Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #4 Marco Raya, RHP

[Nick Nelson]

For a while, Marco Raya was considered the best-kept secret in the Twins system. Now that he's had a chance to show his stuff on the mound, leaving no doubt of his ability, he just needs to prove he can hold up against a professional starter's workload... if that is, indeed, the plan.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Age: 21 (DOB: 8/7/2002)
2023 Stats (A+/AA): 62 2/3 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
ETA: 2025
2023 Ranking: 4

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What's To Like
Selected out of a Texas high school in the fourth round of the 2020 draft, Marco Raya didn't make his official professional debut until 2022. By then, people in the organization had been raving about the young hurler's work behind the scenes for months, talking about how much promise he showed with a stellar fastball/slider combo. I made him my "pick to click" in that year's top prospect list recap at Twins Daily.

The organization finally let Raya loose that season, and he definitely clicked, posting a 3.05 ERA in 65 innings at Low-A, where he was three full years younger than the average player. The outstanding performance vaulted him to No. 4 in last year's ranking, a spot he retains this time around following another impressive campaign.

While the Twins have been ultra-cautious with Raya's handling on the mound, they've also been very aggressive in pushing the right-hander competitively. Despite a relatively short stint at Low-A in 2022, he opened the 2023 season at High-A Cedar Rapids, where he continued to overpower more experienced opposition. In 11 starts for the Kernels, Raya posted a 2.93 ERA and 39-to-8 K/BB ratio in 33 ⅔ innings, holding opponents to a .192/.250/.325 triple-slash. 

Twins decision-makers were impressed enough that they once again promoted Raya, making him one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A after totaling fewer than 100 innings in A-ball. The 20-year-old righty struggled with the transition at first (11.08 ERA, 13/11 K/BB in his first six starts), but settled in and cruised to the finish line for Wichita (0.56 ERA, 13/3 K/BB in his last five starts).

Raya throws a high-spin fastball that clocks at 94-96 MPH and is difficult to square up, but he mixes in a lot of breaking balls. That's where his real strength lies. In particular, the oft-used slider has been a tremendous weapon for him at every level, in large part because he can throw it where he wants with precision. "Raya’s slider has above-average horizontal movement, and he has the ability to get swings and misses in the zone with it," according to Baseball America. "He actually has better command of his slider than his fastball."

When you have stuff like this and can throw it for strikes, you're going to be successful in the minors, even against more seasoned and accomplished competition. We've seen that play out consistently for Raya. It explains why the Twins have been comfortable advancing him so aggressively, and it's why we should feel good about Raya continuing to get results as he keeps moving up the ladder toward a not-too-distant MLB debut.

What's Left To Work On
When it comes to development, the Twins have clearly adopted an attitude that there's not much value in having young pitchers pile up a bunch of innings in the minors. Looking through game logs for any of their highly-rated starter prospects last year, you will rarely find an instance of someone pitching into the sixth inning or approaching 100 pitches. 

Raya has been on the extreme end, to the point where one could argue the organization is handling him with kid gloves. Although 39 of his 41 professional appearances have been starts, and he's obviously pitched well, Raya has only averaged a bit over three innings per outing. Last year, he never once pitched into even the fifth inning, nor threw more than 54 pitches. 

I can certainly see the logic in this philosophy. Throwing at max effort in game action is very hard on the body, and there's a cost to wasting bullets. Minor-league games ultimately don't matter for much other than development, and a lot of that can be handled on the side, as Raya's journey exemplifies. But the extent to which he's been held back does limit our ability to evaluate and project his potential as a major-league starter. 

Is his skinny yet athletic 6-foot-1 frame up to the task of sustaining velocity past 60 or 70 pitches? We don't know; we've never seen it. Will his stuff play against lineups multiple times? He never got through the batting order even two full times in a start last year, much less a third.

Until he answers these questions, it'll be hard to envision Raya as anything approximating a traditional 200-inning starter. But the talent and performance have been so excellent that it's easy to envision him as an effective major-league pitcher, which is why Twins Daily has him ranked as the organization's top pitching prospect for a second straight year.

What's Next
Raya is likely to open his age-21 season back at Double-A. From there, he seems to have two paths forward in 2024. Either the Twins will start to focus on extending his outings and building him up toward a true starter's workload, or they'll continue to use him in shorter bursts with an eye on getting him to the majors quickly. 

Conceivably, Raya could join the big-league staff at some point during the season, perhaps as a multi-inning reliever. He'd be one of the youngest pitchers to debut for the Twins in decades.

Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown

Honorable Mentions
20. Zebby Matthews, RHP
19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
18. Ricardo Olivar, OF
17. Connor Prielipp, LHP
16. Matt Canterino, RHP
15. Yunior Severino, 1B
14. Danny De Andrade, SS
13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP
12. Kala'i Rosario, OF
11. Luke Keaschall, 2B
10. Tanner Schobel, 2B
9. Brandon Winokur, OF
8. Charlee Soto, RHP
7. Cory Lewis, RHP
5. David Festa, RHP
4. Marco Raya, RHP

Check back tomorrow for a look at our No. 3 prospect of 2024, and this evening for a bonus insert to the list! For now, let's hear your thoughts on Marco Raya. What's the next step for his development?

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[Mike Sixel]

200 innings? What year was this written?

Only 15 pitchers pitched more than 190 innings last year. I have no idea why this is a thing at all in people's minds anymore.

Only 58 pitchers pitched 150 or more innings. Really. I just don't get this idea that 200 is any kind of target at all.

Now, had you said even 120 innings, I'd nod and say "ya, that's a good question" at this point. 

Me? I'm betting he goes 4 innings a start, give or take, to start the year. He finishes the year in the major league bullpen for the last month and playoffs.

[DJL44]

I don't expect to see Raya pitch for the Twins this year. He doesn't need to be added to the roster until next fall after the season ends. They are likely to limit him to less than 120 innings after pitching 63 in 2023 and that means he'll be shut down in September.

[chpettit19]

I'd think if they want him to have a shot at the MLB rotation in the next couple years they need to start extending him more in starts this year. 90+ innings? 100+ innings? I don't know what their limit will be with him, but I'd think eventually you have to test him at AA with trying to get into a lineup a third time. His numbers have been tremendous so I'm excited to see what he can do in extended innings in the upper minors.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't expect to see Raya pitch for the Twins this year. He doesn't need to be added to the roster until next fall after the season ends. They are likely to limit him to less than 120 innings after pitching 63 in 2023 and that means he'll be shut down in September.

I get this thinking, I hate this thinking. If he's better than some of the other 13 pitchers, clearly better, he should be up. While healthy.

[nicksaviking]

I'm happy to have many of the other pitchers in the system, but Raya is far and away the only one I'm stoked to see. He'd be my #3 prospect right now, and if the Twins let him start going more than 4 innings this year, E-Rod is going to have a hard time holding him off for my #2 spot.

[Brandon]

I think if he is on the 40 man roster and I haven't checked then he will have a chance to be up at the end of the year.  If there is a need and he earns it he will be up as well for a playoff push.  but otherwise, I see him debuting next season.  Need to keep those option years as long as possible.

[Brandon]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm happy to have many of the other pitchers in the system, but Raya is far and away the only one I'm stoked to see. He'd be my #3 prospect right now, and if the Twins let him start going more than 4 innings this year, E-Rod is going to have a hard time holding him off for my #2 spot.

Canterino also intrigues.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm happy to have many of the other pitchers in the system, but Raya is far and away the only one I'm stoked to see. He'd be my #3 prospect right now, and if the Twins let him start going more than 4 innings this year, E-Rod is going to have a hard time holding him off for my #2 spot.

Jenkins, Lee, ERod, Raya.....for me. 

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I get this thinking, I hate this thinking. If he's better than some of the other 13 pitchers, clearly better, he should be up. While healthy.

I'm with you. My only caveat is if his workload has increased enough that the Twins get him once he starts to tire out at the end of the year. Which I wouldn't penalize him for, but might mean he's not actually one of the best 13 pitchers at that particular moment. 

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jenkins, Lee, ERod, Raya.....for me. 

Yeah, I get it, and I'm sure that's how these rankings will fall.

I'm all over the highest ceiling guys at the moment. The team has so many options in AA and AAA and the majors that high floors aren't as enticing to me this year.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm with you. My only caveat is if his workload has increased enough that the Twins get him once he starts to tire out at the end of the year. Which I wouldn't penalize him for, but might mean he's not actually one of the best 13 pitchers at that particular moment. 

Hence "if" and "when healthy". MOST pitchers only have so many healthy pitches in their arms.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I get it, and I'm sure that's how these rankings will fall.

I'm all over the highest ceiling guys at the moment. The team has so many options in AA and AAA and the majors that high floors aren't as enticing to me this year.

I get that. I think people under-estimate the value of "certainty" with Lee. Also, his ceiling. But I get it. 

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I get this thinking, I hate this thinking. If he's better than some of the other 13 pitchers, clearly better, he should be up. While healthy.

