What Does a “Right-Sized” Payroll Do to the Twins’ Future?

[KirbyDome89]

42 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Sure would like to see your hissy fit backed up with supporting data.  In other words, show us the Twins spend less per dollar of revenue than other teams.  My bet is that you have never bothered to validate your opinion because if you had you would know this isn't true.  Never ever has anyone here ever backed up this kind of irrational dribble with actual fact.  

It's also curious that we seem to readily accept that the vast majority of players are fighting for every dime.  We accept that it's a business for them but we don't accept a business owner treating it like a business.  Why the totally different response to players?

Can you show us that they do? Are you somehow privy to hard revenue numbers across all of baseball? 

Astonishing that anybody has to actually ask that question. 

[TwinsDr2021]

"But beyond that, we’re also just trying to right-size our business.”

Fair enough Jim, as a family we have decided to right size our budget and not spend our entertainment money at target field. I will always be a twins fan and won't leave for another team but like the two years prior my son and I will be attending other teams minor league games. (My son is becoming a Blue Jays fan because of that and the fact that we haven't seen the Twins on TV in years) Last year we went to two of the last three Twins spring training games because going into the year it felt like the team cared about its fans by putting together one of the better team in my lifetime (minus the Gallo situation), not that this years team isn't looking good, it is, it has a ton of potential but with comments like that it makes it hard to spend my money on the team.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It's ironic that we repeatedly hear followers here say they don't want to spend money on the team.  Yet, they expect more spending.  Many have said they would not pay $20 month while asking for a free agent that gets paid $5M/month.

Bit of a chicken and egg situation here. Who's supposed to spend first? The team or the fans?

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They were 22nd in revenue in 2022.  The number for 2023 should be out in the next 6 weeks.  They should be up a couple places and I suspect they should be around 18th on average.

The number according to information generated by the Twins.  

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

This reminds me of a poll I brought up here a few months back and didn't get much feedback on.  My question was something like ' Do the owners care if they ever win another championship, or only if they make money".  

Yes, its a business.  We know that.  However, it makes it harder to be a fan when they so obviously demonstrate this is literally just another business to them - the fans don't matter.  If we win, we win, if we don't....well, at least we got richer.  

Got the 20 year monkey off our back, so back to my original question - Do they (the owners) care if we ever win another championship, or do they only care if they make money every year?

 

Money every year then championship.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

Do they (the owners) care if we ever win another championship, or do they only care if they make money every year?

For years, I thought the lack of a killer instinct on this team was attributable to the coaching staff and FO. Now I think it goes much higher. No one with a desire to see a championship-winning team would take this approach to payroll after last season. I guess winning the Wild Card series was good enough in their eyes. 

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Bit of a chicken and egg situation here. Who's supposed to spend first? The team or the fans?

Couldn't one say the Fans did pay by paying 75% of the cost of Target field?

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Likely it does nothing good. You can be competitive without spending in the top half, but you aren't winning it all. 

I think you might have that backwards, Mike.

You can have the stars align and win big for a season or two without spending in the top 10-ish. Even win a WS.

But "sustained success" takes a big payroll. 

By sustained success, I mean years-decades-of good teams, almost every year.

The Yankees haven't had a losing season record since 1992. Dodgers twice since 2000. Houston, Atlanta. 

To be good, long term, you need to pay for players.

It's next to impossible to consistently develop enough young talent.

Tampa possibly being the exception that proves the rule.

 

[LastOnePicked]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Bit of a chicken and egg situation here. Who's supposed to spend first? The team or the fans?

I think the idea is to *create new fans* through a championship run. The base of fans is strong here, but it's not nearly enough to grow revenue. Just another reason why winning when you can is important.

Or, as I've said many times, just go into total rebuild mode. These guys should really pick a lane, because it's hard to see how this nibbling .500 approach brings home a pennant.

[Major League Ready]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Can you show us that they do? Are you somehow privy to hard revenue numbers across all of baseball? 

Astonishing that anybody has to actually ask that question. 

I don't take hard positions without facts.  Quite often when people make these proclamations here I wonder if the facts support the boldness of their conclusion/position so I gather the information needed to reach an informed conclusion.  It has become harder and harder to find sources.  Forbes provided this information ever year but the older information can no longer be accessed if you want to look back and compile the information for a number of years.  I had a Statista account once upon a time.  They produce revenue summaries every year and payroll can be found via several sources.  Here is 2023.  The Twins ranked 11th in Payroll as a percentage of revenue.  I also have net profit for 2022 via Forbes.  The Twins ranked 25th in net profit for 2022 according to Forbes..

