Minnesota Twins 2024 X-Factors: Could Brooks Lee's Impact Come Right Away?

[Jamie Cameron]

Brooks Lee is knocking on the door of the majors. What does a version of the 2024 season in which he makes a difference for a contending Twins team look like? Where is his defensive home? What's needed to round out his offensive profile? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Brooks Lee has faithfully traversed the path the Twins laid out before him when he was selected eighth overall in the 2022 MLB Draft. His ready-made professional skill set (with few unique strengths and few real weaknesses) has guided him to the doorstep of the majors in two short professional seasons.

To assess what an impactful 2024 Brooks Lee looks like, digging into his minor-league numbers, his scouting report, and skill set is a great jumping-off point. Lee is a switch-hitting shortstop whose swing looks more polished from the left side of the plate (more on this later). In a roughly 40-game sample at Triple A in 2023, Lee demonstrated many of the strengths that made him such a highly regarded prospect in his class. He managed a 76.3% contact rate (3.1% above league average), a 90.6 mph average exit velocity (3.2 mph above league average), and hit the ball at or above 95 mph 48% of the time (league average 36.2%). That’s a promising platform of bat-to-ball skills and quality of contact.

There are some critical and inextricably linked questions that need answering when prognosticating Lee’s 2024 impact. Where is his playing time going to come from? What position will he play defensively? The answers will govern the magnitude of the value he can produce. Let’s start with playing time.

There are two variables that will impact Lee’s 2024 playing time; injuries on the MLB roster, and his performance at Triple A. Lee had an uneven start to his time at St. Paul, but he had enough playing time at the level to see better stuff, get a clear understanding of adjustments that need to be made before working on them in the offseason. In a recent radio interview for MLB Network Radio, Thad Levine stated that ‘when he (Lee) tells us he’s ready to go, we’re going to get him up to the big leagues’. One possibility is Lee is crushing it at one end of the Green Line and forcing his way to the other.

Another, more likely possibility is that Lee is given his first shot at the big leagues because of an injury. The 2023 Twins were infinitely more lucky than the 2022 team health-wise. Lee could follow the path of Edouard Julien and get short stints throughout the first half of the season, allowing for an adjustment period until his performance dictates he is in Minneapolis to stay.

Defensively, it’s unlikely Lee plays shortstop for the Twins, barring an even more serious injury to Carlos Correa than the one that spoiled his 2023 campaign. Even then, Royce Lewis may slide over from third base. 'Yeah all over...he's gonna play short and second or third', relayed Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to reporters of Lee's defensive position this spring. While Lee has good instincts and defensive actions at the position, second or third base seem the likely fit. With the Twins seemingly keen on giving Lee a run at some defensive consistency, playing the majority of his defensive innings at second base (either via a Julien injury or a transition to first base for the Quebecois) seems the most likely. The good news is that Lee has the defensive profile (actions, quickness, arm) to be an upgrade at the position--at worst, above average. So what does Lee need to accomplish offensively to be deemed ‘ready’? 

Lee struck out at a 16.7% clip in Triple A (level average 22.4%), which is great, but he walked just 8.9% of the time (level average 12%; the automated strike zone was tiny). These rates help us arrive at our first area that needs polishing for Lee: his chase rate. Lee expanded the zone too much, chasing at a 34.7% rate (level average 27.1%). Despite Lee’s strong exit velocity and hard-hit numbers, he underperformed his expected rate stats at Triple A (.428 SLG, .468 xSLG). Lee will have to limit the amount he chases, particularly north and south in the strike zone, to prevent better pitchers from getting him into leveraged counts too easily.

It’s also worth digging into Lee’s splits batting left versus right handed, with the caveat that his sample as a right-handed hitter at Triple A is too small to draw meaningful conclusions.

	EV	Hit95+%	Contact%	Chase%	xAVG	xSLG
as LHH	91.3 mph	52.9%	78.2%	33.8%	.310	.531
as RHH	87.4 mph	26.1%	68.7%	38.2%	.178	.203

Whew! Parsing Lee’s split down further to how he performed versus fastballs against left-handed and right-handed pitching is similarly illuminating. Lee received a steady diet of fastballs outside the strike zone as a right-handed hitter, which he went after, and often missed. He chased fastballs from right-handed pitchers at a 55% clip. This is where a high chase rate and good bat-to-ball skills coinciding can be dangerous. Lee chased and made poor quality contact against left-handers all too often in 2023. Improved selectivity as a right-handed hitter is an important developmental next step in 2024.

