What Does a “Right-Sized” Payroll Do to the Twins’ Future?

[John Bonnes]

If you thought this offseason was depressing, wait until next year. 

Image courtesy of © David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

FORT MYERS--Reality delivered a slap in the face to Twins Territory yesterday, and followed it up with an eye-gouge for good measure. First, fans hoping for some late-offseason roster additions were told in no uncertain terms by ownership that the Twins will not sign one of the remaining big free agents. But the bad news didn’t end there.

“But without a question, the television situation is having an impact on our business,” Joe Pohlad explained to Jason DeRusha on WCCO radio. “But beyond that, we’re also just trying to right-size our business.”

Those last three words are chilling to anyone who has followed the Twins' growth into a contender, because that growth has included spending money. Over the last two years, they've invested additional dollars into big contracts for players like Byron Buxton, Pablo López, and Carlos Correa.

"Right-size" means this dormant offseason isn’t a one-year blip. It means the team is, as Pohlad said later in the show, “going to live pretty much where we’re at right now.”

Right now, the Twins payroll, per our Back-of-the-Napkin calculations below, sits at about $122M. There is some thought that the Twins could add another player to bring the payroll closer to $130M, though that is less likely as faith grows in internal outfield options. As things sit right now, that figure breaks down as follows:

The roster picture gets a little murkier as we look forward a year to 2025. Still, thanks to guaranteed contracts, arbitration estimates, and a few reasonable assumptions like “free agents tend to leave,” as Peter Labuza wrote for us yesterday, the picture is clearer than one might expect. 

That doesn’t mean it’s pretty.

If the Twins want to retain the core of their team for 2025, payroll will need to climb to around $139M next year. That projection already assumes some significant departures and replacements by cheaper options. For instance, Max Kepler, who is in the last year of a $10-million contract, leaves and is replaced by Trevor Larnach. It makes similar assumptions about Kyle Farmer ($6.3 million), Carlos Santana ($5.25 million), and Anthony DeSclafani ($4 million). But payroll still climbs $17 million over this year’s level, even if they don’t bring any free agents in.

Why? Because many of the Twins’ core players will likely get mandated raises next year through arbitration. These include Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Duran, and Griffin Jax. Here are the projections:

A “right-sized” payroll means that not only did the Twins have almost nothing to spend this past offseason, but they could have absolutely nothing to spend next year--or, worse, less than nothing, meaning they would need to trade away a player to free up payroll, as they did with Jorge Polanco this offseason. 

It’s also worth noting that this all represents, in most cases, a best-case scenario. It assumes Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis continue to thrive; that Brooks Lee and Louis Varland can earn MLB spots despite likely starting in Triple A; and that Ober, Ryan, and Chris Paddack all stay healthy and productive enough to become fixtures in the rotation. 

In short, it violates Minnesota sports fans’ implicit knowledge that “what can go wrong will go wrong.” It is implicit knowledge that was verified yesterday when ownership made clear that they were kneecapping - er, right-sizing - a team who made it to the ALDS last year.

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[FlyingFinn]

Vazquez at $10 million and Castro at $5 million would certainly be candidates to be moved if their replacements in AAA look good this year, though if Castro plays like last year I wouldn't want to see that happen.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I have a hard time with "sky is falling" type articles. 

They do have a good team, and they have shown they will be open to acquiring talent. I don't really much care what the payroll number is year to year. If/when they do acquire a playoff level starter (between now and the August 1 deadline) I don't care if that pitcher earns 5 million or 30 million in 2024 or 2025.

They have a good team with a lot of young players who are of high quality. That's a good thing.

[DJL44]

"Right-sized" would be about 15-18 in MLB. If they want to run a payroll less than $120M then signing Carlos Correa was a huge strategic mistake. Huge.

[DJL44]

Maybe they can "right-size" their television revenue instead of receiving the worst payout of any team in MLB.

[Major League Ready]

They were 22nd in revenue in 2022.  The number for 2023 should be out in the next 6 weeks.  They should be up a couple places and I suspect they should be around 18th on average.

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, John Bonnes said:

“But without a question, the television situation is having an impact on our business,” Joe Pohlad explained to Jason DeRusha on WCCO radio. “But beyond that, we’re also just trying to right-size our business.”