If they're using data to make the decision he is going to run out of innings before they are able to determine that answer. He needs to show he's clearly better than 13 pitchers on the 40-man roster, plus Festa, Ohl and the dozen relievers they have in AAA. That will need at least 50 innings in AA to get promoted and another 50 in AAA to get enough data to make the decision. Otherwise you're promoting based on potential and not results.

They only get to add a couple extra arms. They don't get to bring up the whole 40 man roster anymore.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I get it, and I'm sure that's how these rankings will fall.

I'm all over the highest ceiling guys at the moment. The team has so many options in AA and AAA and the majors that high floors aren't as enticing to me this year.

I agree with this philosphy for the pitching side I am going to be really following highest ceiling pitchers this year.  Canterino, Raya, Priellip, Soto - then the next tier of Festa, Lewis and the rest of the 2022 and 2023 draft picks.  I know the depth is really starting to show up on the pitching side,  but I want to see a true #1 or #2 develop out of these options and I think there is a pretty good chance it happens even if its 1 to 2 or even 3 years out.  

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I get that. I think people under-estimate the value of "certainty" with Lee. Also, his ceiling. But I get it. 

I'd like to see Lee's power numbers and more importantly his OBP improve in the high minors. If it does, I'll reconsider my ceiling evaluation.

Unless he's playing for the Marlins, then I'd rather not see anything I might regret.

[Dman]

Raya gets some serious movement on his pitches.  I think he has the pitches to be a top of the rotation starter, but I do wonder if the arm will hold up.  He had some arm issues in fairly limited use in 2021 and they kept him with low pitch counts in 2022 to build up, so it will be interesting to see how he handles a heavier load.  Super excited about his potential though and having some home grown top of the rotation starters would help this team a lot.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I would guess virtually zero chance he pitches at Target this season. If he does then a lot of things must have went wrong at the ML level. Should be fun and interesting to watch him get stretched out.

[Fatbat]

He is sonny gray size so I have no worries about his arm. I think the Twins have something special in mind for him because his arsenal is so good and he is so young. So far his handling has been unique in the org.  They may be grooming him for a late season call up in ‘24 with a role to play in the playoffs.  He doesn’t need to be stretched out in may/june if they want 3/4 lock down innings in a few October games. 

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

He is sonny gray size so I have no worries about his arm. I think the Twins have something special in mind for him because his arsenal is so good and he is so young. So far his handling has been unique in the org.  They may be grooming him for a late season call up in ‘24 with a role to play in the playoffs.  He doesn’t need to be stretched out in may/june if they want 3/4 lock down innings in a few October games. 

I certainly hope they're open to the idea of him, or anyone, being a help in 2024, but I certainly hope they aren't counting on it in any way. And definitely not looking for 3 or 4 lock down innings in a playoff game. And I hope they aren't building their development plan around that idea. I know I've been on these boards pushing a "win now" mentality all offseason, but building a development plan around the idea of him being a key piece in the 2024 playoffs feels incredibly shortsighted. If he's one of their 9 to 11 best pitchers come August I hope they get him on the 40-man to be an option come October, but there's a whole lot of guys he needs to jump to get to the top 9 to 11.

[Fatbat]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I certainly hope they're open to the idea of him, or anyone, being a help in 2024, but I certainly hope they aren't counting on it in any way. And definitely not looking for 3 or 4 lock down innings in a playoff game. And I hope they aren't building their development plan around that idea. I know I've been on these boards pushing a "win now" mentality all offseason, but building a development plan around the idea of him being a key piece in the 2024 playoffs feels incredibly shortsighted. If he's one of their 9 to 11 best pitchers come August I hope they get him on the 40-man to be an option come October, but there's a whole lot of guys he needs to jump to get to the top 9 to 11.

Agreed. Its just something that has bounced around in my thoughts about 1. Keeping his innings low. 2. Pushing him to compete against more advanced players. It’s something that seems like a role for a more seasoned guy but if this works for him and the team to throw the best bulldog out on the mound in October. More the better for us as fans to cheer for. It would be a great start to his career and if it works, it would be a legacy of his to build on. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

200 innings? What year was this written?

Only 15 pitchers pitched more than 190 innings last year. I have no idea why this is a thing at all in people's minds anymore.

Only 58 pitchers pitched 150 or more innings. Really. I just don't get this idea that 200 is any kind of target at all.

Now, had you said even 120 innings, I'd nod and say "ya, that's a good question" at this point. 

