Minnesota Twins 2024 X-Factors: Could Brooks Lee's Impact Come Right Away?

[tony&rodney]

Yesterday on a Fangraphs chat with Ben Clemens a reader asked which team might crater in the coming season similarly to the Cardinals last year. Clemens said, the Twins, injuries could tear the team down. 

So it is out there.

While I have suggested that Falvey mishandled the trade market (just my opinion - don't hate), I think the Twins should be a better team this year than last and win the AL Central again even if it is with fewer wins.

Not sure who will be the 26th person on the roster, but it seems slightly possible that Michael A. Taylor returns. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Jair Camargo, and DaShawn Kiersey Jr. should be able to provide adequate depth in case of injuries.

Might be worth a reminder that nobody really expected much from Wallner or Julien going into last year and Lewis was a question mark as well. A big question this year remains Alex Kirilloff. No doubt that injuries and regression could cause some angst this season, but I like the team. As always, the games need to be played for us to know.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Half the flipping team is an x-factor this year:

Correa, Buxton, Vasquez - will they bounce back?
Julien, Lewis, Wallner - will they hit sophomore slumps or continue to improve?
Kiriloff - can he stay healthy enough to secure a permanent role?
Santana - can he fight off father time another year?
Kepler - which version are we going to get this year?
Paddack - Is he back to form following surgery?
<insert AAA player here> - can they contribute at the major league level?

The main problem is that the Twins need 90% of these things to go right to be successful this year...

Most of these didn't go right last year. And we won not only the division, but a playoff game and an entire series!! Take a deep breath. 

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They don't have an automated strike zone at AA.

Thank you, I heard wrong.

[DocBauer]

Why the impatience regarding Lee? He got a couple months of pro ball after being drafted and reached AA. In his 1st full season he spent about half of the season at AAA. And despite not being awesome, he was OK and got better by the week.  He's still young, still working on a couple of things, and isn't even on the 40 man yet. And there's no great, immediate need on the 40 man roster except maybe for a 4th OF, which Lee is not.

As much as I love Lee and am excited about him and his future, I wouldn't put him in place of Lewis, Correa, or Julien today.  Would you? We've got Kirilloff, Santana, and maybe Miranda at 1B right now. (It's not certain how close to 100% Miranda is, or how soon he will be). So Julien isn't moving to full time 1B just yet. The DH spot is rather open, but that's also by plan.

There's just nothing lost by letting Lee begin the season at AAA to polish some things, and to provide depth until needed and opportunity arises. Because, as always, these things happen. And in the meantime, you keep a really well put together roster for now instead of forcing someone off of it to wedge Lee in.

 

[IaBeanCounter]

Lee isn't on the 40 man roster yet.  I would expect to see Martin to be ahead of Lee, as he gives the option of being an additional right handed bat in the outfield.  

[jorgenswest]

I just want Lee to have the opportunity to win a job in the spring. I will always be the first to argue that spring training stats have no meaning. That doesn’t mean that his performance in the spring has no value. Slash stats can’t measure that performance. It is on the staff to make the assessment.

There are some parallels to Chuck Knoblauch. He was drafted in 1989 and played in AA in 1990. He did well but not dominant. He used his non roster invite to dominate in the 1991 spring training sending the 1990 starter to a bench role. Knoblauch didn’t quite have the draft pedigree (25th) or the prospect rank (72 BA) but close. Both grew up with baseball Dads. Knoblauch’s dad playing in the minors for 8 years before becoming a legendary high school manager in Texas. There are several parallels.

The bar is high. Lee needs to show he is ready to be an everyday player at the major league level and the Twins really need one more everyday player. If he brings it in the spring they need to make space. Knoblauch’s impact was significant in 1991. Lee’s can be too.

 

[Fatbat]

@LA VIkes Fan I agree with most of what you said. I do believe that our prospect depth is deeper than most think. I do hope that we don’t need to do the break glass emergency call ups because of multiple bad injuries.  That will derail any team no matter how deep they are. 
I base my positivity on starters being healthy all season with minor DL stints.  No UCL tears, no torn knee ligaments. Its a given that we will have a couple shoulder impingements, oblique strains and such but somehow. If we are going deep into the playoffs,  we need everyone healthy in October !!

[Fatbat]

@jorgenswest Some guys just have it. Coaches kids that are athletic and love the game kinda have an unfair advantage.  I remember that ‘91 spring well! What a great team!!

[mikelink45]

I just find it really hard to comment about teams. Spending. Baseball is such an anomaly. No spinning cap. No distribution of earnings. Just a lot of independent and extremely rich owners who can do whatever the hell they want. And the rest of us just sit back and watch the team and hope for the best. I'd love to see Lee come up just because I like seeing the young guys come up early and have a long career, but he doesn't resolve the major issues which really are in the outfield

[Shaitan]

6 hours ago, miracleb said:

Regarding winning ROY in 2024 and getting the additional draft pick.  I love that idea!  BUT.....what is to keep the Twins from keeping him in AAA all of 2024 and he would have an even better chance of winning the ROY in 2025 ....to be able to get the draft pick!  It sounds like it has to be THIS year....but could someone fill me in on why that is the case.........TY!

