Front Office thoughts, in light of the Gordon trade

[ashbury]

These thoughts pertain more to FalVine than to Nick Gordon himself, so I'm separating this from the trade discussion involving Okert.

1. The front office plays hardball regarding salary arbitration.  Once the player didn't see the wisdom of coming to terms before the arbitrator's decision, win or lose, Gordon was probably gone with a tentative deal with Miami in place, and the timing was only to determine what Miami would return in trade (or whether the Twins would include a bit of cash to cover Gordon's salary if he won arbitration).  I know I'm reading more between the lines than some here will stand for, but I look at this as a move the FO finds necessary once in a while, to send a message for later years.  Or, maybe they felt Gordon was a bit disgruntled after losing, and might be a clubhouse distraction.  Either way, message delivered, if you ask me.  If it were roster-balance alone, the trade could have happened long ago or later on.  Somehow, bridges got burned.
2. The 40-man roster is now 22 pitchers and 18 position players, if I counted correctly.  Some view this as a signal a new batter is going to be acquired, such as a right-handed hitting outfielder.  I think the numbers are actually what the FO is comfortable with.  If anything, since we're now a bit heavy on relief arms there is still room for an additional starting pitcher, with recent waiver-wire pickup Zack Weiss as the final roster casualty.

[tony&rodney]

Don't think Falvey paid any attention at all about Gordon trying for another $100,000. Gordon was out of options and a long shot to make the team. Okert was in the exact same position in the Marlins franchise. Works for both teams. It is can't hurt and nothing lost trade. Gordon was well liked by everyone. i wish him good luck, health, and prosperity.

[Squirrel]

Speculation is fun. There is always a basis for ‘I can see this being the case.’ But keeping Gordon regardless was always going to cause other issues. If he were a rightie, there likely would have been less issues, but there always was a log jam there, especially since he was out of options. The timing of events lends to the speculation, but all the reports I’d read that Gordon was an exceptional clubhouse personality and very well liked, even through the playoffs. I think his time just ran out and it was a case of get something or nothing. I’m skeptical there was more to it, but who knows. Ah to be a fly on the wall.

[stringer bell]

Didn't Luis Arraez take the Twins to arbitration too? I think Arraez ruffled the feathers of Miami refusing to settle for the second year in a row. Honestly, I don't know if a trade was certain as soon as Gordon didn't settle, but I don't think it helps job security. 

If the Twins don't get a starter before the season starts or a right handed hitter who is good enough to get 500 or more plate appearances, I'm ready for the Twins to compete with what they have.

[Jocko87]

I don't feel like there were any burned bridges.  Gordon knew he had a tough route to the roster the whole time, I think.  I say I think because he didn't have much case for arbitration. It was the path he chose, not the Twins.  The Twins playing out the process shows they valued the player rather than just a random DFA.

He was probably always going to be traded, knew it, and the club had to let the process play out to define the value.  If he wins the arbitration, he might get DFA'd rather than the Twins adding cash for a reliever. 

[Jocko87]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

If the Twins don't get a starter before the season starts or a right handed hitter who is good enough to get 500 or more plate appearances, I'm ready for the Twins to compete with what they have.

I feel like a starter is off the table at this point but a Soler might be a closer option.

The TV deal being kicked down the road makes someone signing a Correa wait for next year contract more likely and I can see a 15m spend but not a 30m. 

[DocBauer]

I don't see any burnt bridges myself. The Twins stuck by Gordon and brought him back when he could have been a possible DFA. The Twins also have a really good history of settling on deals with eligible players before ever getting to Arbitration. I think the deal happened now simply as both sides were waiting for the hearing to be complete. 

I think the roster is just about right, and we all know the 40 man is fluid during the season with a DFA or two as necessary, and the 60 man when someone has a long term injury. But simple logic and roster prudence tells me the Twins have the need and opportunity to add one more piece to the roster yet. And that's a RH hitting OF to help deepen and balance the player side of things.

