Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #4 Marco Raya, RHP

[Guest]

Maybe the TWINS FO has seen the future of starting pitching and it is three inning and they have decided that Ray guy to start that trend.

[jkcarew]

Don’t know why they’ve gone over-the-top ultra/extreme conservative with his work load. Sure there’s a reason. But, it basically closes the book on any meaningful work with the big club in 2024. The only option being a bullpen role, further postponing his development as a starter.

 Pretty much HAVE to stretch him out in the minors this year. How can he prove he can/can’t be a starter until he’s tried? I’m guessing working up to at least 80-pitch, 5+ inning starts this year. And then we see him in 2025. The objective should be that you move him, with reasonable level of confidence, to the rotation NEXT spring, or make him a reliever. One or the other…right out of spring training. 

[Fatbat]

16 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

Maybe the TWINS FO has seen the future of starting pitching and it is three inning and they have decided that Ray guy to start that trend.

That’s definitely a playoff trend.

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Don’t know why they’ve gone over-the-top ultra/extreme conservative with his work load. Sure there’s a reason. But, it basically closes the book on any meaningful work with the big club in 2024. The only option being a bullpen role, further postponing his development as a starter.

 Pretty much HAVE to stretch him out in the minors this year. How can he prove he can/can’t be a starter until he’s tried? I’m guessing working up to at least 80-pitch, 5+ inning starts this year. And then we see him in 2025. The objective should be that you move him, with reasonable level of confidence, to the rotation NEXT spring, or make him a reliever. One or the other…right out of spring training. 

He is just a kid. He was pitching in AA as a 20 yo! He will probably be in AAA before his 22nd bday in june. I done see anything conservative other than not wearing out his arm like Rice university is famous for.  Its gonna be a minute longer for further development. Stay patient. 

[jkcarew]

8 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

He is just a kid. He was pitching in AA as a 20 yo! He will probably be in AAA before his 22nd bday in june. I done see anything conservative other than not wearing out his arm like Rice university is famous for.  Its gonna be a minute longer for further development. Stay patient. 

All fair points…but then you’re basically saying (as management) that we’re not ever debuting a starter before age 22-23…no matter how good and talented he is. He averaged LESS THAN 3 innings per start last year. He threw more innings at age 19 than he did at 20. Granted, maybe it’s because there is something about him that gives management pause.

[Fatbat]

35 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

All fair points…but then you’re basically saying (as management) that we’re not ever debuting a starter before age 22-23…no matter how good and talented he is. He averaged LESS THAN 3 innings per start last year. He threw more innings at age 19 than he did at 20. Granted, maybe it’s because there is something about him that gives management pause.

I haven’t researched when the best SP’s debut but just for reference, Paul Skenes is about 2 months older than Raya. Time will tell if Raya can keep pace with Skenes. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I haven’t researched when the best SP’s debut but just for reference, Paul Skenes is about 2 weeks older than Raya. Time will tell if Raya can keep pace with Skenes. 

No chance. Skenes could be a starter now in the majors. If he isn't, they aren't trying to win. 

[jkcarew]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

200 innings? What year was this written?

Only 15 pitchers pitched more than 190 innings last year. I have no idea why this is a thing at all in people's minds anymore.

Only 58 pitchers pitched 150 or more innings. Really. I just don't get this idea that 200 is any kind of target at all.

Now, had you said even 120 innings, I'd nod and say "ya, that's a good question" at this point. 

Me? I'm betting he goes 4 innings a start, give or take, to start the year. He finishes the year in the major league bullpen for the last month and playoffs.

Agree that the 120 innings…which would be a fine rookie and/or #5 starter number…is very much in question still. He was at LESS THAN 3 innings per start last year, which isn’t any more than he did the year before at age 19. Seems inordinately conservative even for the Twins. Now (presumably) he’ll be working deeper into games than he ever has as a pro…and against the best lineups he’s ever seen. Big challenge.

 

[SteveLV]

Skenes has a vastly different physical stature than Raya.  He is a beast.  He also was throwing 9 inning complete games in college, so is stretched out.

I have no problem with bringing young pitchers along slowly, ramping them up as they go.  I assume this is also on the recommendation of the medical experts, too.

