The Twins Seem Weirdly Confident They Can Help Wild Pitchers Throw Strikes

[Nick Nelson]

The best stuff in the world doesn't do much for a pitcher if he can't throw it over the plate. The Twins are aware of this, but nevertheless, their offseason bullpen strategy seems focused on adding erratic yet electric arms.

Image courtesy of William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

Even before they openly laid out their self-imposed payroll restrictions for this offseason, it was reasonable to guess that the Twins front office wasn't going to invest heavily in bullpen additions. Because... they never do. Two offseasons ago, they made one low-wattage addition to the relief corps on a major-league deal (Joe Smith). Last offseason, they made zero.

When trying to acquire relief pitchers at a discount (or on a non-guaranteed contract, or off waivers), you're going to need to accept an added level of volatility beyond what the position already entails. The Twins are accustomed to this. They love to try their hand with talented yet flawed relievers discarded by other organizations, and it appears they're at it again this winter.

Their three latest bullpen acquisitions share a clear and consistent profile: big arms with high-powered stuff and really significant control problems. It is apparent that the Twins and their coaches believe they can help these guys find the strike zone.

First, there was the signing of righthander A.J. Alexy to a minor-league deal before the holidays. I wrote about this move to bring back a pitcher whom the club rostered for a few weeks the previous offseason, pondering what they saw in him. Alexy's struggles with walks last year were beyond extreme: he issued a staggering 41 free passes in 21 innings at Triple A. For his career, he has yielded 5.6 free passes per nine innings pitched in the minors and 26 walks in 30 major-league innings.

Okay, a minor-league signing. A shot in the dark. The Twins have little to lose with what is seemingly a low-stakes longshot.

Then, they signed former Royals reliever Josh Staumont to a major-league deal. Here, too, the risk was relatively minimal--his salary is barely over the minimum at $950,000--but he is now near the front of the line for an Opening Day bullpen spot, despite his own recent troubles with throwing strikes.

The hard-throwing Staumont has always been a little wild, but at his best, he kept the walks somewhat in check and offset their negative impact with effectiveness elsewhere. From 2019 through 2021, the right-hander posted a 2.93 ERA in 110 innings, despite averaging 4.3 walks per nine frames.

In the past two years, his control has spiraled and his results have tanked. In 57 ⅔ innings between 2022 and 2023, Staumont issued 42 walks (6.6 BB/9). In November, he was non-tendered by the lowly Royals, which is a striking vote of no-confidence from the organization that raised him. Minnesota's leadership evidently sees a path to getting him right.

Most recently, we have Thursday's waiver claim: Ryan Jensen, who has captivated evaluators with his arm talent but been held back by--you guessed it--his control. The 26-year-old has yet to reach the majors, but has averaged 5.8 walks per nine innings in 215 minor-league innings. His struggles in this regard were especially profound last year, when he issued 54 walks in 64 ⅓ innings (7.6 BB/9) between Double A and Triple A. At the same time, he also notched 78 strikeouts, with only six homers allowed.

Each of these relief pitchers has plainly evident upside that seems almost impossible to reach in their current state. It's an interesting direction for a team whose pitching staff thrived last year largely because of their strength in this area; Minnesota's 2.7 BB/9 rate ranked fourth in the majors. I'm very curious what their pitching brain trust has in mind for these hurlers.

Notably, there is evidence in each case that mechanical tweaks could be part of the solution. Repeating his delivery has been a known focus for Alexy over the years. Staumont was sent to Triple A at the start of last season to work on "refining his mechanics and improving his pitch selection."

“A lot of it was just kind of tweaking little things here and there, trying to make sure that we’re being as consistent as possible,” Staumont said at the time.

Jensen also has been mechanically workshopped by his coaches to try and achieve better control of the strike zone. This included time spent on the development list in 2022 to try and shorten his arm stroke. "The primary focus right now is getting that delivery right. If he can do that and in turn be in the zone or at least around the zone more often, the stuff will certainly play," wrote The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma regarding Jensen prior to last season.

It's an interesting gamble by the Twins, and it sets up a challenge for their staff in spring training. If coaches and technology can find a way to help even one of these three pitchers solve their overwhelming control problems, the Twins could really have something. But the Nuke LaLoosh profile is ubiquitous in baseball, and these oft-attempted projects generally have very low success rates.