Once again, there are a few guys available. The most obvious ones...not a heavy $ cost or long term deal...would be the speed and defense of Taylor as a 4th OF, like he was supposed to be last season, or a Duvall/Pham who are corner OF with HR power and decent defense. Not exciting, but either direction adds someone who sit Wallner/Kepler against a LHSP, and Taylor can obviously help brilliantly in CF again. I think we're talking a 1yr for $5-7M per. The Twins can do that, and need to do that.

It's possible they just really believe Martin is ready to go right now, and they are confident he will be able to play 4 games out of 6 in a normal week in various capacities. Now ME, despite re-establishing himself with a great AFL and a really nice 1/3 of the season in AAA...including a tremendous August...I'm not ready to give him that job yet. And I think the Twins would like him to be playing every day for the first couple of months in AAA. 

[jorgenswest]

Gordon was Super 2 so that seemingly small amount at the start of the arb process could mean more each of the next three years of control. The money still shouldn’t have swayed their decision.

If they believed in the projections and believe in the fielding metrics from 2022 Gordon would have been valuable to the team when Polanco was traded. He could have been the platoon partner with Farmer at 2B with Julien at DH or 1B and the Santana money use for a bat that can play outfield. If they believed in the ZIPs projections he could have been an average CF in a platoon and insurance against Buxton. They may think they don’t need Buxton insurance.

They didn’t believe. For Gordon’s sake I hope they are wrong. They also can’t make the mistake of letting go of four years of control when the budget is so tight. They are really gambling on several decline phase players in 2024 with little upside. It reminds me of the 2012 decisions to add players like Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton, Jeff Gray, Sean Burroughs, Joel Zumaya and Matt Carson. Additional they had given Pavano a two year addition the previous year, signed Nishioka to an inexpensive contract (relative to a starter), forfeited a Matt Capps comp pick in order to give him two more years and hoped on minor league free agent Sam Deduno. A few of these like Willingham and Burton worked OK for a year but all were short sighted. All had declined to little use by 2013 and they continued the cycle of mediocrity by adding Correia, Pelfrey and Roenicke.

[DJL44]

They have somehow put together a top-rated bullpen with Caleb Thielbar as the most expensive player.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think the front office did this to send a message.

But the only reason the front office would have put Nick Gordon on the 26-man roster was because he was out of options, they didn't know what to do with him and they were scared to lose him. And that's a bad reason to keep a guy. So, for my sports team, if I had to chose between a vindictive leader or a frightened and indecisive leader, I'd go with the vindictive one.

But again, I think it was neither.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Gordon was Super 2 so that seemingly small amount at the start of the arb process could mean more each of the next three years of control. The money still shouldn’t have swayed their decision.

If they believed in the projections and believe in the fielding metrics from 2022 Gordon would have been valuable to the team when Polanco was traded. He could have been the platoon partner with Farmer at 2B with Julien at DH or 1B and the Santana money use for a bat that can play outfield. If they believed in the ZIPs projections he could have been an average CF in a platoon and insurance against Buxton. They may think they don’t need Buxton insurance.

They didn’t believe. For Gordon’s sake I hope they are wrong. They also can’t make the mistake of letting go of four years of control when the budget is so tight. They are really gambling on several decline phase players in 2024 with little upside. It reminds me of the 2012 decisions to add players like Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton, Jeff Gray, Sean Burroughs, Joel Zumaya and Matt Carson. Additional they had given Pavano a two year addition the previous year, signed Nishioka to an inexpensive contract (relative to a starter), forfeited a Matt Capps comp pick in order to give him two more years and hoped on minor league free agent Sam Deduno. A few of these like Willingham and Burton worked OK for a year but all were short sighted. All had declined to little use by 2013 and they continued the cycle of mediocrity by adding Correia, Pelfrey and Roenicke.

Not seeing the correlation between 2012 and 2024. In 2012, they had a complete re-set in terms of personnel. Thus far, they've tweaked the edges and added to the bullpen without doing anything to the core. In 2012, they needed the additions to have big seasons in order for there to be a competitive team. In 2024, the season hinges on the same guys as it did last year while hoping that the bullpen is more up to the task - and if its not, there's enough in the pipeline so that they can get the right mix of arms.