The 95th-percentile impact for Lee in 2024 is a regular MLB starter who competes for AL Rookie of the Year. That outcome would reverberate beyond the Twins 2024 season, as he’d net the Twins a PPI draft pick right after the first round in 2025. While that outcome may seem unlikely, you could say the same about a thousand other player development stories. I think it’s fair to say that his progress through the minors has been slightly overlooked due to his perception as a ‘high-floor’ prospect, while his potential impact is overlooked due to a perceived lack of ceiling. Don’t overlook the value Brooks Lee can bring to the 2024 Twins; it’s significant.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I mean, Lee playing 2b while backing up SS and 3B is a GREAT plan. Julien moving to full time DH, with some 1B and 2B is also a GREAT plan.

[Karbo]

With Kepler probably moving on next year, I could see moving AK to LF, Julian to 1st, and Lee to 2nd. Of course that also depends on if AK can stay healthy and perform to his expected level. Then there's Jenkins coming along so Julian, Lee, and AK better perform.

[Byrdman]

Lee needs time at AAA.  I don't expect him to be with the team until the 2nd half of the year.  Unless some injuries happen he will stay at AAA. There is honestly not a roster spot for him currently.  Unless we move Farmer or Castro. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

If he proves he's ready to hit in the majors early this season, I'm all in with getting him up and rounding out the infield. But, given his experience and the areas you've noted here I think he needs a bit more seasoning in AAA before he's ready to make that leap.

Julien proved by the end of last season that he is able to play at least an average 2B and potential to be a good defender, but there's no argument as to who I'd rather have playing there long term in an infield of Lewis-Correa-Lee-Julien.

And he's always been a better hitter from the left-handed batter's box, but if he can figure out how to be a decent OBP guy vs. lefties it would really help this left-handed hitter heavy team out. 

[TopGunn#22]

Lee "may" need more time at AAA.  One should never put too much stock in spring training stats, but it's certainly possible that Lee turns in a very solid spring.  This may speed up his timeline to the big league club sooner than the front office is looking at. 

If Lee impresses and either comes north with the Twins right out of camp or after 3-weeks in St. Paul what player on the big league roster does that most acutely affect?  Kyle Farmer.  Lee would do everything Farmer would do.  Back up 2B, 3B and SS and at a fraction of the cost.  Julien could still play some 1B, but with Santana on board and if Kirilloff is healthy and hitting, Julien will still play a decent number of games at 2B.  Kirilloff could play more than we think in LF/RF.  I could see Rocco rotating Lee throughout the infield with Julien, Santana and Kirilloff rotating between 1B and DH.  The other guy that is affected if Lee breaks came with the Twins or joins early in the season is Larnach, because that could push Kirilloff to more games in the OF.

So if Lee is on the big club, Farmer is more likely to be traded to a team that has a SS emergency, much like the Dodgers did with Gavin Lux last year.  Larnach would be tethered to St. Paul and it would take a rash of injuries or very sub par play from Lee for Larnach to have much of a role with the Twins.  

But make no mistake about it.  Lee is going to be a Twin THIS season.  How soon that is will largely be up to Brooks Lee and to some degree how healthy certain players are or are NOT for the Twins.  

[TopGunn#22]

Lee "may" need more time at AAA.  One should never put too much stock in spring training stats, but it's certainly possible that Lee turns in a very solid spring.  This may speed up his timeline to the big league club sooner than the front office is looking at. 

If Lee impresses and either comes north with the Twins right out of camp or after 3-weeks in St. Paul what player on the big league roster does that most acutely affect?  Kyle Farmer.  Lee would do everything Farmer would do.  Back up 2B, 3B and SS and at a fraction of the cost.  Julien could still play some 1B, but with Santana on board and if Kirilloff is healthy and hitting, Julien will still play a decent number of games at 2B.  Kirilloff could play more than we think in LF/RF.  I could see Rocco rotating Lee throughout the infield with Julien, Santana and Kirilloff rotating between 1B and DH.  The other guy that is affected if Lee breaks came with the Twins or joins early in the season is Larnach, because that could push Kirilloff to more games in the OF.

So if Lee is on the big club, Farmer is more likely to be traded to a team that has a SS emergency, much like the Dodgers did with Gavin Lux last year.  Larnach would be tethered to St. Paul and it would take a rash of injuries or very sub par play from Lee for Larnach to have much of a role with the Twins.  

