TRADE: Twins Send Jorge Polanco to Mariners in Five-Player Deal

[DocBauer]

59 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

There's Julien and Lee who both will need spots, though at different times in 2024.  Polanco, as long-loved as he was, was the piece to trade given his salary, and his recent injury history. 

The best case was always to trade Polanco for prospects, and flip those prospects for major league help.  This deal kinda accomplishes both, or at least gives us placeholders to explore our pitching depth and let it develop.

Too many are acting as if prospects are nonfungible.  Maybe this trade makes it easier to deal prospects to acquire a player like Burnes at the deadline.  

It's an objective good trade. Subjectively, it's sad to see Polanco go as our longest tenured Twin (along side Kepler).

I love Polanco and am sorry to see him go. But I've always said he was still a quality bat and was the logical move to go in a deal. And I have also stated that if the Twins DIDN'T include Polanco in a deal for a quality SP, I could then see him moved for additional help elsewhere, OR, for prospects to replace what we gave up.

Don't have a problem with moving him. I think we're pretty much on the same page there.

I just think the Twins grabbed quantity and not quality to help for 2024. I think it would have made much more sense to trade him, and maybe Severino, Larnach, Schobel, Mercedes, in some combination to acquire a better from Seattle. And the Mariners have enough arms to be able to deal one for Polanco, additional help in Larnach, maybe, a Severino who might be close, and/or a young player for their future and they get to keep their top 3 prospect. Maybe the RP remains part of the deal in a 3 or 4 for 2 deal. I just think they under sold in this deal.

Again, the deal makes more sense and looks better if there is another deal forthcoming. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't like the idea of DeSclafani being handed a starting gig, so I'm presuming that's not automatic.

But to be fair, he had a couple year spike in terms of velocity a few seasons back, but last year it was in line with most seasons, so it doesn't look like he's washed up. Or at least, if he's washed up now, he always was. Looks like his slider is still a good pitch. With his recent injury history, maybe DeSclafani is the one who auditions for a bullpen spot, not Varland.

I'll be really disappointed if the Twins don't still address the top of the rotation.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm just amazed at Flavine having the stones to say, in addition to that $6 m we are going to need an extra A ball reliever.  It's like taking a handful of candy on the way out the door when you close your bank account. 

My local smalltown bank used to have these mini reeses in a basket. I always took a handful on my way out the door.......

[Markdumont25]

This comment will get lost in the shuffle but here goes... I guess I'm valuing Polanco a bit less than the majority of the community but I kinda like the deal. A really solid prospect that, at the very least, could be flipped to provide more immediate help and some decent rotation depth. I I still think we need to do more to replace Sonny but filling out the rotation with a solid back-ender is not nothing.

Polanco has obviously been a nice player for us but I think people are overlooking how unreliable his health has been recently and we already have Julien and have Lee knocking on the door. For better or worse he was expendable and I think this is a reasonable return for him.

 

[KirbyDome89]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If you want to bank on Lee stepping in and producing a 115+ OPS+ be my guest, but considering he was at about 78 in AAA I'm not going to bet on it. DH is a spot in the lineup. I don't care about just 2B.

Or Julien being able to handle LHP. So many thought the Twins could just platoon away their shortcomings last year, and ironically the platooning itself became an issue. Even half a season with Polanco at the top of the lineup would've raised the floor considerably. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

So, are Kepler and Farmer still on the trade block? I would think Kepler more so than Farmer at this point.

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't like the idea of DeSclafani being handed a starting gig, so I'm presuming that's not automatic.

But to be fair, he had a couple year spike in terms of velocity a few seasons back, but last year it was in line with most seasons, so it doesn't look like he's washed up. Or at least, if he's washed up now, he always was. Looks like his slider is still a good pitch. With his recent injury history, maybe DeSclafani is the one who auditions for a bullpen spot, not Varland.

Seems like a few people on here are ready to DFA DeSclafani tomorrow at 8am. 

[William K Johnson]

Who's going to play second base?

[big dog]

Love Polo, but I think his career is ending fast. 300 ABs last year? He hit .190 in the playoffs, sure only six games but they counted. What did we think we could get for him? I might just wait until a few games into spring training at least before declaring the season over. 

[Danchat]

On first glance, I like this trade. While DeSclafani is a classic "#5 starter" who is a 50-50 bet to implode midseason, it was important to add depth there and they didn't have to pay the full $12M or full with Seattle sending money back. Though if I had to bet, I'd put money on him not making it to the end of the year in the rotation.

Just looking at Topa's stats from last year, I am a fan. I have been clamoring for more bullpen additions and this is a quality addition. I've looked through his game logs and I'm really impressed, he wasn't just hid in the 5th-7th inning, he pitched in quite a few high leverage situations (23 holds and 3 saves). In 75 appearances he only gave up a run in 12 of them and multiple runs in just 6. He should be able to fill Pagan's role that was left open. Who knows if he'll be any good next year since he is a reliever who doesn't rely on strikeouts, but I still approve.