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Gordon was Super 2 so that seemingly small amount at the start of the arb process could mean more each of the next three years of control. The money still shouldn’t have swayed their decision.

If they believed in the projections and believe in the fielding metrics from 2022 Gordon would have been valuable to the team when Polanco was traded. He could have been the platoon partner with Farmer at 2B with Julien at DH or 1B and the Santana money use for a bat that can play outfield. If they believed in the ZIPs projections he could have been an average CF in a platoon and insurance against Buxton. They may think they don’t need Buxton insurance.

They didn’t believe. For Gordon’s sake I hope they are wrong. They also can’t make the mistake of letting go of four years of control when the budget is so tight. They are really gambling on several decline phase players in 2024 with little upside. It reminds me of the 2012 decisions to add players like Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton, Jeff Gray, Sean Burroughs, Joel Zumaya and Matt Carson. Additional they had given Pavano a two year addition the previous year, signed Nishioka to an inexpensive contract (relative to a starter), forfeited a Matt Capps comp pick in order to give him two more years and hoped on minor league free agent Sam Deduno. A few of these like Willingham and Burton worked OK for a year but all were short sighted. All had declined to little use by 2013 and they continued the cycle of mediocrity by adding Correia, Pelfrey and Roenicke.

Gordon got his shot and established his value before the team had Castro as a utility guy, before Farmer came as the real MI backup, and before Martin (and possibly others) started pushing up from behind him. There are better options now than his poor OBP and mediocre glove and the team had moved on. This likely isn't messaging or ill-will, it's the evolution of a roster and a guy getting squeezed by better and/or younger players.  Rather than ill-will it's probably a favor to him to put him on a roster that needs more flexibility and places a higher value on his CF play.

Best of luck Nick, you were fun to watch and a good interview which checks most of my boxes as a fan. (I'm a sucker for speed doubles, what can I say?)

[stringer bell]

The most animosity I recall in contract/service time in recent years is when the team didn't call Buxton back several seasons ago, which guaranteed an additional year of team control. I don't even know if it is the current Front Office. Money seemed to paper over any hard feelings in that case.

I don't know if trading Gordon was a shot across the bow or was a natural consequence of a roster crunch where Nick didn't fit well. I do believe that other players knowing that if you don't play ball in arbitration you're more likely to be traded may be a message they want to send while having plausible deniability.

I don't hear all the rumors about players, but someone who is seemingly well-liked by fans and the field staff (Luis Arraez) seems to have raised some hackles with his contract two years in a row. Gordon had very little leverage although he was in arbitration. I don't know if it was in his best interest to go to the mat for $350K.

[jorgenswest]

16 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Gordon got his shot and established his value before the team had Castro as a utility guy, before Farmer came as the real MI backup, and before Martin (and possibly others) started pushing up from behind him. There are better options now than his poor OBP and mediocre glove and the team had moved on. This likely isn't messaging or ill-will, it's the evolution of a roster and a guy getting squeezed by better and/or younger players.  Rather than ill-will it's probably a favor to him to put him on a roster that needs more flexibility and places a higher value on his CF play.

Best of luck Nick, you were fun to watch and a good interview which checks most of my boxes as a fan. (I'm a sucker for speed doubles, what can I say?)

I don’t get why my post was quoted here. There is nothing about ill will at all in mine. I don’t think there is ill will at all. I think there assessment of Gordon is that he isn’t talented enough for the four years of control to pay off. They had better be right because the roster is filled with players who are nearing them end of their careers.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Gordon was well liked (by all accounts) by his teammates but he was also in a logjam and probably doesn't make the team out of spring training. Trading him makes sense especially when the return provides a safe guard against father time catching up to Thielbar and/or Funderburk regressing.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I still have PTSD from Moran and Headrick so if the Twins are able to add a more than competent lefty to the bullpen, I'm happy - regardless of any hidden agendas or vendettas. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

Is there another BS unwritten rule I don't know about that indicates a player should not avail themselves of the collectively bargained right to salary arbitration?  