Those last three words are chilling to anyone who has followed the Twins' growth into a contender, because that growth has included spending money.

 

Honestly, the "right-size" part is less troublesome to me than the "business" part.

Obviously it's a business, all the franchises are. But other owners don't discuss it in those terms for one, because they know the optics are bad, but also, they do want to win and keep an engaged fan base. Instead they use terms like 'team', 'franchise', 'organization' or 'product'. 

I haven't been much of a Pohlad basher since about the time the Jim Pohald took over, but man, Joe Pohlad is really giving off John Fisher/Robert Nutting vibes this year.

[Schmoeman5]

Wait till next year! You stole my line. Haha. And what's even better than that. Those no-trade contracts. If it seems to those players that the team is staying stagnant or regressing. They'd be waived in a heartbeat if there were interested takers

[sorney]

I just don't get the Correa signing then......You sign a guy like that, in his prime, you maximize that prime, otherwise, just save the $30M a year.  So much fun being a Twins fan

[Beast]

The Pohlads deserve to see the stadium completely empty this season.  Fans should vote with their pocket books and force these guys out by making this year an absolute financial disaster.  Anyone who attends a game should boo and hiss mercilessly.

I’m out on this crap.  Not spending a dime on this cut-rate franchise.  I’ll take every opportunity to convince any person I come across to do the same.  So tired of hearing this corporate money-grubbing drivel out of their mouths every offseason.

This franchise is a joke.  The 2024 season is already over, and everyone here know it.  But, everyone is so desperate for entertainment and addicted to the crap product they delude themselves into thinking they’re doing what’s best for the franchise.

[nicksaviking]

Also, I've been wanting a replacement for Dave St. Peter for a long time and have recently ripped him for the final broadcast deal that didn't match up with what the team was telling us would happen just days prior to them agreeing to it. But is it possible St. Peter had intended to go with a MLB deal, avoid blackouts and take in less TV revenue, and then at the last minute Joe stepped in and said, "No, were taking the money"?

[IndianaTwin]

From the OP:
It’s also worth noting that this all represents, in most cases, a best-case scenario. It assumes Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis continue to thrive; that Brooks Lee and Louis Varland can earn MLB spots despite likely starting in Triple A; and that Ober, Ryan, and Chris Paddack all stay healthy and productive enough to become fixtures in the rotation.

 

-------------------------------------------------

Um, if a) Varland, Ober, Ryan and Paddack are healthy and productive and join Lopez in the rotation; b) Wallner, Julien and Lewis thrive; c) they are joined by Lee (and Kirilloff/Larnach/Martin; and d) implied is that Correa, Buxton, Garver/Vazquez are successful, it's not like they have a huge need for other big expenditures.

I'm with @Cory Engelhardt. Let's hold off on the sky is falling articles. We have all of next offseason for those...    

[chpettit19]

Do the Twins not have PR people? Why are they allowing St Peter and Pohlad out to talk about these things? Whether there's reasonable explanations for any of their decisions or not, it is just such terrible messaging over and over out of the business department folks. Let Falvey and Levine do the talking, and have them stick to the patented "ownership gives us all the tools we need to compete" line and pump up the roster. 

"Tone-deaf" and "right-size" are phrases just begging to be spun around and used against them. Especially when it comes 2 offseasons after St Peter publicly questioned fan support for a team that completely collapsed and ended up 14 games back in a horrible division the year after it finished dead last and 20 games back in a horrible division. Just stay in your offices and figure out how to get your product in front of more people.

[farmerguychris]

This reminds me of a poll I brought up here a few months back and didn't get much feedback on.  My question was something like ' Do the owners care if they ever win another championship, or only if they make money".  

Yes, its a business.  We know that.  However, it makes it harder to be a fan when they so obviously demonstrate this is literally just another business to them - the fans don't matter.  If we win, we win, if we don't....well, at least we got richer.  

Got the 20 year monkey off our back, so back to my original question - Do they (the owners) care if we ever win another championship, or do they only care if they make money every year?