[Major League Ready]

17 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

The number according to information generated by the Twins.  

That information came from Statista and Forbes.  The Teams are not handing out that information.   

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, LastOnePicked said:

I think the idea is to *create new fans* through a championship run. The base of fans is strong here, but it's not nearly enough to grow revenue. Just another reason why winning when you can is important.

Or, as I've said many times, just go into total rebuild mode. These guys should really pick a lane, because it's hard to see how this nibbling .500 approach brings home a pennant.

I'm 100% on the "create new fans" bandwagon. When you haven't won a playoff game in 2 decades you've given an entire generation 0 playoff wins. That's hard to build upon your core fan base. On top of that you have a bunch of really bad teams that finish towards, or at, the bottom of a mostly bad division so aren't even reaching the playoffs. Then you mix in the recent years of lack of streaming options during the cord cutting boom, which is not their fault necessarily as they were already locked into a TV deal, and it makes it worse. But doubling down on that by knowing you're hurting your ability to reach more people by chasing a 1 year payment for a worse deal than the one you've been complaining about for years because you want as much revenue as you can get for 1 year is 100% their fault. And then they top it all off with St Peter and Pohlad being absolutely horrendous with messaging and you've just put a cherry on top of your "how to alienate fans and shoot yourself in the foot" sundae.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't take hard positions without facts.  Quite often when people make these proclamations here I wonder if the facts support the boldness of their conclusion/position so I gather the information needed to reach an informed conclusion.  It has become harder and harder to find sources.  Forbes provided this information ever year but the older information can no longer be accessed if you want to look back and compile the information for a number of years.  I had a Statista account once upon a time.  They produce revenue summaries every year and payroll can be found via several sources.  Here is 2023.  The Twins ranked 11th in Payroll as a percentage of revenue.  I also have net profit for 2022 via Forbes.  The Twins ranked 25th in net profit for 2022 according to Forbes..

 

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That information came from Statista and Forbes.  The Teams are not handing out that information.   

So not facts. Guesses. But guesses that you like so you claim are facts.

Edit to add: The Braves and Toronto being the exception as those are actually team provided data sets.

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think you might have that backwards, Mike.

You can have the stars align and win big for a season or two without spending in the top 10-ish. Even win a WS.

But "sustained success" takes a big payroll. 

By sustained success, I mean years-decades-of good teams, almost every year.

The Yankees haven't had a losing season record since 1992. Dodgers twice since 2000. Houston, Atlanta. 

To be good, long term, you need to pay for players.

It's next to impossible to consistently develop enough young talent.

Tampa possibly being the exception that proves the rule.

 

You are correct, sir!  This is a summary since 2000 with number of 90 win seasons, overall win percentage and WS wins.  This is sorted by 90 win seasons.  The 2nd list is by win percentage.  

By win percentage

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

This reminds me of a poll I brought up here a few months back and didn't get much feedback on.  My question was something like ' Do the owners care if they ever win another championship, or only if they make money".  

Yes, its a business.  We know that.  However, it makes it harder to be a fan when they so obviously demonstrate this is literally just another business to them - the fans don't matter.  If we win, we win, if we don't....well, at least we got richer.  

Got the 20 year monkey off our back, so back to my original question - Do they (the owners) care if we ever win another championship, or do they only care if they make money every year?

 

They have shown that the bottom line of making a profit is at the top of their list of priorities. Winning a WS is secondary. I honestly could care less how much money they do or don't make. But their talk and actions show what they are most serious about. That is what has dictated how serious I have been about my fandom.

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

So not facts. Guesses. But guesses that you like so you claim are facts.

Edit to add: The Braves and Toronto being the exception as those are actually team provided data sets.

We know exactly what the payroll is so that's fact.  I thought it went without saying that these are not audited financial statements.  It's an unbiased source providing an estimate.  The TV revenue is widely reported and I think the attendance records are pretty accurate.  The only real assumption is the average ticket price which is also not hard to find.  We are talking about a small percentage of the information that is not rather easily estimated.

By firm did many far more complicated estimates with under a +/- 4% variance when audited against actual results.   You are now just being petty because you don't want to acknowledge the information.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

I thought it went without saying that these are not audited.  It's an unbiased source providing an estimate.  By firm did many far more complicated estimates with under a +/- 5%.   You are now just being petty because you don't want to acknowledge the information.

