offer a milb contract/split deal with an opt out, roll of the dice option, for someone like Odorizzi, Cueto, Keller, etc, to try and prove they can still get the job done? 

I'm not sold yet on SWR despite youth, a decent 2nd half to 2023, changing his arm slot, etc. I'm not sold on Festa or Canterino early, etc. And I HOPE we don't need a SP until June or July. But Ober was up pretty quick last year. Varland followed pretty close. I don't want the Twins to sign a fringe guy with any $ they might have left. Agreed on that! But wouldn't it be nice to have a cheap FA rebound signing like Odorizzi, for example, sitting at AAA come June, looking pretty solid and maybe ready for his rebound shot, rather than hoping SWR, Festa, and anyone else being pressed in to duty?

Hell, I'm pretty encouraged about the pitching depth at St Paul. I'm just leary about most of them being ready to make a real contribution before June/July 1st.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Don't most young pitching prospects always need a little more control, or a little more work on something? Not often they come up and throw like seasoned All Stars as rookies. There has been some references made as to Festa losing control the longer he's in the game, and sometimes velocity. I think they're the same thing as I do wonder/worry a bit about him just having enough size/strength/endurance to maintain that velocity and control a full 5 IP or more. If he can do that, he's going to be just fine! He's got the pitches and the results so far in his milb career. I think he's probably for his first real shot late sometime in June. At least, I sure hope he isn't needed until then. That means the Twins rotation is healthy and good.

But I'm not so certain that Canterino doesn't surpass Festa by mid-season. I know it sounds almost crazy, but if he really and truly is fully healthy, there may not be a better arm in the system. While his time at AA in 2022 was limited, the results were just crazy good while he was there!

 

Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	W	L	W-L%	ERA	RA9	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W

24

-0.5

Wichita

TL

AA

MIN

0

1

.000

1.83

2.10

11

10

0

0

0

0

34.1

17

8

7

1

22

0

50

0

0

5

144

1.136

4.5

0.3

5.8

13.1

2.2

And that's while pitching hurt!

I'm speculating he gets about 4 starts at AA to settle in, and then moves to St Paul to begin May. A handful of starts in probably warmer weather and gets his feet under him, and then unleash him at the higher level. Now, they're going to have to mitigate his IP, obviously, but that's easier to do in the minors than at the ML level. I love Festa, but come July, Canterino might be the next man up after Varland, and not Festa.

 

Its fun watching all these young guys on the cusp of MLB.  Several young pitchers maybe too good to be sent down by the end of the season. Much like the ‘23 rookie crop of position players, the ‘24 rookies could be lead by pitchers. and then Lee and Martin doing their thing in the field. Oh the possibilities!!!

[jimbo92107]

Actually, this should be the start of a long string of draft picks that have a good chance to contribute in the Valvine and Flannel era. Festa is another guy in the mold that the FO selected for the physical characteristics they project to be successful. Clearly they are big, strong guys that have at least one dominant pitch, but also get guys out. However, the formula must be a bit more complicated. Varland, Sands and Winder all fit the model. Ober fits, tho he's a bit taller than average. And so on. Point is, there enough of them in the pipeline now to make it unnecessary to look outside the organization for average to good veteran pitchers. 

[Jeff K]

18 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I hate the same tired argument, the SP is so much worse without Maeda and Gray.  Maeda was an arm last year and nothing more and was injured for part of it.  Gray, performance wise was great, W-L can be achieved relatively easily with better offensive production.   Paddack is looking good again.  I am cautiously optimistic on Desclafani.  If he is the early 2023 version or the 2021 version he is obviously moving the needle.  The new pitches don't look great in spring training so far.  I think he can give us what Maeda gave us last year, and we have Varland to fill in when need be.  

Festa is 2 years away from helping us is my best guess.  

I am done with the argument as well.  St. Louis overpaid for their starting pitching.  If needed, the Twins will make a move at the trade deadline.  And Maeda was a typical 5 last year.  We've got two guys who seemingly can replace him.

[HrbieFan]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Don't most young pitching prospects always need a little more control, or a little more work on something? Not often they come up and throw like seasoned All Stars as rookies. There has been some references made as to Festa losing control the longer he's in the game, and sometimes velocity. I think they're the same thing as I do wonder/worry a bit about him just having enough size/strength/endurance to maintain that velocity and control a full 5 IP or more. If he can do that, he's going to be just fine! He's got the pitches and the results so far in his milb career. I think he's probably for his first real shot late sometime in June. At least, I sure hope he isn't needed until then. That means the Twins rotation is healthy and good.