But make no mistake about it.  Lee is going to be a Twin THIS season.  How soon that is will largely be up to Brooks Lee and to some degree how healthy certain players are or are NOT for the Twins.  

[TopGunn#22]

Just saw that the Rays added Amed Rosario to their roster.  Tampa Bay, with Wander Franco's legal issues and Caminero being so young, would have been a prime spot to trade Farmer.  That possibility is over now, but there will be other opportunities that will present themselves.   

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Half the flipping team is an x-factor this year:

Correa, Buxton, Vasquez - will they bounce back?
Julien, Lewis, Wallner - will they hit sophomore slumps or continue to improve?
Kiriloff - can he stay healthy enough to secure a permanent role?
Santana - can he fight off father time another year?
Kepler - which version are we going to get this year?
Paddack - Is he back to form following surgery?
<insert AAA player here> - can they contribute at the major league level?

The main problem is that the Twins need 90% of these things to go right to be successful this year...

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Lee "may" need more time at AAA.  One should never put too much stock in spring training stats, but it's certainly possible that Lee turns in a very solid spring.  This may speed up his timeline to the big league club sooner than the front office is looking at. 

If Lee impresses and either comes north with the Twins right out of camp or after 3-weeks in St. Paul what player on the big league roster does that most acutely affect?  Kyle Farmer.  Lee would do everything Farmer would do.  Back up 2B, 3B and SS and at a fraction of the cost.  Julien could still play some 1B, but with Santana on board and if Kirilloff is healthy and hitting, Julien will still play a decent number of games at 2B.  Kirilloff could play more than we think in LF/RF.  I could see Rocco rotating Lee throughout the infield with Julien, Santana and Kirilloff rotating between 1B and DH.  The other guy that is affected if Lee breaks came with the Twins or joins early in the season is Larnach, because that could push Kirilloff to more games in the OF.

So if Lee is on the big club, Farmer is more likely to be traded to a team that has a SS emergency, much like the Dodgers did with Gavin Lux last year.  Larnach would be tethered to St. Paul and it would take a rash of injuries or very sub par play from Lee for Larnach to have much of a role with the Twins.  

But make no mistake about it.  Lee is going to be a Twin THIS season.  How soon that is will largely be up to Brooks Lee and to some degree how healthy certain players are or are NOT for the Twins.  

Great points, the only thing Farmer does that Lee doesn't/wouldn't is hit lefties. But hopefully with Lewis, Jeffers and Correa/Buxton healthy they won't need as much help hitting lefties this year. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Half the flipping team is an x-factor this year:

Correa, Buxton, Vasquez - will they bounce back?
Julien, Lewis, Wallner - will they hit sophomore slumps or continue to improve?
Kiriloff - can he stay healthy enough to secure a permanent role?
Santana - can he fight off father time another year?
Kepler - which version are we going to get this year?
Paddack - Is he back to form following surgery?
<insert AAA player here> - can they contribute at the major league level?

The main problem is that the Twins need 90% of these things to go right to be successful this year...

I think you could literally do this for every single team in baseball though, right? Who is a team you can't do this with?

And I'd argue the Twins need only really 60% of what you listed to absolutely go right. They have a LOT of depth. 

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Jamie, with the tiny automatic strike zone in AAA, Lee should instinctively know that it's beneficial to be more patient but isn't. E Rod takes advantage of the small automatic strike zone, maybe he's too patient. So chasing is definitely a problem that needs to be addressed & for him to find that balance, before coming up to MLB.

Although Lee has a home at 2B there's no hurry to bring Lee up, I'd like for him to be confident that he can hit MLB 1st.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I’m really having difficulty understanding what the hurry is to get Brooks Lee to the majors.  He’s an obviously talented fellow who has had some decent success in the minors but little time at AAA to fine tune those skills.  Give the guy some time to develop so that he can stay in the majors and not bounce back and forth to St. Paul because we rushed him and he’s overmatched.  

Add to this that there currently is no real “need” for him to come up and play.  All of his positions are manned by players who are likely better than he is at the moment, and possibly forever.  Remember, Julian, Correa, and Lewis are pretty darn good players.  I think having him come up to ride the bench and replace Farmer is a very bad idea.  He needs to have daily playing time in order to develop properly.  IF there is an injury that requires an everyday player for 4-6 weeks, by all means give him a chance, but as the Twins are currently configured the best place for him is in St. Paul.  