I am very surprised we got a top 10 prospect and a borderline Top 100 one to boot. Gonzalez throttled level A at age 19, then struggled when promoted against competition far older than him. With our farm looking somewhat questionable in depth, it's nice to have an addition - not to mention another piece to move for an MLB player if needed.

Bowen appears to be mostly a throw-in, being a 12th round pick who had a decent first year at level A but will already be 23. Maybe he can become a reliever at some point but I don't expect to see him make it to the majors.

Overall, seems like a quality trade that opens a full-time position for Julien to play (and Farmer makes more sense at his salary as the full-time utility INF). As much as I have enjoyed Polanco as a Twin, his health has become a problem and his fielding isn't what it once was. I wish him luck in Seattle.

[Fatbat]

2 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Who's going to play second base?

And who’s on first? 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think the cash is only $6mm, but this does seem like a decent return from a position of depth.   Good luck to you, hip, hip, Jorge!

[harmony55]

A Seattle beat reporter offers her take on the trade:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMydZACP8hc

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

Seems like a few people on here are ready to DFA DeSclafani tomorrow at 8am. 

Yes!! I'll be expect to be seeing it on traderumors by 8:30

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Just now, William K Johnson said:

Who's going to play second base?

A combination of a weird French dude, a guy who just had jaw surgery, the coach's kid on a new team, the younger brother of a guy who used to be really good at baseball, and a bum who got non-tendered by a garbage AL Central team.

[KirbyDome89]

48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is anyone paying attention to the fact Seattle is sending millions to Minnesota before posting?

Didn't the Twins also take on millions due to salary differences? They (the Twins) will still come out ahead, but the money coming back isn't all surplus.

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, Heistyman said:

Gabriel Gonzalez SEA, OF, 20.3 - Gonzalez' numbers dropped off majorly when he got promoted to High-A. He put up a 149 wRC+ with a 13.7% K% in 73 games at Single-A vs. a 21.5% K% and 83 wRC+ in 43 games at High-A. Single-A was his age appropriate level, but it's not a great sign that more advanced pitchers were able to exploit his extremely aggressive plate approach (6.5% BB%). He's not a toolsy guy or imposing figure at 5'10'' with below average speed, and his groundball rates have been on the high side at 53.4% at High-A. He does hit the ball hard with more power likely coming (18 homers in 2023), and he does have an excellent feel to hit, but it's a profile that is lacking upside right now. 

 

Recent scouting report on Gonzalez.

No worries. He should have plenty of time to get those Ks up, not steal bases, and be slow in the outfield. He could fit in well with the Twins current MO. And DeSclafani can be cut by midseason when he tanks as the reversion seems to be on to the filler pitchers that get added to the mix (no need to have surplus of talent like Houston and actually get someone like Hader when you already have a great closer you fleeced from.....). And Topa didn't even really make it to the show until 32 to stay, so folks can call him a kid even if this will be his 33 y-o season. He has one and only one good MLB year, last year only, and that is a half a year more than Jorge Lopez had! And Bowen - they always need to fill minor league rosters. The most entertainment I see here is watching posters misspell DeSclafani in so many different ways. I guess it is only fitting to worry about injuries if the player is a homer (Polanco and Arraez) and a great value, but not if a $200 million new guy that has an excuse for something year to year (wonder what it will be this year) is signed to eat up the salary so you can't even supposedly afford what the rest of baseball considers a great value at 10.5 mil. Do they even save the precious $ we are hearing is necessary? Julien is no lock in his 2nd season, but he can watch the called third strike from lefties if they even let him hit against lefties without straining himself for the righties. 

Nevermind. Ignore all that. I hate underwhelming trades that don't improve a competing team this year. It is my problem. I just need to like strangers more, I guess. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Eh, these value charts should be taken with a massive grain of salt.

Enough salt to cover I90 to Seattle 

[stringer bell]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is that arm available from a team that wants Polanco? No idea, but I'm hard pressed to find such a team right now. 

I didn't want to like this post, but that is exactly where I've been for weeks--the teams willing to trade good controllable starting pitching are not going to take on the salary of Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler.  Teams that want Polanco or Kepler might be willing to give back prospects, but they aren't going to part with a #1-#3 starter who is controllable. 

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

I was just as wrong. We all tend to overvalue the players on our favorite team. From my perspective* the Mariners overpaid for Jorge Polanco by giving up a Top 80 prospect and a solid reliever. 

At any rate I am grateful for the civil and meaningful discourse on Twins Daily.

Jorge Polanco has a new fan.

