Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #4 Marco Raya, RHP

I don't expect to see Raya pitch for the Twins this year. He doesn't need to be added to the roster until next fall after the season ends. They are likely to limit him to less than 120 innings after pitching 63 in 2023 and that means he'll be shut down in September.

I think if he is on the 40 man roster and I haven't checked then he will have a chance to be up at the end of the year.  If there is a need and he earns it he will be up as well for a playoff push.  but otherwise, I see him debuting next season.  Need to keep those option years as long as possible.

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm happy to have many of the other pitchers in the system, but Raya is far and away the only one I'm stoked to see. He'd be my #3 prospect right now, and if the Twins let him start going more than 4 innings this year, E-Rod is going to have a hard time holding him off for my #2 spot.

Canterino also intrigues.

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I get this thinking, I hate this thinking. If he's better than some of the other 13 pitchers, clearly better, he should be up. While healthy.

If they're using data to make the decision he is going to run out of innings before they are able to determine that answer. He needs to show he's clearly better than 13 pitchers on the 40-man roster, plus Festa, Ohl and the dozen relievers they have in AAA. That will need at least 50 innings in AA to get promoted and another 50 in AAA to get enough data to make the decision. Otherwise you're promoting based on potential and not results.

They only get to add a couple extra arms. They don't get to bring up the whole 40 man roster anymore.

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I get it, and I'm sure that's how these rankings will fall.

I'm all over the highest ceiling guys at the moment. The team has so many options in AA and AAA and the majors that high floors aren't as enticing to me this year.

I agree with this philosphy for the pitching side I am going to be really following highest ceiling pitchers this year.  Canterino, Raya, Priellip, Soto - then the next tier of Festa, Lewis and the rest of the 2022 and 2023 draft picks.  I know the depth is really starting to show up on the pitching side,  but I want to see a true #1 or #2 develop out of these options and I think there is a pretty good chance it happens even if its 1 to 2 or even 3 years out.  

I would guess virtually zero chance he pitches at Target this season. If he does then a lot of things must have went wrong at the ML level. Should be fun and interesting to watch him get stretched out.

He is sonny gray size so I have no worries about his arm. I think the Twins have something special in mind for him because his arsenal is so good and he is so young. So far his handling has been unique in the org.  They may be grooming him for a late season call up in ‘24 with a role to play in the playoffs.  He doesn’t need to be stretched out in may/june if they want 3/4 lock down innings in a few October games. 

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I certainly hope they're open to the idea of him, or anyone, being a help in 2024, but I certainly hope they aren't counting on it in any way. And definitely not looking for 3 or 4 lock down innings in a playoff game. And I hope they aren't building their development plan around that idea. I know I've been on these boards pushing a "win now" mentality all offseason, but building a development plan around the idea of him being a key piece in the 2024 playoffs feels incredibly shortsighted. If he's one of their 9 to 11 best pitchers come August I hope they get him on the 40-man to be an option come October, but there's a whole lot of guys he needs to jump to get to the top 9 to 11.

Agreed. Its just something that has bounced around in my thoughts about 1. Keeping his innings low. 2. Pushing him to compete against more advanced players. It’s something that seems like a role for a more seasoned guy but if this works for him and the team to throw the best bulldog out on the mound in October. More the better for us as fans to cheer for. It would be a great start to his career and if it works, it would be a legacy of his to build on. 

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

200 innings? What year was this written?

Only 15 pitchers pitched more than 190 innings last year. I have no idea why this is a thing at all in people's minds anymore.

Only 58 pitchers pitched 150 or more innings. Really. I just don't get this idea that 200 is any kind of target at all.

Now, had you said even 120 innings, I'd nod and say "ya, that's a good question" at this point. 

Me? I'm betting he goes 4 innings a start, give or take, to start the year. He finishes the year in the major league bullpen for the last month and playoffs.

Why? because he is the Twins best pitching prospects and the best pitchers in baseball are around that number (yes, generally a bit lower)

I don't hope Raya turns into a 150-160 innings pitcher (which wouldn't be bad just not worthy of the Twins top pitching prospect). I want him to be one of the top pitchers in the league and those pitchers are generally between 180-205.

Will he get there this year, NOPE, next year, NOPE, but after that why not? I would ask how many minor league pitchers that don't attempt to pitch a 3rd time though, magically can do it in the majors? (I am not asking for that this year, but why not by 2026)

Loved this kid when they picked him, like him better after seeing what he did last year.

Will yield to the Twins as to when he joins the Twins staff and in what role.

I really like Raya as a player. I don't mind treating him very carefully so as not to blow out his arm, but if they do see him as a MLB starter I would like to see him stretched out a little more this season. Let's see what happens when he goes 75 pitches or heads into the 5th inning. They can space out his starts a little more if they want to go carefully on him, but at a certain point he's not a starting pitcher prospect if he never throws more than about 3 innings in an outing.

#4 seems a reasonable spot for him, I wouldn't run any higher.

The Twins have to let him learn how to get hitters out a second and third time through the order.  If that means skipping starts and throwing on the side.  
 

To me right now he is an arm talent with only reliever ability can’t have him this high until he works through lineups.  Canterino has way more pitch ability and arm talent and has proven he can get minor leaguers out with stuff. 
 

Hopefully we see it in 2024 and Raya can get some upper minors experience.

I would love to see him get the chance to go deeper into games this year.  Let him see a line up 2 to 3 times through and how he does.  I would hope he starts at AA and let him pitch 5 plus innings a game.  I get he can develop on the side, but you only get the in game working a line up multiple times by doing it. If he never needs to learn how to pitch to a guy a second or third time, and work on setting them up for later in the game, then he will be set up to fail if we ask that of him down the road at MLB level.