But I'm not so certain that Canterino doesn't surpass Festa by mid-season. I know it sounds almost crazy, but if he really and truly is fully healthy, there may not be a better arm in the system. While his time at AA in 2022 was limited, the results were just crazy good while he was there!

 

Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	W	L	W-L%	ERA	RA9	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W

24

-0.5

Wichita

TL

AA

MIN

0

1

.000

1.83

2.10

11

10

0

0

0

0

34.1

17

8

7

1

22

0

50

0

0

5

144

1.136

4.5

0.3

5.8

13.1

2.2

And that's while pitching hurt!

I'm speculating he gets about 4 starts at AA to settle in, and then moves to St Paul to begin May. A handful of starts in probably warmer weather and gets his feet under him, and then unleash him at the higher level. Now, they're going to have to mitigate his IP, obviously, but that's easier to do in the minors than at the ML level. I love Festa, but come July, Canterino might be the next man up after Varland, and not Festa.

 

Festa needs to master the minors first. He has had stretches, but so has SWR. If Festa can reduce the walk rate and become an anchor in St Paul, then I'll view him as a legit rotation option 

[Linus]

35 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Festa needs to master the minors first. He has had stretches, but so has SWR. If Festa can reduce the walk rate and become an anchor in St Paul, then I'll view him as a legit rotation option 

I agree with this but we are likely to see him this year ready or not. He’s on the 40 man and is likely next up after Varland so we are two injuries away. 

[jmlease1]

Festa has the stuff and the pitches to be successful in MLB, and I expect to see him in 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if he wobbles a bit in his first taste, but that's also not the sort of thing that will necessarily downgrade him. What will be interesting to me is how he does with his command in AAA. If he can get the BBs down to 3 or so per 9 then his stuff will play and he's be on a great path to be in the rotation in 2025. And if AAA has the same tight automatic zone as last season, then if he's able to compete effectively there and command his pitches then he'll be looking up.

Festa does a great job of keeping the ball in the park and he's not super hittable. He hunts Ks effectively and has the pitches to get really good hitters out. But he's got to sharpen that command and avoid too many free passes. I'll be watching his WHIP this season to see where he's landing.

I think Canterino has the stuff to be more dominant, and Raya might be as well, but until Canterino shows he can stay healthy and Raya shows he can throw 5+ innings consistently then Festa is the best prospect we have to add to the rotation in the near term. Hope one of these promising starters can transition into the rotation for next season.

[Jocko87]

I can't hate this opening paragraph more. The chotzpah is stunning. Three hypotheticals expressed as pure fact in two sentences is impressive.

Looking forward to seeing Festa get some action against major league hitters. Would be interested in some bullpen exposure with the big club but with no room there maybe the Kuechel role is an option.

[Thebigalguy]

These guys come and go / Dreaming of The Big O (Ohtani). Watching them try to rise like whole grain bread is why we love the game. Festa isn't ready yet but if he has the drive and is teachable, improvement should be obvious this year. Spring training will give him a taste for it; addicted, if he's made of the right stuff, he'll grab hold of the ring, whether it's brass or copper or just an AI illusion. Fun to watch.

[Seth Stohs]

My guess is Festa is going into spring training quite a ways down the SP depth chart: 

1-4: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack
5-6: DeSclafani, Varland 

7: Headrick
8: SWR
9: David Festa 

Two months into the season, I could see Festa having surpassed a couple of guys and then it all depends on injuries and performance above. 

If there aren't too many injuries... I think Festa could be a mid-August callup to the bullpen if they want another power arm and depending on where he is at innings-wise too. 

[saviking]

I'm sure there is a lot to like about David Fiesta; that last mile between Triple-A and the majors is a doozy. How many promising starting pitchers have we seen come up through the system only to get to the Pearly Gates and come up short, either flaming out or turned into a bullpen arm? 

Look at our current group .. 

Jax Griffin. .. bullpen

Josh Winder .. bullpen

Cole Sands .. Bullpen

Johan Durhan

===========

What are the odds Woods Richardsons will make it? As of now, although they would like Varland to be the fifth starter at some point this season, we know how much value he has as a back and reliever.

Currently, we have one, count it, one starter we developed in our system on the starting five. Baily Ober .. So, is David Fiesta going to be the answer? I guess we can always hope ..

 

 

[gil4]

I like that jersey in the photo.  It seems I remember one similar in light blue - does anyone know what they called those jerseys / what the occasion was?