What Does a “Right-Sized” Payroll Do to the Twins’ Future?

[Jocko87]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s going to take blind luck and existing pieces having career years like 1987 and 1991 to win a World Series now and in the future. 

Always has. Always will.

[JD-TWINS]

Recent Twin’s Payrolls & relative position v. other MLB teams, for 2nd straight day:

2019 - $119.6M. -  17 of 30 

2020 - Covid season with 60 games - 18 of 30

2021 - $125.3M  16th of 30

2022 - $134.4M  18th of 30

2023 - $154M  17th of 30

2024 - currently at $122M - (? guess 22 of 30)

Based on a 7% annual payroll increase, as an average, 2023 should have been $143M total spend & 2024 should be $153M. These two years & their totals are derived from where the Twins Payroll was from 2019 - 2022!

At this point, Team’s payroll is less than 2021’s spend of $125.3M. Cannot see how this is justifiable???? Am assuming if payroll stays at $122M, the organization’s position v. other 30 teams would be in the 22 of 30 range - will shake out in next month.

Probable payroll explanation for 2023 is BAM $$ - the team only spent $10M more than expected in ‘23 - they received $30M in BAM money so they pocketed or spent $20M elsewhere.

[ashbury]

In most businesses, "right-size" is just a cynical euphemism for layoffs.  Layoffs of perfectly good people, whose lives get put into upheaval for no better reason than someone who will never miss a meal decided that a business decision three years ago should be summarily thrown out.

I don't care so much about what effect it has on Twins payroll in 2024, since baseball is a totally different business than most.  It's the corrupt cynicism that "young" Joe Pohlad has been steeped in, which came out when he was groping for words, that I find offensive.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I am more concerned with the trade of Polanco only to reallocate the savings into what are multiple lesser parts. We already have multiple lesser parts. 

This is my concern as well. Add a player at the top if possible.

 

To the ongoing numbers debate ..... a jharaldson has a post on the sidebar on TD that uses links and numbers to question the expected 50% of revenue for players idea. Essentially (read the post) the posts states that revenue sharing sends near $110 miilion per year plus near $90 million per team for national media deals. I don't check these numbers but perhaps someone has a better handle on all of the numbers. When one adds $200 M to a guess of $40 M for a local tv deal and then adds in the Twins share of tickets, the numbers don't seem to square up.

Forbes (my simple opinion) is purely an entertainment magazine. 

We should expect businesses to operate for profit/gain in order to maintain employment and such. Pretty much all big corporations suck major money from the public in various formats and the public is nearly always happy to go along for the ride. 

Only the Pohlads CFO and a few others actually know the numbers and I'm not too sure we can come that close with our napkins. When Liberty Media took control of the Atlanta team and subsequently had to publicly report all of their financial information, it kind of exposed some funny numbers being reported by various media about MLB teams when the actual data was completely private.

Having no control, I try not to get up in arms. The 2024 Twins should be better than last year's team.

[Mike Sixel]

All y'all have staked out your positions for years on this topic. You have more stamina than me!

[Swimbo]

All I can really say is I feel like Clark Griswold towards the end of Christmas vacation.... hallelujah holy **** wheres the tylenol?

[Woof Bronzer]

I applaud Joe Pohlad for his honesty.  I rip the Pohlads when they lie and it's oddly refreshing to see the a Pohlad so baldly and concisely lay out their vision for the Twins.  Mentioning Tampa and Baltimore as models for success was no accident:  they had 2 of the lowest payrolls in baseball, and neither has won a World Series in Joe Pohlad's lifetime.  Success, to the Pohlads, has nothing to do with winning a World Series, and Joe wanted to make sure fans understand this.  I hope fans listen to him! 

[Doctor Evil]

Suffice to say this "right size the business" spoke volumes about the priorities of ownership. It would be great to feel like ownership was like a coiled snake looking for the right opportunity to push for a championship. That was a fart in church comment.  Show fans that you share their passion please.

[jkcarew]

Unless they can sign and draft amateurs, and then develop them…year after year… on a par with the likes of Tampa Bay, it’s not going to be pretty.

This is where it’s actually bad to be in the ALC…because the FO can pretend to compete year after year, without ACTUALLY competing. And the general fan base swallows that bait…while chalking up relatively frequent, but short, playoff runs to “bad luck”.

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

In most businesses, "right-size" is just a cynical euphemism for layoffs.  Layoffs of perfectly good people, whose lives get put into upheaval for no better reason than someone who will never miss a meal decided that a business decision three years ago should be summarily thrown out.

I don't care so much about what effect it has on Twins payroll in 2024, since baseball is a totally different business than most.  It's the corrupt cynicism that "young" Joe Pohlad has been steeped in, which came out when he was groping for words, that I find offensive.