We'll see what the Twins have up their sleeves.

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[Dman]

I agree Nick and I don't feel like they have had much success with these types of arms in the past.  They traded LaMonte Wade for Shaun Anderson whom they let go that very same season as they couldn't get him to throw strikes. No one else was able to help him either.  The Twins tried to get McGill going and his 1.59 WHIP finally improved a little when he went to Milwaukee, but the Twins never fixed him.  They tried fixing Vallimont for years and never could.  They also never got Strotman fixed either. I bet if you dig there are even more arms like this that never panned out.

I get it.  , Hard throwers are hard to come by and a lot of them struggle with control, but it feels ;like about 90% of the time nothing changes.  They are who they are.  They just don't get much better no matter how many teams try and change them.

It also seems odd that in the draft they select most pitchers based on their control and not velocity at all.  I always thought mainly because it was easier to add velocity than control.  In the grand scheme the guy they recently picked up can go on waivers if he doesn't work out and all were low risk financial moves.  It's not a huge deal. It just seems odd to me that these are types of arms they would focus on grabbing.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I don't mind any of the fliers they have taken this off season. They do no harm. But on the other hand it would be nice to see a move that moves the needle back towards the Full mark. Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Taylor, Solano all gone. Alexy, Jensen, Staumont all that has been brought in. Right now nobody can say we are a better team, we are noticibely worse.

[PseudoSABR]

Thow enough darts, maybe you'll hit something.  These moves are fine, and there's little risk and seeing if they can develop through the Spring, if not cut bait. 

[Dave Borton]

Excellent article. Well written on relatively obscure info which I wouldn't have without this kind of story and writing.

Piques my interest to see how they do in ST. Appreciate it, db

[Brandon]

I like this strategy.  Our bullpen is actually ok as constructed.  The hope was to get  starter to bump Varland to the pen so we have another power arm and a reliable one.  Now its can we develop one of these guys to be that guy when we need that extra arm the most?  

Last season it was Cole who has an ok floor but low ceiling in the last spot in the pen and he went long stretches without pitching in a game.  This is a good time for someone to be working out the kinks and developing control.  but with the other spots ok. I mean we have the following in the pen already:

Duran, Jax, Stewart, Theilbar

Alcala, Funderburk

then choose from Headrick, Winder, Balazovich, Henriquez and Staumont.  

Ryan Jenson and AJ Alexy can work their way up in AAA.  

We have had success in the past.  Look at Stewart as #1, then we had DeLeon until he threw his arm instead of the ball.  

I think this works because the other 7 spots in the pen are at least solid.  Winder seems to be the guy for that 7th spot.  Having a 4.00 ERA from your 7th reliever is not bad. 

This gives us the best chance to internally develop that potential lights out reliever at minimum cost and without costing the team wins too as the last reliever gets brought in to save the others from working in losses typically or in blow outs. The goal is to have him be fully established and on top of his game a month or two before the playoffs to show he is ready to contribute.   

[Jocko87]

57 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Thow enough darts, maybe you'll hit something.  These moves are fine, and there's little risk and seeing if they can develop through the Spring, if not cut bait. 

And darts with options gives them time to work on it.  Low risk, high upside and they believe in their pitching program to maximize. I’m pretty confident they will get one to hit.

Timing is interesting though. Lotta bullets just to replace Pagan.  I’m wondering what this says about the Winders and Sands types going forward.  

Also in conjunction with the 6 man rotation article what does this say about plans for the rotation?  Relievers with options are needed if you are expecting a lot of 5 inning starts.  I believe Varland is a starter out of camp and this trend would seem to solidify that.

[CRF]

Sorry, but I'm not a fan of looking for diamonds in the manure pile. These kinds of moves are underwhelming, to say the least. 

[Brandon]

4 minutes ago, CRF said:

Sorry, but I'm not a fan of looking for diamonds in the manure pile. These kinds of moves are underwhelming, to say the least. 

I think they are underwhelming if we are looking to fill an important role.  getting both Bundy and Archer for the rotation when we were looking for #2-3 starters is not fun.  trying to take a high ceiling player with issues and stashing them in low leverage situation is different.  That player could be another Brock Stewart.  signing a hole plugger with issues like Joey Gallo is not fun.  Because of how likely he is to not fully rebound.  signing Brock Stewart who came out of nowhere to be a vital part of our pen or Theilbar now those signings were fun.  