[Doctor Wu]

I hope they can stretch him out more this year too. Okay, I understand the conservative developmental approach to some degree. He's still young and smaller in stature and they don't want to "overextend" his arm, or whatever. But c'mon, if you are going to be a starting pitcher in the system you NEED to be pitching more innings at some point in the near future. I realize that starters aren't pitching many complete games these days, but is it too much to ask for a 6-inning outing?

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I haven’t researched when the best SP’s debut but just for reference, Paul Skenes is about 2 months older than Raya. Time will tell if Raya can keep pace with Skenes. 

Not sure Skenes is the guy you want to put up against Raya right now. Skenes not debuting in the first few weeks of the season (to make him eligible to get the Pirates an extra pick down the road) would be a disappointment for him while Raya has a super small chance of debuting at any point in 2024. Their timelines are very different right now.

[Fatbat]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Not sure Skenes is the guy you want to put up against Raya right now. Skenes not debuting in the first few weeks of the season (to make him eligible to get the Pirates an extra pick down the road) would be a disappointment for him while Raya has a super small chance of debuting at any point in 2024. Their timelines are very different right now.

I mentioned Skenes for the very reason that other than age, everything about the two is completely different.  They both have MLB careers ahead of them but their respective paths are night and day different. 

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I mentioned Skenes for the very reason that other than age, everything about the two is completely different.  They both have MLB careers ahead of them but their respective paths are night and day different. 

Yeah, I'm not going to say Raya has an MLB career ahead of him yet. At least not as a starter. Skenes is going to debut this year. Early. Probably has a 50/50 shot at being in the opening day rotation for Pittsburgh. We're not sure Raya is even a AA starter yet. We were pretty positive Jordan Balazovic had an MLB future at this point, too. He was a top 100 prospect at Raya's age. He's not looking like he has an MLB career at this point. Raya has a long way to go yet. Skenes is walking through the door. I very much like the look of Raya right now, but until he clears a lineup a 2nd time at any point in professional baseball we need to slow down on him.

It feels very weird for me to be the "slow down on these prospects" guy this offseason. I'm typically on the other side. But I think the Julien, Wallner, Lewis trio in Minneapolis last year has gotten us a little to excited about what all these guys are going to be.

[nicksaviking]

I see some interesting things doing a Fangraphs age search on pitchers.

31 pitchers have debuted at age 21 or younger since 2010. Yeah, no Twins, no one's surprised.

However, while there were six teams with one such pitcher, there were eight teams with multiple pitchers.  And five of those teams did it THREE times. Atlanta, Houston, LAA, St. Louis and Toronto accounted for nearly half of all pitchers called up at the age of 21 or younger. 

So 16 teams haven't done it at all, this does clearly seem to be organizational prerogative, no way these numbers are a coincidence.

[Fatbat]

17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I see some interesting things doing a Fangraphs age search on pitchers.

31 pitchers have debuted at age 21 or younger since 2010. Yeah, no Twins, no one's surprised.

However, while there were six teams with one such pitcher, there were eight teams with multiple pitchers.  And five of those teams did it THREE times. Atlanta, Houston, LAA, St. Louis and Toronto accounted for nearly half of all pitchers called up at the age of 21 or younger. 

So 16 teams haven't done it at all, this does clearly seem to be organizational prerogative, no way these numbers are a coincidence.

Thats some serious info right there.  Some sort of scouting expertise that is focused on certain traits?

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Thats some serious info right there.  Some sort of scouting expertise that is focused on certain traits?

Could be scouting or that these teams really hammer on a certain trait these young guys have in common. Could be that they are more comfortable with giving young guys a bigger workload.

It's also largely teams that aren't afraid to spend on pitching in free agency, and calling these guys up before they are 23 does leave the team open to having them walk while they're still in their primes.

[Old fox]

How tall was Warren Span? Rays reminds as a right version of Span.  I believe that arm injuries start before pitchers reach college level and before starting their pro careers.  Arm injuries in the pro’s may be the result of bad training long before reaching the pro’s.   I appreciate the Twins FO process of handling young pitchers.