No, you said "I don't take hard positions without facts." But you take "hard positions" on the Twins spending constantly on here. Those are not facts you presented. If you're going to talk down to/about people who make claims without facts while claiming to have facts it's not petty to point out that you're not actually providing facts. Don't claim to have facts and then say "it went without saying that these are not audited." They aren't facts.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We know exactly what the payroll is so that's fact.  I thought it went without saying that these are not audited financial statements.  It's an unbiased source providing an estimate.  The TV revenue is widely reported and I think the attendance records are pretty accurate.  The only real assumption is the average ticket price which is also not hard to find.  We are talking about a small percentage of the information that is not rather easily estimated.

By firm did many far more complicated estimates with under a +/- 4% variance when audited against actual results.   You are now just being petty because you don't want to acknowledge the information.

The TV revenue is not widely reported. We didn't know how much they were making on their TV deal until the bankruptcy hearing after their entire contract ended. They've now hidden their new 1 year deal. What's "pretty accurate" for attendance numbers? Where do those numbers come from? Now it's 4% variance instead of 5? 5% variance on the Twins revenue you showed is an extra 13.5 million. An extra 13.5 million jumps them from 25th in profit to 19th. An extra 5% on Boston's number is +/-26 million. That could move them from 4th in profit to easily #1 or down to #11. 

These aren't facts. They're guesses.

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You are correct, sir!  This is a summary since 2000 with number of 90 win seasons, overall win percentage and WS wins.  This is sorted by 90 win seasons.  The 2nd list is by win percentage.  

This is the only one I care about.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

So, I should just enjoy that wealthy people are horrible hypocrites and reward them for that behavior?

I wouldn’t if I were you.  I’d cheer for the Brewers or Cardinals like you said. You have two good options; I’m sure their owners are better people than the Twins’.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

The Pohlads deserve to see the stadium completely empty this season.  Fans should vote with their pocket books and force these guys out by making this year an absolute financial disaster.  Anyone who attends a game should boo and hiss mercilessly.

I’m out on this crap.  Not spending a dime on this cut-rate franchise.  I’ll take every opportunity to convince any person I come across to do the same.  So tired of hearing this corporate money-grubbing drivel out of their mouths every offseason.

This franchise is a joke.  The 2024 season is already over, and everyone here know it.  But, everyone is so desperate for entertainment and addicted to the crap product they delude themselves into thinking they’re doing what’s best for the franchise.

 

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Bit of a chicken and egg situation here. Who's supposed to spend first? The team or the fans?

I was going to say it's one of those self fulfilling prophecy things but chicken and egg works too. Unfortunately it really doesn't matter if the water is swirling the wrong direction.

I haven't listened to the interview yet but am not surprised at anything I'm reading here. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

Interesting though, how when the local barber is struggling in the community very often word spreads and lots of people get extra haircuts and get their local businesses through hard times.

Maybe that's what Twins fans should do. Pack the stadium. Instead of being torn up about what they didn't do, celebrate what they did do.

I'm actually not totally unsympathetic to @Beast statements, I just disagree with the timing. That there is a winning team on the field with all this going is actually impressive, surely lucky as well but still impressive. If they put an Oakland As product out, I'll be out as well.

I kinda understand what DSP is trying to say about fans not showing but if the only hire they make this year is a PR person it might be the best money they could spend.

[Major League Ready]

35 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

This is the only one I care about.

So you would rather follow KC who has been horrid for 23 of the last 25 years?   If that's you thing, great.  I watch 120 games/year and I want to see a good product as often as possible.  Anyone could shove all their chips in (gut the farm system) and create the best opportunity to win a WS theoretically or would we have a better shot at winning a WS by getting their often and getting hot at the right time.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't take hard positions without facts.  Quite often when people make these proclamations here I wonder if the facts support the boldness of their conclusion/position so I gather the information needed to reach an informed conclusion.  It has become harder and harder to find sources.  Forbes provided this information ever year but the older information can no longer be accessed if you want to look back and compile the information for a number of years.  I had a Statista account once upon a time.  They produce revenue summaries every year and payroll can be found via several sources.  Here is 2023.  The Twins ranked 11th in Payroll as a percentage of revenue.  I also have net profit for 2022 via Forbes.  The Twins ranked 25th in net profit for 2022 according to Forbes..

Ok everbody, let’s look at these numbers.  Let’s assume they are, or nearly are, correct. If so, a couple observations:

1. Only three teams lost money on an operating basis.  Three.  That’s it.  So where are all the owners willing to lose money on an annual basis?