Carl Pohlad did a lot of "right-sizing" when he foreclosed on family farms coming out of the Depression.  He enjoyed it so much that he returned to right-sizing in the 70s and 80s when he got into the fun world of corporate raiding.  And who can forget the Pohlads offering to "right-size" the Twins franchise via contraction if the city didn't pony up with some welfare for a new stadium.  You could say "right-sizing" is a Pohlad family tradition!

[Mike Sixel]

Also, Baltimore was terrible for years, and refused to invest in the team last year .... I'd guess their payroll is lower than the Twins....

[old nurse]

People forget, not Major League Ready, that the Twins got an influx of cash last year from BAM. One time money and they spent it. People have forgotten that Nick wrote a story on them losing money in 2022. In 2019 they drew over 2.3 million fans. They spent money to get them back. A division winning team dew under 2 million. The fans have spoken . 

[August J Gloop]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Sure would like to see your hissy fit backed up with supporting data.  In other words, show us the Twins spend less per dollar of revenue than other teams.  My bet is that you have never bothered to validate your opinion because if you had you would know this isn't true.  Never ever has anyone here ever backed up this kind of irrational dribble with actual fact.  

It's also curious that we seem to readily accept that the vast majority of players are fighting for every dime.  We accept that it's a business for them but we don't accept a business owner treating it like a business.  Why the totally different response to players?

Because the players work hard for their craft. They spend long hours for years getting great at baseball.

Joe Pohlad is a rich person who was born rich and is obviously not very good at the job he was gifted. Not hard to figure out why one would inspire support and the other derision. 

The rangers won the flippin world series and are slashing payroll. Winning isn't actually that valuable to the bottom line in the end. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

Unless they can sign and draft amateurs, and then develop them…year after year… on a par with the likes of Tampa Bay, it’s not going to be pretty.

This is where it’s actually bad to be in the ALC…because the FO can pretend to compete year after year, without ACTUALLY competing. And the general fan base swallows that bait…while chalking up relatively frequent, but short, playoff runs to “bad luck”.

I'll grant that it's a tight needle to thread and not actually been pulled off by anyone buts the Rays in a meaningful way. (Orioles are a different method)

I'll argue that they are pretending to compete.  This roster is legit and their competitiveness is not based on the AL central.  It takes quite a few years to turn over a team and we are at the point in this front office tenure where we should be seeing top to bottom results of their leadership.  I would argue that we are, and the results are very good. 

The level of talent has risen dramatically at every level. Are we depending on some youngsters to turn into superstars? Certainly.  But dammit, we have 11 youngsters with a chance to make it instead it of 2. If 3 of them make it, we will contend for championships every year.

They do have a chance to emulate the Rays. They have a chance to eclipse them considering the spending they have already undertaken.  It's a tough needle to thread, but until it goes wrong we should be cheering them emphatically. 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I'll grant that it's a tight needle to thread and not actually been pulled off by anyone buts the Rays in a meaningful way. (Orioles are a different method)

I'll argue that they are pretending to compete.  This roster is legit and their competitiveness is not based on the AL central.  It takes quite a few years to turn over a team and we are at the point in this front office tenure where we should be seeing top to bottom results of their leadership.  I would argue that we are, and the results are very good. 

The level of talent has risen dramatically at every level. Are we depending on some youngsters to turn into superstars? Certainly.  But dammit, we have 11 youngsters with a chance to make it instead it of 2. If 3 of them make it, we will contend for championships every year.

They do have a chance to emulate the Rays. They have a chance to eclipse them considering the spending they have already undertaken.  It's a tough needle to thread, but until it goes wrong we should be cheering them emphatically. 

If they were emulating the Ray's, Kepler would be traded. They aren't really emulating them. They need to pick a lane.

[Brandon]

Since all of the revenue is in the tv contracts those contracts should have a pay for ratings value.  If ratings are low they pay less if the ratings are high the revenue grows.  This would solve the payroll issues I think.

[TopTwinsFan]

11 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

From the OP:
It’s also worth noting that this all represents, in most cases, a best-case scenario. It assumes Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis continue to thrive; that Brooks Lee and Louis Varland can earn MLB spots despite likely starting in Triple A; and that Ober, Ryan, and Chris Paddack all stay healthy and productive enough to become fixtures in the rotation.

 

-------------------------------------------------

Um, if a) Varland, Ober, Ryan and Paddack are healthy and productive and join Lopez in the rotation; b) Wallner, Julien and Lewis thrive; c) they are joined by Lee (and Kirilloff/Larnach/Martin; and d) implied is that Correa, Buxton, Garver/Vazquez are successful, it's not like they have a huge need for other big expenditures.

I'm with @Cory Engelhardt. Let's hold off on the sky is falling articles. We have all of next offseason for those...    

Not calling out the greed driven, soulless money lovers that own are team is like seeing you country in the middle of a stupid war and believing it is more patriotic to support it than it is to express your outrage. 