* and FWIW the perspective of Baseball Trade Values

This season will tell where Polanco is headed. This was the first time in several years that he did not head into the season behind because of rehabbing a surgery. We cannot predict anything. George Kirby could blow out his arm in March and I sure hope he never gets injured. Stuff happens.

I don't know how closely you follow the Mariner's minor leagues. Guys like Young, Ford, Celesten, and Adcock are all better players from my view than Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a ton of questions popping up already when he moved to A+ ball. He didn't look real good but there is still time. I would feel better if the Twins had received Ford in return. I do think Topa had a good year last year, but it was just one year. There is no real history with Topa. Unless a miracle happens DeSclafani is pretty much done. It was common knowledge that Dipoto would move him somehow. 

 

Polanco is not old unless we are to believe his past injuries are permanent. He could be an All Star this summer for Seattle. I believe that Seattle easily won this trade for 2024, and it doesn't even seem close. A few national sites are sure wondering. It looks a little like a mini salary dump with the money paying half of ADe's contract. Oh well, good luck to Seattle.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Well, the Twins need a guy capable of eating some innings? Can DeSclafani do it? Leaving Varland in the wings if Paddack breaks down, perhaps. It fills the need for a fifth starter and depth for the rotation pushing Varland down a notch and letting us hope Festa, Canterino, maybe even Dobnak or Woods Richardson will be part of the answer as the season rolls along.

Another bullpen arm for the 8th position in the pen. Allows the Twins to option out a couple of current roster guys, if need be.

Four players for one. Polanco had no position if Julien is the second baseman and you are looking for a place for Lee going forwards. Doesn't really add payroll to the Twins, either. But didn't cut payroll at all.

Two prospects, neither of whom need to be added to the 40-man anytime soon.

You aren't entirely wrong here, good sir.

But an ankle injury...if I'm trusting reports I've read...that wiped out his 2022, and an elbow injury that ruined a promising start to his 2023 season, leaves "innings eater" as a hope only. 

Topa, unless a tweak raises his game, is a late blooming 32yo 6th inning guy, not an 8th inning guy. Now there's value in that, but it's doubtful as a difference maker.

And you're right about the $ as Scalfini and Polanco aren't that different in payroll, but the Mariners are also sending the Twins $ to offset the difference. So they get a 2 for 1 $ wise, and maybe even save a few $M. So the payroll is probably cut a little. 

And you're correct about the 2 prospects not needing to bad added any time soon. One is highly regarded, the other is a throw in.

But wouldn't a couple 10-20 ranked Twins prospects WITH Polanco for a better arm been a better move?

[Andy_Twins]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I don't disagree with your basic premise. And I won't deny that as good as Polanco has been, he's missed some time with injury.

But let's turn this around. Gonzalez is a top prospect for Seattle and a top 100 prospect. So he's not all that different than E Rodriguez in overall rankings, or age for that matter. Would you trade a 5th starter equivalent, E Rodriguez and maybe Alcala, plus $ for Polanco? And I'm asking as a huge fan of Polanco's.

This just feels like the Twins got quantity instead of quality. Gonzalez doesn't help for years. I'd rather they include someone in the 10-20 prospect range to go with Polanco for one of their better young arms, and maybe even toss in a couple $M if Seattle demanded it. 

I just don't see any upside to this deal at all. Not unless something else is still coming.

What makes you think that Seattle would have accepted Polo + someone in the 10-20 range for one of their SPs?  I am thinking they would have wanted Polo + one of the top three prospects + more.

[old nurse]

From SB Nation fansite for Seattle

Darren Bowen, RHP

Age: 23 / B/T: R/R / Drafted: 2022 / Final level in 2023: A / MLB ETA: 2026

After being drafted in the 13th round out of UNC-Pembroke, Darren Bowen started his career a bit later than his fellow draftees after rehabbing an injury from college. Upon his debut, he took the league by storm and posted some eye-catching numbers out of the gate. With a mid 90’s fastball that gets ridiculous ride and a dynamite slider that makes batters look foolish, Bowen has some nasty stuff that tracks to play at the next level. He worked as a starter for Modesto, though much of the year was spent building up his innings and no start eclipsed six innings. He does walk a fair amount of batters, but it’s not an overwhelming problem that prohibits him from starting. Seattle seems to view him as a starter and he will be given the opportunity to do so, but an eventual move to the bullpen is not out of the question. Should this change be necessary, the stuff will absolutely play and he’d immediately be a potential leverage reliever. He’s an arm to watch for this upcoming season; he’s already attracting a lot of attention outside the system among pitching wonks for his pitch data. The one thing holding us back from ranking him more highly is needing to see if he can harness that command better in longer stretches.