2. The three that did lose money all had less revenue than the Twins.  Given the amount of relatively fixed costs needed to operate a franchise, it’s likely that they just didn’t have the revenues to cover the nugget.  Having said that, possibly the Blue Jays were willing to lose money.

3. The Twins operating margin is a mere 5%.  That’s pathetic for any reasonably run mature business. Are you really going to begrudge them that sort of margin?

4. But wait, how about some other small mid-market teams? The Rays, Reds, Tigers, White Sox, Brewers, Padres, A’s, Guardians and Rockies all made more profit than the Twins on close to or less revenue.  Boy, their fans must be really livid - those gouger owners.

TDers - it’s just a fallacy that some/most owners are willing to lose money on an annual operating basis year after year to win a championship for themselves or their communities. 

 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

....Got the 20 year monkey off our back, so back to my original question - Do they (the owners) care if we ever win another championship, or do they only care if they make money every year?

 

Yes.*

*Mainly meaning that I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. 

[akmanak]

This really is nothing new. The Pohlad's duped the fans into getting them a new stadium , they didn't hold true to continuing to raise payroll because of the new stadium, they have never really spent from season to season to remain competitive and they have clearly shown they don't care about rings and care more about how much profit they can squeeze out of the team.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

An article like this is a sure way to get some reactions!  Wow!

I agree with whoever it was that said the Twins are in need of a serious PR person who has some serious ability to talk truth to power.  The positions that they are taking about wanting to "right size" things -- meaning make the budget fit the revenue, or being out on expensive last minute free agents -- really? we're surprised on this one?, are not ridiculous or unreasonable, but they are being handled/said/released in a very tone deaf manner.  It would have been MUCH better had they just kept their mouths shut and let people guess.  Being transparent isn't always the best idea, even if everyone tells us that it is.

Lots of things are being said about negotiating a better TV deal or being able to afford contracts.  Since the people who had the last TV deal went bankrupt, I'm sure people weren't lining up to write a bigger check this year.  You can't will that into happening.   Also, being able to afford something doesn't make it a good idea.  I could probably afford a fancy car, but the prudent thing to do is to keep driving my Honda.  Otherwise, I would need to make some other cuts to balance the books in my budget. 

Finally, somehow people have started to live in a black and white world.  Things are great or terrible, with no in between.  More money does make it really easy to put a playoff team on the field -- take for example the Angels or the Mets -- oops!  It can also be done with a more modest budget with good talent acquisition and management.  The sky is not falling, nor are we entering the land of milk and honey.  Sometimes we all need to take a deep breath. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't take hard positions without facts.  Quite often when people make these proclamations here I wonder if the facts support the boldness of their conclusion/position so I gather the information needed to reach an informed conclusion.  It has become harder and harder to find sources.  Forbes provided this information ever year but the older information can no longer be accessed if you want to look back and compile the information for a number of years.  I had a Statista account once upon a time.  They produce revenue summaries every year and payroll can be found via several sources.  Here is 2023.  The Twins ranked 11th in Payroll as a percentage of revenue.  I also have net profit for 2022 via Forbes.  The Twins ranked 25th in net profit for 2022 according to Forbes..

Forbes isn’t “Fact”. Forbes is a publication that tries to turn wealthy people into celebrities by sharing information those wealthy people want to share. It’s not GAAP audited financial filings for the SEC on publicly traded companies, it’s estimates

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Forbes isn’t “Fact”. Forbes is a publication that tries to turn wealthy people into celebrities by sharing information those wealthy people want to share. It’s not GAAP audited financial filings for the SEC on publicly traded companies, it’s estimates

You are absolutely right.  I should have said the most factual data I could find.  Better?  I was thinking in broader terms with all of the other data I have complied that is factual.  For example, the roster construction of every playoff team that was in the bottom half of revenue or the WAR produced by every free agent SP to get a 5+ year contract since the turn of the century or the combined win records of every team since 2000.  No doubt the revenue sources are estimates.  I still think that's a lot better than going off the way many people do here without attempting to gather unbiased information.

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I'm sure they would like to win another championship, but only if it doesn't cost them any money.

It’s going to take blind luck and existing pieces having career years like 1987 and 1991 to win a World Series now and in the future. 

[Vanimal46]

Joe Pohlad at least is being honest. DeRusha conducted the interview in a way where he let his guard down. Joe has been coached on how to answer these questions vaguely to still instill hope like Jim did. He was even starting to corporate speak his way around the spending on current free agents question, but then he pivoted and said no. 

This is status quo for the Pohlads. Even in the seasons where the stars aligned, they didn’t make the commitment to go for a World Series title.