Greed is greed and the evil Pohlad family that had made their fortune on foreclosing farms and homes now wants a higher percentage of what they make off our team to go directly in their pockets. 

I cant stop them but they are lying, greedy and the worst of society.

Like most rich people.

[TopTwinsFan]

Has anyone else who has heard the interview felt like it would have been easier for Joe Pohlad to send out a pic with him holding out his middle finger to his customers. Perhaps under a caption that reads. We hate you f####ing morons. 

They want to take advantage of the little boy/girl in all of us that love baseball and use it to add to their greed collection.

[TopTwinsFan]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they were emulating the Ray's, Kepler would be traded. They aren't really emulating them. They need to pick a lane.

They are emulating the Rays and O's quite nicely. Neither team has won a Championship in decades. (Rays have NEVER won one). That is Pohlad's Vision. 

[TopTwinsFan]

I have seen a lot of frustration with the Pohlads over my 40 years being a Twins fan. Those people were all right.

This offseason has been an awakening to how awful this family is. Now Joe Pohlad does an interview to tell Twins fans that he has begun hurting the team (reducing payroll drastically and that he and his billionaire family will continue to hurt the team far into the future.)

How cruel must you be to go on WCCO and brag about how much you hate Twins fans and how little you will invest in the product when you own the team.

[TopTwinsFan]

What does "Right Sizing the Twins Payroll Mean?"

We are greatly reducing the quality of the product we put on the field because there is absolutely nothing you can do about it and we are one of the greediest families on Earth.

 

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, TopTwinsFan said:

They are emulating the Rays and O's quite nicely. Neither team has won a Championship in decades. (Rays have NEVER won one). That is Pohlad's Vision. 

Which team with equivalent financial resources would you like them to emulate?   The four that have won the WS since the turn of the century are the dBacks (2001), Marlins (2003) the CHWS (2005), and the Royals (2015).

[Original_JB]

Less and less like the Senators, and more and more like the Generals as time goes by. 

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is my concern as well. Add a player at the top if possible.

 

To the ongoing numbers debate ..... a jharaldson has a post on the sidebar on TD that uses links and numbers to question the expected 50% of revenue for players idea. Essentially (read the post) the posts states that revenue sharing sends near $110 miilion per year plus near $90 million per team for national media deals. I don't check these numbers but perhaps someone has a better handle on all of the numbers. When one adds $200 M to a guess of $40 M for a local tv deal and then adds in the Twins share of tickets, the numbers don't seem to square up.

Forbes (my simple opinion) is purely an entertainment magazine. 

We should expect businesses to operate for profit/gain in order to maintain employment and such. Pretty much all big corporations suck major money from the public in various formats and the public is nearly always happy to go along for the ride. 

Only the Pohlads CFO and a few others actually know the numbers and I'm not too sure we can come that close with our napkins. When Liberty Media took control of the Atlanta team and subsequently had to publicly report all of their financial information, it kind of exposed some funny numbers being reported by various media about MLB teams when the actual data was completely private.

Having no control, I try not to get up in arms. The 2024 Twins should be better than last year's team.

I am not qualified to speak on the finances of any organization... including the place where I work and earn a living every single day.

With that I am reasonably certain of is this: Twins payroll falls up and down in a range and there are a group of teams that fall up and down in that same range. They have a budget, they have always had a budget. They spend on player salaries at a similar level of the teams in that grouping so I assume the whatever the Twins are using for their budget... they are not alone. I am simply not going to bang my head against that wall because the head wound from repeated banging won't knock the wall down and is therefore unnecessary because I also don't believe that this group of teams are too cheap to win.  

I read the back of the napkin math of jharaldson at your suggestion. 

He lost me when he attempted to use MSA data to support his conclusion. While I may not know anything about the finances of any organization. I do understand audience measurement. If anyone is using MSA, CSA or DMA data to bang their head against that wall... they are using faulty data so therefore the conclusion is faulty. . 

Now back to things that I don't understand which are finances that I don't have access to. 

If each team pools 48% of revenue and splits the total equally amongst the 30 teams. Shouldn't that 48% of revenue be a fairly large part of the equation.

I don't see any place where jharaldson mentions the 48%. Shouldn't that 48% of revenue that the Twins contribute to the revenue sharing pool go into that section where he tries to determine the Twins revenue by comparison with the Atlanta Braves using faulty Metropolitan Statistical Area methodology to come to his conclusion. 

 

[HrbieFan]

18 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have a hard time with "sky is falling" type articles. 

They do have a good team, and they have shown they will be open to acquiring talent. I don't really much care what the payroll number is year to year. If/when they do acquire a playoff level starter (between now and the August 1 deadline) I don't care if that pitcher earns 5 million or 30 million in 2024 or 2025.

They have a good team with a lot of young players who are of high quality. That's a good thing.