Me? I'm betting he goes 4 innings a start, give or take, to start the year. He finishes the year in the major league bullpen for the last month and playoffs.

Why? because he is the Twins best pitching prospects and the best pitchers in baseball are around that number (yes, generally a bit lower)

I don't hope Raya turns into a 150-160 innings pitcher (which wouldn't be bad just not worthy of the Twins top pitching prospect). I want him to be one of the top pitchers in the league and those pitchers are generally between 180-205.

Will he get there this year, NOPE, next year, NOPE, but after that why not? I would ask how many minor league pitchers that don't attempt to pitch a 3rd time though, magically can do it in the majors? (I am not asking for that this year, but why not by 2026)

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why? because he is the Twins best pitching prospects and the best pitchers in baseball are around that number (yes, generally a bit lower)

I don't hope Raya turns into a 150-160 innings pitcher (which wouldn't be bad just not worthy of the Twins top pitching prospect). I want him to be one of the top pitchers in the league and those pitchers are generally between 180-205.

Will he get there this year, NOPE, next year, NOPE, but after that why not? I would ask how many minor league pitchers that don't attempt to pitch a 3rd time though, magically can do it in the majors? (I am not asking for that this year, but why not by 2026)

If he's one of the top pitchers in the game, he's worthy, and that what the top pitchers do, pitch 150 innings.

The article wasn't even about elite, it was about typical...... And I merely pointed out there's nothing typical about 200 innings, or even 190.... Or even 150. 

[roger]

Loved this kid when they picked him, like him better after seeing what he did last year.

Will yield to the Twins as to when he joins the Twins staff and in what role.

[DocBauer]

He was my favorite selection when the Twins drafted him in 2020. Not sure why, but it was reported the velocity was there, the work ethic was there, and he had a bulldog presence on the mound. I was very disappointed when we didn't see him in 2021.

What's crazy is the limit on IP and turns through the order, but pushing him all the way to AA as a 20yo. It seems to me the attitude is to protect the arm and build it's endurance up slowly, but simply saying...without saying it out loud...that his stuff is just too good to stay in A ball and it would be a waste of time.

He's not the biggest guy in the world, didn't throw after being drafted, and didn't throw in 2021. Right or wrong, they've been letting him mature physically and protecting his arm to this point. I'd be just fine if he spent all, or most all, of 2024 in AA just refining his stuff and building up his innings. After 62 IP last year, I'd say a minimum of 100 should be the target for this season. And I'd love to see 120. That's still only throwing about 5 per start. But it would put him on a build up to a big 2025 and a ML debut.

[gman]

I'd like to see them work him up to 5 innings per start this year. That may require some periods of time where he is starting every 6th day instead of very 5th. This should get him to 3 times through lineups  at times and at the same time conserve his number of pitches.

[Nick Nelson]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If he's one of the top pitchers in the game, he's worthy, and that what the top pitchers do, pitch 150 innings.

The article wasn't even about elite, it was about typical...... And I merely pointed out there's nothing typical about 200 innings, or even 190.... Or even 150. 

The article actually used the word "traditional" 200 inning starter, not typical. As in, starting pitchers were traditionally built up for a 200-IP type workload (not so long ago!) and Raya is an example -- albeit on the extreme end -- of how much the convention is being bucked these days. 

[jmlease1]

I really like Raya as a player. I don't mind treating him very carefully so as not to blow out his arm, but if they do see him as a MLB starter I would like to see him stretched out a little more this season. Let's see what happens when he goes 75 pitches or heads into the 5th inning. They can space out his starts a little more if they want to go carefully on him, but at a certain point he's not a starting pitcher prospect if he never throws more than about 3 innings in an outing.

#4 seems a reasonable spot for him, I wouldn't run any higher.

[High heat]

The Twins have to let him learn how to get hitters out a second and third time through the order.  If that means skipping starts and throwing on the side.  
 

To me right now he is an arm talent with only reliever ability can’t have him this high until he works through lineups.  Canterino has way more pitch ability and arm talent and has proven he can get minor leaguers out with stuff. 
 

Hopefully we see it in 2024 and Raya can get some upper minors experience.

[Trov]

I would love to see him get the chance to go deeper into games this year.  Let him see a line up 2 to 3 times through and how he does.  I would hope he starts at AA and let him pitch 5 plus innings a game.  I get he can develop on the side, but you only get the in game working a line up multiple times by doing it. If he never needs to learn how to pitch to a guy a second or third time, and work on setting them up for later in the game, then he will be set up to fail if we ask that of him down the road at MLB level.