[FlyingFinn]

I like these moves. Very low risk. Just don't forget to look closely at our own pitchers who are about to breakout and have a good year in the pen - thinking of Cano and Coulumbe in 2023.

[PatPfund]

I don't mind a move or two like this, but it is irritating that this is all they seem to be coming up with (so far).

And if dollars are really short, wasting a million on a garbage arm really doesn't do much for me. Supposedly $6 million is too much to keep Farmer, but he would have far more than 6 times the positive impact of any of these pitchers. A million is also roughly a quarter of what they paid MAT last year, and an extra OF could still be on the shopping list.

This looks to be more about staffing the Saints than the Twins, and these are the type of players you could probably add a few days before Spring Training. Be nice if they'd buy the important stuff first instead of finding themselves a million short on an important player, because they spent it on someone they release in late March.

 

[h2oface]

Stewart could have had a career year, er, 1/3 year. Theilbar's time could very well be up with Father Time's ruthlessness. He has always seemed like fool's gold to me as he has been surprising. Folks keep penciling them in like they are sure things, just like they are Paddack and Varland right now. To try to make your team better by selecting and adding hopes and players that have truly been given up on by teams that truly believed in them instead of pitchers that have proven their value is why the Twins are always hoping to get better rather than getting better. Now is the time to charge, not back off. Not a whole lot of vision shown by the FO. 

[DocBauer]

I have zero problem with any of these 3 additions, and whatever other milb signings are probably yet to come. In my 50yrs of watching baseball, every single year there are guys...rotation or pen...who "figure it out" somehow and turn out to be good to occasionally very good. It could be a health issue that held them back...or interrupted their career...never finding that extra pitch, or struggling with and finally finding some control.

I don't like the initial idea of Staumont and Jensen being added to the 40 man. BUT, there are 2 spots still left, someone on the 40 man is probably still moved to create another opening or two, and these signings are inexpensive and easy to DFA at any moment and possibly pass through waivers and be assigned to AAA.

Our current FO has done pretty well in these kinds of moves previously. I'd dare say most of these kinds of moves...which EVERY TEAM MAKES...never turn out. But you also do get a 1yr of Wissler, or multiple years of a good arm like Thielbar, and potentially multiple good years of Stewart now that he's healthy again.

The FO guessed VERY RIGHT last offseason. They had Stewart already in the fold in 2022, IIRC, waiting to get right and were rewarded big time! And as previously mentioned, DeLeon was looking pretty solid before his elbow gave out. But they also made a couple HUGE mistakes, IMO, when they DIDN'T hold on to Coulombe and Jeff Hoffman. Coulombe had his BEST results as a Twin, was looking good in ST, and was let go for no logical reason. And he went on to have a good 2023 with the Orioles. He's NOT a difference maker, but he's solid. And we could have used him last year. Hoffman had a great ST and seemed like a lock to make the club. INEXPLICABLY, he was released and had the best year of his career with the Phillies. 

If you uncover a diamond in the rough, KEEP HIM! Both Coulombe and Hoffman would have filled roles in the Twins 2023 pen. One as an extra, solid but not great, lefty middle guy, and one as a very good 7th inning arm to deepen the back end of the pen.

I like our FO, but they BLEW IT on 2 arms they should have kept.

As to the OP's basic discussion of trying to fix control issues, I will admit to having NO wisdom as to how to fix such issues. But it does occur to me that if the coaches and system are in place to tweak deliveries in such a way as to add a pitch...which we've seen...and increase velocity...which we've seen...it does seem to me that the same coaching and structure might just take one of these arms and get their mechanics "right" and repeatable, to harness better control. And maybe what I'm really doing is asking the question: "if they can successfully add pitches and improve velocity, might they also add control"?

Staumont has actually been successful. Some of his issues might  e mechanical, but maybe some were health related. I'm more intrigued by him as a Stewart comp than I am Alexy and Jensen. But if even ONE of the three figures it out, it's a potentially big add to the front of the pen at the least.

And honestly, are these three signings much different than Balazovic, Winder, Sands, Alcala, and Henriquez finally adapting, growing, and figuring it out? It's just three more arms to deepen the pool. The entire pool of options widens the chance you get 1 or 2 to actually be good.