[Fatbat]

41 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I’m really having difficulty understanding what the hurry is to get Brooks Lee to the majors.  He’s an obviously talented fellow who has had some decent success in the minors but little time at AAA to fine tune those skills.  Give the guy some time to develop so that he can stay in the majors and not bounce back and forth to St. Paul because we rushed him and he’s overmatched.  

Add to this that there currently is no real “need” for him to come up and play.  All of his positions are manned by players who are likely better than he is at the moment, and possibly forever.  Remember, Julian, Correa, and Lewis are pretty darn good players.  I think having him come up to ride the bench and replace Farmer is a very bad idea.  He needs to have daily playing time in order to develop properly.  IF there is an injury that requires an everyday player for 4-6 weeks, by all means give him a chance, but as the Twins are currently configured the best place for him is in St. Paul.  

It’s not actually a hurry considering he played college ball. He isn’t 20 years old. 
The value in Lee playing MLB is moving on from Farmer and Investing that $6M+ toward another ace pitcher. As long as Lee is ready and playing In MLB for the full ‘24 season, we have a shot at a ROY award and the draft pick at 31/32 in 2025. That pick could have massive future value to the team. 
The downside risk is getting rid of another seasoned professional MLB player and working thru the probable Lee rookie growing pains. 
personally, I would keep Farmer but I also understand that if Lee could step in immediately, that $6M could help sign better SP. 

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

E Rod takes advantage of the small automatic strike zone, maybe he's too patient.

They don't have an automated strike zone at AA.

[Heiny]

When I look at Lee, I see a young man with broad shoulders and thick chest and very strong legs.  I believe he will develop into an very good hitter with 30 home run capability.  With SS athleticism he should be the first call-up if any starting infielder goes on IL.  When he gets the call it will be up to him to show he belongs.  He can be an all-star at either 2b or 3b.  With the versatility of Kirilloff being able to play 1b or corner outfield and Lewis to play 3b, 2b, ss, or LF I am very confident in our defensive depth and offensive upside.  This should be a very interesting team and fun to watch.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

It’s not actually a hurry considering he played college ball. He isn’t 20 years old. 
The value in Lee playing MLB is moving on from Farmer and Investing that $6M+ toward another ace pitcher. As long as Lee is ready and playing In MLB for the full ‘24 season, we have a shot at a ROY award and the draft pick at 31/32 in 2025. That pick could have massive future value to the team. 
The downside risk is getting rid of another seasoned professional MLB player and working thru the probable Lee rookie growing pains. 
personally, I would keep Farmer but I also understand that if Lee could step in immediately, that $6M could help sign better SP. 

I'm not suggesting that they wait until 2026 or anything.  I'm just not of the belief that he is quite ready to hit the ground running in MLB games.  By July he likely will be ready.  He's only 23, which isn't "old" at all.  Trying to get the draft pick for Brooks Lee winning the ROY award is a bit like playing the lottery.  It's possible, but pretty unlikely.  Winning that award usually takes "flashy" more than "solid" and my bet is that Lee falls into the second category. 

If $6M were going to make a difference in signing a SP, the team would have probably already done that.  A pitcher who will actually move the needle is more likely to cost $25M+. 

 

[Fatbat]

10 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm not suggesting that they wait until 2026 or anything.  I'm just not of the belief that he is quite ready to hit the ground running in MLB games.  By July he likely will be ready.  He's only 23, which isn't "old" at all.  Trying to get the draft pick for Brooks Lee winning the ROY award is a bit like playing the lottery.  It's possible, but pretty unlikely.  Winning that award usually takes "flashy" more than "solid" and my bet is that Lee falls into the second category. 

If $6M were going to make a difference in signing a SP, the team would have probably already done that.  A pitcher who will actually move the needle is more likely to cost $25M+. 

 

But if you take the 26M and make it 10M payroll net increase by sending Farmer and another 10M vet down the road, is the team better off or will we lack depth in the field?  Obviously the team is opting for depth in the field vs. depth in the rotation. 

[Fatbat]

Lee is likely to be a new franchise cornerstone much like Polanco was a decade ago. As a fan, I would love to see him break camp with the Twins and be the ROY winner in ‘24.  That’s just not probable. Will he be a Twin in ‘24, absolutely! He is going to be here a long time. Get used to cheering for him cause he is going to do awesome things for a long time. 