+1 to this ^^  No mention of where they rank, no mention of other teams screwed by Diamond, no mention of what streaming revenue could be. Twins Daily is better than Fat Pat style of writing! #amateurhour 

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I am not qualified to speak on the finances of any organization... including the place where I work and earn a living every single day.

With that I am reasonably certain of is this: Twins payroll falls up and down in a range and there are a group of teams that fall up and down in that same range. They have a budget, they have always had a budget. They spend on player salaries at a similar level of the teams in that grouping so I assume the whatever the Twins are using for their budget... they are not alone. I am simply not going to bang my head against that wall because the head wound from repeated banging won't knock the wall down and is therefore unnecessary because I also don't believe that this group of teams are too cheap to win.  

I read the back of the napkin math of jharaldson at your suggestion. 

He lost me when he attempted to use MSA data to support his conclusion. While I may not know anything about the finances of any organization. I do understand audience measurement. If anyone is using MSA, CSA or DMA data to bang their head against that wall... they are using faulty data so therefore the conclusion is faulty. . 

Now back to things that I don't understand which are finances that I don't have access to. 

If each team pools 48% of revenue and splits the total equally amongst the 30 teams. Shouldn't that 48% of revenue be a fairly large part of the equation.

I don't see any place where jharaldson mentions the 48%. Shouldn't that 48% of revenue that the Twins contribute to the revenue sharing pool go into that section where he tries to determine the Twins revenue by comparison with the Atlanta Braves using faulty Metropolitan Statistical Area methodology to come to his conclusion. 

 

You seem a lot more qualified than the guy who wrote the article.  

[Jeff K]

18 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

From the OP:
It’s also worth noting that this all represents, in most cases, a best-case scenario. It assumes Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis continue to thrive; that Brooks Lee and Louis Varland can earn MLB spots despite likely starting in Triple A; and that Ober, Ryan, and Chris Paddack all stay healthy and productive enough to become fixtures in the rotation.

 

-------------------------------------------------

Um, if a) Varland, Ober, Ryan and Paddack are healthy and productive and join Lopez in the rotation; b) Wallner, Julien and Lewis thrive; c) they are joined by Lee (and Kirilloff/Larnach/Martin; and d) implied is that Correa, Buxton, Garver/Vazquez are successful, it's not like they have a huge need for other big expenditures.

I'm with @Cory Engelhardt. Let's hold off on the sky is falling articles. We have all of next offseason for those...    

I agree, 2024 has the potential to be a very good team.  Coming from the corporate world, "right sizing" sounds terrible; however, I choose to stay optimistic that the Twins will do what they should at the trade deadline; assuming they are doing well and have needs.  And yes, I had hoped for a one year "prove it" contract for Montgomery.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Unless they can sign and draft amateurs, and then develop them…year after year… on a par with the likes of Tampa Bay, it’s not going to be pretty.

This is where it’s actually bad to be in the ALC…because the FO can pretend to compete year after year, without ACTUALLY competing. And the general fan base swallows that bait…while chalking up relatively frequent, but short, playoff runs to “bad luck”.

People said this over and over so I collect the data for all of the Rays teams with over 90 wins.  I simply pulled up Fangraphs for that year sorted by WAR and took the top producing (impact) players and determined how they were acquired.  The 2019 Rays got 45.8% of the WAR produced by this definition from players acquired as prospects,  I define prospects to include players that are unproven at the ML level.   Only 18.5% of the WAR was produced by players they drafted.  I have 2021-2023 as well and the percentage was equal in 2021 and the % was higher in 2022-23.

The Rays trade excess like Polanco / Willy Adames.  They also do a good job in getting the most out of players but the Rays success is not because they draft better.  The greater influence is their willingness to trade current productive assets/excess for future value and they are great at acquiring players that are close to being ready. 

 

[wabene]

Edited; not particularly well said. I do appreciate the positive responses. 

[Whitey333]

Twins need to improve in the pr department.  Dave st. Peter is a joke!  He has been lying to twins fans for years especially about the TV situation.  I've said all along ( I know that doesn't mean I'm totally right) that signing Correa to that huge contract was a huge mistake.  Why pay him 35 million or so per year i you have no plans or desire to keep good players around him.  And the Buxton money has been a huge joke and waste of money.  If your desire is to cut payroll and pay cheap it sure was poor planning to have 2 guys taking up 40% of team payroll.  And that's with one of those only playing one full season out of 8.  At least Correa has some good full years of productivity to show for it.  But simply too expensive for an overly frugal franchise.  We shouldn't be surprised by Joe Pohlads comments.  It's the same philosophy they've had since they purchased the team.  I am grateful for the decades of stable ownership.  It's taken me decades to try and realize that nothing changes with this franchise.  I need to temper my frustrations much like the Pohlads temper their payroll and apparent disdain for the fans.