[chpettit19]

I don't know if they're "weirdly confident" in their ability to get more control out of these guys or if they are just willing to take fliers on guys and see. If they were signing them to multi-million dollar deals I'd feel more like it was some sort of confidence in their abilities. None of these guys were given anything resembling "we're counting on him" type deal. Any or all of them could be sent packing at any moment. This doesn't look like any sort of extreme confidence, but simply taking fliers and seeing what they can do. None of their salaries are stopping them from bringing in anyone else. No harm in getting guys in your building to see what you can do with them.

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Right now nobody can say we are a better team, we are noticibely worse.

Are they trying to get better or just trying to get cheaper?

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The entire pool of options widens the chance you get 1 or 2 to actually be good.

Creating a big pool is the easy part. Figuring out the 1 or 2 who will be good without giving them 30 innings is the hard part.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know if they're "weirdly confident" in their ability to get more control out of these guys or if they are just willing to take fliers on guys and see. If they were signing them to multi-million dollar deals I'd feel more like it was some sort of confidence in their abilities. None of these guys were given anything resembling "we're counting on him" type deal. Any or all of them could be sent packing at any moment. This doesn't look like any sort of extreme confidence, but simply taking fliers and seeing what they can do. None of their salaries are stopping them from bringing in anyone else. No harm in getting guys in your building to see what you can do with them.

As you know, every team including the Dodgers make these types of signings. Some teams like the rays have hit on more than other teams but they all do it so why would anyone assume it's a product of confidence as opposed to what it is ... looking for something for nothing.  Why wouldn't we want our team to get something for nothing.  I know you know this.  Just chiming in on the logic you have already provided.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I think between the limited success of Stewart and to a certain extent De Leon, I think they feel confident they can fix 1 to 2 and find a quality reliever.   Wish we would have kept Cano and been unable to unlock him but what do I know.  Lets pull Wild thing out of retirement and put all 3 of these pitchers in the bullpen it should be entertaining.  I do think they will have moderate success at likely find 1 decent reliever option between AJ Alexy, Staumont and Jensen, even though I think Staumont is more of a play for 2024 than 2023.   In either case hopefully 1 of these arms can become another Brock Stewart.  Someone with elite talent but never been able to unlock it.  

[Riverbrian]

Coaches can't turn President Biden into Nolan Ryan but coaches can turn Nolan Ryan into Nolan Ryan. 

Natural talents like a big fastball is always a great starting point to work with. 

 

 

 

 

  

 

[jdgoin]

This headline almost made me spit out my coffee this morning.

On 1/5/2024 at 3:24 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I think between the limited success of Stewart and to a certain extent De Leon, I think they feel confident they can fix 1 to 2 and find a quality reliever.   Wish we would have kept Cano and been unable to unlock him but what do I know.  Lets pull Wild thing out of retirement and put all 3 of these pitchers in the bullpen it should be entertaining.  I do think they will have moderate success at likely find 1 decent reliever option between AJ Alexy, Staumont and Jensen, even though I think Staumont is more of a play for 2024 than 2023.   In either case hopefully 1 of these arms can become another Brock Stewart.  Someone with elite talent but never been able to unlock it.  

The difference between Stewart and De Leon vs the most recent three is Stewart and De Leon were starters with sufficient control numbers in the MiL. Alexy, Jensen, and Staumont have always struggled with command and control.

[jdgoin]

This headline almost made me spit out my coffee this morning. Nice one @Nick Nelson!

[Doctor Gast]

How has the Twins done so far with correcting wild pitchers? Do they really know what they are doing? Or are they just poking & hoping? The latter doesn't appeal to me but the prior does because MIA's Cabrera has great stuff but they are about to give up on him because of his wildness. He could be a great project on the cheap.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

How has the Twins done so far with correcting wild pitchers? Do they really know what they are doing? Or are they just poking & hoping? The latter doesn't appeal to me but the prior does because MIA's Cabrera has great stuff but they are about to give up on him because of his wildness. He could be a great project on the cheap.

I only looked at two pitchers who came to mind, Brock Stewart and Matt Wisler, and at least for them, the success didn't come from reducing walks appreciably but from avoiding the longball.  The latter is a "skill" that fluctuates a lot from season to season for many relievers (*cough* small sample size *cough*), so I would want to invest more research (which I will not) before drawing much of a conclusion.