 

[Major League Ready]

34 minutes ago, Beast said:

The Pohlads deserve to see the stadium completely empty this season.  Fans should vote with their pocket books and force these guys out by making this year an absolute financial disaster.  Anyone who attends a game should boo and hiss mercilessly.

I’m out on this crap.  Not spending a dime on this cut-rate franchise.  I’ll take every opportunity to convince any person I come across to do the same.  So tired of hearing this corporate money-grubbing drivel out of their mouths every offseason.

This franchise is a joke.  The 2024 season is already over, and everyone here know it.  But, everyone is so desperate for entertainment and addicted to the crap product they delude themselves into thinking they’re doing what’s best for the franchise.

Sure would like to see your hissy fit backed up with supporting data.  In other words, show us the Twins spend less per dollar of revenue than other teams.  My bet is that you have never bothered to validate your opinion because if you had you would know this isn't true.  Never ever has anyone here ever backed up this kind of irrational dribble with actual fact.  

It's also curious that we seem to readily accept that the vast majority of players are fighting for every dime.  We accept that it's a business for them but we don't accept a business owner treating it like a business.  Why the totally different response to players?

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Got the 20 year monkey off our back, so back to my original question - Do they (the owners) care if we ever win another championship, or do they only care if they make money every year?

I'm sure they would like to win another championship, but only if it doesn't cost them any money.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It's also curious that we seem to readily accept that the vast majority of players are fighting for every dime.  We accept that it's a business for them but we don't accept a business owner treating it like a business.  Why the totally different response to players?

I haven't ever had a baseball player demand public funding. Whenever an owner comes calling with his hand out it's a "community asset" not a business.

[Mike Sixel]

Likely it does nothing good. You can be competitive without spending in the top half, but you aren't winning it all. 

[Doctor Gast]

The biggest problem is teams like LAD can come in & swoop up these FAs on the cheap. Creating more disparity. 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

The Pohlads deserve to see the stadium completely empty this season.  Fans should vote with their pocket books and force these guys out by making this year an absolute financial disaster.  Anyone who attends a game should boo and hiss mercilessly.

I’m out on this crap.  Not spending a dime on this cut-rate franchise.  I’ll take every opportunity to convince any person I come across to do the same.  So tired of hearing this corporate money-grubbing drivel out of their mouths every offseason.

This franchise is a joke.  The 2024 season is already over, and everyone here know it.  But, everyone is so desperate for entertainment and addicted to the crap product they delude themselves into thinking they’re doing what’s best for the franchise.

Well, I certainly respect your frustration.  It would be nice if the message from “The Nephew” were different. But it wasn’t.

I guess your choices are to: a) make a bunch of money, buy the Twins and run the team your way; b) leave the Twins and pick a new team to follow that more aligns with your expectations of ownership (Mets or Dodgers might be a good place to start); or c) maybe try to change your attitude a little bit so you don’t find your long-term team so frustrating (because, well, that’s neither healthy nor fun).  Personally, I’ve adopted c) a long time ago and am still working on a) - lol.

In any event, we’d hate to lose you as a fellow TDer.  But if that’s the case, best of luck to you.

[Nashvilletwin]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Likely it does nothing good. You can be competitive without spending in the top half, but you aren't winning it all. 

I’m not sure history supports that conclusion.  But directionally, you are, of course, correct.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

b) leave the Twins and pick a new team to follow that more aligns with your expectations of ownership (Mets or Dodgers might be a good place to start);

It's currently cheaper and easier for me to follow the Cardinals or Brewers on TV than it is to follow the Twins. If I follow the Brewers, I can even see them play at Target Field every season.

[Nashvilletwin]

32 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I haven't ever had a baseball player demand public funding. Whenever an owner comes calling with his hand out it's a "community asset" not a business.

The world is full of these hypocrisies.  Everywhere you look.  But the sad truth is that there is a market for MLB franchises from municipalities.  Can’t escape that.  Too bad it’s not different. 
 

What did our late, great Happy Warrior, Hubert Humphrey, say? I think it was if the Twin Cities lost the Twins and Vikings, “we’d be a cold Omaha”.  

[Nashvilletwin]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's currently cheaper and easier for me to follow the Cardinals or Brewers on TV than it is to follow the Twins. If I follow the Brewers, I can even see them play at Target Field every season.