There is zero chance Gordon was traded out of spite or to send a message.  

[tony&rodney]

Some people have made comments that were seemingly derogatory about Gordon and seemed surprised to gain a reliever that could stick on the roster.

The trade was a classic February/March deal. Each team had a good player who had a very slim chance of making their team's roster, was out of options, and would be DFA if no deal was found. Poof, a deal transpired. Gordon improves the Marlins and Okert improves the Twins. 

[NotAboutWinning]

This trade leaves an opening on the. It's not the Twins way to bring up a young player to fill a bench spot unless injuries have left no other choice. So this seems to foreshadow another trade/FA signing. Thoughts?

[Eris]

I thought that a team could release a player in/after spring training (don’t know the details) if they lost arbitration with out owing them the guaranteed portion of their salary. Not sure if this applies if the team wins arbitration. 
 

Am not 100% sure that what I have written is correct. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

I thought that a team could release a player in/after spring training (don’t know the details) if they lost arbitration with out owing them the guaranteed portion of their salary. Not sure if this applies if the team wins arbitration. 
 

Am not 100% sure that what I have written is correct. 

I think the salary is guaranteed as soon as a contract is tendered. 

[Twinsgypsy]

On 2/11/2024 at 4:31 PM, Squirrel said:

Speculation is fun. There is always a basis for ‘I can see this being the case.’ But keeping Gordon regardless was always going to cause other issues. If he were a rightie, there likely would have been less issues, but there always was a log jam there, especially since he was out of options. The timing of events lends to the speculation, but all the reports I’d read that Gordon was an exceptional clubhouse personality and very well liked, even through the playoffs. I think his time just ran out and it was a case of get something or nothing. I’m skeptical there was more to it, but who knows. Ah to be a fly on the wall.

What were Bullwinkles thoughts about on tis move ?  ;)  ;)

[Craig Arko]

48 minutes ago, Twinsgypsy said:

What were Bullwinkles thoughts about on tis move ?  ;)  ;)

Watch me pull a rabbit out of this hat…

[LA Vikes Fan]

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Some people have made comments that were seemingly derogatory about Gordon and seemed surprised to gain a reliever that could stick on the roster.

The trade was a classic February/March deal. Each team had a good player who had a very slim chance of making their team's roster, was out of options, and would be DFA if no deal was found. Poof, a deal transpired. Gordon improves the Marlins and Okert improves the Twins. 

Simple as that. Nothing else to see here. 

[harmony55]

On 2/12/2024 at 7:22 AM, DJL44 said:

They have somehow put together a top-rated bullpen with Caleb Thielbar as the most expensive player.

In that respect the Minnesota bullpen resembles Seattle's well-regarded bullpen which has only three relievers earning more than the league minimum, topped by closer Andres Munoz at only $2.19 million (followed by swingmen Austin Voth and Trent Thornton at $1.25 million and $1.2 million, respectively). BTW swingman Anthony DeSclafani should cost the Twins $4 million this year.

WAR is not a great measure for relievers, but last year the Mariners ranked sixth in bullpen fWAR with 5.7 in 548 innings while the Twins ranked 21st with 3.2 in 556.1 innings:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Nevertheless the FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Twins bullpen second in 2024 WAR with 4.7 in 560 innings while projecting the Mariner bullpen 12th with 3.2 in 547 innings:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

Blame it on Justin Topa.😁

[TopGunn#22]

I think this deal was tentatively agreed to and both teams were just waiting on Gordon's final number for cost certainty.  The Marlins had a need for a player with Gordon's ability.  The Twins needed one more lefty in the bullpen for when Theilbar suffers one of his 3 trips to the I.L.  It works for everybody.