[tony&rodney]

In an interview, Lee said he has taken some ground balls at second base and played a few games at third base, but pretty much always has been a shortstop. I have watched Lee quite a few times (via milb.com), but it is much harder to learn anything about a fielder watching via tv than watching at bats. We can see quite a bit in every movement in at bats but are restricted in what we can see from a fielder. In fact, it is easier to see what an outfielder can do because of the angle of the camera than what goes on in the infield. 

Lee is projected by nearly every report i have seen to be slated for third base. The scouts suggest he can do a decent job at both shortstop and second base, but universally say his best position is going to be third base.

This year should allow the Twins to see Lee play a position other than shortstop and determine where he looks best defensively. Playing in St. Paul allows for some of us to watch his game live too. Last year, I thought Lee looked fine but certainly not special as a defender. But as I already suggested, it is nearly impossible to make really good judgments about an infielders play via tv. 

Fair to say that Brooks Lee is solid depth at AAA right now.

[Nashvilletwin]

Let’s not get greedy.  Assuming Lewis is our 3B going forward, the ultimate goal this season for Lee is to turn him into our starting 2B in 2025.  Two things will be very helpful to accomplishing that: 1) he’s not rushed and 2) he gets the right mentorship when called up.  So these points would support him starting in AAA to build his confidence, moving across the river when the inevitable injury occurs, and being exposed to/learning from Kyle Farmer.

2024 is the year Julien, Kiriloff and Severino audition for the starting 1B job in 2025.  With Santana on a one year deal, it’s more than likely that one of those three is our 1BOTF.
 

 

[baul0010]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Half the flipping team is an x-factor this year:

Correa, Buxton, Vasquez - will they bounce back?
Julien, Lewis, Wallner - will they hit sophomore slumps or continue to improve?
Kiriloff - can he stay healthy enough to secure a permanent role?
Santana - can he fight off father time another year?
Kepler - which version are we going to get this year?
Paddack - Is he back to form following surgery?
<insert AAA player here> - can they contribute at the major league level?

The main problem is that the Twins need 90% of these things to go right to be successful this year...

Take it back!  I'm a delicate flower, you're depressing me too much, and it's only the start of spring training :(  

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Just saw that the Rays added Amed Rosario to their roster.  Tampa Bay, with Wander Franco's legal issues and Caminero being so young, would have been a prime spot to trade Farmer.  That possibility is over now, but there will be other opportunities that will present themselves.   

Rosario is projected by ZIPS and Steamer to be the better hitter. His contract is 1.5 million. Over their careers both are much better against left handed pitching but Farmer is more extreme.

I don’t think the Rays were ever going to take Farmer’s contract. There were too many options on the market that would sign for less. No missed opportunity here.

I hope Brooks Lee and Austin Martin have the opportunity to win the job over Farmer.

[PatPfund]

Lee is a really promising young player, but if he gets serious early season time in MLB (let alone making the roster out of ST) then something has gone SERIOUSLY wrong with the Twins. Like losing one (or more) of Lewis, Julien, or Correa to serious injury. To date his AAA performance shows some promise but hardly demands promotion. And...

...He isn't even on the 40-man roster, meaning you have to DFA somebody else to make room. Granted there are plenty of fungible arms to play with, but the Saint closest to breaking with the Twins is probably Austin Martin (he IS on the 40-man, plays OF where the need is clearer, hits right-handed, brings elite speed, and takes a better at-bat than Lee as of now).

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Lee "may" need more time at AAA.  One should never put too much stock in spring training stats, but it's certainly possible that Lee turns in a very solid spring.  This may speed up his timeline to the big league club sooner than the front office is looking at. 

If Lee impresses and either comes north with the Twins right out of camp or after 3-weeks in St. Paul what player on the big league roster does that most acutely affect?  Kyle Farmer.  Lee would do everything Farmer would do.  Back up 2B, 3B and SS and at a fraction of the cost.  Julien could still play some 1B, but with Santana on board and if Kirilloff is healthy and hitting, Julien will still play a decent number of games at 2B.  Kirilloff could play more than we think in LF/RF.  I could see Rocco rotating Lee throughout the infield with Julien, Santana and Kirilloff rotating between 1B and DH.  The other guy that is affected if Lee breaks came with the Twins or joins early in the season is Larnach, because that could push Kirilloff to more games in the OF.

So if Lee is on the big club, Farmer is more likely to be traded to a team that has a SS emergency, much like the Dodgers did with Gavin Lux last year.  Larnach would be tethered to St. Paul and it would take a rash of injuries or very sub par play from Lee for Larnach to have much of a role with the Twins.  