Perf!  Go for it Roy! (Tin Cup reference).

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The world is full of these hypocrisies.  Everywhere you look.  But the sad truth is that there is a market for MLB franchises from municipalities.  Can’t escape that.  Too bad it’s not different. 

So, I should just enjoy that wealthy people are horrible hypocrites and reward them for that behavior?

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

"Right-sized" would be about 15-18 in MLB. If they want to run a payroll less than $120M then signing Carlos Correa was a huge strategic mistake. Huge.

This

[Major League Ready]

47 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I haven't ever had a baseball player demand public funding. Whenever an owner comes calling with his hand out it's a "community asset" not a business.

I don't think there should be public funding but the premise that this is the differentiator is very hard to believe.  Do you understand that if there was no public funding that expense would be paid for by reducing player salaries?  

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Do the Twins not have PR people? Why are they allowing St Peter and Pohlad out to talk about these things? Whether there's reasonable explanations for any of their decisions or not, it is just such terrible messaging over and over out of the business department folks. Let Falvey and Levine do the talking, and have them stick to the patented "ownership gives us all the tools we need to compete" line and pump up the roster. 

"Tone-deaf" and "right-size" are phrases just begging to be spun around and used against them. Especially when it comes 2 offseasons after St Peter publicly questioned fan support for a team that completely collapsed and ended up 14 games back in a horrible division the year after it finished dead last and 20 games back in a horrible division. Just stay in your offices and figure out how to get your product in front of more people.

Agreed... they do need to get better at the PR game and the PR game is typically best played by shutting up.

Yet... at the same time we have folks... lots of them right here on twinsdaily who demand the "Truth" only to tear them to pieces when they speak... Worse than when they don't speak.  

I still hope for a world where people can speak. I know it ain't coming and gone forever and how we react to little bits of information is why it ain't coming and gone forever.    

But... Agreed... they should just stay away from microphones, tik tok and the like. Let us stay in the dark because we can't handle the light. 

On what is really being implied by this article. I honestly don't care. The Twins have always had a budget that they operate with. I don't care if I know the exact budget because I've watched Twins payroll fall up and down in the same range with the same teams year after year.

I understand that there is a correlation between payroll and success but I hold no expectation that they will become the Padres and I am absolutely sure that the Padres paid for it with their future. 

You and I agree that this would have been a great time to add impact to the lineup. We have the depth built so adding at the top would be the natural progression for club improvement but I have never expected the Twins to exceed budgetary guidelines whatever those guidelines might be.

I'm OK with the Angels holding Anthony Rendon stock... I am more concerned with the trade of Polanco only to reallocate the savings into what are multiple lesser parts. We already have multiple lesser parts. 

In other words... it isn't the amount of money we have to spend... it's what we do with the amount of money we have to spend.     

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Sure would like to see your hissy fit backed up with supporting data.  In other words, show us the Twins spend less per dollar of revenue than other teams.  My bet is that you have never bothered to validate your opinion because if you had you would know this isn't true.  Never ever has anyone here ever backed up this kind of irrational dribble with actual fact.  

It's also curious that we seem to readily accept that the vast majority of players are fighting for every dime.  We accept that it's a business for them but we don't accept a business owner treating it like a business.  Why the totally different response to players?

I'll give it some time, but I'd like to re-evaluate this in terms of Jim Pohlad vs Joe Pohlad in a couple of years. This is what Jim said when he took over:

Meanwhile, this is what Joe just said;

TB and Baltimore? Why even go there? Why not just leave the bottom payroll teams unstated, is he trying to set expectations for the franchise that low going forward? I get that the situations are different, but should the tone? Even if Jim was just giving lip service, which I never thought he did, these two clearly listed their priorities in different orders.

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's currently cheaper and easier for me to follow the Cardinals or Brewers on TV than it is to follow the Twins. If I follow the Brewers, I can even see them play at Target Field every season.

It's ironic that we repeatedly hear followers here say they don't want to spend money on the team.  Yet, they expect more spending.  Many have said they would not pay $20 month while asking for a free agent that gets paid $5M/month.