22

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Danchat said:

On first glance, I like this trade. While DeSclafani is a classic "#5 starter" who is a 50-50 bet to implode midseason, it was important to add depth there and they didn't have to pay the full $12M or full with Seattle sending money back. Though if I had to bet, I'd put money on him not making it to the end of the year in the rotation.

Just looking at Topa's stats from last year, I am a fan. I have been clamoring for more bullpen additions and this is a quality addition. I've looked through his game logs and I'm really impressed, he wasn't just hid in the 5th-7th inning, he pitched in quite a few high leverage situations (23 holds and 3 saves). In 75 appearances he only gave up a run in 12 of them and multiple runs in just 6. He should be able to fill Pagan's role that was left open. Who knows if he'll be any good next year since he is a reliever who doesn't rely on strikeouts, but I still approve.

I am very surprised we got a top 10 prospect and a borderline Top 100 one to boot. Gonzalez throttled level A at age 19, then struggled when promoted against competition far older than him. With our farm looking somewhat questionable in depth, it's nice to have an addition - not to mention another piece to move for an MLB player if needed.

Bowen appears to be mostly a throw-in, being a 12th round pick who had a decent first year at level A but will already be 23. Maybe he can become a reliever at some point but I don't expect to see him make it to the majors.

Overall, seems like a quality trade that opens a full-time position for Julien to play (and Farmer makes more sense at his salary as the full-time utility INF). As much as I have enjoyed Polanco as a Twin, his health has become a problem and his fielding isn't what it once was. I wish him luck in Seattle.

Bowen has two pitches. I'd make him a RP and promote him aggressively.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Eh, these value charts should be taken with a massive grain of salt.

After every trade, somebody posts these values, and they always seem to be a big win in the Twins favor.

With all the trading this front office has done over the years, and all this future value accruing over time, the Twins must be forecast for like 230 wins this year! 🙂

[Muppet]

It is sad to see, but I agree with this trade. This team really does need a crappy pitcher and a bunch of good luck charms more than it needs Polanco. I just wish it had been Kepler.

[LastOnePicked]

It seems Falvey/Levine are addicted to trading second basemen. Look out, Julien.

Jokes aside, I kinda like this trade. Polanco has been hit with the injury bug pretty regularly recently, and Gonzalez could help offset a SP deal including one of our prominent OF prospects.

I hope Polanco has a tremendous year in Seattle. But I like that the FO is willing to take these kinds of calculated risks.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

14 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

A Seattle beat reporter offers her take on the trade:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMydZACP8hc

 

Excellent contribution, thank you for digging it up. Shannon Drayer is no ordinary talking head. She said (paraphrasing) the Twins had been pushing for Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo all offseason, but the Mariners would not budge on that. That the Mariners really have loved Polanco for a long time and this fixes two positions for them, 2B and 3B. Also that they didn't want to part with Topa. At first glance I thought the same thing, Topa is really the best piece of this bunch coming back. 

Thanks again.

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, Markdumont25 said:

This comment will get lost in the shuffle but here goes... I guess I'm valuing Polanco a bit less than the majority of the community but I kinda like the deal. A really solid prospect that, at the very least, could be flipped to provide more immediate help and some decent rotation depth. I I still think we need to do more to replace Sonny but filling out the rotation with a solid back-ender is not nothing.

Polanco has obviously been a nice player for us but I think people are overlooking how unreliable his health has been recently and we already have Julien and have Lee knocking on the door. For better or worse he was expendable and I think this is a reasonable return for him.

 

I appreciate your positive voice here. There are a few things to consider though. First the Twins lose a guy who bats either 2nd or 3rd in their lineup. Only good players hit in those spots. Right? Second, the pitcher is not as good as our current bottom of the rotation arm or even (according TheAthletic's Eno Sarris) Simeon Woods Richardson. So not someone to use as a starter really. Third, quality depth is always a good thing to have available. There is a DH to rotate players. 

Again, thanks for the positive addition but this trade looks to hurt the team for the coming season.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I didn't want to like this post, but that is exactly where I've been for weeks--the teams willing to trade good controllable starting pitching are not going to take on the salary of Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler.  Teams that want Polanco or Kepler might be willing to give back prospects, but they aren't going to part with a #1-#3 starter who is controllable. 

Exactly. Teams usually trade elite players for elite prospects/players. Players that are average but have high values (because of team control) usually require a package of average prospects/players. The Twins did a great job by acquiring a top-100 prospect with an elite ceiling that can be used in a package to acquire a top-of-the-rotation arm.

As far a DeSclafani is concerned, he can slide right into Dallas Keuchel's role from the end of last year, and could provide a lot of value in July when half of the rotation is on the IL and you have a stretch of 25 games in 26 days. Or, he could get traded to a rebuilding team for a 40-grade prospect. Either way, Gonzalez and Topa are both great assets that will improve this organization, both this year and beyond.