But make no mistake about it.  Lee is going to be a Twin THIS season.  How soon that is will largely be up to Brooks Lee and to some degree how healthy certain players are or are NOT for the Twins.  

Agreed. Lee's likely initial spot is as Farmer's replacement.  To do that, he needs to improve as a RH hitter. AAA time is necessary.

[jorgenswest]

Spring training stats are meaningless. Spring training is meaningful. The staff working with him everyday needs to be able to assess if he is ready. They need to be able to assess his ability to hit left handed pitching. The sample against a lefty is too small to make any conclusions. Look at the variation likely due to sample in 2022 (.937 OPS) and 2023 (.603).

If he shows readiness they need to put him on the roster. They also need to be building in the flexibility for his arrival. I would suggest that they get Lewis some work in LF and CF. If not Lewis then the DH spot is open for Julien.

Martin needs to be given the opportunity to win a job also. 

[miracleb]

Regarding winning ROY in 2024 and getting the additional draft pick.  I love that idea!  BUT.....what is to keep the Twins from keeping him in AAA all of 2024 and he would have an even better chance of winning the ROY in 2025 ....to be able to get the draft pick!  It sounds like it has to be THIS year....but could someone fill me in on why that is the case.........TY!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think you could literally do this for every single team in baseball though, right? Who is a team you can't do this with?

And I'd argue the Twins need only really 60% of what you listed to absolutely go right. They have a LOT of depth. 

I am not trying to get too far away from the Brooks Lee discussion, but he falls under the AAA unknown.

To your point, You are not doing this with teams that should be competing for the title.  This team was close last year and upper brass has made the purposeful decision to make this team weaker this year than stronger.  

What "depth" are you referring to?  The Twins have either moved or let go all of the proven depth.  The "depth" this year is unproven minor leaguers.  If that doesn't scare you right now, I don't know what will.  Be optimistic, but be honest in your assessment.

You can argue the bullpen is strong, but considering the year-to-year volatility of relievers, I am a more bearish than most.

[Fatbat]

7 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not trying to get too far away from the Brooks Lee discussion, but he falls under the AAA unknown.

To your point, You are not doing this with teams that should be competing for the title.  This team was close last year and upper brass has made the purposeful decision to make this team weaker this year than stronger.  

What "depth" are you referring to?  The Twins have either moved or let go all of the proven depth.  The "depth" this year is unproven minor leaguers.  If that doesn't scare you right now, I don't know what will.  Be optimistic, but be honest in your assessment.

You can argue the bullpen is strong, but considering the year-to-year volatility of relievers, I am a more bearish than most.

The team is not weaker than ‘23 in any respect.  We literally have the 8th best odds at winning the WS this year. That wasnt even a discussion a year ago. 
4 key players are 100% healthy which wasnt the case a year ago. Our starting pitching has question marks but we are deeper than a year ago with more upside. The Twins weren't good until the rookies stepped up last year. Gray got rocked in October. Mahle and Gallo were bumbs even before they got injured. Polanco was a productive part time guy but he is replaced by Julien and Santana so thats a plus for ‘24. I would already rank ‘24 as a better starting team than 23’ending team. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I fall in between Fatbat and Fire Dan Gladden. At this point, you cannot say with any assurance that this year's team is weaker or stronger than last year. Why? Because the two keys are (1) the health of 3 critical players who had down or missed years in 23 due to injuries - Correa, Buxton, and Paddack, and (2) the continued high performance of 4 guys who were either rookies or came out of nowhere last year - Lewis, Julien, Wallner and yes, Kepler. The only givens are that the starting rotation is weaker and the bullpen is stronger probably by about an equal amount.  If the 3 guys listed coming back from injury perform closer to their historic expectations and everything else is the same - we are better this year. If those 3 are the same as last year, we are worse because there is less supporting depth at AAA - they're all in the bigs. If the 4 revelations from last year continue as they did or even improve, we are definitely better and could be a lot better.  If the revelations all hit sophomore slumps while Kepler returns to 2021-22, we are definitely worse and things could get ugly quickly. 

I think we'll be better because I think all 3 reclamations will perform substantially better than last year, and because the last 2 will be more available, and I think at least two of the 4 revelations will be as good or better and playing full seasons. My money is on Lewis and Julien.  I'm an optimist by nature so I'm happy with our chances. If 5 or 6 of those 7 crap out (or Lopez gets hurt) though, we will be worse and could be a lot worse.