If they're just playing for draft picks, there is a way to pick even higher...

As others said, that "reward" is just a lottery. Not a strategy.

That, and the MLB draft is pretty much a lottery in the first place.

[Jocko87]

Interesting that the chase rate is the main issue. It's quite encouraging as it's one of the things you would expect a young hitter to have to adjust as he faces better and better pitching as the levels increase.

He had a similar slow start at AA. Did his chase rate spike and adjust as he started hitting? I don't quite know how to parse that data but my recollection is that he started slow at each level. I'd be very happy to see his chase rate declining at each stop. It would indicate a very high level of adaptation.

[jkcarew]

The sample size against lefties is always ‘small’. But that doesn’t mean all that much when you need to win a game against a lefty starter, or get on base against a left-handed reliever in high leverage.

His unfavorable numbers are not limited to his time in St. Paul…they were poor at Wichita also.

Needs to improve or simply give it up and focus on the left-handed swing.

25-man Conundrum, because if the numbers as a left-handed batter translate, he really does make the club better in 75% of scenarios. Move Julien to 1B/DH, and away we go.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

If he proves he's ready to hit in the majors early this season, I'm all in with getting him up and rounding out the infield. But, given his experience and the areas you've noted here I think he needs a bit more seasoning in AAA before he's ready to make that leap.

Julien proved by the end of last season that he is able to play at least an average 2B and potential to be a good defender, but there's no argument as to who I'd rather have playing there long term in an infield of Lewis-Correa-Lee-Julien.

And he's always been a better hitter from the left-handed batter's box, but if he can figure out how to be a decent OBP guy vs. lefties it would really help this left-handed hitter heavy team out. 

I like the group of 4 but I’d consider leaving Julien at 2B - let Lee play 3B - CC at short - Lewis at 1B.

2025:

To me, going forward, it would be good for Lewis to play both corner IF spots & DH…….Kirilloff in LF or at 1B when Lewis is elsewhere…….Lee at 3B & depth at SS……Julien at 2B & DH.

Julien at 1B scares me……at least at this point.

Santana & Farmer both gone next year.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I like the group of 4 but I’d consider leaving Julien at 2B - let Lee play 3B - CC at short - Lewis at 1B.

2025:

To me, going forward, it would be good for Lewis to play both corner IF spots & DH…….Kirilloff in LF or at 1B when Lewis is elsewhere…….Lee at 3B & depth at SS……Julien at 2B & DH.

Julien at 1B scares me……at least at this point.

Santana & Farmer both gone next year.

This is the first time I've heard anyone suggest Lewis at 1B, and I don't think I like it haha

[miracleb]

12 hours ago, Shaitan said:

If they're just playing for draft picks, there is a way to pick even higher...

As others said, that "reward" is just a lottery. Not a strategy.

That, and the MLB draft is pretty much a lottery in the first place.

so.....no answer....LOL!

[TwinsDr2021]

18 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I fall in between Fatbat and Fire Dan Gladden.

 

I would argue this team looks a lot like the 21 Twins, Swap out Sano for AK (do we really have higher hopes for AK than Sano that year?) Swap out Polanco for Julien (same question), swap out Donaldson (his WAR was 3.2) for Lewis (I do hope Lewis outperforms Donaldson but by how much?, Correa way better than Simmons, Outfield Kepler/Buxton/Larch vs Kepler/Buxton/Wallner (Buxton was coming off a pretty good 20 and a not good 23), Jeffers/Garver vs Jeffers/Vazquez, and Arraez and the turtle.

Rotation: Maeda coming off a 2nd place cy young finish, Berrios, Pineda, Ober, Happ (who I think all/most of us thought would be viable starter, Shoe, Dobnak, Jax, Thorpe, and what was supposed to be a solid pen, Rogers, Colome, Thielbar, Duffey, Alcala, Robles,

So taking a looks I think the expectation of the offense was higher in 2021, the rotation a smidge in favor of this year, bullpen again a smidge in this years favor.

With that said lets hope for health this year and things should be fine, I get real worried if Buxton goes down, and Lopez or Ryan or Ober go down for an extended period, and this bullpen isn't what people are saying it is. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

This is the first time I've heard anyone suggest Lewis at 1B, and I don't think I like it haha

Lewis at 1B would make him a lock to be a 10 time allstar and gold glove. 

[Trov]

Barring injuries I find it unlikely he breaks camp with Twins.  Even if he tears it up.  Mainly because they will want him full time playing, and he will not get that out the gate with the Twins.  At some point it is likely someone in the infield gets injured and then Lee will get a shot.  If he comes out gate blazing they will find a spot for him rest of the year, if he does not, he will go back until another injury. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 2/21/2024 at 9:42 PM, Byrdman said:

Lee needs time at AAA.  I don't expect him to be with the team until the 2nd half of the year.  Unless some injuries happen he will stay at AAA. There is honestly not a roster spot for him currently.  Unless we move Farmer or Castro. 

Probably the most likely scenario is an injury to one of the starters, making a Lee callup a necessity. Right now, just too many cooks in the kitchen for him to get any meaningful MLB playing time with the Twins. I hope he's a patient man!