I could see a Duval or Pham getting added as RH hitting outfield options.  Possibly even Taylor.  What I would like to see the Twins F.O. do after they have secured one more RH hitting OF, is sign Brandon Woodruff to a 2 or 3 year contract and let him rehab for the 2024 season.  Now that the Twins should be getting a $47 million or so dollar windfall for their TV contract, I think it would be a shrewd move to add a top of the rotation type of pitcher like Woodruff.  

[Cris E]

23 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t get why my post was quoted here. There is nothing about ill will at all in mine. I don’t think there is ill will at all. I think there assessment of Gordon is that he isn’t talented enough for the four years of control to pay off. They had better be right because the roster is filled with players who are nearing them end of their careers.

Sorry, I was responding to your idea that Gordon still had a place on this roster.  The ill-will was something someone else said but it sort of fit and I'm not always a disciplined writer when it comes to narrow, focused responses.

[Cris E]

8 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I think this deal was tentatively agreed to and both teams were just waiting on Gordon's final number for cost certainty.  The Marlins had a need for a player with Gordon's ability.  The Twins needed one more lefty in the bullpen for when Theilbar suffers one of his 3 trips to the I.L.  It works for everybody.

I could see a Duval or Pham getting added as RH hitting outfield options.  Possibly even Taylor.  What I would like to see the Twins F.O. do after they have secured one more RH hitting OF, is sign Brandon Woodruff to a 2 or 3 year contract and let him rehab for the 2024 season.  Now that the Twins should be getting a $47 million or so dollar windfall for their TV contract, I think it would be a shrewd move to add a top of the rotation type of pitcher like Woodruff.  

I don't think they'll sign a RH corner OF unless he's really cheap and a good fit. They don't want to block any youngsters like ERod with muli-year deals and they do want to save some money for mid-year moves in case someone is terrible or gets hurt or unexpectedly becomes available.

Brandon Woodruff, OTOH, is a star and will expect to be paid like one. There might be a one year discount for the recovery year, but only when paired with a 3-5 year deal for real money. He'll sign a 4/$75m somewhere.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

Brandon Woodruff, OTOH, is a star and will expect to be paid like one. There might be a one year discount for the recovery year, but only when paired with a 3-5 year deal for real money. He'll sign a 4/$75m somewhere.

Let someone else make that mistake. Brandon Woodruff is a 30 year old pitcher with a serious shoulder injury. Ask Glen Perkins how that works out.

[Jeff K]

On 2/11/2024 at 7:21 PM, DocBauer said:

I don't see any burnt bridges myself. The Twins stuck by Gordon and brought him back when he could have been a possible DFA. The Twins also have a really good history of settling on deals with eligible players before ever getting to Arbitration. I think the deal happened now simply as both sides were waiting for the hearing to be complete. 

I think the roster is just about right, and we all know the 40 man is fluid during the season with a DFA or two as necessary, and the 60 man when someone has a long term injury. But simple logic and roster prudence tells me the Twins have the need and opportunity to add one more piece to the roster yet. And that's a RH hitting OF to help deepen and balance the player side of things.

Once again, there are a few guys available. The most obvious ones...not a heavy $ cost or long term deal...would be the speed and defense of Taylor as a 4th OF, like he was supposed to be last season, or a Duvall/Pham who are corner OF with HR power and decent defense. Not exciting, but either direction adds someone who sit Wallner/Kepler against a LHSP, and Taylor can obviously help brilliantly in CF again. I think we're talking a 1yr for $5-7M per. The Twins can do that, and need to do that.

It's possible they just really believe Martin is ready to go right now, and they are confident he will be able to play 4 games out of 6 in a normal week in various capacities. Now ME, despite re-establishing himself with a great AFL and a really nice 1/3 of the season in AAA...including a tremendous August...I'm not ready to give him that job yet. And I think the Twins would like him to be playing every day for the first couple of months in AAA. 

It certainly appears that the Twins are in a good position to re-sign Taylor as he is a very good fit.  I've read that he was looking for $9 Million +/-.  With spring training gearing up, I would think the Twins could sign him for $7 million and that seems like a good spend.  They can address starting pitching (if needed) by the trade deadline.