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There is no denying that the Minnesota starting rotation is substantially weaker than it was a season ago. Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are both gone. Gray signing for significant dollars into his late thirties would always make him a non-starter for the Twins front office. Maeda could have been retained on a one-year deal, but he sought security and got that with the Detroit Tigers.
The back end of Rocco Baldelli’s rotation has many more questions than it did a season ago. While Chris Paddack should be able to produce at least, if not better, than what Maeda did a year ago, his durability remains a question. Acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade with San Diego, Paddack was great for Minnesota before blowing out and needing Tommy John surgery, but how much he looks that part remains to be seen.
Acquiring Anthony DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade was representative of total value. Derek Falvey did a great job extracting something from Seattle in exchange for Polanco, but it’s hard to see the current roster being better for it, and DeSclafani isn’t going to move the needle even if he’s healthy.
Last year, Minnesota saw how much depth can help prop up a team, and with a lesser group at the top, they’ll likely need to rely on that even more. Jordan Balazovic and Simeon Woods Richardson were there before him, but David Festa is the latest in the line of top Twins pitching prospects looking to make their mark. It’s debatable whether he’s the best starting prospect in the organization, but there’s no questioning that he could be the next man up.
A former 13th-round pick and never having appeared on a major top 100 prospect list, Festa got his flowers as a selection for the Futures Game last year. He posted a 4.39 ERA at Double-A, and his 11.7 K/9 reflected stuff that could get good hitters out. His time at Triple-A St. Paul was brief, and although he made just three starts to end the year, the 15 strikeouts across just 12 1/3 innings were noteworthy.
Although he is in big-league camp as a non-roster invitee, there isn’t an immediate path for him to make the major-league roster. He may be behind Louie Varland regarding Triple-A call-ups from the rotation, but a strong run of double-digit starts could have him immediately in the Twins plans. While Festa doesn’t have the ceiling of an ace in Minnesota, he shouldn’t be expected to be just a mop-up, back-end guy.
As with any prospect promotion, there is plenty of promise and excitement until the league suggests otherwise. Festa’s eventual start should rival something like Kyle Gibson’s debut. Although there was more national fanfare for Gibson, Festa could command a number two or three role in Minnesota’s rotation. That would go a long way toward supplementing Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober.
A year ago, Baldelli could get length from his starters and turned to just 10 different players at the beginning of a game. Six of the 10 starters made at least double-digit appearances, and any franchise would sign up for that level of consistency. This Twins group isn’t as guaranteed, and seeing more arms necessary is a likely outcome. The bullpen is a much better group, so they could be relied upon heavily, but adding double-digit turns from Festa because the results warranted it would be great to see.
Despite being available on the open market, Minnesota isn’t signing Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell. They may find a way to add a top-tier arm at the trade deadline, but they’ll need to hold serve internally before getting there. Festa parlaying some spring training success into quick production out of the gate with St. Paul would be awesome. Entering his fourth year in pro ball and looking to set a new career-high in innings pitched, Festa will have every opportunity to show that the bulk of them can come at Target Field.
A late-season addition of a Dallas Keuchel type, or consistently cycling players to the mound as in 2022, becomes less necessary if the depth is capable of more than just availability. Festa may be a prime reflection of that, and the hope is we see the minor league success translate to the next level.
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